The Competent Investor

I sat down with Matthew Piepenburg, Partner at Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland and author of Gold Matters, for a conversation that ranged from French riots to the COMEX silver squeeze. What struck me most was his framing of today's gold setup as fundamentally stronger than the 1970s bull market. I asked Matt about the sentiment he encounters as he travels between conferences and clients across continents. His answer was blunt: "The big themes at a 30,000 foot level are geopolitics, of course, and inflation. It's from family offices to a groom, a polo field. I mean, people talking about this everywhere." He described a middle class that has shifted "from the aspirational to the desperation," feeling poorer no matter what they do. When I pressed him on whether the US is in a Wile E. Coyote moment, he didn't hesitate. "America is already over the cliff. We just don't know it yet." But he was quick to add that this isn't the end of America—it's the end of its hegemony. The pattern of debt leading to currency debasement to social unrest is, as he put it, "history in math." On the metals themselves, Matt argued that supply and demand still matter enormously. With only about a billion ounces of gold freely traded against a thousand times larger market cap in stocks and bonds, "only a small move in demand in that very tight supply would crank up the price." He sees the recent silver shakeout—silver losing 35 percent overnight in January—as manipulation, not natural price discovery. His parting advice carried the weight of someone who's seen cycles before: "Your best revenge against a completely mismanaged system is a good life." Save in gold, spend in fiat, and don't wait for a politician to save you. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction and Global Investor Sentiment 00:05:20 - Voting, Politicians, and Self-Reliance 00:10:26 - France's Political Turmoil and Debt Crisis 00:19:25 - Viewing Markets Through a Gold Lens 00:26:09 - America's Wile E. Coyote Moment 00:32:30 - Treasury Appointments and Gold Revaluation Speculation 00:41:57 - Cantillon Effect and Positioning for Inflation 01:24:28 - Closing Thoughts and Final Advice Guest: Matthew Piepenburg — Partner - Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland, Author - Gold Matters Matthew Piepenburg is a Partner of Von Greyerz and the author of the popular book, "Rigged to Fail". Matt is fluent in French, German, and English. He is a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA), and the University of Michigan (JD). His widely-respected reports on macro conditions and the changing behavior of risk assets are published regularly at SignalsMatter.c https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerland https://goldswitzerland.com/ https://signalsmatter.com/ https://tinyurl.com/pvpfmy8c 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

I've had Rory Johnston on before, but this conversation felt different. The oil market Rory describes isn't just tight—it's structurally broken in ways we've never seen. We started with the SPR, and Rory's view is more aggressive than most. "I have a very low theoretical bottom of the SPR relative to a lot of analysts," he told me. "I think functionally the floor is zero barrels." The draws have ended for this tranche, but DOE is soliciting the final 40 million barrels, and Rory expects we'll blow past the 250-260 million barrel level everyone assumes is sacred. Then we got to what Rory calls "arguably the most interesting thing in the oil market right now." For his entire career, if you got a barrel to tidewater, it was functionally a global market. "Now that's all broken." Shipping a barrel from the Persian Gulf to China used to cost $2-3. Now it's $25-30. Tanker day rates have gone from $100-200k to $1.5 million. The result? "Rather than having one big global oil market now, we have a dozen Balkanized regional oil markets that have trouble interacting with each other." The North Sea is screaming shortage while West African crude trades at historic discounts—consumers and exporters squeezed simultaneously. I asked about the WTI-Brent blowout, and Rory dropped a stat that stopped me cold: the spread is wider than when WTI went negative in April 2020. "That's a wild stat." It's not manipulation—it's the cost of shipping injected directly into the differential. On diesel, Rory was blunt about silver bullets: "You either need to fix the war in Russia and Ukraine or you need to end the Iran war. Neither of those seem especially forthcoming." China could ease things by loosening teapot refinery exports, potentially shaving 30-50% off the $100 crack spread. His biggest surprise? The "Beijing swing"—China cutting crude imports by 5.4 million barrels a day. "China is the single most important reason that we did not hit $200 a barrel oil." With midterms ahead, Rory's advice: "Hold on for the ride. This is going to be an exciting month." Timestamps 00:00:00 - Introduction and Guest Background 00:00:17 - SPR Drawdown and Tank Bottoms 00:02:02 - Global Oil Reserves and China 00:05:13 - Crude Grade Spreads and Shipping 00:12:09 - Tanker Market Crisis Explained 00:16:39 - War Risk Insurance Premiums 00:19:15 - Iraq's Surprising Production Recovery 00:21:44 - WTI-Brent Spread and Manipulation 00:27:44 - White House Efforts to Lower Prices 00:32:08 - Could Oil Hit $200 a Barrel? 00:35:20 - 2026 Oil Glut Outlook 00:38:10 - Product Shortages in Emerging Markets 00:39:56 - Export Bans and Diesel Markets 00:44:22 - Tradable Assets and Spreads 00:49:30 - Biggest Surprises: The Beijing Swing 00:52:34 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: Rory Johnston — Commodity Market Research - Specializing in Oil & Gas Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.). Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors. https://www.commoditycontext.com/ https://x.com/Rory_Johnston 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Asset Management, argues that the US economy is trapped in a self-perpetuating doom loop driven by massive deficits and rising interest rates, which he believes will inevitably lead to a sovereign debt crisis or hyperinflation. He explains that as the Federal Reserve raises rates to combat persistent inflation, the government's interest expense balloons—potentially consuming half or all of tax revenue within years—forcing even larger deficits that fuel more inflation. Schiff contends the Fed is far behind the curve, with real rates falling as inflation accelerates, and that any further hikes will only worsen the fiscal situation. He highlights a brewing disaster in the housing and banking sectors, where trillions in unrealized losses on low-yielding mortgages threaten lender solvency, a situation he views as far worse than the 2008 crisis. This, combined with a reverse wealth effect as home prices eventually reset lower, will act as a severe headwind for the economy. Schiff predicts Democrats will win the midterms and pass even larger deficits, accelerating the fiscal and inflationary problems. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:37 - Sovereign Debt Crisis Risks 00:03:25 - Inflation and Rate Hikes 00:08:04 - Market Reactions to Data 00:09:34 - Stock Market Breadth Concerns 00:11:50 - Mortgage Market Crisis 00:22:10 - Housing Wealth Effect Reversal 00:26:16 - Fannie Freddie Privatization 00:31:04 - Government Deficits and Taxes 00:42:24 - Gold Silver Investment Opportunities 00:49:20 - AI Impacts and Outlook 00:59:28 - Midterms & Concluding Thoughts Guest: Peter Schiff — CEO of Euro Pacific Asset Management, and Chairman of Schiff Gold Peter Schiff is an honorary chairman of SchiffGold, founder of Euro Pacific Asset Management, and host of The Peter Schiff Show. Peter is an economic forecaster and investment advisor influenced by the free-market Austrian School of economics. He is one of the few forecasters who accurately and publicly predicted the 2007 housing market collapse and subsequent 2008 financial crisis. His latest best-selling book, The Real Crash: America's Coming Bankruptcy - How to Save Yourself and Your Country, warns that the 2008 crisis was just the prelude to a larger sovereign debt crisis in the United States that may lead to a collapse of the US dollar. Peter recommends long-term investment in foreign markets with sound fiscal policies, as well as global commodities including buying gold, silver and other physical precious metals. Podcast Website Website X YouTube 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

