Alternate Shots with Richard Haass and John Ellis

This week on Alternate Shots , John Ellis and Richard Haass consider a world in which old assumptions no longer hold. They begin with 9/11, what it did and did not change, and the danger that AI, drones, and biotechnology could make terrorism newly consequential. From there, they turn to diplomacy done backward: envoys courting Moscow before Kyiv, money offered where nationalism is the real currency, and the spreading crisis at sea as the Houthis threaten the Bab el-Mandeb. Also on the table: Iran, Saudi Arabia, oil prices, Treasury overreach, AI dread, the Giants, late-night tennis, and the Walker Cup. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

This week on Alternate Shots , John Ellis and Richard Haass ask whether declaring the Iran war over makes it so. Haass is skeptical: a blockade remains an act of war, retaliation remains likely, and the United States is still stuck in the gray zone between ceasefire and conflict. They also examine Russian support for Iran, the anti-American axis on display at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Turkey’s hedging, Venezuela’s oil gamble, inflation, the possibility of a blue wave, and the risks of AI escaping its sandbox. Finally, because every reputable outlet needs a sports section, they turn to the Giants and Odell Beckham Jr. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

This week on Alternate Shots , John Ellis and Richard Haass mark six months of the Iran war and ask: what went wrong? Many things is their answer. They're equally downbeat about Treasury Secretary's "D-Day" and President Trump's rekindled interest in North Korea, although not as downbeat as Stanley Druckenmiller and the South Koreans. The conversation then turns to the devastating research report from The British Medical Journal (BMJ) on professional (American) football players and CTE (brain damage). Bonus: a quick mini-roundup of sports news. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

This week on Alternate Shots , John Ellis and Richard Haass examine a world discovering that technology, politics, and war are moving faster than institutions built to manage them. They begin with Iran, where Haass argues Washington should have led with economic pressure, not military escalation, and where coercion now tests which side can endure more pain. From there, they turn to Ukraine’s drone advantage, America’s dated defense posture, and the need for something like a second Pentagon built for cheap, scalable systems. They also weigh deficits, vaccines, anti-vax politics, Democratic enthusiasm, Trump’s health, and the uneasy state of the WNBA. Finally, because equilibrium must be restored, there is golf: Winged Foot, Phil Mickelson, and the value of low expectations. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

This week on Alternate Shots , John Ellis and Richard Haass assess a world in which imperfect outcomes may be the best available ones. They begin with Iran, where Haass sees a likely reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but not peace, not a ceasefire, and not a strategic victory. Tehran has gained leverage; Washington has limited options; and America’s defense-industrial base is proving ill-suited to the wars it may be asked to fight. From there, they turn to Ukraine’s air-defense crisis, the unreality of the latest Gaza peace plan, Israel’s growing estrangement from American politics, and the coming collision between AI and domestic policy. Finally, because no episode is complete without sports, Haass hedges on the maybe-not-playoff-bound New York Giants and both marvel at the resurgent Boston Red Sox. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

This week on Alternate Shots , John Ellis and Richard Haass assess a world in which overreach has become policy. They begin with Iran, where the United States and Tehran appear to be acting against their own interests: bombing, retaliation, threats to the Strait of Hormuz, and a memorandum of understanding that solved too little and conceded too much. Haass argues the next step should be a ceasefire, renewed nuclear diplomacy, and a more serious effort to reopen the strait. They then turn to a possible U.S.-Saudi nuclear arrangement, the absence of process in American foreign policy, Mayor Mamdani’s performative politics, a brutal Fox poll for Trump, AI systems moving faster than governance, and, finally, Cam Young, the Open, and the World Cup. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

This week on Alternate Shots , John Ellis and Richard Haass ask whether Washington has anything resembling a Plan C for Iran. Haass offers one: First, accept that previous U.S. plans (first bombing our way to regime change or Iranian capitulation followed by an effort to negotiate an end to the war on reasonable terms) have all failed. Then he suggests adopting a new strategy, one that includes maintaining sanctions rather than rewarding Tehran, building Gulf defenses against Iranian drones and missiles, accelerating measures to gradually reduce the Strait’s strategic importance, and returning focus to the nuclear issue to ensure that Iran never develops a nuclear weapon. It may mean accepting the uncomfortable reality of a privileged role for Iran in the Strait of Hormuz for a time if it is to stay open. The two co-hosts also discuss Ukraine’s new leverage, Russia’s temptations, America’s contested midterms, and the curse of Trump in sports. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

