Published by Adam Lawrence
The UK's Premier Property, Business, Markets & Economics Podcast. With your host: Adam Lawrence
Listen on Apple Podcasts1 hr 9 min
John Healey's surprise Treasury, Chris Watkin's real-time numbers, and rent controls back on the table. Burnham's in, Starmer's gone, and John Healey is the surprise new chancellor - but for property the real question isn't who runs the country, it's what a new Treasury means for UK mortgage rates and house prices. This week Adam works through the cabinet reshuffle, softening inflation, and a market quietly repricing in real terms. No tribal economics, no hype - just the numbers and what they mean. There's a surprise CPI drop to unpick, a five-year swap creeping the wrong way, Chris Watkin's real-time withdrawal and pricing numbers, rent controls openly back on the exploration list, and a Molly report on London new-build that lands like a warning shot - 589 people bought a new home in the whole of London in three months. Add a land value tax that could reshape the game for a 710-unit portfolio, and there's plenty to settle. In this episode: (00:00) Surprise inflation drop - framing the week (07:00) Healey's the shock chancellor - the Burnham cabinet (19:00) Trump watch and the world economy (30:00) Chris Watkin's real-time numbers: the withdrawal coin-flip (42:00) The macro-scope: GDP, construction and rents (51:00) Buy-to-let lending: the amateur sells, the operator buys (58:00) Guilty or Not: guilts, swaps and 6% money (66:00) Workshop - JV & M&A, Manchester, 1 October (70:00) Deep dive: planned or unplanned - Mansion House, rent controls, London new-build (93:00) Seed questions: should you wait for Healey's budget? (104:00) KCCO - sign-off ▶ Next workshop - Property Business Workshop, central Manchester, Thursday 1 October: Join Adam and Rod Turner for a full day on joint ventures, mergers and acquisitions - how to structure a JV that survives contact with reality, how to buy companies rather than just houses, and the classic blowups to avoid. Super Early Bird is a genuine 20% off and more than half the VIP dinner tickets are already gone. Book at www.tinyurl.com/pbwoct26 or use the link below. Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/ Follow Adam on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/ Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence More from Propenomix: https://propenomix.com/
49 min
Andy Burnham wants to tax the land under our feet. This week Adam works through the land value tax - the maths, the politics, and what it would really mean for the UK property market, landlords and house prices. No tribal economics, no hype - just the numbers. There's £7.1 trillion of UK land value on the table, a compulsory purchase threat aimed at landlords, a possible re-engineering of capital gains tax, and an England that's on course to build just 56% of its housing target. Plus Chris Watkin's real-time data - 45.2% of homes leaving estate agents' books unsold - a Trump watch on the digital services tax, and swaps closing under the 4% handle. In this episode: (00:00) Workshop week & the big numbers of the week (07:00) Land value tax: does the maths add up? (11:00) Re-engineering capital gains tax? (14:00) Next workshop - JVs & M&A in Manchester (20:00) Trump watch: digital services tax vs tariffs (25:00) Social homes: 18k a year built, 90k needed (29:00) Reform or raid? Council tax & the north-south unfairness (33:00) Compulsory purchase: combat or collaboration? (37:00) Why the state still needs private landlords (40:00) Chris Watkin's real-time numbers: unsold stock & the pricing gap (43:00) The macro blast: swaps under 4%, PMIs & prices (47:00) KCCO - sign-off ▶ Next workshop - PBW12, Manchester, Thursday 1 October: Join Adam and Rod for a full day on joint ventures and mergers & acquisitions - real-life case studies, how the deals were structured, how they got through the legals, and how to add value to your balance sheet quickly and sensibly. Book here: https://www.tinyurl.com/pbwoct26 - or Google "Property Business Workshop 12". Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/ Follow Adam on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/ Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence More from Propenomix: https://propenomix.com/
1 hr 25 min
Kier's gone, Andy Burnham is the runaway favourite, and the bigger question for property isn't who runs the country - it's who runs the Treasury. This week Adam works through what a new chancellor means for UK mortgage rates, the housing market and your next move. No tribal economics, no hype - just the numbers and what they mean. There's an election question to settle first, a mortgage backbook converging on new lending rates, Chris Watkin's real-time market data on the withdrawal rate and pricing gap, and a land value tax that could reshape the whole game for a 710-unit portfolio. Plus Trump watch, the macro-scope on mortgage pricing, the "3% world" and the debt, and what Adam is actually buying at 65p in the pound right now. In this episode: (00:00) Kemi's out, Burnham's in - framing the week (08:00) Will there be a general election? Runners and riders (24:00) The real question: who is the next chancellor? (34:00) Trump watch & the world economy (40:00) Chris Watkin's real-time numbers: withdrawal rate & pricing gap (52:00) Mortgage backbook vs new lending (66:00) Inflation, the debt & the "3% world" (78:00) Land value tax: what half a percent really means (84:00) What Adam is buying right now (89:00) KCCO - sign-off ▶ Next workshop - PBW11, central London: Join Adam and Rod for a full day on due diligence - on deals, on JV partners, and on the diligence people will run on you. The only real chance to grab proper time with us. Grab a VIP dinner ticket while they last. Google "Property Business Workshop 11" or use the link in the show notes. Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/ Follow Adam on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/ Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence More from Propenomix: https://propenomix.com/ Workshop: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven
