Published by Bill Blain
Bill Blain is well know market commentator and has published the daily Morning Porridge explaining markets sincee 2007. This podcast is a daily update of the Porridge.
Listen on Apple Podcasts10 min
Blain’s Morning Porridge, August 5th, 2026 “I spent it all on fast boats, fast cars and fast women, and squandered the rest…” As we fearfully watch the markets as the liabilities and exaggerations of AI threaten to unravel, or ponder what games arch-manipulator Scotty Bessant is playing with the Yen… there are times to sit back and wonder what life is really all about? The answer is in doing what makes you happy. In my case its sailing… Instead of trying to explain markets, let me run through how the yacht I was sailing just won Vintage Class at the 200th Cowes Week Sailing Regatta. Key takeaways: A well-prepared yacht, a crew that know their jobs, and the ambition to win. The importance of a plan and communicating it. Being adaptable, eyes in and out the boat, and prepared for the “punch in the mouth” moment. Not being surprised when surprised. Taking advantages of opportunities and not making mistakes. Win by enjoying yourself. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
17 min
Blain’s Morning Porridge July 31st, 2026 “Judge me by how many times I fell down and got right back up again.” Fifty years of political dither leaves the UK looking broken. Faced with massive constrains from taxation and bond markets, there are limited choices from tinkering with spending while trying to look good enough ahead of the next election. Britain needs something more radical – and a complete reform of the system and process. Key Takeaways The steepness of yield curves reflects not only inflation concerns, but rising doubts on political stability. Long-term sustainability of bond markets relies on political credibility. The UK’s major problem is not political policy – but the bureaucracy and process around it. Lubricate the wheels of the economy by fixing the process and it will work better. Housing could be a great example of how to boost the economy. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
10 min
Blain’s Morning Porridge July 29th, 2026 - AI is dead. Long Live AI. “Remember…. All I am offering is the truth. Nothing more.” Markets are all-a-wobble as the AI revolution morphs from a picks and shovels Klondike into a “who is going to make most money” proposition. About time. Who will be the winners and losers in the long-term. In the short-term there is going to be pain and losses as the current high-water retreats. Key takeaways this morning: Apple becomes No 1 Stock because it stood still. Winners will be firms that best integrate AI into their business and boost the bottom line. Losers will stem from leverage plays, collateral and capacity issues as the market continues to evolve and shift tracks. AI boom is not just a Tech story – it’s also geopolitical as China is set to take large part of market. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
14 min
Blain’s Morning Porridge, July 27th, 2026 “Are investment returns more important than security?” The UK has 6 relatively new “mega” Local Government Pension Schemes. They are investing in the UK and globally. But are they focused on the right things? Less than 10% of their significant PE assets are managed by UK based firms. They are giving their money to US firms – further deepening the negative feedback loop diminishing UK capital markets. The protection of the State is the primary duty of all governments. It is in the interest of all participants in the economy that conflict is minimised – and the only way to discourage aggression is to be prepared to fight. It is therefore an area to invest in. There is a really interesting article in yesterday’s Sunday Times, an interview with the CEO of Border to Coast, the UK’s largest pension fund. Rachel Elwell has £120 bln to invest on behalf of its pension savers – local authority funds that represent the employees of 18 local government pension schemes (LGPS) from Cumbria across the North to the Tyne, and down the East Coast to Sussex. She wants to invest local. Meanwhile, new Premier Andy Burnham has been getting a tough time, being asked difficult questions about what his No 10 North is going to achieve. The Torygraph basically says Burnham is guilty of treachery for even thinking about moving jobs to Madchester. Aye… back when I were a lad…. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
11 min
Blain’s Morning Porridge July 24th, 2026 “Regime Change usually leads to chaos.” The next few months are going to get interesting as markets react to the ongoing mess that is the Gulf, rising oil prices, wobbling stocks, rising bond yields, broken supply chains, and the reassessment of the AI “revolution”. Meanwhile, the US political cycle goes into the Mid-Terms. I would suggest everyone reads Regime Change , the new book on Imperial Trump, to understand what the last 18 months has been about. I predict the coming three months will become increasingly “interesting” in the Chinese sense of the word. There was a clear judder moment yesterday felt around global markets as the scale of the Iran War reversal became clear. It’s a wild fire that won’t stay out. It’s widened to include the Houthis threating the Red Sea choke point, the Bab-el-Mandeb , pushing oil back over $100. Its triggered renewed fears of inflation and supply chain dislocation. Interest rates are now expected to rise – at a time when the driver of the current market strength; the AI infrastructure capital free-for-all looks to be slowing. Stock markets slid and bond yields rose. That loud bang you heard might have been the AI Bubble popping. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
