Mato just raised pre-seed Read more
Podcast charts
Published by Bill Blain
Bill Blain is well know market commentator and has published the daily Morning Porridge explaining markets sincee 2007. This podcast is a daily update of the Porridge.
On the charts
Every published chart this podcast appears in, in the snapshot behind this page. Each one links to the chart it came off.
The Mato Topic Intelligence Platform does not report this podcast as charting in a published category in this snapshot.
From the feed
The latest episodes published to this podcast’s own RSS feed. Titles and descriptions are the publisher’s.
Blain’s Morning Porridge August 28th, 2026 “Then we shall fight in the shade…” Tensions between Moscow and Europe are rising. There are rumours of war. While Western nations seek to rearm and adopt the lessons learnt by Ukraine, a bubble has developed in Mil-Tec arounds autonomy and drones. Defence investment is not a speculative opportunity – but a key issue for the sustainability and longevity of nations. It’s a complex investment landscape that requires specialist expert knowledge. Key Takeaways: Defence investment is an economic necessity. It will not be buried by the developing Mil-Tec bubble. Private capital firms rushing into the “Total Addressable Market” (TAM) rather than understanding the need is creating the frothy investment market. The rules of defence investment are very different to Tech. Ultimately; there is one monopoly buyer of military kit – governments, but geopolitical shifts, changing alliances, and the reinvention and creation of new defence contractor “primes” underlies the re-growth of the sector. The depth of US capital markets is funding the bubble – European investors have been slow to commit to Defence. Understanding the evolution of the battlespace (which exists in multiple dimensions) is the key to due diligence of defence opportunities. Military reality matters far more than financial hype. Investment needs to be considered but immediate. As we wait to hear all about what Kevin Warsh says at Jackson Hole, I thought it might be interesting to write about my day job - financing the new Defence Investment Fund; Spitfire Strategic Capital . You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
Blain’s Morning Porridge August 27th, 2026 “I’d like be thought of as a decent human being….” Celebrate Dolly. A reminder of real American exceptionalism and authenticity. What will replace her in the new America where Mega Tech and AI can settle the wrongs they do with no-liabilities settlements? Where the Vice President is a manufactured product of Billionaire’s Libertarian philosophy? Where the President runs the country as a fief to be milked dry? But can Authenticity can be bought and sold by the yard? At some point the people are going to question what’s really happening. Key Takeaways Dolly Parton’s passing represents the end of an Age. Her authenticity was entirely of her own construction and on her own terms. There are no politicians like her. Authenticity is political currency – but it is increasingly scarce. Meta’s sudden settlement on child social media addiction is the new reality – true corporate power is the ability to payoff wrongdoing with no admission of guilt. Trump’s political success was persuading voters he was the authentic voice of the left-behind and would restore them – but now he sits at the centre of the coterie of tech billionaires who seek a new version of America. The Billionaire vision of a new America is, as yet, unclear but it sure won’t be “all men are created equal”. Some are very much more equal than 99.99% of their fellow Americans. The flags are flying at half-mast across the US in a mark of respect for Dolly Parton. They call it grief, but it’s a celebration of a genuine life lived well and loved well. But it is notable because it’s the end of an era – where Dolly’s success and politicians’ power were factors of their authenticity. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
Blain’s Morning Porridge August 25th, 2026 “Financial Gravity is shifting East – as will investment.” One rule of finance is “follow the money”. The ructions and rising doubts on the sustainability of the US Treasury Market and dollar in the evolving post-US era economy means it may be time for investment transition strategies – where will the future lie? What aspects of US and other Western Democracies will thrive, and how much more investible will China and, perhaps, India become? What are the risks? Key Takeaways: The West is no longer the only game in town. Concerns over the sustainability of Western debt, economic growth, political stability, America First transactionalism, and “financialisation” have eroded confidence. The unravelling of NATO and western division has accelerated decline – the West is no longer a cohesive economic block – and is less economically and militarily formidable than it was. China’s economy has evolved swiftly and leaves the state command and control economy look like a viable alternative to the West. China is not self-sufficient. There are still areas the West can maintain comparative advantage to trade from. The West is still “richer” in GDP capita terms. Europe faces a choice – pragmatic reciprocal engagement with China may be better than trying to deal with unstable populist politics in the USA. But that will further strengthen China’s strategic aim of splitting the Western Democracies. Longer-term, India’s demographics may prove a second option for Europe – both seek growth and markets. Perhaps a new European/Indian trade alliance could become a new trading block? Headlines on the front page of the Thunderer of London this morning is the news the Rausing family - billionaire inventors of the tetra Pak – have taken $1 bln out the US stock market. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