1 hr 30 min
The argument was never whether to cut, only how fast. That's gone. There won't be any cuts this year. The next move is a hike, and this episode walks you through exactly why. Part one of a heavier-than-usual week, split into two because it ran close to three hours. This half is pure macro: the war, the rates U-turn, the real-time market, and the gilts. Trump Watch - The ceasefire that isn't. Oil came down on hope value, not supply actually returning, and the physical damage to Hormuz is months of work away even if the politics cooperate. Plus an objective audit of the tariff regime: $264bn raised, the deficit untouched, $166bn ordered back out the door with a $23m-a-day interest penalty. Expensive is a better word than winning. And the framework break at the Fed under new chair Kevin Walsh, who wants to scrap forward guidance and the dot plot in favour of "strategic ambiguity." The Real-Time Market - Chris Watkin's week 22 data, and the first of three independent datasets that all agree on the shape of the market: softening, selectively, not collapsing. Gross sales down 8.9% year on year and down in every single region, outer London off 18%, yet price per square foot still rose 1.7% in a month. Fewer homes selling, the ones that do achieving more per foot. The pounds-per-square-foot index that correlates 98% with the Land Registry, five months ahead. The Inflation Attitude Survey - Rarely covered, more revealing than half the official data. Median inflation expectations up to 5%, the year-ahead figure jumping to 4%, and 53% now expecting rates to rise. Why belief greases the outcome, and why the Bank fears the survey more than a weak GDP print. The Gilts and the MPC Call - The five-year closed at 4.375%, that 6% limited company money still stubbornly in place. Hugh Pill already voted for a hike last time, the first vote for higher rates in nearly three years. The curve now prices a base rate higher in a year than today. Adam gives a member-by-member breakdown of Thursday's vote and lands on 7-2, with 6-3 not far behind. No hype, no sensationalism. The turn is real, but it's a turn, not a screeching handbrake. Build your LTVs, your stress tests, and your fix-versus-tracker calls around the direction, not the exact date. Part two covers the deep dive: four reports on the affordability wall and why building more won't fix it. Listen next. Property Business Workshop - Central London, Wednesday 1st July. Real due diligence: on lenders, on JV partners, on deals, and the DD being run on you. Live exercise, no-holds-barred Q&A, VIP dinner. Tickets selling now: search "Property Business Workshop 11" or visit tinyurl.com/pbweleven Keep calm, listen to the Supplement, and carry on.
39 min
Back after a four-week break, Adam runs through everything that's moved in the UK property market over the past month, and the picture has shifted. Transactions are now down three weeks running, with last week's sold-subject-to-contract figures off around 9% year on year. Adam explains why the slowdown is showing up in June rather than March: the 90-day decision-in-principle window that locked first-time buyers into sub-4% rates has finally run out, and the new world of 4.75 to 5% is quietly pricing people out. First-time buyers are still 55% of the market, so when their borrowing power drops, everything feels it. Also in this one: • TrumpWatch: how the Iran situation and the oil price are setting inflation expectations and feeding straight into UK swaps • The five-year swap's run up towards 4.4% and back, the 30-year gilt near 5.5%, and why deals are now being modelled on 6 to 6.1% money • The supply glut explained: over-instruction, only 54% of listings actually selling, and a 25% gap between asking and agreed prices • Why nominal house prices are a nonsense, and how, adjusted for RPI, we're sitting back at Q1 2003 • The gearing-up versus gearing-down trap, and a few honest words on what Rich Dad Poor Dad got wrong about "good debt" • London: 20, 30, even 40% discounts appearing, and why this might be the best buying window in a decade if the yield can be made to work • The Labour leadership question, the Makerfield by-election, and what a Burnham win (and his choice of chancellor) could mean for landlords, from a Torsten Bell land value tax to a steadier Pat McFadden • A grounded look at rent controls, what Scotland's "rent cap" actually did, and the difference between stabilisation and a 1970s rent officer Plus a word on the upcoming Property Business Workshop in central London, the only day in the UK dedicated to due diligence, run with Rod Turner and this time with special guest Claude alongside for the live due diligence exercise. Booking link: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven Read the full Supplement every Sunday on LinkedIn and the Property & Poppadoms website. Keep calm, carry on, and come back every Sunday.