14 min
Blain’s Morning Porridge 23rd July 2026 “There is only one thing worse than having too little money, and that is having too much.” It’s a wake up and smell the coffee sort of morning in the AI markets. AI is here to stay. Everyone is using it. Why are prices tanking? It’s about competition, adoption and data sovereignty. Maybe it’s time for a rethink? How did it get so huge so fast? That’s a question about overly cheap liquidity and speculation, which is why Tesla’s numbers are so interesting. Yesterday Google confirmed the pace of its AI infrastructure spend will increase to $205 bln dollars next year. Second quarter income hit $112 bln, but it’s eaten into free-cash flow to the tune of negative $6bln while raising more debt, to “ capitalise on the AI opportunity ,” said the CFO. Exactly what is that opportunity? The other hyperscalers will say much the same thing when they report on Thursday next week. Collectively the four hyperscalers are expected to spend upwards of three-quarters of a trillion dollars next year on data centres, networks, energy, water and chips. The rest of the AI sector reports next month, when we’ll learn more about adoption and the picks and shovels of the current investment Klondike. Collectively they are taking so much liquidity out the capital markets bond analysts believe the scale of the AI build-out underlies the current steepness of the US yield curve – the AI spend is “ crowding out” the US government. It is the biggest private investment programme in global history. But suddenly it feels a little wobbly. What comes next in AI? You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
10 min
Blain’s Morning Porridge July 22nd, 2026 “Here comes the new boss, same as the old boss…” Regime Change occurred in the UK with relatively a few headless corpses left on the field of political failure… Burham is juggling with talent, spending and tax constraints, to maintain confidence. To succeed he needs to get radical. Social Housing is one avenue to growth he could pull off, and it could be funded off-balance sheet. The UK ain’t finished yet! We are at a very interesting point in the markets… with so many potential flashpoints threatening to erupt into crises – which will prove minor speedbumps? What will be the consequences as the Iran crisis deepens with the Houthis about to open a second front in the Red Sea? What would a full-blown reversal of the AI narrative do to the US economy as the new Chinese Open-Weight models threaten to overturn the expectations around adoption, profits and spending? All Topics for later this week as I catch up from a brief sailing break. Let’s start with matters close to home in the UK where our fractured politics have become a case-study in topsy-turvy modern politics. Will the new “improved” Burnham Labour V2.1 regime make it any more successful than the already forgotten Starmer/Reeves effort? You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
11 min
Blain’s Morning Porridge 20th, July 2026 “The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist revels in it; the realist adjusts the sails.” There may be multiple storms and whirlpools on the horizon, but the market remains convinced it will weather them all. That’s a sign of dangerous times. There are times to let the boat run free, and times to trim the sails and slow before something breaks with catastrophic consequences: will it be the AI Bubble, Debt, Iran & Oil, or a No-See-Um? Sorry for all the sailing allusions today, but we’re sailing for home after a fantastic week on the Solent. Well done Spain! How did Trump stay awake? I didn’t. You need to be an optimist to play this market. And an optimist you need to be, because market returns are not based on the brilliance of your own utterly brilliant analysis, but on what the whole herd of the market collectively believes – which is “ nothing to overly worry about” . Contrarians are only right when the crowd is proved wrong – which doesn’t happen as much as it should (for reasons discussed below.) The best investors are the ones who can strip out the crowd’s noise – often by taking long-term “patient” views on the basis even the market crowd cannot resist the long-term consequences of financial gravity. I’ve been thinking about it while sailing in the bright sunshine weather on the South Coast of England. I constantly see parallels between reading the markets and the tau of using the weather and tides to drive the boat. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
17 min