AJ Signal, a former military strategist and current geopolitical risk advisor, outlines a framework for predicting conflict by monitoring five logistical signals that nations cannot easily fake: medical mobility, energy, finance, and munitions. He explains how, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the movement of blood banks to the front line served as an undeniable indicator of imminent war, because the cold-chain logistics for blood are too complex to be a bluff. Applying this lens today, he observes the U.S. military moving blood supplies into both Europe and the Asia-Pacific, which, combined with other indicators, suggests preparations for a potential ground operation against Iran. The discussion then turns to the “Toyota Hilux Index,” a pattern where a surge in shipments of these versatile, easily maintained trucks often precedes militia activity or civil war by six to twelve months. On energy, Signal details how attacks on critical but remote pumping stations along Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline have effectively disabled a key bypass for crude oil exports, demonstrating the new vulnerability of critical national infrastructure to low-cost drone warfare. He notes that the real choke point in global energy is shifting from oil wells to refineries, which are being systematically targeted in both Russia and the Middle East, taking years and billions of dollars to repair. Financially, he points to a massive movement of physical gold by central banks and institutions, including the Netherlands recalling its reserves, as a sign of eroding trust in the U.S. dollar and the current financial system. This is complemented by a surge in gold accumulation by China and private entities like Tether. Finally, he warns that the convergence of these signals—blood logistics, vehicle shipments, refinery attacks, and gold repatriation—paints a picture of a world structurally preparing for prolonged conflict, with inevitable knock-on effects including higher fuel and food prices, potential fertilizer shortages, and increased global instability. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:01:10 - A.J. Signal Background 00:02:57 - Five Lanes of Signals 00:03:59 - Medical Blood Supplies Ukraine 00:08:31 - Current Blood Movements 00:21:57 - Energy Strait of Hormuz 00:25:08 - Pipeline Attacks Analysis 00:35:27 - Oil Prices and Refineries 00:58:22 - Finance Gold Settlements 01:06:57 - Munitions Supply Chains 01:10:34 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: AJ Signal — Strategic Geopolitical Risk Analysis & Insights AJ Signal is a strategic geopolitical risk analysts, advisor and defence writer covering conflict, international relations and game theory. He has with 21 years across military, corporate security, intelligence, risk, crisis and disaster management, and has advises multinationals companies on risk and crisis strategy. His work has been published in The Times and the Jerusalem Post, featured on LCI/TF1, and cited by name in US Congressional Research Service. He publishes Signal, Not Noise!, a Substack Bestseller and Rising publication in World Politics. He is currently writing a book on Sanctions Capitalism. X Substack/Discount 25% Off Link 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, joins Tom Bodrovics to discuss his increasingly cautious market outlook. Pento’s model currently sits in sectors three and four, indicating stasis or slight reflation, but he anticipates a shift to sectors one and two by 2027. He has neutralized his portfolio for the first time since December 2021, reflecting his be Pento argues that the Federal Reserve is raising short-term rates while long-term rates are also rising, creating pressure on a "triumvirate of bubbles"—credit, real estate, and equities. He attributes this to inflation remaining above target for over five years, foreign creditors abandoning US Treasuries in favor of gold, and the unwinding of the yen carry trade. The US savings rate is near historic lows, limiting demand for government debt while deficits remain massive. He warns that AI-related debt issuance, potentially a trillion dollars this year, is fueling inflation and competing with Treasuries for scarce savings. He dismisses the idea that renewed quantitative easing could solve the problem, calling such measures palliative and likely to trigger a stagflationary environment. Pento predicts the next recession will cause deficits to balloon from two trillion to four-to-six trillion dollars annually, with the Fed unable to lower rates effectively without igniting double-digit inflation. He notes that total non-financial business debt, equity market capitalization relative to GDP, and housing affordability are all at or near record extremes, making the coming downturn potentially severe. Pento emphasizes that the Fed’s traditional tools—lowering rates and expanding its balance sheet—will not work this time because investors now understand the inflationary consequences. He concludes that the US is trapped by overfinancialization and fiscal irresponsibility, with no easy exit from the coming credit crisis. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:27 - Current Market Model Position 00:04:34 - AI Debt Bubble Pressures 00:05:51 - Treasury Rate Competition 00:10:11 - Foreign Creditors Shift to Gold 00:11:52 - Japan Carry Trade Issues 00:13:42 - Energy Costs and Japan 00:18:42 - Fed and Treasury Tools 00:21:00 - Real Estate and Wealth Effects 00:30:00 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: Michael Pento — President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies with more than 30 years of professional investment experience. He worked on the floor of the NYSE during the mid-90s. Pento served as an economist for both Delta Global and EuroPacific Capital. He was also the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios, which were distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network. Website E-Mail X 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

