Noise Cancelling with Neil Woodford

Will AI take your job? Anthropic's economic scenarios model says AI could make the US economy 30% bigger by 2030 and put 1 in 5 knowledge workers out of work. Neil Woodford runs the model live and shows who gets the money when AI does the work. In this episode of The Noise Cancelling Podcast, Jon Adair and Neil Woodford break down Anthropic's 2030 AI economy forecast: three scenarios for AI and the economy, what happens to wages and unemployment, why the labour share falls from 60p to 45p in the pound, and what it means for investors, graduates, the UK economy and anyone in knowledge work.

UK inflation is falling while oil is up 35% and gilt yields are at an 18-year high. Neil Woodford explains why the 4-5% inflation forecasts are wrong again, what is actually in the CPI basket, and why the bond market may be pricing the wrong story. The Telegraph says British inflation hits 4-5% by Christmas. The Bank of England, the City and the academic economists said the same thing in March, when oil was $120. July came in at 2.9%, food inflation at 1.3%. In this episode Jon Adair argues the inflation surge case as hard as he can and Neil Woodford takes it apart leg by leg: the energy shock and the price cap, food, second-round effects and wages, and the bond market. Neil puts a number on December inflation and explains why most of it is already written. He covers why gas and electricity are 3% of the basket (half what they were in the 1980s), why 55% of the pump price is tax, why UK pay growth at a six-year low means there is no wage spiral, and why the gilt market is following US Treasury yields rather than a UK inflation problem. Then the bigger question: is this a new inflationary age, or the start of a period of disinflation driven by energy supply, China and AI? And if he's wrong, what happens.

Is the UK's productivity crisis actually real? The ONS has quietly admitted its Labour Force Survey overstated UK employment, and the HMRC tax data tells a completely different story about the UK economy, your taxes and interest rates. In this episode, Neil Woodford explains what the tax records really show about UK productivity, why the official survey invented half a million workers who don't exist, and how one wrong number fed both the OBR forecast that drove Rachel Reeves' tax rises and the Bank of England's view of how fast the economy can grow before rates must stay high. We also get into the collapse in graduate jobs and what it says about AI adoption in the UK, whether Britain's productivity has genuinely accelerated since 2024, and how the UK really compares with the G7. Stay to the end for what a correction means for the November Budget, mortgage rates, gilts and rate-sensitive UK stocks, and where Neil sees the opportunity. Read Neil's full written analysis Neil's first piece on this from 2024

Neil Woodford has been answering questions about investing for 35 years – and every one of them comes down to seven decisions. In part one of this three-part series, Neil and Jon Adair cover the funnel: the three decisions that take you from every company in the world down to a shortlist worth owning. You'll learn why reported profit tells you almost nothing about whether a business is any good, the only three numbers Neil would keep if forced to choose (PE, debt to EBITDA, and return on capital employed), how to judge a moat and a management team, and why Neil calls valuation "an educated, informed guess" – and means it as a compliment. Part 2 covers position sizing and portfolio construction. Part 3: when to sell, and how to hold your nerve. Subscribe so you don't miss them. Read the framework: The Seven Decisions, Explained – every piece on Noise Cancelling is tagged to the decision it belongs to: The Noise Cancelling app is free to join, and it will read Neil's pieces to you: This video is for information and education only. It is not investment advice, and nothing in it is a recommendation to buy or sell any investment. Capital is at risk. Seek independent financial advice before making investment decisions.

Britain's housing crisis is a myth. Neil Woodford has run money for over 35 years, and in this episode he tests the UK housing market's most repeated story against 55 years of data: mortgage payments as a share of take-home pay are close to their long-run average, buying costs less per month than renting the same home, and real house prices have been falling for five years. So why can't young people buy? The average first-time buyer was 23 in 1960 and is 34 today. The answer is not affordability. It is a banking rule written after the financial crisis: capital requirements that make high loan-to-value mortgages uneconomic for banks to write. Nobody banned the 95% mortgage. It died of unprofitability, and UK mortgage approvals have run 40% below normal for 15 years. Then the investment question. Housebuilders trade at roughly 70p per pound of assets while the banks have re-rated back above book. Is the market right about the builders, or is it pricing a suppressed market as a dead one? Neil gives his position, what would change his mind, and what he is watching: the regulator's decision on loan-to-income caps, due within months.