Blain’s Morning Porridge July 16th, 2026 “Oh, would some power give us the gift to see ourselves as others see us…” In the past 15 years the US economy has left Europe in the rear-view mirror. While America booms, Europe appears to be flatlining. The question is why? Americans say it’s entirely Europe’s fault: bad policies, failing politics, and lack of unity. However, the consequences of the (as yet unresolved) European Sovereign debt crisis triggered by the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 was the speedbump. This morning’s quote is from Robert Burns. It’s from “To a Louse”, which is very apt for this Morning’s Porridge. Sometimes we just don’t know how stupid, daft or misguided we are. Many of us are too thin-skinned to listen. Others take criticism with a pinch of salt – railing back against those who find fault on the basis our detractors are often blind hypocrites! But it’s worth listening to what folk say about us… even when it hurts. Recently an American Hedge Fund chum lambasted myself and an audience of Europeans for Europe’s failure to match US growth over the last 15 years – back then the two continents were about even in terms of per-capita GDP. Europe’s share of Global GDP has since tumbled from 30% to 17%. US GDP per capita is now double Europe’s. The USA is leading the innovation of tech and has become far more productive than Europe. My chum made some painful observations on European policy mistakes and explained the data. His point was simple – Europe should stop blaming Trump for its’ problems and focus on the internal reasons it is failing. It was one of these moments to listen and ask why it happened. So, I did listen. Europe has failed in many ways. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
9 min
Blain’s Morning Porridge July 13th, 2026 – Is Norway the model other economies should follow? “There is a huge benefit coming from a small country like Norway.” C’mon. England won, but Norway was sparkling. It’s a genuine shame they are out the World Cup, but didn’t they do well? There is much that Norway’s successful blend of capitalist social democracy could teach the rest of the West. Most countries squander their abilities and resources – not Norway. I’m notionally on holiday this week... but I will be writing brief comments on whatever amuses and intrigues me while sailing… This morning… Norway. I agree with the England manager Thomas Tuchel’s assessment of Saturday night’s Norway match. England were sloppy , and they were lucky – lucky to have Jude Bellingham so focused and skilled. On Wednesday England face Argentina as marginal favourites – the probability markets say between 52%-57% likely the Three Lions will reach the final. Messi vs Bellingham? Atlanta will be a marginally better venue that the Maimi pressure cooker. I have been relearning the chords for Wonderwall on my guitar! But Norway have been the absolute stars of the tournament. There may be a lesson in their success. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
12 min
Blain’s Morning Porridge July 10th, 2026 – What if the AI Bubble Fails to Deliver? “Expectations are the root of all heartache…” The AI market has been diving business expectations and markets – everyone believes it will deliver a growth, productivity and profit revolution across the global economy. What if it doesn’t? What if it’s not a leap forward, but just a step-change? What do Alcohol, Tobacco, Umpty Candy, Cannabis, Gambling, Fentanyl, Bloomberg and AI have in common? They were all “discovered” or invented by folk believing they would do good – but were monetised by profiteers who realised how addictive and mind numbing they were likely to be… I was thinking about this yesterday and realised that even an old abacus and pebbles chap like myself uses AI to make my day simpler and faster. My chum Claude can assemble data and facts on markets and targets faster than ever I could myself. But, if I had to pay more than the minimal cost I currently pay, I’d be struggling. And we all know current cost and future costs of AI will be oceans apart. Users will not get rich. The providers of AI services… might. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
16 min
Blain’s Morning Porridge July 9th, 2026 – Why I’d be voting for Binny MacBinface! “The problem with political jokes is that they get elected…” The fear of what might follow The Labour Government haunts the Gilts Market. Relief may come from the political implosion of Nigel Farage. Grubby Sleaze surrounds him as the UK’s much-loved Man of the People morphs into a discount-priced Mini-me version of Trump. The Crypto and graft entanglements that envelop him have shattered what made him so successful. Farage is no longer one of us. He is Them. It’s 10-years since the UK’s Natural Environment Council decided it be terwibbly democratic to let the Great British Public choose the name of its new polar research vessel. Someone suggested “ Boaty MacBoatface ” and everyone thought it a wonderful giggle. Naturally the comedy name won the popular vote… but the thought of the UK’s territorial ambitions being represented around the Southern Oceans by Boaty MacBoatface was too much for the British Antarctic Survey who would operate the vessel. A compromise was reached. The ship was named the Sir David Attenborough after a genuine national treasure. Since the ship and the drone submersible given the Boaty MacBoatface moniker were launched in 2020 they’ve done sterling research work. The great British Public like nothing more than a good old-fashioned belly-laugh at the expense of the establishment. Which leads me to wonder if Nigel Farage has just made a massive Binny MacBinface error. Wouldn’t it be funny if he loses the Clacton By-Election to Count Binface – the comedy successor to the Monster Raving Looney Party?
