Conflicts of Interest

They don't exist — but they get paid. And they leave real front lines empty. In this Halloween special, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills breaks down the phenomenon of modern ghost armies: not spirits, but fraud. Commanders list soldiers who never served, pocket their salaries, and report full strength while military units are hollowed out. From Yemen and Iraq to Russia and China, how does military payroll fraud work, why does it persist, and what can ACLED data tell us about where these hollow forces are most vulnerable to collapse? Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.

What’s really driving the world’s conflicts? What are we missing? And what questions should we be asking? Every week, and sometimes in between, Conflicts of Interest goes beyond the headlines to challenge assumptions, unpack the data, and make sense of what’s happening around the world. Next week marks our 50th episode! From the biggest international crises to the stories that barely make the news, Conflicts of Interest brings together ACLED CEO Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, a world-leading expert in conflict data, and journalist Bron Mills, armed with endless curiosity, plenty of questions, and the occasional questionable metaphor. Follow and share Conflicts of Interest wherever you get your podcasts, and catch up on all episodes now. And we want to hear from you! Have a question you'd like answered or a topic you'd like us to cover? Let us know in the comments — it might just make it into a future episode. Streaming now, wherever you get your podcasts. Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.

France averages 20 protests a day. Right now it's 65 — and 1 in 4 is a riot. No spin. Just the data. Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills explain why French school funding protests turned into 43 days of national unrest across 800 locations, with mass arrests, shuttered schools, and Yellow Vests back on the streets. Why austerity, debt, and collapsing public services broke Macron's centrist bargain — and why Le Pen benefits without answers. Plus: Yemen’s renewed Houthi-Saudi fighting and $6B Suez hit, and Ethiopia’s three-track push on TPLF, Eritrea, and sea access. Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.

Houthi missiles are hitting Saudi airports as Ethiopia and Eritrea move closer to war. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh, Bron Mills and Dr. Jalale Getachew Birru examine more than 100 Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia in just 30 days, including attacks on airports, and the escalating threat of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. From the Houthis' campaign against Saudi Arabia and threats to Red Sea shipping to Eritrean troops entering Tigray, Ethiopia's ambitions over the port of Assab, and Egypt's growing influence in the Horn of Africa, the conversation explores how these conflicts are connected — and what could happen next. Why won't the Houthis back down? Could Ethiopia invade Eritrea? And is a wider regional war becoming inevitable? Plus: Israel and Gaza: Has the war changed the world, and how is it shaping political debate? Ukraine: Russian strikes target power plants and energy infrastructure. US and Russia: Trump faces bipartisan criticism over Russian diesel purchases. France: Hackers manipulate supermarket refrigeration systems, causing fires and food losses. Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.

Ethiopia’s forces have retaken Mekelle — but the fighting in the north is far from over, as regional relationships are also shifting across the Horn of Africa and Red Sea, with Egypt, Eritrea, and Sudan renewing ties. Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined again by ACLED’s Dr. Jalale Getachew Birru to unpack what comes next: the future of the TPLF and TDF, Eritrea’s role in the conflict, Ethiopia’s ambitions for access to the Red Sea, and the growing risk of fighting crossing Ethiopia’s borders. They look at the wider regional picture, from Egypt and Sudan to Yemen, Somalia, and the Gulf, and ask how a confrontation between Ethiopia and Eritrea could pull in competing powers across the Red Sea. Plus: UK security: What the withdrawal of US aircraft from RAF Fairford could tell us about confidence in Britain’s ability to protect critical military infrastructure — and respond to unconventional security threats. Iran: With the Strait of Hormuz returning toward normal operations, has Tehran lost one of its biggest sources of leverage — and where does the conflict go from here? Saudi Arabia and the Houthis: As Riyadh considers renewed support for forces fighting the Houthis, can a new counter-offensive actually shift the balance in Yemen? Track the conflict in Ethiopia with ACLED’s latest data at acleddata.com Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.

Fighting is escalating across northern Ethiopia. Is the seven-group anti-government alliance already falling apart? Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED's Jalale Getachew Birru to unpack the TPLF offensive, divisions within the rebel coalition, and what Eritrea's and Egypt's involvement means for the next phase of the conflict in Ethiopia. We break down why the Djibouti trade corridor — Ethiopia's vital economic lifeline — could shape what happens next. This episode provides data-driven analysis of the Tigray war resurgence, Eritrea-Ethiopia tensions, Abiy Ahmed’s strategy, and the regional struggle involving Eritrea, Egypt, and Tigray news from northern Ethiopia. No spin. Just the data. PLUS: UK terror threat: What the RAF Fairford arrests could tell us about how foreign states test British security — and whether UK institutions are equipped to respond to less conventional threats. Iran: With Strait of Hormuz traffic reportedly back towards pre-war capacity, has Iran lost one of its biggest sources of leverage in the conflict? Saudi Arabia and the Houthis: Why Riyadh is turning to Israel and the UAE for help — and what Abu Dhabi could demand in return for its support. Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.