1 hr 8 min
Is the UK property market crashing, or is it just geographically divided? ***CHECK OUT OUR NEXT WORKSHOP: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven *** In this week's Propenomix Sunday Supplement live version, I dive deep into the unvarnished reality of the UK economy and housing market. I break down the massive 27.4% gap between property listing prices and actual sale prices, the horrifying cratering of the UK construction sector, and exactly why it now costs £76,000 more to build a house than it did in 2020. Plus, I look at the seismic shock of the local elections - what does a Nigel Farage/Reform UK surge mean for landlords, rent controls, and the bond markets? If you are a property investor, developer, or just trying to navigate UK interest rates and inflation, this is the only macroeconomic breakdown you need this week. 👇 SUBSCRIBE & DROP YOUR QUESTIONS IN THE COMMENTS! 👇 In this 1-Hour Live Stream, I cover: Trumpwatch: The US Court blocks global tariffs & the UK local election fallout. The Reality of the High Street: Why 46% of homes are withdrawing unsold. Halifax House Price Index: The brutal North-South property divide. Macro Data: S&P PMIs flash red for construction as supply pipelines dry up. Gilts & Swaps: Why "Higher for Longer" interest rates are locked in. The Deep Dive: How political shifts will impact your property portfolio and EPC illusions. ⏱️ Video Chapters / Timestamps 00:00 - Intro: Welcome to the Sunday Supplement Live! 02:15 - Trumpwatch: Local Election Shocks & Trade War Updates 12:30 - UK Property Market: 637k Listings & The "Hopium" Epidemic 20:45 - The 27.4% Pricing Delusion: Why Half the Market is Failing 28:00 - Halifax House Price Index: Real Terms Shrinkage & The North-South Divide 36:15 - The PMI Horror Show: UK Construction is Cratering 45:00 - Supply Chain Crisis: The £76k "New Build Tax" & Material Costs 51:30 - Gilts, Swaps & Interest Rates: Are We Stuck at 4.5%? 55:20 - The Deep Dive: How Politics & Populism Will Impact Landlords 1:00:00 - Live Q&A and Final Thoughts #Propenomix #AdamLawrence #Property #Business #Economics #Markets ***CHECK OUT OUR NEXT WORKSHOP: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven ***
1 hr 14 min
Episode Title: Whisky Carrots, Tech Sticks & The Death of Pricing Hopium Show Notes: Upcoming Event: Before we dive into today's macroeconomic breakdown, a quick reminder: Navigating a market devoid of "pricing hopium" requires airtight analysis. My next Property Business Workshop is coming up, and we are focusing entirely on Due Diligence. If you want to stop guessing and start running the real numbers on your acquisitions, secure your spot now: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven Welcome back to the Propenomix Podcast. In this episode, we are breaking down my latest article and deep-dive: "Whisky Carrots, Tech Sticks, and The Death of Pricing Hopium." We are officially in an era where sentiment and headlines don't pay the bills - structural data, deep economic analysis, and pragmatism do. Today, we cut through the noise to explore the macroeconomic drivers actually influencing UK property returns right now. We discuss what I refer to as "Whisky Carrots" (the genuine, mature incentives and opportunities in the market) versus the "Tech Sticks" (regulatory pressures, EPC targets, and compliance data forcing landlords' hands). Most importantly, we dissect the "Death of Pricing Hopium" - why the era of waiting for zero-interest-rate valuations to magically return is over, and why sellers and investors must finally face the reality of the current economic cycle. If you want to make investment decisions with confidence rather than fear, grab a notebook. It's time to look at the real numbers. CHAPTERS & TIMESTAMPS: Introduction & Cutting Through the Property Headlines The Macro Landscape: Inflation, Yields, & The Reality of the Economy What are "Whisky Carrots"? (Finding Genuine Value & Mature Incentives) The "Tech Sticks": EPCs, New Regulations, and The Cost of Non-Compliance The Death of Pricing Hopium: Why Sellers Must Face Reality Now Capital Flows, Commodities, & Global Macro Trends into 2027 Adapting Your Property Strategy (Hold, Fold, or Refinance?) Audience Q&A: 4% Mortgages, Margins, & Portfolio Restructuring Final Thoughts & How to Read the Sunday Supplement RESOURCES & LINKS: 🎟️ Join the next Property Business Workshop (Focus: Due Diligence): Bulletproof your acquisition strategy by booking your ticket here: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven 📖 Read the original article: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/adamglawrence_propertymarket-macroeconomics-ukhousing-ugcPost-7456620611306606592-7_aZ ✉️ Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement Newsletter: https://propenomix.com/ 💼 Connect with Adam on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/ ABOUT ADAM LAWRENCE: Adam is the founder of Propenomix, author of the acclaimed Sunday Supplements economic newsletter, and host of the Propenomix Podcast. With a corporate background in wealth management and a property career that started in earnest in 2011, Adam has been involved in over 850+ UK property deals and portfolios. His approach blends real economics, structural data, and practical investor experience to empower you to build strategies that align with real capital markets. Enjoyed the episode? Please hit "Follow" on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen, and consider leaving a rating and review to help spread the word of Propenomix.