Jaime Carrasco, Senior Portfolio Manager at Harbourfront Wealth Management, argues that rising global interest rates signal a deepening credit crisis rather than a healthy economy, likening the situation to water overwhelming the Titanic. He views the current pullback in gold prices not as a weakness but as a strategic opportunity to build positions, emphasizing that central banks continue to accumulate physical gold as a hedge against the ongoing debasement of fiat currencies. Carrasco contends that the real problem is not assets becoming more valuable but the purchasing power of money eroding, a trend he expects to accelerate as governments are forced to print money to manage unsustainable debt levels. He draws a sharp distinction between owning real assets and holding credit-based derivatives, warning that the latter could prove worthless in a systemic reset reminiscent of the 1930s. Carrasco highlights the precious metals sector, particularly producers like Agnico Eagle, as one of the few areas trading at a discount to intrinsic value, offering a value proposition similar to Warren Buffett’s investments in the late 1990s. He sees a massive opportunity in silver, noting the historically extreme 70-to-1 gold-silver ratio compared to an 8-to-1 mining ratio, and points to growing industrial demand and Asian physical buying as catalysts for a rebalancing. Geopolitically, Carrasco favors Latin America for its resource wealth and relative insulation from the credit and energy crises afflicting Europe and other regions. He stresses the importance of patience and a disciplined asset allocation, recommending a significant weighting in precious metals and direct share ownership. For investors, the core message is to recognize the long-term monetary shift underway and position accordingly in tangible assets and well-managed producers before the broader market fully acknowledges the scope of the developing storm. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:56 - Gold as Crisis or Opportunity 00:03:43 - Fiat Currency Devaluation 00:09:03 - Positioning in Real Assets 00:14:48 - Gold Pullback as Opportunity 00:22:50 - Interest Rates and Bonds 00:29:00 - Gold Silver Ratio Opportunity 00:35:48 - Asset Allocation Strategy 00:40:00 - Geopolitical Risks Latin America 00:45:00 - Portfolio Construction Details 00:55:10 - Volatility Versus Risk 01:00:00 - Timeline for Positioning 01:07:34 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: Jaime Carrasco — Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management Jaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch. Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies. Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment strategies. "Like one's financial wealth, sailing is not about controlling the wind, but rather about adjusting the sails." X LinkedIn Website E-Mail 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

Porter Stansberry warns that the United States is on an irreversible path toward a major fiscal and societal crisis by 2029, drawing a historical parallel to the downfall of the Knights Templar. He explains that when a sovereign becomes insolvent, it inevitably turns on its creditors, and the largest creditor to the U.S. government is not bondholders but the recipients of unfunded Social Security promises. The root of this decay, he argues, is the abandonment of the gold standard, which has enabled unchecked money printing and triggered the Cantillon effect—where newly created currency flows first to the wealthy and connected, systematically eroding the middle class and destroying the single-income household. This monetary debasement has fueled profound cultural and moral collapse, manifesting in diseases of desperation, addiction, and a loss of faith in American institutions. Stansberry identifies the legal doctrine of "disparate impact" as the American version of Marxism, arguing it has corrupted everything from education and law enforcement to banking, leading to urban decay and institutional inefficiency. He contends that the banking system is now acutely vulnerable due to massive unrecognized losses on bond portfolios, a situation made untenable by the rise of AI, which will soon allow depositors to effortlessly seek market-based yields, triggering bank runs. To survive the coming reset, Stansberry outlines tiered investment strategies. For the very wealthy, he recommends buying deeply undervalued timberland. For most investors, he advocates a "permanent portfolio" that replaces traditional bonds with property and casualty insurance stocks to hedge against inflation and volatility. For those still accumulating wealth, he details a "honeycomb" portfolio—a concentrated, seven-sector strategy centered on gold and enhanced with modest leverage to maximize returns while minimizing risk. He concludes that the window to prepare is closing, urging immediate action before the crisis becomes obvious to everyone. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:54 - Friday the 13th Origins 00:02:03 - Social Security Crisis Warning 00:06:53 - Cantillon Effect Explained 00:07:53 - Disparate Impact Doctrine 00:22:06 - Banking System Risks 00:28:19 - AI Transforming Banking 00:33:14 - Permanent Portfolio Strategy 00:41:26 - Honeycomb Portfolio Approach 00:44:10 - Being Pro-Active 00:57:20 - Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: X: https://x.com/porterstansb Website: https://www.porterstansberry.com/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/porterstansberry/ Substack: https://substack.com/@porterstansberry Porter Stansberry is one of the most recognized voices in independent financial publishing over the past quarter century. He built Stansberry Research from a single newsletter into a company that went public at a $3 billion valuation, then walked away to start over on his own terms. In 1999, Porter Stansberry launched what would become Stansberry Research with a borrowed laptop and $36,000 in seed financing from publisher Bill Bonner. The operation began in a modest Baltimore apartment, where he wrote his first newsletter, initially called the Pirate Investor, and built a subscriber base through the quality and directness of the analysis itself. The model was simple in concept and difficult in execution: deliver genuinely useful investment research to individual investors who had no access to the same quality of analysis available to institutional clients. That founding principle shaped everything that followed. Before starting his own firm, Porter had already established a foothold in financial publishing by becoming the first American editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the world's oldest English-language financial newsletter. The role gave him a grounding in the tradition of long-form, independent financial analysis, a tradition he would spend the next two decades expanding. Porter Stansberry departed from MarketWise in 2020 and founded Porter & Co. in April of that year. He left the institutional structure of a public company behind and returned to the model he had started with: a small, editorially-independent team producing research without compliance committees, corporate mandates, or outside investors determining the agenda. Guest: Porter Stansberry — Founder of MarketWise, OneBlade, and Porter & Co. Porter Stansberry is one of the most recognized voices in independent financial publishing over the past quarter century. He built Stansberry Research from a single newsletter into a company that went public at a $3 billion valuation, then walked away to start over on his own terms. In 1999, Porter Stansberry launched what would become Stansberry Research with a borrowed laptop and $36,000 in seed financing from publisher Bill Bonner. The operation began in a modest Baltimore apartment, where he wrote his first newsletter, initially called the Pirate Investor, and built a subscriber base through the quality and directness of the analysis itself. The model was simple in concept and difficult in execution: deliver genuinely useful investment research to individual investors who had no access to the same quality of analysis available to institutional clients. That founding principle shaped everything that followed. Before starting his own firm, Porter had already established a foothold in financial publishing by becoming the first American editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the world's oldest English-language financial newsletter. The role gave him a grounding in the tradition of long-form, independent financial analysis, a tradition he would spend the next two decades expanding. Porter Stansberry departed from MarketWise in 2020 and founded Porter & Co. in April of that year. He left the institutional structure of a public company behind and returned to the model he had started with: a small, editorially-independent team producing research without compliance committees, corporate mandates, or outside investors determining the agenda. X Website Instagram Substack 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

