Grounded with Jon Tester & Maritsa Georgiou

As it stands, Democrats have a 54-44 majority in the Senate, with results still pending in Alaska and Mississippi. They have 241 seats in the House and expected to gain more. Kansas is sending a Democrat to the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1932. James Talarico will be the first Democratic senator from Texas since 1988. Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first Black woman elected governor of any U.S. state, one of a record number of female governors voted in. And Democrats hit a new milestone with 100 women in the House. Sam Forstag is the first Democrat to take a U.S. House seat in Montana since 1994. And yes, the Montana Plan passed. Adam Klasfeld of All Rise News joins us to break down the results, what comes next from a legal standpoint, and the remarkable absence of wild claims about a rigged election. Plus, could this mean a larger turning of the page?

Three days out and we decided to continue our marathon episode run with another candidate: Justin J. Pearson, known as one of the “Tennessee Three,” who’s now running for U.S. House. Pearson tells us how the redistricting fight in the South has dramatically changed his race, what he’s hearing from Republicans and Democrats alike, and why he frames his politics as “justice rooted in love.” We also address some of the rumors circulating about Jon and the Montana Senate race… again. It’s spooky season, which means there are a lot of efforts to spread fear right now. Remember your critical thinking skills and let’s stay grounded in facts, in reason, and in this community. Happy Halloween, friends! We will be back with you Tuesday!

We are days away from ELECTION DAY and we asked our favorite election data nerd (and former Obama campaign manager + University of Montana superfan) Jim Messina to join us to break down the state of the races. And we literally go down the battleground list one by one in a psuedo-lightning round. Messina breaks down his predictions for the Senate, the House, and another category of races he thinks is commonly overlooked. “If you care about the presidential election in 2028, you actually care the most about governors' races. Governors' races are the most predictive thing about who wins the next presidential,” Messina said. “And I’ve really spent a bunch of time looking at all these. And I think there’s a chance [Democrats are] going to win every single governor’s race in every battleground state.” Messina lays out his advice for exactly what the Democrats should do first if they win control of the House and Senate. And just wait until you hear how many potential 2028 presidential candidates Jim has already met with. 🤯 Get out and vote, friends! And bring someone with you!

There’s a whole lot of noise about threats to the midterm elections, now eight days away. We asked David Becker from the Center for Election Innovation & Research to come back and help us get grounded in logic and facts. Let’s start with the good news: Becker says we will blow past 30 million votes already cast at some point today. “The highest turnout we’ve ever had for a midterm election was in 2018, 118 million ballots cast,” Becker said. “So we’re going to blow past 25% of that eight days before the election. And still the vast majority of mail ballots haven’t come back in. No one has voted on Election Day yet. Early voting is still going on in almost all of the 47 states.” Becker notes that we saw the highest ever midterm election turnout in 2018 at 50%. He’s cautiously optimistic we will break that record this cycle, but says if we get to 53%, it would be a “tsunami.” Now to the bad news. We cover a lot of the major concerns right now, including the fears about ICE at the polls, DOJ voter-data pushes, voting machine worries, and the very real efforts to lay the groundwork to challenge the results of the election. We also talk about why Becker feels confident we will see the results certified. “I know some people are really worried when they see the federal government mobilize to interfere with our election in a way that we’ve never seen before in American history. And that’s awful,” Becker said. “We should not normalize that. It’s really bad, and it’s taken a lot of work. But on the other hand, it’s really desperate, isn’t it? It’s really kind of pathetic in a way. They’re failing at everything.” If you haven’t voted yet, make sure you have a plan! If you still have a mail-in ballot to return, it’s probably best to deliver it yourself. Eight days to go!