1 hr 14 min
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed , Brent crude has blasted past $100 a barrel , and the Bank of England has slammed the brakes on rate cuts . Welcome to another essential reality check on this week's Propenomix Supplement. We are stripping away the mainstream noise to look at exactly how global geopolitics, staggering private credit failures, and a flatlining UK economy are impacting your portfolio right now. The facts have changed, and your strategy needs to change with them. What we cover in this week's episode: Geopolitics & Trumponomics: Tariffs are back on the menu with a maximum threat of 15% . Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict is sending European wholesale gas prices up nearly 100% on the month . The UK Property Market: We've hit a 10-year high for March listings . Transactions are functional , but the glut of supply has led to the longest average time to sell since 2013 . Bond Market Bloodbath: The flagship 10-year gilt is threatening the 5% yield mark for the first time since the financial crisis . We discuss why you must stress-test your debt exits at 6% to 6.25% . Deep Dive: The £1.7bn MFS Collapse: A forensic look at the Market Financial Solutions administration . We break down the "double pledging" allegations , the massive institutional contagion , and the incoming fire sale of 250 Prime Central London properties . Bank of England's 9-0 Hold: Why the MPC voted unanimously to hold the base rate at 3.75% , the BoE's expectation that inflation will bounce back to 3.5% , and the very real threat of stagflation as GDP crawls at 0.1% . The Labour Market & Construction: Why self-employment plummeted by a staggering 242k in 2025 , how businesses are turning to automation instead of hiring , and why the 1.5m homes goal is an utter pipedream as planning apps fall again . Generation Rent's EPC Fantasy: Breaking down the new £10,000 EPC cost cap and why backdoor rent controls will simply drive landlords to sell up and buy 5% government bonds instead . This is not a time for marginal deals . Tune in to get the raw data and the macroeconomic perspective you need to defend your portfolio and spot the generational acquisition opportunities hiding in the distress . Listen now on all major platforms.
1 hr 5 min
We are officially in a per-capita recession, meaning the average person in the UK is getting steadily poorer, despite the headline vanity metrics trying to suggest otherwise . In this week's agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup, we cut through the noise of the mainstream headlines to deliver the unvarnished reality of the market . Mortgage rates are all over the place, with the potential of rates being cut in the US while being raised in the UK . As Mohamed El-Erian points out, "We are navigating a global economy that is structurally different, not just cyclically delayed. The old playbooks will not work" . If your business model is built on waiting for cheaper debt, you need to change the model or move on . Grab your black armbands, because we are diving deep . In this episode, we cover: Macro Headwinds & Trumponomics: We discuss the ongoing war, the intense volatility in the oil market, and the US Trade Representative's investigation into 60 major economies for "forced labour" and "manufacturing overcapacity" . The Illusion of Growth: We break down the latest GDP Growth report, which printed 0% for growth in January, and explain why the 0.1% uptick in Q4 2025 masks underlying weakness . Property Market Reality Check: A deep dive into the RICS Residential Market Report and Hometrack's Rental Market Index . We explore why rental supply is still 23% below pre-pandemic levels and why the Buy to Let sector represented just 8.4% of gross mortgage advances in Q4 2025 . The Ground Rent Farce: We expose how the proposed £250 cap on ground rents will inadvertently deliver an estimated £8.7 billion windfall to property investors rather than helping owner-occupiers . Demand Support & The SME Crisis: An analysis of the LPDF and Savills report on introducing demand support, and why SME developers are capturing an increasingly small share of the new build market . Gilts & Swaps: The 5-year gilt yield closed the week at 4.35%, and we explain why the next move the Bank of England makes might actually be a rate hike . Links & Resources: Our next Property Business Workshop is selling fast! Join us on Wednesday 22nd April in Central Manchester to discuss tax, risk, deal structuring, and exit options . Secure your tickets here: www.tinyurl.com/pbwten Keep Calm, ALWAYS listen to or read the Supplement, and Carry On .