Blain’s Morning Porridge August 24th, 2026 “Change before you have to…” This week is going to be… “interesting”. Confidence in the US financial markets and system is under pressure. The US owes more than $40 trillion. Bessent’s intervention in bond markets has backfired, the market is waiting to judge new Fed Head Kevin Warsh, and Trump has kicked off a new trade war with Canada. The USA’s Virtuous Sovereign Trinity of the Dollar, the Treasury Market, and Political Competency looks well-wobbly. Meanwhile, the latest documentary on Boeing shows how the myth of US exceptionalism is under pressure. Key Takeaways: This could become a confidence and liquidity crisis if markets continue to pressure Treasuries. Bessent’s attempt to manipulate the US yield curve is seen as political interference in the Fed’s role – and has backfired. QE worked in 2010-2022 because inflation wasn’t a threat, debt quantum’s were manageable, there was consensus, and the dollar’s dominance was not in question. Today, the situation is very different. What happens to market confidence if the Fed Put no longer works? Kevin Warsh’s credibility is the main question to be answered at Jackson Hole. Will he try to please the president, equivocate, or please markets? He could trigger a Treasury breakout. A bond market sell-off is manageable – but only if the Fed retains credibility! A treasury crisis could impact all US assets. The new documentary on Boeing “Freefall”, is a case study on how the financialisation of US firms enabled by the depth of US capital markets may be about to unravel. This is shaping up to be a very dangerous week for markets and the US financial system.
Blain’s Morning Porridge August 20th, 2026 “There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.” With US debt about the breach $40 trillion, Scotty Bessent intervened to stem rising long-end yields. The market loved it, but the reality is that distorting interest rates has all kinds of consequences. That includes the risk an economy focused entirely on financial returns isn’t spotting or addressing real world threats to jobs, growth, conflict, the environment and climate. Maybe it’s time to let rates normalise? Key Takeaways Rising normalised Bond yields may be a cure rather than a crisis for overly financialised Western Economies. Cheap money distorts asset values, and economic behaviours. Bessent’s pump priming of the Long-End is market pleasing, liquidity enhancing, and confirmation the Fed Put is still there… but it’s like another round of Columbian marching powder at a slowing party. The legacy of 18 years of post 2008 GFC policy has been financial asset inflation, market froth, speculation and undeliverable market narratives that get buried in the expectation low rates will drive markets forever. Financially Sovereign Nations don’t default, but bad, financialised policy leading to inflation may ultimately unravel bond markets and make them unsustainable. Financial speculation, encouraged by policy distortions, distracts from the real-world requirements to enhance defence, infrastructure, housing, energy and resilience. Interesting day in Bonds. As I write this morning, the US Debt Clock (the total the US Government owes) stands at $39.46 trillion – tomorrow it will the crash through $40 trillion. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
Blain’s Morning Porridge August 19th, 2026 “What do you think of the French Revolution?” … “It’s too early to say.” The Chinese will be delighted. Western Economies are increasingly polarised and fractured. The US president calls anyone opposing him a “Communist”. The Right Wing threatens mass deportations, while the new emerging Populist Left is demanding redistribution and equality. Destabilising Western Democracies through fake news and disinformation is destroying the resilience of nations to resist. How should markets react? Key Takeaways: Western societies are increasingly divided into haves and have-nots. Hence the rise of populism on both left and right. That has impacted social and political cohesion – the factors that determine resilience, a critical national-security asset. The West is already at war – fake news, disinformation, propaganda, sabotage and cyber-attacks are undermining stability and resilience. The costs to counter hostile nations will be enormous in terms of resources required. Industrial capacity in the west has been neglected. Defence depends on rebuilding capacity, supply chains, labour and skills, and logistical depth. Money is tight after years of QE and welfare spending. The financial markets are confused about defence – it’s a critical part of the infrastructure of democracy, but many institutional investors still regard it as “ incompatible with responsible investing ”! Born in the early 1960s, I am one of a fortunate generation. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
Blain’s Morning Porridge August 18th, 2026 “Turns out you didn’t need a war to destroy the economy…” 19 months of Donald J Trump have been extraordinary – the unravelling of alliances, the forever war with Iran, and the belated discovery that financial clout doesn’t translate into geopolitical power. While the Mid-terms may make Trump a lame-duck, the consequences of Trump will hamstring the USA for decades and colour a new economic reality. Key Takeaways Markets are making a mistake if they think Trump is just a temporary noise and aberration. The consequences of the Trump era could take decades to correct and will be very significant on the dollar order of markets. Trump has squandered American’s real global strength – its alliances. From the Gulf, The China Seas, to Europe, nations are now uncertain of America’s reliability and credibility. Half of America’s ambassadorial posts are vacant. Many others have been filled with presidential cronies. Financial supremacy is not the same as industrial supremacy – dollars can’t be turned into skilled labour, new ships, planes, tanks or missiles overnight. China has time on its side. Its’ proxies: Iran, Russia and North Korea, can force America to consume war stocks at rates it can’t replace. China wins if America is exhausted before it has to do anything. Yesterday was an interesting one for Trump watchers. The American President pulled the USA out of planned military exercises with South Korea – citing his great relationship with Kim the Plump of North Korea. Then he threatened to bomb Oman if it gets in the way of his deal with Iran. What deal? You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