This week on Alternate Shots , John Ellis and Richard Haass take stock of a world long on ceasefires and short on strategy. They begin with the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, the subject of Haass’s recent Home and Away essay, bluntly titled “Defeat,” and ask whether the deal is less diplomacy than capitulation: vague on the nuclear question, silent on missiles, generous to Tehran, and dangerous for Israel and America’s partners. From there, they turn to Netanyahu’s narrowing room for maneuver, JD Vance’s warning to Israel, and the erosion of U.S. reliability. They then discuss Haass’s forthcoming Foreign Affairs essay with Council on Foreign Relations Taiwan expert David Sacks on Taiwan, arms sales, and the risk of treating commitments as bargaining chips. Finally, they touch on Keir Starmer’s troubles, Wyndham Clark at Shinnecock, the Knicks’ improbable championship. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

John Ellis and Richard Haass take up a world in which problems are less solved than managed. Iran remains unfinished business, with the future of the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear limits on Iran, and sanctions relief all in play. What is certain is that the Gulf states face a future of greater uncertainty, with some likely to try to come to terms with Iran and others more inclined to confront it. China’s outreach to North Korea reveals an effort on Xi Jinping's part to reestablish influence there as well as the unease beneath his partnership with Putin as Russia's war with Ukraine grows more costly, less winnable, and harder to exit. At home, California’s elections and urban progressive politics point to intra-Democratic tensions heading toward 2028. And, inevitably, the Knicks, with one of our two hosts going with his head and the other his heart. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

For years, artificial intelligence occupied the familiar territory of technological optimism: faster growth, greater efficiency, and the promise that innovation would solve more problems than it created. That era may be ending. This week on Alternate Shots, Richard Haass and John Ellis examine the rapid emergence of AI not simply as a business story, but as a political, strategic, and even theological one. Prompted by a sweeping papal encyclical warning against surrendering human judgment to machines, the conversation explores the widening backlash against Silicon Valley’s concentration of power and the growing fear that societies are drifting into dependence on systems they neither understand nor control. From the possibility of AI regulation and U.S.-China competition to the surprising coalition forming between populists, evangelicals, and labor skeptics, Haass argues that the debate over artificial intelligence is quickly becoming a debate about governance itself. Also: early 2028 political maneuvering, Texas intrigue, and the improbable emotional stability of New York Knicks fans. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

In this week’s Alternate Shots, Richard Haass and John Ellis begin with Iran, which remains suspended in the uneasy territory between war and peace. Washington appears to be inching toward a revised nuclear arrangement that resembles, in substance if not in branding, the very deal Donald Trump tore up in his first term. Also emerging are growing tensions between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who may come to regret advocating for a war that has created growing problems for Israel's relations with its most important patron. In Asia, Trump’s remarks on Taiwan raise unsettling questions about whether support for Taiwan could be traded off in exchange for increased access to China's market. The conversation then turns to Ukraine, where mounting Russian casualties, strikes deep inside Russian territory, and growing signs of political anxiety around Vladimir Putin suggest the war may be nearing an end on terms closer to Ukraine's than Russia's. Domestically, Senate Republicans might finally be balking at the political excesses and corruption of the Trump administration, which is turning into a political liability with all but hard-core Republican voters. The episode closes, as always, with sports, which thanks to the Knicks and the PGA provide an upbeat final few minutes. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

John Ellis and Richard Haass discuss the latest on multiple wars, actual and political. They review the absence of good options for ending the war with Iran, noting that wars dont necessarily end when one side (in this case Donald Trump) has had enough. The big question as the President heads to China is what he might be prepared to give up on Taiwan or chips to get Xi’s help with Iran or on trade. The surprising good news is how the tide of war is slowly but steadily turning against Vladimir Putin in his increasingly unsuccessful war of choice against Ukraine. Peace or at least a lasting ceasefire may be closer than many realize. Closer to home, the two look at the partisan wars in several states over redistricting, which for now seem to be favoring the Republicans but no matter what the result are sure to leave American politics more polarized and the political center losing out to the extremes. Last but never least, Ellis and Haass turn to sports, in this case to celebrate the Knicks who are playing their best basketball of the year and who could well end up in the NBA finals if they manage to keep it up and stay healthy. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