1 hr 10 min
In this jam-packed episode of Propenomix, we navigate the collision of global macroeconomics and the gritty reality of the UK property market. From the "bull in a china shop" impact of Trumponomics on UK SMEs to the legislative earthquake of the Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill, we strip away the headlines to reveal what the data actually says. We deep-dive into the "death of leasehold" and the radical 50% threshold for commonhold conversion, dissect the government's £39bn social housing pledge, and analyze why London's Build-to-Rent sector is facing a construction "cardiac arrest." Plus, we explore why "capital allocators" see yields differently than the rest of us. In This Episode: 🌍 The Macro View: Trumponomics & Trade Wars How UK firms are reacting to US tariff threats and the rise of the "Anti-Coercion Instrument." Why 21% of UK SMEs now rate US tariffs as their #1 economic concern. 📈 The Market Data: Listings, Lags & Regional Winners Chris Watkin's Stats: A 10-year record for reductions and the return of the "listings glut." Zoopla Index: Why the North West is surging (+3.5%) while London stalls, and the "discipline" dominating Southern sellers. Scotland's Warning: Evidence of landlord consolidation and the 8% LBTT sting. ⚖️ Legislative Deep Dive: The Commonhold Revolution The "Feudal" End: The ban on new leasehold flats and the £30k fines enforcing it. The 50% Threshold: How a simple majority could drag an entire block into commonhold (and what happens to the dissenters). Ground Rent Caps: The £250 cap, the 40-year sunset clause, and the abolition of forfeiture. 🏗️ Sector Spotlight: Social Housing, Co-Living & BTR Social Housing: The truth about the £39bn fund and the "free money" 0.1% loans for providers. The S106 Emergency: Why the "clearing service" is really a distressed asset register. Co-Living Goes Mainstream: Why Earls Court is betting big on co-living and the shift to on-site affordable housing. Build-to-Rent Reality Check: The "delivery lag"—why completions are up 13% but starts have collapsed by 80% in London. 🧠 The Propenomix Philosophy Yields vs. Growth: Understanding the mindset difference between "BRR hustlers" and institutional "capital allocators." Key Quotes: "The 'London Premium' has become a 'London Penalty.' Construction costs in the capital are eye-watering, and investors are voting with their wallets." "The government is trying to make commonhold robust... but the reliance on members voting for budgets fills me with dread." Links: Adam's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/ Daily PropenomAIx Newsletter: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/7392088970785878016/ Propenomix YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence Weekly Sunday Supplement Newsletter: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/
1 hr 14 min
Is your investment strategy built for the reality of 2026, or are you holding onto a "zombie" portfolio? Summary: In this deep-dive episode, Adam Lawrence breaks down the convergence of macroeconomic shifts and regulatory hammers hitting the UK property market. From the "Trumpomics" ripple effect to the government's 152-page Warm Homes Plan , we analyze why the gap between the North and South is widening into a canyon and what the 84% collapse in London construction starts means for your exit strategy. What we cover this week: Trumpomics & Global Yields: How US tariffs and Arctic cooperation are jerking the UK gilt and swap markets. The 2026 Property Snapshot: Real-time stats on the "glut" of New Year listings and the 22% gap between asking and sold prices. EPC C by 2030: A brutal look at the Warm Homes Plan . Is the £10,000 cap realistic, or will it force a mass landlord exodus? The Green Mortgage Myth: Why the 7.5 bps "green discount" is a rounding error, not an incentive. London's Construction Cliff Edge: Analyzing the "Molly Report"—why private construction has plummeted 84% and the "mid-market trap" for £1,200/sq. ft. apartments. Regional Winners: Why Northern Ireland, Scotland, and the Northwest are seeing 90%+ of homes increase in value while the South stagnates. Timestamps: [ 00:00 ] – Intro: "Show me the incentive, I'll show you the outcome." [ 02:08 ] – Trumpomics, Greenland, and the impact on UK yields. [ 05:15 ] – UK Property Market Stats: The 2026 Week 2 breakdown. [ 11:25 ] – Macro Outlook: Unemployment, wage growth, and the 5.7% prediction. [ 33:30 ] – Deep Dive: The EPC "Warm Homes Plan" and the 2030 deadline. [ 48:40 ] – The Bank of England's take on Green Mortgages. [ 55:05 ] – The London Development Collapse: "Zombie sites" and the construction cliff. [ 01:03:20 ] – Zupla 2025 Analysis: The Great Regional Decoupling. [ 01:12:40 ] – Outro & Upcoming Manchester Workshop details. Links & Resources: Next Workshop: Property Business Workshop (Manchester - Wed 22nd April). Book here: www.tinyurl.com/pbwten Follow Adam on Socials: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/ Subscribe to the Supplement: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/ Keywords: UK Property Market 2026, EPC Regulations 2030, Warm Homes Plan, Buy to Let Strategy, UK Inflation, Green Mortgages, London Property Crash, Propenomix, Adam Lawrence, Real Estate Investing UK.