Tom welcomes back trader Tony Greer to the show. Tony describes the current market as one of the most challenging environments he's ever navigated. He explains that a "perfect storm" of colliding weather systems is making trading exceptionally difficult. Elevated energy prices, driven by conflict with Iran and a persistently high diesel crack spread, are causing real-world inflation that isn't fully captured in headline data. This is exerting immense pressure on the bond market, which has broken out of a long-standing range to the downside, sending yields sharply higher. Greer points out that this dynamic is crushing the natural resources sector. A strong U.S. dollar, itself a product of higher rates, is knocking down commodities like gold, uranium, and rare earths, which have seen their recent rallies completely reverse. He notes that institutional money has likely fled these trades entirely. Meanwhile, the equity market is being led by a narrow group of technology stocks, particularly in semiconductors and AI, which seem completely detached from rising rates and fuel costs—a situation he finds unsustainable and reminiscent of the dot-com bubble, highlighting a sentiment top where a random retiree brags about her Nvidia stock. Looking ahead, Greer is adopting a defensive posture focused on survival. He is "slapping singles" by trading small, being disciplined with stops, and waiting for a clear macro signal. His immediate plan is to look for pullbacks in leading tech sectors for a safer entry. He dismisses the idea that the Federal Reserve is in a pickle, arguing its control over money supply and expectations gives it immense power to eventually engineer a turnaround. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:02:20 - Market Whipsaw and Challenges 00:04:22 - Inflation and Diesel Prices 00:07:00 - Bond Market Tailspin 00:09:10 - Bond Market Focus 00:14:30 - High Rates Market Pressure 00:17:55 - Fed Position and Policy 00:21:05 - Market Resilience and Sentiment 00:24:26 - Icarus Prints Explained 00:29:00 - Energy Crisis and Oil 00:36:11 - Impact on Miners and Firms 00:38:02 - AI Bubble and Passive Flows 00:41:10 - New Gold ETFs YASU 00:44:55 - New Financial Order & Real Assets 00:55:36 - Favorite Lessons & Mentors Guest: Tony Greer — Trader, Editor of 'The Morning Navigator', and Co-Founder of 'The Macrodirt Podcast' After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, "I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years." We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets. He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992. In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs. He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market timing. It turned out to be an extremely valuable learning experience. He believes there is a massive opportunity with both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed. In 2016, he started TG Macro, LLC. Conference Website X Substack YouTube 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

In this discussion, global forecaster David Murrin outlines his view that conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Pacific are not isolated but a coordinated confrontation between democracies and an axis of autocracy led by China. He traces China's rise to a multi-decade strategy developed after the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis, which involved seducing the West into moving its industrial base to China. This was coupled with systematic intellectual property theft and a military buildup, including island bases and anti-ship ballistic missiles designed to push U.S. aircraft carriers beyond their effective combat range. This area-denial bubble, now augmented by hypersonic weapons, has eroded decades of American military dominance. Iran has adopted similar tactics, using resilient missile architecture and cheap drones to challenge U.S. forces and allies, while depleting Western interceptor stockpiles that would be critical in a Pacific conflict. Murrin argues that higher defense budgets alone are insufficient; the West must prioritize innovation and adaptability over rigid systems. He points to Ukraine as a model of rapid adaptation, where lessons are immediately applied, unlike the slow-moving Western military-industrial complex. However, he warns that cognitive warfare, particularly from Russia, has induced societal paralysis in Western nations, leading to delayed responses and a dangerous collective delusion. This has left countries like the UK with degraded militaries and insufficient political will to rearm, making NATO vulnerable to mass-produced drone threats from a newly industrialized Russia. Economically, Murrin sees the world trapped in a hegemonic war cycle peaking around 2030, driving sustained inflation, higher commodity prices, and pressure on bond markets. He advises avoiding bonds and dollar-denominated assets, favoring precious metals as a safe haven. Despite the dire outlook, Murrin emphasizes building resilience, trusted sources of information, and hope, believing that free societies can ultimately prevail if they confront reality and demand protection from their governments. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:47 - China's Coordinated Strategy 00:05:09 - Dismantling US Military Dominance 00:09:11 - Innovation Over Defense Budgets 00:11:49 - Trump's Questioned Motivations 00:14:05 - UK Defense Negligence Exposed 00:17:01 - Gray War and Cognitive Warfare 00:19:44 - Cognitive Warfare on Populations 00:22:45 - Ukraine Visit and Adaptability 00:29:18 - Market and Economic Outlook 00:35:24 - Financial Reset and Multipolar World 00:37:45 - Investment Technologies Discussed 00:40:50 - Resilience and Mindset Advice 00:46:54 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: David Murrin — Global Forecaster and Author David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David's work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior. In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank. In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm's private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. In addition, through Emergents Advisory Business, David was responsible for the critical fund-raising for Heritage Oil, allowing it to expand significantly by investing in its Uganda exploration program. He took full control of Emergent in 2011, combining his management of the Geomacro fund with the role of Chief Executive Officer until 2014. David has been described as a polymath and his career of more than three decades has been focusing on finding and understanding collective human behavioral patterns including deep-seated patterns in history and then using them to try and predict the future for geopolitics and markets in today's turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record. Davids advisory and future trends speaking are based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment and reduce biases in collective investment decisions. In the desire to share his observations and predictive constructs, David has written four books. X Website Instagram 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

