Gordon Kerr's Credit Compass: Navigating European Credit Markets

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines widening French government bond spreads and the potential for European Central Bank intervention, alongside a landmark provisional agreement on European securitisation reform and what it could mean for credit markets. Gordon also explores progress on Europe’s competitiveness agenda, highlights KBRA’s latest U.S. credit outlook, and assesses the key risks shaping market sentiment.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores how political instability in France, growing scrutiny of artificial intelligence financing, and tentative signs of recovery in the UK are creating competing forces across European credit markets. He examines how these developments are shaping investor confidence, borrowing costs, and the availability of capital, and why economic fundamentals ultimately matter more than headlines.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores how Europe is navigating a delicate balance between economic resilience and mounting external pressures, as a new European Union (EU)-China trade understanding, LVMH’s latest earnings, and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) updated outlook reveal both opportunities and vulnerabilities. Gordon explores Europe’s evolving competitiveness agenda, persistent inflation risks, and widening credit spreads—and what these developments could mean for European credit markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses how political uncertainty is colliding with fiscal pressure across Europe, with France increasingly at the centre of investor attention. This episode examines France’s budget challenge, shifting European politics, and why rising Japanese yields could have unexpected consequences for European sovereign debt.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses how Europe’s economic picture is becoming increasingly divided, with manufacturing showing signs of recovery even as inflation and cautious consumers weigh on retail activity. Gordon also examines the UK government’s emerging industrial and fiscal strategy, as well as new Office for National Statistics (ONS) productivity measures that reshape our understanding of Britain’s long-running productivity challenge.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores Europe’s push to improve competitiveness, deepen its capital markets, and strengthen energy security, while considering the political and implementation challenges that could slow progress. Gordon also looks at the Bank of England’s redesigned quantitative tightening (QT) programme, Germany’s regional election shock, and new KBRA research on transatlantic private credit and sovereign yield curves.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how persistent inflation, energy-market pressures, shifting EU-China trade policy, and deeper Canada-Europe ties are reshaping the outlook for European credit. Gordon also explores the topic of what stronger UK growth and changing rate expectations could mean for markets as autumn volatility begins to build.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores the renewed pressure on European bond markets from inflation risks, improving growth, fiscal challenges, and political uncertainty, which reinforce the prospect of higher rates for longer. Gordon also discusses new European Central Bank research on both synthetic securitisation and the artificial intelligence investment boom, as both could reshape Europe’s markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, unpacks the key messages from Jackson Hole, Wyoming,[SP1] examines what the latest euro-area inflation data could mean for the European Central Bank (ECB), and considers why the Bank of England may have more room to wait. We also look at the G20 discussions, rising geopolitical and trade risks, the resurgence of UK mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and what higher sovereign yields could mean for European credit markets in the weeks ahead.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses how Germany’s economy is showing signs of life, but the recovery remains heavily dependent on exports and manufacturing. He examines the latest GDP data, improving business confidence, and why Germany’s pension reforms could have longer-term implications for European capital markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines three constraints reshaping European credit: drought and low river levels, evolving bank capital rules, and increasingly scarce power connections for data centres. He explores how each could affect costs, competition, financing, and investment across Europe.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores how Europe's drought is exposing the vulnerability of its inland transport network, creating fresh risks for supply chains, manufacturing, and inflation. He also examines European leveraged credit and what another strong earnings season means for investors.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores wildfires, Europe’s accelerating electric vehicle (EV) transition, and what improving manufacturing data tells us about the region’s economic outlook. As Europe faces another summer of climate shocks, geopolitical uncertainty, and rising energy prices—Gordon comments on a credit story that is more resilient than the headlines suggest.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how higher oil and gas prices could affect inflation, margins, and European Central Bank (ECB) communication; what early corporate results reveal about sector strength; and why Andy Burnham’s early fiscal choices will matter more to markets than the political reset.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, investigates the renewed disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which has complicated Europe’s inflation and interest-rate outlook just as investors prepare for Q2 earnings. Gordon also examines the views of major investment managers, the case for European credit, and the opportunities emerging from the region’s expanding capital-investment cycle.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines the sharp shift in Europe’s inflation narrative, from renewed energy-driven price concerns to a more disinflationary backdrop. The episode also looks at Europe’s tentative growth recovery, the UK’s political and fiscal uncertainty, and Germany’s reform-and-spending package as a potential source of medium-term growth support.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses Germany’s credit story as it shifts between labour-market pressure, rising insolvencies, Schuldschein stress, and a potentially important pension-reform proposal. The episode also explores defensive European Union (EU) trade measures, artificial intelligence (AI)-related debt issuance, and why European Central Bank (ECB) rate risk remains relevant for European credit investors.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses private credit defaults with KBRA Direct Lending Deals. Rachel McGovern and Eric Rosenthal join in a conversation with Gordon, highlighting the performance of European direct lending.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores how a tentative Gulf peace deal could lower energy-price risks and support European credit markets, while still leaving uncertainty around oil flows, inflation, and supply-chain normalisation. Gordon also looks at soft European industrial production data and considers how UK political uncertainty, including a possible Andy Burnham path to prime minister, could affect the markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, speaks from Global ABS in Barcelona, where European securitisation markets are showing early signs of renewed momentum amid regulatory reform and growing placed issuance. Gordon also looks at why UK data continue to surprise to the upside, even as consumers remain cautious and fixed income markets navigate inflation, supply, and geopolitical uncertainty.