58 min
The Media is Watching Greenland. I'm Watching the Bond Yields. While the headlines are hyperventilating over Trump's rhetoric on acquiring Greenland or the "generosity" of Venezuelan oil deals, they are missing the actual story. The structural reality is far more significant: a $200bn direct intervention in the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and a hard cap on credit card interest. This isn't just populism; it's market interference of the highest order. And frankly, the Gilts are loving it. Back home, the "Zombie Apocalypse" has officially arrived—at least according to the Resolution Foundation. But before you panic, look at the maths. We are staring down the barrel of 0.2% real household disposable income growth and a demographic cliff where deaths finally outnumber births. The era of cheap money and easy capital growth is over. 2026 is about survival, defensive yields, and cash flow. In this week's Macroscope and Deep Dive, we strip away the "realistic optimism" marketing fluff to look at the cold, hard data: Trumponomics & Market Interference: Why the $200bn MBS purchase is a "crisis move" in non-crisis times, and why US yield compression is the only thing saving UK borrowers right now. The "Zombie" Economy: The Resolution Foundation calls it a "mild zombie apocalypse," but with insolvencies at 2011 highs and stagnant wages, the "reallocation" of labour looks a lot like pain for the private sector. Savills' 2026 Outlook: They're predicting a 3% base rate and a return to "normality." I break down why "normality" now means high regulation, zero supply, and why you shouldn't bank on capital growth to bail out a bad yield. The Density Delusion: The Policy Exchange wants "Gentle Density" and mansion blocks. A lovely idea, until it hits the reality of the 18-metre rule and the Building Safety Act. The Takeaway: If your strategy relies on a V-shaped recovery or a return to the low-rate environment of 2021, you are fighting the maths. 2026 is a year for the brave, but only if the numbers stack up on day one. The Next Step: If you want to professionalise your portfolio and stop relying on luck, join the workshop. This is where we do the work the industry ignores. Join here: https://tinyurl.com/pbwnine Challenge: Forward this episode to your broker or investment partner. Ask them if their 2026 projections account for a 0.2% growth in tenant disposable income. If they don't have an answer, you need to talk.
41 min
Is it time to submit to the AI overlords? In this first full supplement of 2026, Adam Lawrence kicks off the year with a unique experiment: he trained an AI on a year's worth of Propynomics content to predict the macro and property landscape for 2026. Does the AI know Adam better than he knows himself? Tune in to hear where they agree - and the critical areas where Adam vehemently disagrees (especially on rents!). We also tackle the return of "Trump-onomics" and the concept of "Net Wars" , alongside a deep dive into the UK's "Inclusive Wealth" accounts - proof that the economy hasn't fully recovered from 2020, even if GDP says otherwise. Plus, we break down the latest Nationwide House Price Index , Chris Watkin's data on why volume - not price - is the new metric of health , and why a "flat" market might be your best buying opportunity this year. In this episode: Trump-onomics: Venezuela, oil prices, and the "Putinization" of US foreign policy. Market Health: Why transaction volume is beating price inflation (feat. data from Chris Watkin). The "Real" Economy: Why ONS Inclusive Wealth data shows we are still burning the furniture to heat the house. Deep Dive (2026 Predictions): Adam vs. The AI. House Prices: Why Adam predicts +1.5% while the consensus says higher. Interest Rates: Why the Base Rate might stick at 3.5%. Rents: The AI predicts a 6.5% surge, but Adam explains why affordability will cap it at 3.5%. Political Outlook: Will Starmer survive 2026? Plus, the looming "concrete vs. countryside" civil war. Links: Join the Property Business Workshop (Jan 22): tinyurl.com/pbwnine
1 hr 4 min
Are you ready for "The Golden Quarter"? In this episode, we take a deep dive into the critical window of opportunity opening up for property investors between now and May 1st, 2026. Adam Lawrence reviews the economic landscape at the close of 2025 and explains why the upcoming implementation of the Renters' Rights Act is triggering a strategic sell-off among amateur landlords. We break down the macroeconomic factors driving these changes—from the surprising resilience of "Trumpomics" and US GDP growth to the stark reality of the UK's rental market and the "construction crisis" in Scotland . In this episode, you will learn: The "Golden Quarter" Explained: Why the period leading up to the full implementation of the Renters' Rights Act in May 2026 is creating a unique buying window for professional investors . Trumpomics & The Global Economy: How a 4.3% US GDP growth, driven by AI investment and tariffs, is rippling through to the UK economy and tech investment . UK Market Reality Check: A look at the 2025 stats, including 1.7 million listings, rising fall-throughs, and why Real Household Disposable Income (RHDI) is down despite GDP growth . The "Rachel" Case Study: A hypothetical look at why high-earning, "accidental" landlords may be forced to exit the market due to new possession grounds and regulatory fatigue . The 5 Ingredients of the Golden Quarter: Understanding how FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt), MEES regulations, and regulatory risk are reshaping return expectations . Key Quote: "Be greedy only when others are fearful." — Adam Lawrence (quoting Warren Buffett) on the mindset for professional investors in 2026 . Timestamps: 00:00 – Market Forecast & The 22% Price Surge 02:22 – Trumpomics: US GDP & Trade Wars 11:15 – UK Property Market Review: 2025 Statistics 24:36 – The Scottish Housing Crisis 36:03 – Deep Dive: What is "The Golden Quarter"? 52:40 – The 5 Ingredients Driving the Landlord Exodus Tune in to understand why the amateur exodus might be your professional opportunity. Buy workshop tickets: www.tinyurl.com/pbwnine
1 hr 16 min