Peter Alexander, an American investor with 30 years of on-the-ground experience in China, argues that Western perceptions are polarized and often miss the nuance of China’s strategic direction. He was prompted to speak publicly by a sense of civic duty, seeing a need for a more balanced, non-conventional perspective amid a debate dominated by collapse narratives or hegemonic rivalry. Alexander traces the shift in American attitudes from indifference to resentment after the 2008 global financial crisis and the Trump era, noting that China’s resilience-focused policies—like massive debt restructuring rather than consumer stimulus—are often misread as economic weakness. He explains that China’s model emphasizes building strategic optionality: developing alternative financial infrastructure like the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and gold settlement mechanisms not to replace the dollar, but to mitigate risk of sanctions, as seen after Western actions against Russia and Iran. This multipronged approach, from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to BRICS, reflects a longstanding effort to create a multipolar world without direct confrontation. Alexander challenges the narrative of an imminent Taiwan invasion, suggesting the 2027 timeline was a manufactured controversy Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:01:33 - Wife's Push Into Debate 00:05:37 - Journey From Wall Street 00:08:12 - Changing US Attitudes To China 00:14:30 - No Stimulus Debt Restructuring 00:20:07 - Deconstructing Rivalry Essay 00:25:53 - Manufacturing Outsourcing Dynamics 00:34:54 - Surveillance State Misconceptions 00:38:28 - 1996 Geopolitical Awakening 00:44:41 - Strategic Optionality BRICS 00:52:15 - Gold Settlement System SIPS 01:11:26 - Gold Attitudes And Standards 01:29:30 - AI Development Realities 01:47:48 - Party Politics And Purges 01:57:26 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: Peter Alexander Peter Alexander is a veteran of China’s financial markets with a career that began as a China analyst on Wall Street before relocating to Shanghai in 1996. During his first decade in China, Peter led the local business units for several large American financial groups. It was during his last corporate position, project managing the establishment of a joint venture, where he recognized the growing demand for genuine unfiltered and independent China market insights. It was at that point, in 2004, when Peter established Z-Ben Advisors, a boutique advisory practice servicing C-suite and portfolio decision makers. Peter’s clients include globally recognized investors, managers and multinationals. Throughout Peter’s tenure residing in China, he’s maintained a minimal public profile preferring to exclusively center on direct client engagement. That changed in 2025 as it became clear that the rise and growing reach of “China macro influencers” were dispensing with grossly errant, or at a minimum woefully incomplete, views on China. To counter this, Peter began accepting media requests making numerous appearances on CNBC and Bloomberg where he pointedly counters or expands upon the conventional China talking points. Substack Essay 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media, argues that a sustained decline in the purchasing power of the US dollar is inevitable due to the staggering $40 trillion in on-balance-sheet and $120 trillion in off-balance-sheet liabilities. He explains that while short-term interest rate hikes may temporarily strengthen the dollar, the political class will ultimately choose to inflate away these obligations rather than default, setting the stage for a replay of the 1970s inflationary era. In this environment, he positions physical gold as the primary savings defense, with high-quality gold stocks like Franco-Nevada and Agnico Eagle serving as a leveraged investment layer that historically outperforms bullion. He warns that speculative junior mining stocks require significant work, expertise, and psychological tolerance for volatility. The discussion extends to the broader resource sector, where decades of underinvestment have created structural supply deficits in commodities like copper and uranium. Rule notes that these deficits cannot be quickly resolved, making price rationing inevitable. For uranium specifically, he highlights strong fundamentals driven by Japanese reactor restarts and long-term contracting, though he cautions that the market’s progress is often misaligned with speculators’ short-term expectations. Regarding silver, he emphasizes that its major price moves are historically led by generalist investor inflows following gold’s momentum, rather than industrial demand alone. He also sees contrarian value in Canadian oil and gas, citing geopolitical tensions and fiscal necessity. Rule concludes by advising investors to distinguish between savings, investment, and speculation, urging them to limit speculative holdings to the number of hours they can dedicate to diligent research. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:15 - Dollar Value and Washington 00:05:23 - Deflation Versus Inflation Forces 00:08:13 - Gold Commodities and Resources 00:10:50 - Gold Stocks in 1970s 00:13:20 - Interest Rates Impact on Gold 00:16:48 - Geopolitics and Energy Security 00:21:47 - Uranium Market Dynamics 00:27:06 - Uranium Production Deficit 00:34:08 - Silver Supply Realities 00:39:51 - Canadian Oil and Gas 00:42:40 - Investing in Resource Companies 00:52:36 - Resource Bull Market Outlook 00:55:05 - Wrap Up Guest: Rick Rule — Investor, Speculator, Founder & CEO of Rule Investment Media Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors. Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water. X Website YouTube Classroom Battle Bank 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back former Wall Street analyst John Rubino for a discussion on the incoherence between Federal Reserve and Treasury policies, with the Fed signaling possible rate hikes while the Treasury intervenes to suppress long-term yields. Rubino argues this contradictory approach signals a loss of confidence in fiat currencies and points toward a global debt spiral, exacerbated by $10 trillion in U.S. debt refinancing this year and reduced foreign demand, particularly from Japan. He sees precious metals as ultimate beneficiaries once governments resort to aggressive yield curve control, leading to a monetary reset likely backed by gold. Silver benefits from both monetary and industrial demand, especially in solar and batteries. Copper also stands to gain from electrification and AI-driven power needs. Rubino highlights diesel prices and the Iran conflict as underappreciated inflation drivers, and warns of a frozen housing market with three groups of potential forced sellers: baby boomers, Airbnb owners, and Wall Street landlords, which could trigger a 30-40% price decline. He also flags private equity risks in commercial real estate and insurance. For investors, he recommends starting with large-cap miners and gradually moving down the market cap ladder, using dollar cost averaging and put options for protection. Despite near-term recession risks, Rubino points to optimistic developments in longevity research, next-generation batteries, and cheap solar energy as potential long-term positives. Overall, the discussion emphasizes an accelerating global debt crisis, incoherent policy responses, and the need for defensive positioning in hard assets. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:13 - Fed and Treasury Incoherence 00:06:40 - Higher Rates Impact on Gold 00:09:50 - Silver's Dual Industrial Role 00:12:38 - Diesel Prices and Recession Risk 00:15:07 - Geopolitical Energy Disruptions 00:18:05 - Agriculture Drought and El Nino 00:23:50 - Monetary Reset Discussion 00:27:14 - AI Catalyst and Concerns 00:30:38 - US Debt Spiral Bailout 00:32:29 - Housing Market Freeze 00:38:18 - Private Equity Risks 00:41:23 - Copper Miners Investment Strategies 00:45:34 - Picking a Portfolio of Miners 00:54:22 - Recession & Future Risks Guest: John Rubino — Former Wall Street Analyst, & Publisher John Rubino Substack John Rubino is a former Wall Street financial analyst and author or co-author of five books, including The Money Bubble: What To Do Before It Pops. He founded the popular financial website DollarCollapse.com in 2004 and sold it in 2022, and now publishes on Substack. Substack Books 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