Blain’s Morning Porridge August 17th, 2026 “Euphoria one day, the sound of banks crashing the next…” The factor that’s enabled the extraordinary success and longevity of the AI bubble has been the willingness of the markets to finance it. What happens if the liquidity machine driving AI were to suddenly stop? As the limits of bond markets, private credit, and using insurance companies to park risk, become increasingly apparent – what would a liquidity event do to current markets? Ouch! Key Takeaways: Equities and bonds are diverging. Equities think the party continues. Bonds believe inflation and higher rates are nailed on. They can’t both be right Liquidity if the key factor driving markets – not belief in AI. If it dries up, then the whole market wobbles. A Liquidity Event is probably hiding in plain sight – perhaps a US treasury auction that goes awry, or an insurance company taking a thumping on a credit loss. Risk has not disappeared – it has been transferred from the banking sector to the asset management sector. Because investors think Elon Musk will make a digital data centre work doesn’t make it a fact – until, maybe, he does. Markets are neither smart nor clever. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
Blain’s Morning Porridge, August 14th, 2026 “The winner is often the team that makes the least mistakes.” Markets tend to regard Populist Politics as a threat. They risk destabilisation, dent stability and raise questions about competency. Although Nigel Farage won the Clacton by-election, his brand is badly damaged and that puts Reform in trouble. The question is whether the traditional parties can regain electoral prominence and put in place the necessary policies to repair Broken Britain’s infrastructure and finances – and attract investment. Key Takeaways Farage won the Clacton by-election, but his political brand may be damaged beyond repair. The high-tide of UK political populism may have passed – but the resentments behind its appeal, and which drove Brexit, still remain unaddressed. The challenge is now on traditional parties to deliver – how will they solve the multiple issues around Broken Britain? Sounder politics may put government finances on a stronger footing. Early Friday Morning we learnt Nigel Farage , the leader of the UK populist Reform Party, won the much-derided Clacton By-Election. He scored more than double the votes of his closest political rival – Count Binface , a joke candidate. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
Blain’s Morning Porridge August 13th, 2026 “Complexity does not eliminate risk – it simply hides it in plain sight.” The AI infrastructure build out already dominates credit market funding. Now Nvidia will effectively securitise its chips to its market though a panel of private capital markets firms that lend it credibility. The worry is complex and appealing deal structures will simply hide the risks inherent in AI – and increase the likelihood of a correlated crash when something inevitably breaks. Key takeaways Financial complexity will make AI easier to finance – but it does not change the economic risks. The securitisation of Nvidia chips has the potential to accelerate the AI boom – but comes with increased correlation risks. Nvidia is “guilty” of circular financing – funding its customers to buy its chips and using the markets to absorb the risks. There are questions about chip longevity – how soon will they become obsolete or be replaced by competitors? The degree to which Nvidia risks now links hyperscalers, datacentres, energy, water, and the AI industry is enormous, and could destabilise the economy in a crisis. There are multiple points of potential failure. What’s not to like about the new Nvidia $500 bln Chip Funding Programme? You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
Blain’s Morning Porridge August 10th, 2026 “When the evil of a snowflake in June could still be the source of relief…” 2026 looks likely to be the warmest year ever. Oceans are charged with energy to drive ever larger storm systems. Wildfires and droughts are ravaging the land. What if this is only the beginning? What if the climate is about to stage a chaotic breakout? Just how resilient will humanity be to a war with an implacable enemy that will give no quarter? What might it mean for the economy? Key Takeaways Humanity is ingenious and great at innovating – which has historically made us robust and resilient to the challenge of conflict. Nations can win wars through force or diplomacy, but no one can negotiate with physics to turn around Climate Change. Defence and Climate Mitigation are linked – defence against aggression, and protection from a changing environment are economic costs. The economic consequences of climate change will be huge – and therefore tremendous economic opportunities. The big themes will include water, cooling, energy, food, drought and resilient infrastructure. Climate mitigation may be a war that is never won, but one we learn to live with. The path of Human economic/technological advancement, sadly, has largely been a story of how we adapt, innovate and rise to conflict. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