The Bank of England has finally cut rates to 3.75%, but the razor-thin 5-4 vote signals that the battle against inflation is far from over. In this episode, we break down the latest "Propenomics" analysis of the UK economic landscape as we head into 2026. From the "Suicide by Unemployment" risk to the growing divide between public and private sector pay, we analyse why the BoE is behind the curve—and what that means for your portfolio. We also discuss the new realities of "Trumpomics," the "Output Trap," and why yield-chasing in London is becoming a dangerous game. Key Topics Discussed: The BoE Rate Cut: Analyzing the split decision to cut to 3.75% and why the "Hawks" and "Doves" are divided. The Unemployment Trap: Unemployment breaks the 5% barrier (5.1%) while youth unemployment hits a staggering 16%. Trump 2.0 Trade Deals: How the UK is navigating "preferred partner" status and what 10% tariffs mean for manufacturing. Property Market Stats: Week 49 data shows sales are up, but fall-throughs remain sticky at 25.8%. Rental Market Warning: Why rental stock outside London is surging, and why investors must target 7-9% gross yields (North/Midlands) to survive high mortgage costs. The Private vs. Public Gap: Public sector pay is up 7.6%, while the private sector has shed nearly a quarter of a million jobs. Strategic Takeaway: The era of passive capital growth is paused. For 2026, the game is about active management and cash flow. We discuss why tenant retention is now your primary risk mitigation strategy and why mortgage rates for limited companies will likely settle in the mid-5% range. Buy your workshop tickets - Early Bird still available! www.tinyurl.com/pbwnine
1 hr 4 min
Episode Summary: In this pivotal episode of Propenomix , Adam Lawrence bridges the gap between the immediate humanitarian crisis on our doorstep and the macroeconomic shockwaves shaping the global landscape. From the staggering £2.8 billion cost of the UK's homelessness emergency to the return of "Trumpnomics" and its ripple effects on British property, this is an episode about cause, effect, and strategy. As we approach the festive season, the conversation begins with Homes for Christmas - not just as a sentiment, but as a critical look at the UK's housing failure. We then pivot to the global stage to analyze how US economic policy could dictate your mortgage rates, before landing on the ultimate actionable guide: The 2026 Property Playbook. What You Will Learn in This Episode: 1. The £2.8bn Homelessness Crisis: A System at Breaking Point The figures are sobering. The cost of temporary accommodation and the management of homelessness has ballooned to an estimated £2.8 billion, a burden that is breaking local council budgets and failing the most vulnerable in society. But beyond the headlines, what are the structural failures driving this? The Supply Deficit: Why the current planning system and development incentives are failing to produce the social housing stock we actually need. The "Homes for Christmas" Reality: We discuss the human cost of the crisis during the holidays and the initiatives trying to bridge the gap. The Landlord's Role: With the private rental sector (PRS) under pressure from regulation and tax changes, are private landlords being pushed out exactly when they are needed most to help house the nation? Adam breaks down the relationship between government policy and the shrinking supply of rental homes. 2. Trumpnomics: The Global Macro Effect on UK Property Economics does not happen in a vacuum. With the specter (or reality) of Donald Trump's economic policies - "Trumpnomics" - returning to the fore, UK investors need to pay attention. The US economy is the engine of the world, and its decisions on tariffs, trade protectionism, and debt drive global bond yields. Inflation & Interest Rates: If Trumpnomics fuels US inflation through aggressive fiscal stimulus and tariffs, how long before that inflationary pressure crosses the Atlantic? We analyze the correlation between US Treasuries and UK Gilts - and what that means for your mortgage rates in 2025 and 2026. Trade Wars & Materials: How protectionist policies could impact the cost of construction materials and the wider UK economy. Currency Fluctuations: What a stronger dollar means for international investment into UK bricks and mortar. 3. The 2026 Property Playbook: Strategy for the Medium Term Real estate is a long game, but the next 18 to 24 months are critical. Adam lays out the 2026 Property Playbook , a strategic roadmap for investors looking to position themselves ahead of the next market cycle. Survive then Thrive: Navigating the tail end of the high-interest rate environment to ensure cash flow remains healthy. The 2026 Opportunity: Why 2026 is flagged as a key year for capital growth. We look at the historical property cycles and the indicators suggesting a supply-crunch-driven boom in specific regions. Asset Selection: Which property types will outperform? A look at why functional residential stock, HMOs in non-Article 4 areas, and specific commercial-to-residential conversions might be the winners of the next cycle. The Regulatory Landscape: Preparing your portfolio now for the EPC changes and renters' reform legislation that will be fully bedded in by 2026. Why This Matters Now: The property market is currently full of mixed signals. Media headlines scream crash one day and boom the next. By understanding the Propenomix - the intersection of property and economics - you can filter out the noise. Whether you are a developer looking to understand the macro headwinds, a landlord concerned about the rental crisis, or an investor planning your next acquisition, this episode provides the data-driven clarity you need. It is not just about buying houses; it is about understanding the world in which those houses exist. From the streets of Britain where the homelessness crisis plays out, to the policy rooms of Washington D.C., everything is connected. Join the Conversation: Are you seeing the impact of the homelessness crisis in your local area? How are you preparing your portfolio for 2026? Let us know in the comments or reach out via LinkedIn. Connect with Adam Lawrence & Propenomix: stay ahead of the curve with the latest insights, data analysis, and property strategies. 🔗 LinkedIn: Adam Lawrence Follow for daily insights and professional updates. 📺 YouTube: Propenomix with Adam Lawrence Watch the full video version of this podcast, plus deep dives into data and charts that we can't show on audio. Subscribe to The Weekly Newsletter: Subscribe Here Get the top property news stories delivered straight to your inbox every week. Disclaimer: The content of this podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Property investment carries risks, and you should always conduct your own due diligence or consult with a qualified professional before making investment decisions.