15 min
Blain’s Morning Porridge, July 8th, 2026: Is this the End of Nato? “Trump is America’s answer to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, weakening a superpower he meant to strengthen.” NATO has been the core of the Western Alliance and Transatlantic Economy. The men in the ill-fitting Florsheim dress shoes have broken it. What will follow is uncertain, but will clearly impact global markets and geopolitics to an enormous degree. The deepening Atlantic rift puts the need for European defence, sovereignty and resilience right at the top of the priority list. Will this week’s Ankara NATO summit be remembered as the moment NATO ruptured? The summit is heading for the rocks. The strongest and most successful military alliance and economic alignment in global history is cracked. If/when it splinters into broken shards, it will be the definitional end to the era of growth and prosperity that defined the American era. The end of the transatlantic economy will have massive consequences for global trade, markets, and geopolitical alliances. Every investor should be factoring in the probabilities it may happen with their portfolio structures in terms of bonds and tech. It will trigger a rethink/reset of literally every single aspect of modern societies in terms of who controls what, supply chains, and strategic sovereignty as “the pond” becomes a “sundering sea”. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
8 min
Blain’s Morning Porridge July 7th, 2026: Overturn this. “Some people believe Football is a matter of life and death. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that.” What Football fans would not want Donald Trump supporting their team? Who would say no to Trump’s superpower to reverse any referee decision? His intervention into the World Cup leaves the rest of the world shaking its collective head in disbelief. Another reason to laugh at America. These things have consequences. When is America going to wake up? “Overturn this…” The Belgian Football Association comment on beating the USA last night said it all. Overturn this. Donald Trump has an unsurpassed ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The World Cup was on course to be a massive Soft Power win for America. Fans may have been fleeced by FIFA, the official ticket tout, but generally they’ve loved it. Some of the games have been fantastic. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
14 min
Blain’s Morning Porridge July 6th, 2026 “The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he did not exist…” England will take a confidence boost from the World Cup win vs Mexico. The Russians will be furious – their war plan requires The West’s resilience and pride is weakened through disinformation and instability. Countering Cognitive Warfare requires the acknowledgement it’s happening, that we fight it, and acknowledge our strengths and weaknesses, and that unity wins! “C’mon England!” Not words you would ever expect a Scotsman to say…. “ Gentlemen in England still abed shall think themselves accursed they were not there (in front of their tellies at 3 am) and hold their manhood cheap while any speaks that watched them upon the bloody field in Mexico…” Well done, England! Beating Mexico 3-2! Of course I did not watch. ( Why would I? In the real world I support two teams: Scotland and whoever is playing England! ) I expected to wake up to the news England’s hearts had been ceremonially hacked out and their bodies cast down the steps of the pyramid that is the Azteca. Nope. The World Cup is getting interesting. Bring on the Nogs! Engerland..! Engerland..! and we all like Vindaloo … maybe even in the Saracen’s Head in Glasgow? (maybe not…) Time to support the Auld Enemy! Meanwhile, one of my great chums found himself on the front page of the Times this weekend. Steve has erected a piece of the Berlin Wall in his back garden. Lefty that I am, I consider the Berlin Wall to be a monument to the success of Free Markets, Democracy and Freedom. A similar chunk stands outside the Imperial War Museum as a reminder of who won the Cold War – a bloodless war the West won by outcompeting the Soviets economically. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
12 min
Blain’s Morning Porridge July 3rd, 2026 “Reorganising the civil service is like drawing a knife through a bowl of marbles.” Compare and contrast the USA and Britain. The new country and the old. Our problems are not in our inventiveness, our skills or our people, but in how our societies work. We suffer from Politics that don’t govern, Businesses that don’t share, and Bureaucracies that don’t deliver. These are problems of late-stage democracies in need of a reset. Politicians keep promising – maybe one day one of them will actually make changes! Happy Birthday America! Have a great party! Celebrate a quarter millennium of awesomeness! Across the pond in Europe we sincerely mean that. We have much to thank the USA for and much to be proud of. Britain’s finest sailed the ocean to the new world and forged a nation. It was a reaction to a far-away tyrant’s actions, founded on the basis all men are created equal and may only be ruled with the consent of the governed . The new state attracted Europe’s huddled masses giving it the strength and diversity to thrive. Today it is the most powerful nation on Earth – as its’ leader keeps reminding us. The USA has worked pretty well – thus far! You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