In this emergency episode, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED Senior Analyst for East Africa Dr Jalale Getachew Birru to unpack the sudden surge in fighting in northern Ethiopia. What has changed? Who is fighting whom? And is Ethiopia heading back towards full-scale war? They break down the latest developments in Tigray, the new alliances forming against Abiy Ahmed’s government, and why the fighting cannot be understood in isolation. From Eritrea and Egypt to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the Houthis, Ethiopia’s conflict is increasingly tied to a much bigger struggle for influence and control around the Red Sea. This is expert-led conflict analysis connecting what is happening on the ground in Tigray to the regional power struggle that could determine what happens next. Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.

Trump, Cartels, and Fuel Prices: Noise or News? There’s a lot happening in the world. But how much of it actually matters? This week, Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills introduce Noise or News? — a new game sorting the headlines worth paying attention to from those making more noise than impact. They bounce around the world: from a new opposition coalition in Ethiopia and the rise of Germany’s AfD, to Mexico’s changing cartel violence, Trump’s latest fight with the media, and protests over fuel prices. Plus: what 200 days of war with Iran have actually changed, why Saudi Arabia is struggling with the Houthis, whether sanctions against the International Criminal Court really matter, and the slightly stranger question of whether Narendra Modi managed to give world leaders food poisoning. And in What Fresh Hell Awaits?, Clionadh returns to Ethiopia, where the latest political maneuvering may be less important than what it signals about what comes next. Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.

Who are the Houthis and what do they want? As the Houthis advance in Yemen and Saudi Arabia takes missile and drone hits, the forces meant to stop them are collapsing — with some units reportedly made up of nearly 80% ghost soldiers who exist on paper but not on the battlefield. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills go beyond the headlines to explain what is actually happening in Yemen: who the Houthis (Ansar Allah) are, what they want, why Iran doesn't simply control them, and why Saudi Arabia is struggling to find anyone willing to help. We break down Houthi goals and territorial gains, Saudi Arabia's security dilemma, the limits of drones and airpower, and the growing problem of paper armies that can't deliver on the ground — and what Yemen tells us about a much bigger shift in modern warfare. Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills go beyond the headlines to break down extreme violence worldwide. From cartel massacres in Mexico to gang killings in Haiti's Kenshoff, Houthi attacks around Yemen and Saudi Arabia, renewed Russian strikes on Kyiv, Ukraine, to protest crackdowns in Iran — why does some violence dominate the news while far deadlier crises are ignored? We cover: Why Ukraine ranks #1 for fatalities, but India, Nigeria, Brazil, and Mexico lead for population exposure to political violence. Why Honduras, Guatemala, Ecuador, Cameroon, and the Philippines have the highest civilian share of deaths from gangs and organized crime. Why extreme violence works — group cohesion, kidnapping economics, and being "beyond negotiation." Plus: migration battles in the UK and US, anti-AfD protests in Germany, Israel's West Bank operation, and why public empathy is totally exhausted. Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.

The US is using missiles and air-defence interceptors across multiple fronts — from the war with Iran and protecting bases in the Middle East to years of support for Ukraine. But can American weapons production keep up with demand? In this episode of Conflicts of Interest , ACLED President and CEO Clionadh Raleigh joins Bron Mills to ask whether the US is really running short of missiles — and what dwindling stocks could mean for Ukraine, Europe and American deterrence against Russia and China. They deconstruct why sophisticated interceptors take so long and cost so much to produce, how cheap drone swarms are changing the economics of warfare, and why critical minerals are becoming increasingly important to military power. Plus: the latest US-Iran exchanges, the economic pressure building inside Iran, and why Clionadh believes drones, missiles, AI and the ability to outproduce your opponents could define the next era of state-on-state conflict. Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.

Donald Trump says the US has “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is threatening ships, US interests and countries that support Washington. The Houthis are putting pressure on Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping. And cyber attacks are bringing the conflict much closer to home. ACLED President and CEO Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills discuss who really controls one of the world’s most important shipping routes — and whether the Gulf is becoming the centre of a much bigger global struggle. They discuss Trump’s promised “economic D-Day” against Iran, Tehran’s strategy, cyber warfare and attacks on civilian infrastructure, the Houthis’ growing leverage, and why future wars may be fought as much through businesses, energy systems and global trade as on traditional battlefields. Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.

Who can still rely on the United States — and which countries are building new alliances instead? From Donald Trump’s approach to Kim Jong Un and South Korea, to the growing partnership between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, the global alliance map is shifting. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, prof Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills connect the dots between some of the biggest geopolitical developments shaping the world: Russia’s threats against Britain, the war in Ukraine, shifting US–Israel relations, tensions with Iran, and the rise of increasingly influential middle powers. From Trump, Putin and Kim Jong Un to Netanyahu, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, this episode looks beyond individual relationships to ask who is gaining influence, who is losing it — and what the emerging global order could look like. Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.