Blain’s Morning Porridge August 10th, 2026 “When the evil of a snowflake in June could still be the source of relief…” 2026 looks likely to be the warmest year ever. Oceans are charged with energy to drive ever larger storm systems. Wildfires and droughts are ravaging the land. What if this is only the beginning? What if the climate is about to stage a chaotic breakout? Just how resilient will humanity be to a war with an implacable enemy that will give no quarter? What might it mean for the economy? Key Takeaways Humanity is ingenious and great at innovating – which has historically made us robust and resilient to the challenge of conflict. Nations can win wars through force or diplomacy, but no one can negotiate with physics to turn around Climate Change. Defence and Climate Mitigation are linked – defence against aggression, and protection for a changing environment are economic costs. The economic consequences of climate change will be huge – and therefore tremendous economic opportunities. The big themes will include water, cooling, energy, food, drought and resilient infrastructure. Climate mitigation may be a war that is never won, but one we learn to live with. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
Blain’s Morning Porridge August 7th, 2026 “Debt to GDP is a distraction – ask how it got so high and look at system to understand its’ fragilities.” The real strength of the US economy is not its military or the dollar’s exorbitant privilege, but the depth of its capital markets - which have financed the most successful economy in history. The risk is not how large the US deficit is, but how sustainable are America’s capital markets to mounting fiscal pressures, market shifts and geopolitical forces? LINK TO PODCAST KEY TAKEAWAYS: $40 trillion of National Debt is not the problem. It’s a symptom of government. The strength of the USA’s capital markets allowed the economy to overcome traditional debt/GDP hinderances to growth. Ultra-low interest rates distorted financial asset markets leading to changed market psychologies such as risk appetite for speculation. The market is less experienced and resilient than it thinks. US Treasuries underly the strength of the capital markets – but are increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical events, changing global trade and the dollar. There is a growing danger diminishing political credibility will impact confidence in capital markets. Sometime in the next few days the USA’s national debt will smash through $40 trillion dollars. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
Blain’s Morning Porridge, August 6th, 2026 “The nature of poverty is to disempower and distract…” The tide of American Politics has turned dramatically extreme in recent days. The narrative is no longer about why Trump is haemorrhaging electoral support but has shifted to whether the Democrats can unite to win the Midterms in November and present a credible challenge to Trump’s MAGA successor in the 2028 presidential election. The coming gladiatorial contest between Right and Left populists will be watched closely by concerned global investors. Key Takeaways US Mid-terms in November will be contentious and polarising, raising long-term doubts. MAGA will fight a scare campaign on basis “ Progressive Socialist ” Democrats are Radical Left Islamic/communist stooges. Progressives and Democrats will campaign based on Trump’s multiple failures. Global markets will become increasingly fearful of polarisation, populism and rising US political instability. Neither party will do much to stem the accelerating budget deficit, the decline in US hegemonic power, or the risk that the dollar’s status is diminished. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
Blain’s Morning Porridge, August 5th, 2026 “I spent it all on fast boats, fast cars and fast women, and squandered the rest…” As we fearfully watch the markets as the liabilities and exaggerations of AI threaten to unravel, or ponder what games arch-manipulator Scotty Bessant is playing with the Yen… there are times to sit back and wonder what life is really all about? The answer is in doing what makes you happy. In my case its sailing… Instead of trying to explain markets, let me run through how the yacht I was sailing just won Vintage Class at the 200th Cowes Week Sailing Regatta. Key takeaways: A well-prepared yacht, a crew that know their jobs, and the ambition to win. The importance of a plan and communicating it. Being adaptable, eyes in and out the boat, and prepared for the “punch in the mouth” moment. Not being surprised when surprised. Taking advantages of opportunities and not making mistakes. Win by enjoying yourself. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
Blain’s Morning Porridge July 31st, 2026 “Judge me by how many times I fell down and got right back up again.” Fifty years of political dither leaves the UK looking broken. Faced with massive constrains from taxation and bond markets, there are limited choices from tinkering with spending while trying to look good enough ahead of the next election. Britain needs something more radical – and a complete reform of the system and process. Key Takeaways The steepness of yield curves reflects not only inflation concerns, but rising doubts on political stability. Long-term sustainability of bond markets relies on political credibility. The UK’s major problem is not political policy – but the bureaucracy and process around it. Lubricate the wheels of the economy by fixing the process and it will work better. Housing could be a great example of how to boost the economy. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