Is UK wealth inequality actually rising? Wes Streeting calls inequality "the fracture running through modern Britain", and the coming budget leans on the same story. Neil Woodford has spent weeks in the data, and it says something very different. In this episode, Neil and Jon work through what the official numbers show: the top 10 percent's share of British wealth was 56 percent in 1980 and 57 percent four decades later, flat through the biggest asset boom in the country's history. They explain why compounding means wealth gaps should widen automatically, and what cancelled it: the occupational pension revolution, faster pay growth at the bottom, and a tax system where the top 1 percent of earners now pay 28 percent of all income tax. Then the measurement problem. The gap between Britain's richest and poorest fifth is 12 to 1 before taxes and benefits, and 3.3 to 1 after. Same country, same year, same statisticians. Which number you get quoted depends on who is quoting it. Finally: does inequality actually damage growth? Neil's answer, and what it means for the tax rises now being floated ahead of the budget.

The UK has announced $59 billion of data centre investment since 2023, and the National Grid cannot power it. 140 data centres are sitting in the connection queue asking for 50GW; the UK's peak demand this year was 45GW. In this episode of Noise Cancelling, Jon explains how the grid connection queue actually works, and Neil Woodford explains why he believes this is an energy policy failure decades in the making. We cover the three things that make the queue unfixable on current policy: connection waits stretching past 2035, why no large gas plant has been built since 2016, and why industrial electricity in the UK costs four times what it does in the US. OpenAI has already put its UK Stargate project on hold. Then the investor question: if announced capacity is not delivered capacity, where does the capital actually have to go first? Transmission, grid supply chains, nuclear including SMRs, and gas peaking. Watch the queue, watch Ofgem reform, and watch which hyperscale campuses actually break ground.

Neil Woodford says UK interest rates are heading below 3% next year, and the new Prime Minister has almost nothing to do with it. The consensus says Britain has a structural growth problem. The data says something different: the UK economy is waiting on one number. In this episode, we explain who actually buys Britain. Households account for roughly 60p of every pound of UK GDP, and since the pandemic, they have been saving at nearly double the American rate. British banks now hold over £500 billion more in deposits than they have lent out. That savings mountain, not Westminster rhetoric, is what decides whether Britain grows. Neil explains why the Bank of England's sticky inflation fears have been wrong all year, why the household savings ratio is the single most important number in the UK economy, and where inflation and interest rates land over the next 12 months. Plus: the sectors that look mispriced if he's right, and the data releases that would confirm the view or kill it.

Neil Woodford on the war the market refuses to price. Missiles are hitting the Gulf, America is back at war, and the S&P 500 finished the week up 1%. The institutions that modelled this conflict predicted catastrophe. The market looked at the same war and said no. One of them is wrong. Jon and Neil unpack the biggest forecasting failure since Brexit: how the IEA, the Bank of England and the EIA all got the oil shock wrong, and how the market repriced the war line by line while the models stood still. Neil explains why complex economic models fail structurally, what he uses instead (one number, no model), and the scenarios that would prove him wrong, from a Bank of England rate rise to the closure of a second strait. 🔗 Links & Resources Read Neil's companion piece, Truth Is Ever to Be Found in Simplicity: The Noise Cancelling app, new this week: https://apps.apple.com/app/id6784789879 Visit https://www.noisecancelling.co/apps for more information About The Noise Cancelling Podcast Neil Woodford and Jon Adair cut through financial noise: what moved, what it means, and what would change their minds. Hosts: Neil Woodford, Jon Adair Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ncwithnw