Graham Summers, President and Chief Market Strategist for Phoenix Capital Research, discussed the complex state of the bond market, noting the historic shift as the 40-year bull market in bonds ended in 2022. He analyzed Treasury Secretary Bessent’s recent increase in bond buybacks to $6 billion per auction, interpreting it primarily as a verbal intervention to maintain stability and signal support rather than a massive quantitative easing program. Summers stressed that while rising yields and national debt exceeding 100% of GDP are noteworthy, the situation remains orderly and not yet resembling a debt crisis. The conversation explored the application of a "wartime economy" framework to understand current fiscal and monetary policy. The intense U.S.-China AI arms race is driving massive deficits and direct government investment in sectors like critical minerals and domestic production, including gold and uranium. Summers highlighted the administration’s unprecedented moves, such as designating gold as a critical mineral and the Treasury Secretary explicitly discussing gold’s role in sanctions and as a strategic monetary asset. He argued this signals a fundamental shift where hard assets are regaining strategic and economic relevance after decades of being sidelined. On inflation, Summers pointed to volatile oil prices, which the administration has proven capable of influencing through strategic statements. He cautioned that sustained high energy costs could eventually feed through to data, but the current inflationary picture is not as acute as the 2021-2022 period. When assessing market risks, he advised focusing on leading indicators like high-yield credit, market breadth, and the price action of the most heavily weighted stocks, noting none currently point to an imminent disorderly crash. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:33 - Bond Market and Treasury Buybacks 00:02:20 - End of Bond Bull Market 00:05:46 - Treasury Interventions and Signals 00:09:35 - Debt Structure and Fed Changes 00:15:05 - Global Yields and US Dominance 00:17:18 - Wartime Economy and AI Race 00:22:06 - Debt to GDP Analysis 00:27:30 - COVID Liquidity and Announcements 00:29:38 - Oil Prices and Inflation 00:35:30 - Gold as Critical Mineral 00:41:16 - Uranium and Critical Minerals Guest: Graham Summers — President and Chief Market Strategist for Phoenix Capital Research Graham Summers, MBA is a world-renowned expert in central bank policy and its impact on the financial markets. With over 20 years of experience in market analysis and investment strategy, Graham has personally analyzed over 1,000 businesses and countless investment opportunities. His investment strategies encompass six different asset classes ranging from emerging markets to currencies to real estate . Together, his work has translated to unparalleled capital gains, with his clients outperforming the markets during some of the most volatile periods in capitalism. A best-selling author and acclaimed communicator, Graham’s cutting-edge investment and economic insights have been featured in dozens of media outlets around the world including CNN Money, Fox Business, Rolling Stone Magazine, Crain’s New York Business, MoneyTalk Radio, and The Huffington Post among many others. Graham earned his MBA from the prestigious Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. X Website Book 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

Tom welcomes back Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, Mike McGlone for a discussion on the outlook for energy, metals, and the broader macro markets. Diesel prices at all-time highs, driven by geopolitical disruptions and refining bottlenecks, are likely unsustainable. McGlone pointed to natural gas as a leading indicator: the January futures contract, the apex of the curve, has declined this year despite a supply glut, signaling downward pressure ahead for diesel, gasoline, and crude oil. The U.S. has become a massive net energy exporter, with record production and growing surpluses from Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, which will eventually overwhelm temporary supply constraints. Mike expects energy prices to fall, potentially accelerated by political pressure ahead of midterm elections. Copper, trading near all-time highs, is a “sock puppet” to the stock market, highly correlated and overextended. Managed money positions are extremely long, and CME inventories are at record levels relative to global exchanges, suggesting a liquidation risk if equities correct. Gold, while at elevated levels, is flashing warning signals: its volatility and correlation with the S&P 500 are at extremes, and historically, when gold gets exciting, investors should be cautious. The metal’s outperformance versus the long bond and equities may indicate a peak, with a potential enduring top similar to 2007. The U.S. stock market is historically expensive relative to GDP and debt, and McGlone sees a normal post-inflation deflationary reversion as likely. The next big trade may be long Treasury bonds, with the 30-year yielding over 5%, offering attractive risk-off value. Political cycles, tariffs, and the administration’s aggressive stance could accelerate a correction, and McGlone expects a significant shift in the midterms. Overall, he advises caution across risk assets, favoring bonds and anticipating a period of mean reversion that could define trading opportunities in the coming months. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:40 - Diesel Prices at All-Time Highs 00:03:03 - Natural Gas as Leading Indicator 00:04:21 - Geopolitical Issues Impacting Energy 00:05:45 - US Energy Surplus and Reversion 00:07:30 - Crack Spreads and Production 00:13:44 - Treasury Bonds and Yields 00:17:20 - Copper Stock Market Correlation 00:23:44 - Equity Market Triggers 00:29:52 - Mid-Terms and Inflation 00:33:48 - Gold Signals and Concerns 00:37:22 - Silver and Metals Peaks Guest: Mike McGlone — Senior Commodity Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone is a senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, a unique research platform that provides context on industries, companies, and government policy, available on the Bloomberg Professional service at BI(GO). Mr. McGlone specializes in the broad investible commodity markets. Mr. McGlone joined Bloomberg in 2016 with over 25 years of futures and commodity trading and investing experience, beginning at the Chicago Board of Trade. Prior to joining Bloomberg, he was a head of US research at ETF Securities. Prior to ETF Securities, Mr. McGlone headed the commodity business at S&P Indices. His previous roles included head of futures research at ABN Amro and VP research, analyst, trader, sales at Aubrey G. Lanston / IBJ Futures. Mr. McGlone has an MBA from DePaul University in Chicago and bachelor's of science and arts degrees from Illinois State University. He is a CFA Charter holder and has earned a Financial Risk Manager designation. X LinkedIn 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

In this conversation, Tom Bodrovics and Doomberg explore the geopolitical and energy market implications of the ongoing Ukraine war, with a focus on the diesel crisis and Europe’s precarious energy dependence. Doomberg argues that the primary driver of elevated diesel prices is not the Iran conflict but Ukraine’s systematic attacks on Russian refinery assets, which reduce global refining capacity and tighten distillate markets. He notes the irony that Europe, heavily reliant on diesel imports, is among the most exposed to these price spikes. While the world is adapting through higher refinery utilization and alternative supply deals, the situation remains fragile, with inventories low and any further disruption potentially triggering a severe crisis. The discussion then turns to the broader strategic miscalculation of treating Russia as anything less than a great power. Doomberg emphasizes that Russia’s energy leverage, nuclear arsenal, and industrial capacity make it a formidable adversary, and that Europe’s decision to sever energy ties without viable alternatives was strategically naive. He predicts that the war’s outcome will be determined by military imposition, not diplomacy, and points to signs of Ukraine’s degrading air defenses as a harbinger of a potential phase shift in the conflict. The threat of escalation, including the risk of false-flag attacks on civilian aircraft, underscores the dangerous volatility of the current moment. Full Video is available on Substack Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:24 - Diesel Crisis and Molecular Risks 00:04:19 - Russia Energy Dependency Examined 00:11:14 - Ukraine War Geopolitics and Endgame 00:14:44 - Air Defenses & Mental Models 00:25:00 - Escalation and False Flag Risks 00:27:04 - Iran Sanctions and China Leverage 00:39:03 - Canada Energy Alignment Strategy 00:40:48 - Substack Subscribers 00:44:54 - Narratives & Bovine Excrement 00:54:24 - Investor Positioning and AI Risks 00:55:55 - Finding Satisfaction Guest: Doomberg — Head Writer For The Doomberg Team and Creator of the Doomberg Substack Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems. Substack X Website 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