Blain’s Morning Porridge July 29th, 2026 - AI is dead. Long Live AI. “Remember…. All I am offering is the truth. Nothing more.” Markets are all-a-wobble as the AI revolution morphs from a picks and shovels Klondike into a “who is going to make most money” proposition. About time. Who will be the winners and losers in the long-term. In the short-term there is going to be pain and losses as the current high-water retreats. Key takeaways this morning: Apple becomes No 1 Stock because it stood still. Winners will be firms that best integrate AI into their business and boost the bottom line. Losers will stem from leverage plays, collateral and capacity issues as the market continues to evolve and shift tracks. AI boom is not just a Tech story – it’s also geopolitical as China is set to take large part of market. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
Blain’s Morning Porridge, July 27th, 2026 “Are investment returns more important than security?” The UK has 6 relatively new “mega” Local Government Pension Schemes. They are investing in the UK and globally. But are they focused on the right things? Less than 10% of their significant PE assets are managed by UK based firms. They are giving their money to US firms – further deepening the negative feedback loop diminishing UK capital markets. The protection of the State is the primary duty of all governments. It is in the interest of all participants in the economy that conflict is minimised – and the only way to discourage aggression is to be prepared to fight. It is therefore an area to invest in. There is a really interesting article in yesterday’s Sunday Times, an interview with the CEO of Border to Coast, the UK’s largest pension fund. Rachel Elwell has £120 bln to invest on behalf of its pension savers – local authority funds that represent the employees of 18 local government pension schemes (LGPS) from Cumbria across the North to the Tyne, and down the East Coast to Sussex. She wants to invest local. Meanwhile, new Premier Andy Burnham has been getting a tough time, being asked difficult questions about what his No 10 North is going to achieve. The Torygraph basically says Burnham is guilty of treachery for even thinking about moving jobs to Madchester. Aye… back when I were a lad…. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
Blain’s Morning Porridge July 24th, 2026 “Regime Change usually leads to chaos.” The next few months are going to get interesting as markets react to the ongoing mess that is the Gulf, rising oil prices, wobbling stocks, rising bond yields, broken supply chains, and the reassessment of the AI “revolution”. Meanwhile, the US political cycle goes into the Mid-Terms. I would suggest everyone reads Regime Change , the new book on Imperial Trump, to understand what the last 18 months has been about. I predict the coming three months will become increasingly “interesting” in the Chinese sense of the word. There was a clear judder moment yesterday felt around global markets as the scale of the Iran War reversal became clear. It’s a wild fire that won’t stay out. It’s widened to include the Houthis threating the Red Sea choke point, the Bab-el-Mandeb , pushing oil back over $100. Its triggered renewed fears of inflation and supply chain dislocation. Interest rates are now expected to rise – at a time when the driver of the current market strength; the AI infrastructure capital free-for-all looks to be slowing. Stock markets slid and bond yields rose. That loud bang you heard might have been the AI Bubble popping. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
Blain’s Morning Porridge 23rd July 2026 “There is only one thing worse than having too little money, and that is having too much.” It’s a wake up and smell the coffee sort of morning in the AI markets. AI is here to stay. Everyone is using it. Why are prices tanking? It’s about competition, adoption and data sovereignty. Maybe it’s time for a rethink? How did it get so huge so fast? That’s a question about overly cheap liquidity and speculation, which is why Tesla’s numbers are so interesting. Yesterday Google confirmed the pace of its AI infrastructure spend will increase to $205 bln dollars next year. Second quarter income hit $112 bln, but it’s eaten into free-cash flow to the tune of negative $6bln while raising more debt, to “ capitalise on the AI opportunity ,” said the CFO. Exactly what is that opportunity? The other hyperscalers will say much the same thing when they report on Thursday next week. Collectively the four hyperscalers are expected to spend upwards of three-quarters of a trillion dollars next year on data centres, networks, energy, water and chips. The rest of the AI sector reports next month, when we’ll learn more about adoption and the picks and shovels of the current investment Klondike. Collectively they are taking so much liquidity out the capital markets bond analysts believe the scale of the AI build-out underlies the current steepness of the US yield curve – the AI spend is “ crowding out” the US government. It is the biggest private investment programme in global history. But suddenly it feels a little wobbly. What comes next in AI? You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com , and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
Ranking source
Apple Podcasts rankings via the Mato Topic Intelligence Platform.
Observed September 17, 2026. Cached outside the daily freshness window; the positions keep the date they were taken on.
Apple and Apple Podcasts are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.
Pairs with
Bring this source into Mato to read its transferable patterns, then turn them into an original show for your own audience.