In the final weeks of the campaign cycle, JT has been traveling across the country stumping for candidates. He returned from Kansas last week and couldn’t quit talking about the Democratic candidate in the KS-02 House race, Don Coover , who’s also a West Point grad, Army vet, veterinarian, and rancher. Coover joined us to talk about why he jumped into politics, how tariffs are squeezing his fellow ranchers and farmers, and the massive impact ICE raids have had on his community. You had people, American citizens, afraid to go out and conduct business or travel around because they were afraid of being harassed and picked up. And so It makes a very hostile environment,” Coover said. “I think fear is incredibly contagious. I saw that in the army. And I also believe that courage is very contagious.” Plus, what’s more difficult? Calving season or campaign season? Don’t miss our live show Monday, Oct. 26 at noon eastern, when our friend David Becker from the Center for Election Innovation & Research comes back to answer all of your election questions. If there’s something specific you want us to ask him, please drop us a comment!

We didn’t mean for this episode to turn into a lesson on furries for Jon Tester, but here we are. Former Sen. Doug Jones is in a rematch against Sen. Tommy Tuberville—this time for governor of Alabama. This is a state that has voted for the Republican nominee in every presidential election going back to 1980, and which Trump won in 2024 with 64.6% of the vote. Even while we were live, Alabamians were in the chat telling us about Trump supporters in their lives who plan to vote for Doug in this race. “It’s kind of that silent majority that we’ve heard so much about in the past, that folks in this era of retribution, they don’t want to put a Doug Jones sign in their yard,” Jones said. “There’s just something that we have felt on the ground. We believe it will translate into a win. I remind people that even in a losing effort in 2020, I got more votes than any Democrats ever gotten in the history of Alabama and enough to win any governor’s race in the history of the state.” Jones point to fielding Democratic candidates for every constitutional office race for the first time since 2006, along with packed town halls he’s been hosting across the state. He lays out his plan for affordability, why he wants a one-year moratorium on data centers, and yes, his response to the wild video of Tommy Tuberville talking about furries on the Senate floor—a video Jon Tester hadn’t seen before today. Tester will join Jones, Sen. Cory Booker and Rep. Shomari C. Figures on the campaign trail in Alabama Thursday, and we hope to jump on for a short livestream as they’re on the bus. Let’s hope there are no Booker/Tester chest bumps as the bus is moving at high speeds. We have two weeks to go, friends. If you’ve voted already, great job! If you haven’t, make sure you get those ballots in. If you need to check your registration or polling place, track your ballot, or learn about what’s on your ballot, vote.org is one of many fabulous resources.

We hobbled our way through some more technical difficulties, but are grateful for another chance to talk with retired federal judge Diane Wood, who sat on the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeal. She is now one of about 60 retired federal judges who formed the Article III Coalition through Keep Our Republic. Judge Wood stresses the importance of judicial accountability, her proposal for more oversight of the Supreme Cours, and attacks on the judiciary. “It is uncharted territory, I think. There have always, as you said, been some instances of attacks on the judiciary,” Wood said. “But what’s different now is that the source of the problem seems to be the president, not some random disappointed litigant who doesn’t have good judgment. That’s new and entirely inappropriate.”

With less than four weeks until the midterms, officials across the country are preparing as the federal pressure on our election administrators ramps up. Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar, who also chairs the Democratic Association of Secretaries of State, joins us to discuss the Trump administration’s decision to shut international election observers out, the new push to seize voting machines through the Commerce Department, and what voters should do if they see any kind of meddling or intimidation at the polls. Aguilar’s primary message? “We just need people to make a plan to vote and we just need them to actually f*$&ing show up to vote.” 27 days. Let’s go.