Chase Taylor, global macro strategist at Pinecone Macro, analyzed the recent Treasury bond market intervention, characterizing it as an unforced error that inadvertently signaled a shift toward yield curve control. The initial modest buyback program quickly escalated into a commitment to use the Treasury General Account to cap long-term yields, undermining the Federal Reserve’s earlier stance and damaging joint credibility. This intervention, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions, has intensified inflationary pressures. Taylor highlighted diesel prices as a critical driver, with inventories at 1996 lows and high crack spreads feeding into core inflation through transportation costs. He also warned of El Niño’s potential to disrupt global agriculture, particularly sugar, coffee, and cocoa, adding another layer of price pressure. On geopolitics, Taylor argued that economic sanctions against Iran are unlikely to force surrender, as the country has long adapted to such measures through smuggling and alternative trade networks. He noted Iran’s escalation dominance, meaning it can retaliate in ways that inflict greater economic pain on the US, such as disrupting energy infrastructure. This dynamic could accelerate capital outflows and eventually lead to capital controls, especially if inflation remains sticky. In this environment, gold emerges as a clear beneficiary, repricing higher as the Treasury’s actions signal a willingness to inflate away debt. Despite Western investor apathy, gold’s monetary properties make it a compelling hedge. Taylor also discussed structural weaknesses in US manufacturing and defense, emphasizing the loss of industrial capacity and the politicization of technology, which hampers innovation. He advocated for a disciplined, probabilistic approach to investing, stressing risk management, self-awareness, and the importance of studying cognitive biases. He recommended diversifying internationally and maintaining a rational, non-tribal mindset to navigate the complex macro landscape. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:54 - Bond Market Intervention 00:04:27 - Escalation Traps in Markets 00:10:50 - Inflation Channels and El Nino 00:20:35 - Diesel and Energy Inflation 00:30:20 - SPR and Jet Fuel Issues 00:36:32 - Gold and Precious Metals 00:47:13 - Iran Sanctions Path Forward 01:00:20 - Missile Limitations and Ukraine 01:11:27 - Technology and AI Future 01:17:39 - Thinking and Biases 01:26:03 - Trading Discipline and Risk 01:35:30 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: Chase Taylor — Global Macro Strategist and Editor at Pinecone Macro Chase Taylor is a macro trader and the global macro strategist and editor at Pinecone Macro Research. He recently became Head of Research at Bullwark Capital Management. Chase launched PMR in 2018, where he provides unique macro insights and analysis in a weekly and monthly research product. Chase does not come from Wall Street or business school, but the military. He prides himself on being a self-taught macro thinker and practitioner. Chase started in the Air Force working on B-1 Bombers, but spent most of his career as a geospatial intelligence analyst, working on strategic and tactical intelligence problem sets. He has also worked in acquisitions at a research laboratory focused on rocket propulsion. Chase combines the analytical techniques he learned in the intelligence community with a unique focus on history and nature to create a distinctive macro framework. He combines technical analysis, fundamental changes, and the power of narratives and reflexivity to uncover asymmetric investments. Substack X Website Website iPencil 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

Hedge fund manager Chris MacIntosh offers a stark assessment of the current financial system, arguing it is held together by the immense power to manipulate credit through front-end Treasury yields. This power, however, is reaching its limits. He identifies three interconnected bubbles propped up by this manipulation: the AI-driven equity bubble, a massive private credit bubble, and the foundational sovereign debt bubble. The long end of the bond market, which central banks cannot easily control, is signaling a significant shift, with rising long-term yields threatening to unravel the entire structure. MacIntosh details how the private credit bubble is silently imploding as debt, financed at ultra-low rates, rolls over into a much higher interest rate environment. This is forcing highly leveraged, illiquid funds to gate redemptions, exposing pension funds and retail investors who were unknowingly sold this risk. Simultaneously, the AI bubble is sustained by a passive-capital feedback loop, but the massive CapEx is now being financed with debt rather than equity as free cash flows collapse, a model he deems unsustainable without future profits. He contextualizes these financial dynamics within a broader geopolitical and societal shift, arguing that Western "democracies" are run by competing corporate interests, not elected officials. The dollar-based system, enforced by military might, is waning. Consequently, vested interests are racing to build a replacement control system based on central bank digital currencies and a global surveillance infrastructure, securing key geopolitical chokepoints in the process. Given these converging risks, MacIntosh advocates for a probabilistic investment approach focused on asymmetry and value. He points to the extreme undervaluation of hard assets—commodities and energy—relative to overvalued U.S. equities. Similarly, emerging markets like China present significant opportunity, as negative sentiment is already deeply priced in. Ultimately, he stresses that ignoring these uncomfortable but clear structural problems is a decision in itself, and ownership of tangible, non-manufacturable assets is the logical response to a system prioritizing financialization over fundamental value. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:01:04 - Why Markets Stayed Together 00:03:10 - Three Major Bubbles Identified 00:04:37 - Private Credit Bubble Explored 00:09:46 - AI Bubble and Passive Investing 00:16:50 - Global Capital Allocations 00:21:20 - Value in Commodities and Markets 00:26:10 - Dollar Reserve Currency Future 00:37:46 - Increasing Overt Conflict 00:50:45 - Energy and Diesel Shortages 00:55:43 - Hard Assets and Ownership Guest: Chris MacIntosh — Hedge Fund Manager and Founder of Capitalist Exploits Raised in Southern Africa, Chris Macintosh has since lived and invested from sevent different countries. After a career at top-tier investment banks such as JP Morgan, Lehman, Robert Flemmings and Invesco, Chris became tired of corporate life, and has since built and sold multiple million dollar companies, overseen $35 million into venture capital, all the while investing full time, and managing his own and private client wealth. X Website 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