UK stocks are being taken private at a record pace: this year, takeover bids for London-listed companies have run at roughly £60bn against under £600m raised in new IPOs, and Neil Woodford argues that this wave of M&A is the clearest sign in years that UK equities are undervalued. In this episode, Woodford and Jon Adair break down why the FTSE and London stock market trade at such a deep discount to the US, what a 75% takeover premium reveals about UK share prices, whether British stocks are cheap or a value trap, and where Woodford sees value across UK banks, oil and housebuilders. We posted a companion explainer on the cyclically adjusted PE ratio – what CAPE is, why the US reading of 42x matters, and how to read it: https://www.noisecancelling.co/read/what-the-shiller-cape-tells-you-about-the-next-ten-years

Oil hit $144 a barrel in April, the highest price ever paid for physical crude, and underlying inflation barely moved. This week, Neil Woodford explains why the oil price doesn't work the way most people think, and why three central banks tightened into a shock that was already reversing. Jon and Neil mark Neil's December calls honestly (the wins and the misses), then get into the mechanics: why paper barrels set the price, not physical ones; the difference between headline and core inflation; and the base effects that mean the inflation number scaring central banks is about to fall on its own. Then the mistake. The ECB raised rates the day before the peace process went public. The Bank of Japan gets Neil's sympathy as the one bank tightening into genuine wage inflation. And in Washington, new Fed chair Kevin Warsh has picked headline inflation as his fight; Neil takes the 4.2% apart and explains why the September hike never arrives, and why the Bank of England may cut before year-end. Neil also names the one number that would prove the whole call wrong.

Inflation just hit a three-year high, and the consensus has decided the era of cheap is over for good. Neil Woodford thinks that's exactly wrong — and that the inflation in the headlines is mostly one war showing up in the oil price. Jon Adair and Neil Woodford take apart the Financial Times' "end of cheap" argument and make the case that three of the most powerful deflationary forces in modern history are building at the same time — and that a single oil shock is hiding all of them. In this episode: The difference between a supply shock and structural inflation, and why almost everyone confuses the two China's $2 trillion trade surplus, and why it has no choice but to keep exporting deflation Why the energy market is heading for a glut, not a shortage How the collapsing cost of AI and the rise of humanoid robots pull prices down What it means for interest rates, bonds and equities if Neil is right — and what would prove him wrong

This week, a single American memory chip company became worth more than AstraZeneca, HSBC and Shell combined. So why has Britain never built one of its own? Neil Woodford has spent more than 30 years as one of the largest shareholders in some of Britain's biggest companies. He was a top-five holder of GSK for over a decade. He helped see off Pfizer's bid for AstraZeneca. He's sat across from board after board, telling them what they had to do to be worth more. In this episode of The Noise Cancelling Podcast, he tells the story of how Britain keeps building world-class companies and then throws them away. We cover: 🔹 Why scale isn't the answer (Taiwan built TSMC; South Korea built Samsung and SK Hynix, both worth over $1 trillion) 🔹 The corporate governance trap: why the average FTSE 100 CEO lasts under four years 🔹 BP's third chairman in three years, and what it tells you about UK boards 🔹 The Glaxo (GSK) story: more than fifteen years as a top shareholder, shouted down, sold in frustration in 2017, vindicated five years too late 🔹 AstraZeneca and the 2014 Pfizer bid at £55 — and what's happened to the share price since 🔹 The three things Neil looks for to separate businesses that compound from businesses that waste themselves 🔹 Why Simon Wolfson at Next is the gold standard of British corporate leadership 🔹 How Micron earned its place in Neil's AI picks and shovels thesis 🔹 Whether Britain can ever produce its own trillion dollar company The Noise Cancelling Podcast is a weekly show with Neil Woodford and Jon Adair. Each week we take a piece of confusion in the financial press, teach the mechanism behind it, and give Neil's specific view on what it means for investors. If you got something from this, please subscribe. It helps the channel more than you'd think. And leave a comment below with the British company you reckon should have been a global giant but never made it. Important: Nothing in this video is investment advice. Companies are discussed for educational purposes only. You should consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision. #NeilWoodford #UKStocks #Investing #FTSE100 #StockMarket