India’s ‘Cockroach Janta Party’ protest movement has claimed a major victory, forcing the resignation of the country’s education minister — the first cabinet minister to resign under public pressure in 12 years of Narendra Modi’s government. ACLED’s Pearl Pandya joins Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills to ask why this movement succeeded where others have failed, whether India’s young protesters can turn their first victory into lasting political change, and why they deliberately distanced themselves from the Gen Z movements seen elsewhere in South Asia. They also look across the border to Pakistan, where rising Islamist militancy, tensions with Afghanistan and a resurgent Baloch separatist movement reveal a very different relationship between protest, repression and political violence. Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.

Two years after Venezuela’s disputed 2024 election — and months after Nicolás Maduro was removed from power — who is really running the country? Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED’s Tiziano Breda to trace how the contested election helped pave the way for Maduro’s downfall and examine the uneasy system that has replaced him. Delcy Rodríguez remains in power, the opposition is still waiting for a transition, and Washington holds enormous leverage over Venezuela’s oil industry. They also ask what the US actually wants from Venezuela, whether elections are coming, and how June’s devastating earthquakes could upset an already fragile political balance, from fuelling public anger to creating new opportunities for armed groups. And with billions of dollars in Venezuelan oil revenues reportedly passing through a US-controlled system, one question looms particularly large: where is the money going? Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.

What does Ukraine’s reported strike on an Iranian cargo ship tell us about the expanding war — and was it really a message to Donald Trump? Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack why Ukraine may be taking the fight beyond Russia, what Iran’s threat of retaliation means, and where the Houthis fit into the conflict. Plus, after an attack at a Pride event in Berlin, they look at Europe’s changing terror threat, the rise of less sophisticated, lone-actor attacks, and the difficult question facing governments: how do you prevent rare but devastating violence without over-securitising society? Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.

While political leaders frame left-wing extremism as the rising domestic terror threat, the actual data (who commits violence, against whom, and why) points in a more uncomfortable direction. This week on Conflicts of Interest, Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills break down what ACLED's data reveals about political violence in the United States and beyond: Is the far left genuinely becoming a greater security threat, or is the danger being overstated for political gain? What does the data actually say about violence committed by far-right vs far-left actors? Why does the perception of the threat diverge so sharply from the reality? How does partisan framing of national security distort counterterrorism priorities? They also discuss the rising tide of violence against politicians and local officials, the Trump administration's latest gender politics in the US military, and the accelerating trend of everything — from national security to football — becoming partisan. Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.

This week on Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED's Myanmar expert, Su Mon, to examine why Myanmar's civil war won't end anytime soon despite sweeping early resistance gains. They break down the fractured battlefield of hundreds of armed groups, the military stalemate between the junta and opposition forces, and how drones, improvised aircraft, and shifting alliances are reshaping the conflict. The conversation explores China's role as the country's most influential external player, and asks why geopolitics continues to outweigh the concerns of three million displaced civilians. The episode also turns to Iran and Ukraine, where recent escalations have raised fresh questions about the trajectory of both wars, the limits of military force, and what comes next. From Tehran to Naypyidaw, this episode unpacks the power politics driving today's conflicts—and why understanding them means looking far beyond the battlefield. Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.

This week on Conflict of Interests , Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED's Sudan expert, Nohad Khaddaj, to examine why Sudan's war remains deadlocked despite mounting diplomatic pressure. They break down the siege of Al Obeid, the military stalemate between the SAF and RSF, and how drones, foreign backing, and regional rivalries are reshaping the battlefield. The conversation explores the roles of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, and asks why geopolitics continues to outweigh humanitarian concerns. The episode also turns to Iran, where the funeral of the country's supreme leader drew vast crowds and raised fresh questions about the future of the regime, domestic support, and what comes next after the war. From Tehran to Khartoum, this episode unpacks the power politics driving today's conflicts—and why understanding them means looking far beyond the battlefield. Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.

The Islamabad Memorandum was signed barely two weeks ago. Sanctions relief and $24 billion in unfrozen funds have already reached Tehran. So when an Iranian drone struck a commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, the US retaliated within hours — and both sides immediately agreed to "stand down for now." Is the MoU already dead — or is Tehran simply testing how far it can push? Britain's anti-migration fracture has moved from political rhetoric to street-level reality — and with the 7th Prime Minister in 10 years about to take office, the question isn't whether it escalates, but where. This week, Clionadh and Bron break down the weekend's strikes on Iran, why the Hormuz closure matters more than the bombs, and what the MoU's fragility tells us about who really holds the cards. They look at why Tehran gains from the chaos, what the US retaliation did and didn't achieve, and why a ceasefire that was always a stopgap is now visibly in question. They also explore the UK's anti-migration escalation, examine how one attack spiraled into nationwide unrest, and connect the deeper thread: state failure, institutional decay, and the erosion of public trust, at home and abroad. Talk to us Subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube . 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? Better decisions start with better data. Understand the risks, register today.