This week, the USS Abraham Lincoln is scheduled to return to San Diego after a near-record 10+ month deployment during which we heard reports of suicide attempts, food shortages, plumbing problems, deteriorating mental health and overall abysmal conditions. “First and foremost, it's absolutely not normal,” former Secretary of the U.S. Navy Carlos Del Toro said. “And it's a disaster over there at the Pentagon, or as you may put it, Senator, it's a shit show, quite frankly. And it's very, very tragic.” Del Toro joined us to do a deep dive on the war in Iran, from deployments to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—or Strait of Trump if you go with Jon Tester’s preference. Del Toro discusses what he sees as missing strategy and where our operational readiness stands after a newly announced plan to cut 20% of U.S. military generals and admirals, a depletion of munitions, and damage to our bases in the Middle East. We also talk about potential military action in Cuba, concerns about the South China Sea, and the recent call from President Trump for Iran to attack Los Angeles or San Diego. “I wonder how the Republicans in Orange County, California are feeling right now. About their president, commander-in-chief saying basically let him drop a nuke on Los Angeles and San Diego,” Del Toro questioned. “It's not a good feeling. I don't think we've ever seen anything like this.” “This is incredible bullshit that this guy is presenting, and people are buying it,” Tester added. “People are cheering when he says we should bomb fucking Los Angeles. Are you kidding me? This is just total insanity. Total insanity.”

We had a little communication snafu this morning and our scheduled guest never made it to the live show. We’re working with her team to reschedule! That didn’t stop us from devoting almost an hour to headlines, including the bizarre turn of events at Jack Smith’s testimony in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee. We also discuss Congress ceding more of its power as the administration continues to shift appropriated money elsewhere. Plus, new lawsuits over Renee Good’s killing, the Cornell frat assault investigation, and the scrapped plan to play a Major League Baseball game in a national park. And are we really talking about whether Richard Nixon got a raw deal? Lots to cover in this one.

As we start a new work week, major TV news networks suspended their pooled coverage of President Donald Trump after he banned CNN, MS NOW and Politico journalists from the White House over the weekend. The three outlets filed a lawsuit against the president and three top advisers Monday, saying the ban violates the First Amendment. We welcome our friend Jim Acosta , whose own White House credentials were famously removed in 2018, to break down Donald Trump’s latest assault on the free press. Jim walks us through how the pool coverage works, what the press collectively needs to do next, and why he thinks this is really a distraction from gas prices and the war in Iran. “[Trump] doesn’t want to be held accountable,” Acosta said. “And so I think this is a harbinger of bad things to come because I don’t think he’s going to honor the election results. I could be wrong about that, but I think he’s going to try to avoid the seating of a new Congress, which will plunge the country into, I think, a constitutional crisis. And this assault on the press, I think, is to some extent sort of lay the groundwork for Really, you know, full frontal assault on the Constitution.”

In The New York Times this morning, a top headline reads, “Republicans Reel on the Midterm Map as Deep-Red Areas Come Into Play.” The article discusses the battleground of Georgia, but also vulnerabilities for Republicans in Kansas and Nebraska. The story doesn’t include Montana’s House race in the western district, where new polling shows Democrat Sam Forstag in a dead heat with Republican Aaron Flint. It also doesn’t mention Michigan’s first Congressional district, where Callie Barr is waging a rematch of her 2024 race against Republican incumbent Jack Bergman. Barr is a lawyer, former high school English teacher and a military spouse who took care of her husband when he returned from Iraq and Afghanistan with PTSD and a brain injury. Barr lost by more than 20 points in 2024, but she tells us why she thinks voter sentiment will work in her favor this time around, with her own internal polling showing a close race. “Folks can’t even go to work because gas is too high. You know, they’re having problems buying groceries. This is real stuff,” Barr said. “And it’s just kind of the basic necessities of life that folks can’t afford. And it’s rising costs because of corruption.” Barr says voters in her district care deeply about those rising prices, but also rural hospital closures, and veterans issues. And with all of that in play, you won’t believe what most people write to her complaining about. Plus, JT gets pretty spicy over the headlines. 47 days to go.