SpaceX has filed for IPO. OpenAI and Anthropic are next. The biggest AI listings in history are about to hit US markets — together worth more than the entire FTSE 100. Most of the coverage frames this as confirmation that the AI boom keeps running. Neil Woodford's view is different: the trade may already be more concentrated than investors realise, and where the money flows from here is the question almost nobody is asking. In this week's Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford and Jon Adair break down what's actually inside your S&P 500 tracker, why your MSCI World fund holds the same AI trade, why the KOSPI has quietly become a Samsung and SK Hynix index, and how the cap-weighted index flywheel runs in both directions. They cover the S&P 500 inclusion rules that will keep OpenAI and SpaceX locked out of the index for years, the source-of-funds problem facing the $300 billion of new equity supply, and why Nvidia's record-beating earnings still couldn't lift the share price after hours. Plus: how this is different from the dotcom bubble, what would change Neil's view, and where he thinks investor attention shifts next — beyond the AI providers, into the companies that deploy AI to transform their own margins.

This week the press is unanimous: Britain is uniquely badly positioned, the IMF says so, and the 30-year gilt yield at 5.8% is proof. The Times, the Telegraph and the FT have all run the same story. Neil Woodford disagrees. In this episode, Jon Adair and Neil walk through why the 30-year gilt is the wrong number to look at, why the 10-year — which has been moving in lockstep with US treasuries since 2020 — is what actually matters for UK funding costs, and what the bond market is positioning for when the Iran war ends. What we cover: - Why the DMO has cut long-dated gilt issuance by 80% in a single year - The 10-year UK / US treasury correlation and what's actually changed - What today's UK Q1 GDP data tells us about IMF projections - Why fiscal constraints bind every prime minister, regardless of who's in office - Where rates go when the Iran war ends - Why the markets are still at all-time highs

Forget China. The biggest economic imbalance in the world right now is between America and Europe. In 2008, the EU was the same size as the US. Today it is 41% smaller. This week, Neil Woodford and Jon Adair go through the €220bn surplus the financial press isn't covering, the European savings paradox Brussels can't explain, and why a Labour push to rejoin the EU would be one of the worst economic decisions Britain has made in 50 years. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a recent IIF audience that China's $1 trillion trade surplus is the central global imbalance. The maths says he is looking in the wrong place. Europe's surplus with the US is the harder one to explain (a continent with the most generous safety net in the world saving like it has none) and the only one with a realistic chance of being addressed. Mario Draghi published 383 recommendations to fix the European economy in September 2024. Two years later, only 11% have been implemented. Neil walks through what this means for Europe, for the UK, and for anyone thinking about the UK rejoining the EU. 🔗 Links & Resources - Earlier episode on Europe's energy vulnerability: https://youtu.be/-LypKyR2B8A?si=qSvcLXoCQdnNWXad - Neil's blog on Brexit (November 2025): https://www.woodfordviews.com/post/brexit-a-convenient-and-popular-scapegoat - Mario Draghi report (September 2024): https://commission.europa.eu/topics/competitiveness/draghi-report_en

Brent jumped 7% yesterday to over $120. The consensus says oil is heading higher and the UK is heading into stagflation. We think the consensus is wrong about oil — and wrong in two directions at once. Underneath this week's headlines, two mechanisms are working against the prevailing narrative. The blockade of Iran is doing exactly what it was designed to do — Iranian storage is filling, wells will have to shut, and the regime is losing $400 million a day in revenue. At the same time, OPEC is fragmenting in public. The UAE has walked out. Russia's finance minister has gone on the record telling his own budget to brace for lower prices. And the question of whether Saudi Arabia eventually follows the UAE is now genuinely on the table. In this episode of The Noise Cancelling Podcast, Neil Woodford and Jon Adair walk through how the war actually ends, why losing the UAE breaks OPEC's pricing power, what happens when the blockade and the cartel collide, and why the Bank of England's decision today maps onto exactly the view we've been arguing for weeks. Neil's medium-term view: the structural pull is downward. Brent could trade well below $50 a barrel. About The Noise Cancelling Podcast A weekly investment show that cuts through the noise of financial markets. Neil Woodford and Jon Adair on what the headlines miss and what it means for your money.