Recorded on: August 19, 2026 Your host, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back the market sniper himself Francis Hunt to the show. Francis Hunt is the Renegade Trader, Analyst, and the Founder of The Market Sniper. The discussion centers on a dramatic gold price surge and the underlying debt market distress. Hunt explains that the Federal Reserve is cornered, unable to maneuver as major holders like Japan face a “Hotel California” scenario with U.S. Treasuries unable to sell without triggering a crash, forced instead into repurchase agreements. This debt debasement, he argues, is a Western malaise, with the U.S. as the hegemon suffering most. The crisis is not isolated; the UK gilt market has already seen intervention, and similar pressures are building globally. In this environment, gold becomes the ultimate safe haven, with Hunt detailing a live trade that capitalized on a technical breakout, using his HVF methodology to enter long positions ahead of the news-driven rally. He emphasizes that gold moves first, with silver expected to outperform later once the gold-silver ratio completes a head-and-shoulders pattern. Turning to currencies, Hunt challenges the DXY’s relevance, showing that the dollar has been steadily devaluing against key trade partners like China and Mexico, which better reflect America’s structural deficit. He illustrates true inflation through a “Mars bar index,” demonstrating a 7.5% annual debasement over 31 years, far above official figures. The conversation also touches on soft commodities, with bullish technical setups in cocoa and coffee. Throughout, Hunt advocates for self-reliance, sound money, and using trading opportunities to build wealth and optionality, urging listeners to protect themselves from the coming debt reset by stacking physical precious metals and maintaining integrity and joy in the face of dystopian trends. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:30 - Gold Price Surge Analysis 00:03:00 - Debt & Open Secrets 00:06:30 - U.K. Malaise & Western Debt 00:10:00 - Kospi and Downsides 00:14:30 - Bonds and Finding Exits 00:19:43 - Gold Silver Ratio Patterns 00:25:20 - Dollar Devaluation Insights 00:31:50 - Inflation Mars Bar Index 00:39:49 - Embracing Life 00:43:40 - Soft Commodities Outlook 00:48:50 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: Francis Hunt — Renegade Trader, Analyst, & Founder of The Market Sniper Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade? He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis. Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals. He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders. X X Website YouTube 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Chris Vermeulen to the show. Chris Vermeulen is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer at 'The Technical Traders'. Chris discusses the broadening of the stock market, with the MAG 7 stocks losing momentum and money rotating into other sectors like semiconductors and small caps. He sees this as a sign of strength, with the market potentially poised for one more big push higher. Chris analyzes the technical indicators, noting the positive price action, bullish moving average trends, and improving sentiment. Regarding gold and silver, Chris is cautious, viewing the recent rally as a potential bear trap that could quickly reverse. He believes the long-term trends remain bearish, and any further upside will need to break key resistance levels to confirm a shift in the trend. Chris is also closely watching the US dollar, which he believes could continue strengthening, putting further pressure on precious metals. Looking at the broader market, Chris sees potential risks on the horizon, including rising interest rates, inflation, and the possibility of a financial crisis. He believes the best strategy is to remain nimble, following the price trends and being quick to protect capital when necessary. Chris suggests cash and the US dollar as potential defensive positions if a significant market downturn occurs. Overall, Chris maintains a cautious yet opportunistic outlook, ready to adapt his positioning as market conditions evolve. He emphasizes the importance of focusing on price action and trends rather than emotions or biases when navigating the current market environment. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:16 - Market Broadening Beyond Mag 7 00:03:42 - Price Time Sentiment Factors 00:05:54 - Moving Averages Bullish Signals 00:07:08 - Sentiment And FOMO Analysis 00:13:00 - Currency Dollar Trends 00:15:52 - Interest Rates Outlook 00:21:02 - Oil Chart Analysis 00:26:15 - Gold Silver Behavior Shift 00:34:27 - Lumber Economic Indicator 00:41:23 - Recovery Trap Warning 00:45:55 - New Book & Wrap Up Guest: Chris Vermeulen — Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Technical Traders Chris Vermeulen is the Founder & Chief Investment Officer of The Technical Traders and the visionary mind behind Asset Revesting. In his book Asset Revesting – How to Exclusively Hold Assets Rising in Value, Profit During Bear Markets, and Continue Building Wealth in Retirement, he lays out this investment framework. Chris launched his financial career at 16, parlaying his knack for trading and risk management into funding his final year of college, where he earned a business diploma in operations management. By his twenties, he had achieved financial independence as a full-time entrepreneur and trader. After a setback—blowing up a trading account—Chris dedicated himself to treating trading as a business, completing the Trading Strategy Mastery and Trading Is Your Business courses. A technical analysis expert, he devises systematic methods to spot market opportunities and control portfolio risk, rejecting traditional buy-and-hold approaches that cling to depreciating assets. His efficient asset allocation models balance short- and long-term strategies to minimize drawdowns and consistently outperform benchmarks. Those seeking reliable capital preservation and growth turn to his proven techniques. Website X Amazon Books 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

David Hunter, Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors, maintains his highly bullish short-term outlook for equities, believing the stock market is in the final stages of a 44-year secular bull market that began in 1982. He anticipates a "melt-up" that could drive the S&P 500 to 10,000 and the NASDAQ to 36,000, representing a 30-35% gain compressed into just a few months. He attributes this potential surge not to new liquidity creation, but to existing capital being deployed as market momentum and shifting investor psychology overcome current cautious narratives. Hunter presents a contrarian view on interest rates, arguing that the recent rise in yields is a counter-trend move tied to oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions with Iran. He expects both oil and bond yields to roll over soon, with the 10-year Treasury yield potentially falling below 4% and eventually to 3%, providing a tailwind for stocks. He also sees gold and silver breaking out of their multi-month consolidation, setting the stage for a steep rally with targets of $7,000 for gold and $200 for silver, potentially topping alongside equities. This melt-up, however, sets the stage for a severe global bust. Hunter warns that the highly leveraged financial system will face a deflationary crash, potentially an 80% decline in equities, as the Federal Reserve, under Chair Warsh, will be slow to provide liquidity. This bust will force the Fed’s hand, leading to massive money printing that ignites the next cycle. That subsequent cycle, he predicts, will be inflationary and commodity-driven, with oil potentially soaring from a bust low of $30 to $500 a barrel, and precious metals seeing even larger gains over the following decade. He advises that the coming bust will present a generational buying opportunity in commodities. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:20 - Melt-Up Thesis Update 00:04:19 - 44-Year Bull Market Drivers 00:10:50 - Fed Policy and Liquidity 00:16:47 - Liquidity Catalyst Discussion 00:20:20 - Oil & Market Psychology 00:27:29 - Inflation Fighting and Rates 00:31:48 - U.S. War Economics 00:35:23 - Melt-Up and Metals 00:43:00 - Gold and S&P Ratio 00:45:04 - Housing Market Correction 00:48:10 - Investment Strategies and ETFs 00:49:45 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: David Hunter — Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd. X 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.