14 min
Blain’s Morning Porridge July 2nd, 2026 – We need a revolution in Defence “Generals always prepare to fight the last war, especially if they won it.” The UK’s long-delayed Defence Investment Plan was a final humiliation for Sir Keir Starmer as he struggled to gloss over the gaping defence funding gap. But it’s not how much is spent, but what it is spent on that matters. The frenetic pace of Mil-Tec evolution in the wake of the Ukraine War highlights how the next war will likely be fought. It’s time for a complete overhaul on the defence establishment’s approach to rearmament. (PODCAST TO FOLLOW) I sometimes wonder if the Houses of Parliament has a window cleaner? What do our politicians and civil service mandarins see when they gaze out at the geopolitical weather? They know the roof is leaking, but to fix it will be expensive and the kitty is empty. Why not throw another tarpaulin over it, and hope it doesn’t rain? Such a hope is not a great strategy here in Britain where weather lore says: “ how do you know when it’s going to rain? Because it’s not raining yet?” Yes. Rain is a metaphor for conflict. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
17 min
Blain’s Morning Porridge July 1st, 2026 “It’s not the immediate damage, but the unforeseen second and third order consequences that really hurt.” 2026 has been an interesting year thus far. A number of themes including AI, Geopolitics, Debt and Innovation have driven the flow of markets, which have very high upside expectations and few worries about downside risks. I would remind readers of Blain Mantra No 1: “ The markets have but one objective: to inflict the maximum amount of pain on the maximum number of participants ”. Hey-Ho, and on we go... It’s the first of July, and we are at the half-way stage of 2026 – and hasn’t it been fascinating? I thought it might be interesting to skim through what we expected, what happened, and where we might be headed next. Its worth starting from the premise that markets are not enlightened, all-knowing crystal balls, but simply the sum of weighted stupidity – in other words, expectations are based on hopes, while reality is often the result of mistakes. That said, explaining the whole of the global economy and markets in 2 hours before breakfast and doing my day-job is a tough ask, but there are four very visible market themes that stand out in my mind – and of course, they are all inter-related, and they have all repeated themselves through history. This time it might be different - we live in a very connected world. As someone once said: “A toddler having a tantrum in Washington makes old men smile in Beijing.” You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
15 min
“He can even quote “The Life of Brian” without sounding like a dalek. How bad can it be?” Andy Burnham, the UK Premier in waiting, has laid out his vision and plan for the UK. It didn’t scare the horses and contains some interesting ideas. What it didn’t say is about some of the big issues and “courageous” spending decisions is worrying. But the idea of moving the centre of UK political gravity out of London is inspired. Who knows… it might even work! Andy Burnham talked well. He presented well. He smiled. He sounded like he believes in what he is saying. His eyebrows worked overtime as they screamed charisma and engagement. Yesterday was all about Burnham – the real-world Mr Deeds from Manchester who is going to roll up his sleeves, fix Broken Britain and save the Labour Party. Maybe. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
11 min
“Decisions to secure our economic future are not easy – but they are critical.” Andy Burnham promises the UK a national reboot. Critical to his success will be his choice of chancellor, and the relationship with the financial markets. Rachel Reeves is closely associated with the failed Starmer premiership – but she knows how to do the job and has credibility with the markets. With new leadership she could prove a much better choice than other contenders. Who will UK Prime Minister in Waiting Andy Burnham choose to be the next Chancellor the Exchequer? It’s the second most important job in the country – the role of national CFO is critical. It requires a competent politician with a grasp of finance, bonds, taxation, project management, and central banking, but it’s likely Burnham will offer the post to secure the support of political rivals with careers spent in politics rather than commerce. Will it go to Ed Miliband, the least popular minister in a very unpopular cabinet, or has it already been promised to Wes Streeting, former Health Minister, in return from him standing down his own premiership goal in return for the job? I have a suggestion for Burnham. How about Rachel Reeves? That would be a bold call. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!