A few years ago, former White House Communications Director Jennifer Palmieri found herself needing help in north central Montana. Her rented mini van was stuck on a snow-covered road a mile (or two) from Jon Tester’s farm, where she was meeting him for an interview to be featured on The Circus. “It was great television, but mortifying,” Palmieri said. “But yes, Jon Tester big time came to our rescue.” “The truth is that a staff member was supposed to tell you not to go down that road and he forgot,” Tester said. "So it really wasn’t your fault, but it sure was fun to blame you.” Beyond the snowy hiccup, Palmieri joined Grounded to talk about her new venture hosting and producing Long Play, a series exploring the South, and the path forward for Democrats to dig themselves out from being stuck on the proverbial political road when it comes to winning elections in the region. “If you can’t win the South, you can’t lead America,” Palmieri said. Palmieri explains why southern voters feel misunderstood, the history lessons that have shaped the southern political environment today, and the shifts she sees on the ground. Plus, we talk about electability, independent candidates, and the wildest rumor she ever had to deal with as a comms director. Before our chat with Palmieri, we discuss new bombshell ProPublica reporting that a Russian oligarch close to Putin secretly paid for parts of Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding in the Bahamas. Jon, who sits on Anthropic’s advisory board, also weighs in on AI safety and why Congress needs to act on regulation.

We wanted to take a moment on the 25th anniversary of terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. We hope you take some time to reflect on all of the lives we lost that day, and also a moment for the more than 9,000 people who have died since from their exposure to toxic materials in the aftermath.

Independent candidates are hoping to leave their mark on the 2026 midterm elections, with 47 on the ballot for U.S. Senate alone. And Montana’s race might be the wildest of them all. Former University of Montana president and Army veteran Seth Bodnar joins Grounded to make his case for Montana’s open U.S. Senate seat. We clear the air on why he is running as an independent, what he’s hearing from voters, and why he thinks people are hungry for leadership that’s not beholden to either party. As for why he decided to run? “Every veteran has a little bit of survivor’s guilt. I was really lucky. You know, I didn’t face what so many did,” Bodnar said. “But I’ve got friends who are in the ground who gave the ultimate sacrifice for this country. I have the privilege— I was blessed to be able to live, to be able to have kids, to be able to have a family. And I owe it to them. To try to do right by this country, the country they died for. And I’d be damned if I’m going to stand aside and watch it go to hell.” The conversation includes his latest pledge on AI data centers, Medicaid cuts, housing costs, and the attacks he’s faced on the campaign trail. Plus, his military perspective on the escalating war in Iran. “When you politicize the U.S. military, you strike at the very heart of what makes this country special,” the former Green Beret said. “I’ve got a lot to say about the U.S. military, but I'm deeply, deeply concerned.” Make sure you stick around for the new reason Maritsa will only be addressing Jon Tester as “sir” from now on.

Grounded welcomes former Ambassador to Japan and White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, known for his aggressive political style, who kicks things off by reminiscing about trying to recruit Jon Tester to run for the House instead of the Senate back in 2006 (spoiler: it was really about beating Chuck Schumer). We have a wide ranging conversation that’s at times playful and at other times blunt and unfiltered. We discuss what Emanuel calls a dangerous erosion of American deterrence with China, North Korea, and Russia, which he says is being tested right now. We also dive into some of the more contentious issues showing up in political conversations, including the fight over the future of the Democratic Party and the discussions around Israel and Gaza—with his stances at times drawing pushback from those in his own party. Plus, why Emanuel says winning red and purple districts is imperative in the interest of delivering progressive legislation.

Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, has long been telling us to follow the money—especially when it comes to Jeffrey Epstein. Wyden joins Grounded to break down a bombshell investigation his office conducted over four years that revealed major banking institutions looked the other way on Jeffrey Epstein’s crimes and how regulators may have also done the same. Wyden explains more about the documents he’s still trying to get, the lack of help from his colleagues across the aisle, and his promise to hold people accountable. Plus, Wyden spills the tea on what it was really like living next to Jon Tester.

Former Washington Gov. Jay Inslee joins Grounded way too early in the morning to discuss the devastating wildfires out west, worsening climate change impacts, and the drivers behind soaring energy costs. Inslee, who leads the Climate Power accountability project, also lays out what he calls the “four C’s” — cost, chaos, corruption, and climate denial — defining the current political moment. Plus, how will accountability and anti-corruption messaging play out this election cycle? Come for the environmental policy chat, stay for the Brandi Carlile love fest at the end!