1 hr 10 min
Episode Description: Are we witnessing the hardening of structural fault lines in the UK housing market? In this episode, we break down the newly released English Housing Survey (EHS 2024-25) and critical November economic indicators. From the "temporal stretching" of mortgages to a construction sector "deep in the red," we reveal why the UK property landscape is becoming a high-risk, high-reward environment for investors—and a financial squeeze for everyone else. In this episode, we cover: The 30-Year Norm: Why 62% of First-Time Buyers are now locking into 30+ year terms just to enter the market. Generational Divide: How the elderly now "Own England" (62% of outright owners are 65+), while working-age tenants remain captive. The Pricing Disconnect: Analyzing the massive 29.3% gap between seller expectations and actual sale prices. Construction in Crisis: The steepest downturn in 5.5 years (PMI 39.4) and what it means for housing supply. The Human Cost: Rising "structural unhappiness" and the fragility of the tenant base. Global Shocks: Trumponomics, tariffs, and the US/UK Economic Prosperity Deal. Links & Resources: 🎟️ Join the Workshop: tinyurl.com/pbwnine #Propenomix #AdamLawrence #Property #Economics #UKHousing
1 hr 5 min
The Budget: What actually happened (vs. what they told you) The dust has settled on the Budget, but the rhetoric is still blinding the market. This week, we strip away the political spin and look at the raw math. From the "real" net migration figures to the Scottish rental data that is predicting the future of the English PRS—we are connecting the dots others are ignoring. In this episode: Trumpwatch: The macro impact you aren't seeing. The Budget Deep Dive: Assessments from the left and right (the ones that actually matter). Gilt & Swaps: The signal in the noise. The Propenomix Verdict: The market is shifting. Are you positioned for it? 🎧 Listen now. Know a landlord with their head in the sand? Send them this episode. 🚀 Next Step: Don't just listen—prepare. Secure your seat at the Property Business Workshop and get the tactical edge: https://tinyurl.com/pbwnine
2 hr 0 min
Join Adam Lawrence and Duncan Hooper for a deep-dive analysis of the 2025 UK Budget in this special live-recorded episode of Propenomix. In what might be the most anticipated fiscal event in years, Adam and Duncan unpack the realities behind Chancellor Rachel Reeves' "Smorgasbord Budget" and what it truly means for property investors, business owners, and the wider UK economy. Cutting through the political noise and media spin, this discussion offers a critical look at the numbers that matter. Adam and Duncan explore the implications of frozen income tax thresholds, the controversial new electric vehicle excise duty, and the surprising lack of movement on Capital Gains Tax. They delve into the strategic nuances of the new "mansion tax" on properties over £2 million and dissect the government's approach to the rental market, including the likely inflationary pressure on rents due to increased landlord costs. Beyond the headlines, this episode provides a unique, investor-focused perspective on: The "Black Hole" Narrative: Was the £22bn fiscal hole real or a political construct to justify tax hikes? Dividend Tax Hikes: A look at the 2% increase and its regressive impact on small business owners versus the "Amazon model" of aggressive reinvestment. The Property Market: Why the rental sector might see a "pass-through" of costs to tenants and how the freeze on thresholds affects market dynamics. Political Fallout: A sharp analysis of Kemi Badenoch's standout performance in opposition and what it signals for the future political landscape. Economic Forecasts: Why the OBR's 1.5% growth forecast might be more realistic than the government's optimism, and what "fiscal headroom" really means for future borrowing. Whether you're a seasoned property investor, a business owner, or simply keen to understand the economic currents shaping the UK, this episode delivers the expert insight and "no-nonsense" analysis you need to navigate the post-budget landscape. Tune in for a session that goes beyond the dispatch box to reveal the real winners and losers of Budget 2025.
46 min
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what's the score? The deep dive looks to how much pain we will all be in in a few days time, post-budget We also have, in the Macro section: Inflation - and a more orderly month The Rightmove Asking Price Index with the ONS Private Rents and House Prices alongside The PMIs and all relevant reports from S&P Global The Gilts and Swaps - natch On the Budget - we've endured endless weeks and indeed months of speculation. Property and any asset owners look set to take it in the face. Will it be as painful as we think? I try to ascribe some probabilities to what will happen! Book workshop tickets: https://tinyurl.com/pbwnine