Every major UK forecaster — the IMF, Capital Economics, EY Item Club, KPMG — has downgraded Britain's growth for 2026 and blamed the energy shock. Neil Woodford thinks every one of them is wrong. Not about the numbers. About the diagnosis. In this week's Noise Cancelling, Jon and Neil break down why the consensus is panicking about the wrong thing. The energy shock everyone is worried about? Absorbable. The £192 billion household savings buffer nobody's modelling? Real. And the actual drag on the UK economy — the one every forecaster is ignoring — has nothing to do with oil, gas or the price cap. We cover the petrol arithmetic (every 5p at the pump costs the UK consumer £1bn a year), why cancelled overseas holidays might actually boost British GDP (the £54bn travel deficit nobody talks about), and the fiscal story that changes everything — UK tax receipts at 40.1% of GDP versus 35.5% under the last Labour government, a £140bn annual increase that's bigger than the entire budget deficit. Neil's conclusion: the Bank of England needs to cut rates, and they need to cut them now. The Chancellor's "iron rules" are a fiscal illusion built on tax rises, not spending discipline. And the next three weeks — the MPC's May decision and Ofgem's Q3 cap announcement on 27 May — will set the direction of the UK economy for the rest of the year. 🎧 ABOUT THE NOISE CANCELLING PODCAST Weekly UK macro and investment analysis with Neil Woodford — over 35 years of UK fund management experience — and Jon Adair. We cut through the consensus noise to explain what's actually happening in the global economy, and what it means for you. 📱 FOLLOW Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/woodfordviews/ Twitter (X): https://x.com/woodford LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/w4pz/ ⚠️ This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this episode constitutes financial advice. Always do your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. #UKEconomy #NeilWoodford #InterestRates #UKInflation #BankOfEngland #RachelReeves #UKPolitics #Investing #Stagflation #UKStocks

Is the Iran war already over? Neil Woodford explains why Iran has just 13 days before its oil production suffers permanent damage — and why this means oil prices, UK inflation, and interest rates could all reverse faster than markets expect. The US naval blockade of Iran began this week. Iran has approximately 13 days of oil storage capacity. After that, wells must shut down — and in mature oil fields, the damage to reservoir pressure, wellbore integrity, and long-term production capacity is irreversible. The Iranian regime knows this. China knows this. And it's why, despite headlines about military escalation, Neil Woodford believes this war is heading for a rapid resolution — with major implications for the oil price, the UK economy, and investors. In this episode of The Noise Cancelling Podcast, Neil Woodford and Jon Adair explain the economic mechanism behind the Iran blockade, update the three Iran war scenarios from previous episodes, and examine why the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook — which cut UK growth to 0.8% and labelled Britain the most vulnerable G7 economy — is already out of date.

In five weeks, UK markets went from pricing rate cuts to pricing four rate hikes. The word stagflation is on every front page. But did anything in the underlying economy actually change — or did a five-week war make everyone forget what was already happening? In this episode, Neil Woodford and Jon walk through four structural deflationary forces that were pushing prices down before the Iran conflict started — and explain why none of them have been reversed by it. From Chinese goods deflation and the impact of AI on services, to the structural oversupply in energy and a UK labour market where demand is falling, Neil argues that inflation peaks below 3.5% and the pressure comes back down. We also cover what this means for UK mortgages, gilts, savings and pensions — including why Neil would not fix a five-year mortgage at current rates — and Neil's view on the energy price cap, the Bank of England's next move, and why the UK desperately needs lower interest rates to unlock household consumption. Stay to the end for our update on the Iran war scenarios from last week, including what the ceasefire actually means, why the Strait of Hormuz is still not open, and whether the probabilities have changed. UK CPI for March is released on 22 April. The Bank of England meets on 30 April. We will cover both on this channel — subscribe so you do not miss them. Watch Next Our previous episode on the Iran war scenarios: https://youtu.be/VK0ynNi2JfA Our episode on UK energy policy and North Sea resources: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LypKyR2B8A