Alternate Shots returns with John Ellis and Richard Haass examining a geopolitical and domestic political landscape defined by drift. The crisis surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz underscores a broader reality: deterrence is fraying, diplomacy is episodic, and the risk of miscalculation is rising. The United States faces narrowing options, caught between rising economic pressure, a lack of promising military options, and the absence of a coherent endgame. Beyond the Middle East, transatlantic relations continue to erode, as Europe questions both American reliability and judgment. At home, political fragmentation reflects a deeper institutional fatigue, raising doubts about the capacity of either party to address structural challenges, from technological disruption to economic insecurity. What emerges is a portrait of a system and a world under stress. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

In this episode of Alternate Shots , John Ellis and Richard Haass tackle two wars, a Royal visit, and the world of sports. The conversation starts with the Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and leave the nuclear issue for later, which the Trump administration appears to be resisting but Haass argues the US should run with. From there, they pivot to the war in Ukraine, where Kyiv’s battlefield resilience and drone innovation are quietly reshaping modern warfare and building opposition to Putin at home. They then wind their way to the limits of royal diplomacy during King Charles III’s visit to Washington and end with a discussion of the sub-two hour marathon and the post-NFL draft Giants. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

In this episode of Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass navigate a tumultuous week where cautious optimism collided with geopolitical reality. The conversation ranges from Iran and the fragile ceasefire in and around the Strait of Hormuz to electoral upheaval in Hungary. The hosts also speak their minds on the attacks aged by both the president and vice president on Pope Leo. They end with the apparent demise of the Saudi-supported LIV golf tour and this coming week’s NFL draft, which will go a long ways toward determining the fate of the once great but recently humbled NY Giants. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

In this episode of Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass dissect a ceasefire that exists mostly on paper and a war that has created more problems than it has solved. The Strait of Hormuz has gone from highway to choke point, while what to do about Iran’s nuclear efforts and its support of proxies remains as much of a question as ever. Along the way, they critique a decision-making process dominated by a president that contains little in the way of process, expertise, or analysis. Fortunately, they end with their fearless and probably baseless predictions for this week’s Masters golf championship. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

In this episode of Alternate Shots , hosts John Ellis and Richard Haass dissect a familiar American illusion: that battlefield dominance equals strategic victory. Yes, Iran has taken a beating; but, as Haass notes, capability plus will still makes for a dangerous adversary. The conversation skewers the president’s speech which failed to articulate a strategy for what comes next. Meanwhile, Gulf allies fret, NATO frays into a polite fiction, and China quietly enjoys the distraction. The verdict: the U.S. may be winning the war it is fighting, but risks losing the one that matters. A classic case of measuring what’s measurable and missing what’s decisive. Plus a few thoughts on Cuba, Tiger Woods, and the Masters. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

War, markets, and maritime choke points collide in this brisk tour of a Middle East crisis that could empty gas tanks worldwide. John Ellis and Richard Haass unpack whether the U.S. has really clipped Iran’s wings or merely annoyed a country that can still turn the Strait of Hormuz into the world’s most expensive parking lot. They debate mines, drones, insurance panic, election math, and a White House strategy that may be improvising in real time. Along the way, Haass unveils his stark “we break it, you own it” doctrine for allies now stuck holding the bill. It is geopolitics as supply chain thriller, with a golf detour for recovery of morale. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

In this episode of Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass dissect the messy endgame of the US-Israeli war with Iran. They discuss leverage, informal and formal ceasefires, and strategy. The conversation explores whether and how Washington might end a conflict it started, given that Israel and Iran still have their own agendas. Haass explains why Iran’s biggest bargaining chip may be the Strait of Hormuz, where even the threat of disruption has sent oil markets into panic. The discussion widens to the geopolitical ripple effects: Russia and China quietly benefiting from U.S. distraction, Ukraine watching American weapons flow elsewhere, and the uncomfortable reality that a trillion-dollar Pentagon still struggles with the cheap drone warfare dominating modern battlefields. And as always the two find a way to pivot from geopolitics to golf, safely predicting that the favorite will win the Players Championship. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

In this week’s episode of Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass dissect the widening conflict with Iran, asking the uncomfortable question: what exactly is the strategy? They debate the shaky logic behind Operation Epic Fury, the limits of American air-defense stockpiles, and why time may actually favor Tehran. Along the way, they examine how the war could boost Russia, drain resources needed for Ukraine, and rattle U.S. politics at home. The conclusion is sobering: wars of choice are easy to start, much harder to end, and the clock may already be ticking on Washington’s ability to control the outcome. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger