At Large with Toby Manhire

As the campaign hours tick down, a pantheon of the Spinoff’s brightest gather at the roundtable to sum it all up. What were the most memorable moments, the characters, and the words of the campaign? Lyric Waiwiri-Smith, Hayden Donnell, Liam Rātana and Joel MacManus join Toby to revisit the highlights and lowlights, and square up for a Dragons’-Den-esque showdown to convince you which electorate race will be the most exciting on Saturday night. Vote in the comments! Plus: how are we all doing on the mojo-meter, and our predictions on the number of overhang seats for the next parliament. At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Zoe Madden-Smith and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The opinion polls are coming thick and fast in the final days of the 2026 NZ election campaign. But when two emerge at the same time delivering markedly different results, should we be sceptical about the story they tell? Murray Campbell of The Research Association of New Zealand joins Toby to discuss the varying methods for collecting opinion data, the processes by which that information is weighted, and what the margin of error can and can’t tell us.Plus: are the media fairly presenting the results, what are the challenges with electorate polls, including Māori seats, what to make of brands like Infrastructure NZ and the Taxpayers’ Union bankrolling polls, and what is the deal with Curia withdrawing from the pollsters’ association?At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Zoe Madden-Smith and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Māori electorates are always exciting but this time it’s really edge-of-the-seat. TVNZ Māori affairs correspondent Te Aniwa Hurihanganui joins Toby to walk through the electorate, and explain why Te Tai Tokerau is the pick of the bunch. Plus: the issues and personalities dominating the debate among Māori, and reflections on the kaupapa Māori debate, which Hurihanganui chaired with Scotty Morrison. At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Zoe Madden-Smith and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Support our mahi by joining Spinoff Members: https://thespinoff.co.nz/members Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With just over a week to the election, the Labour leader is in with a shot of becoming the first New Zealander since Keith Holyoake to serve non-consecutive terms as prime minister. In the latest of our leader interviews, he defends an approach criticised for its small target and lack of boldness, discusses the impact of overhang and legitimacy, and reveals how embracing the philosophy of stoicism has changed his life.At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Zoe Madden-Smith and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In March 2024 Chlöe Swarbrick became co-leader of the Greens – right in the middle of what can only be described as a crisis year for the party. Today, they’ve jumped to around 15% in polling, and Swarbrick is under intense fire from Nicola Willis and the incumbent coalition. So how did they turn it around, do the Greens’ economic prescriptions hold up to scrutiny, and could they really work coherently with Labour?At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Zoe Madden-Smith and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Across 12 years as Act leader, David Seymour has taken the party from 0.5% to two terms with a decent sized caucus and 18 months in the role of deputy prime minister. He goes into the 2026 election presenting as the stable leg of the coalition tripod, but how does that square with the scenes sparked by his treaty principles bill and this new focus on “one law for all”? In the latest of our leader series for At Large, Seymour tells Toby whether he still thinks people who didn’t get enrolled are “dropkicks”, Epsom and the overhang strategy, how he’s got on working with Winston Peters, whom he once called a “clown”, Adam Smith and Pharmac. At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

At its fourth time of trying, the Opportunity Party is on track for something unprecedented: making it to parliament. And a massive part of that is down to its new leader: Qiulae Wong. What is she doing differently? How does the party, with its powerful board, work? Is it really a party of change? What does she say to the allegations from former members about a “toxic” culture? And has she even met Gareth Morgan? Wong sits down with Toby for the latest At Large leader interview.At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Zoe Madden-Smith and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Advertising campaigns are meant to capture the popular imagination, just not like this. A bank called Kiwi, a green sheep called Buck and giddy humans combined over recent days to create a strange fable for our times. Hayden Donnell joins Toby to walk us through the story that went from a pocket of the internet, via his post for the Spinoff (headline: “Kiwibank is desperately trying to stop people saying they want to f*** its sheep mascot”) and all the way to the John Oliver show.Plus: Lyric Waiwiri-Smith steps off the big pink bus to lay down the gauntlet in How Good, asking should huge campaign vehicles in fact be obligatory?At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Zoe Madden-Smith and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ali Mau first appeared on New Zealand screens more than three decades ago. She went on to run, for five years, the #MeTooNZ project for Stuff. Last year she published No Words for This – an autobiography the Spinoff called “gripping and revelatory”. Last month, after years of work, Mau and lawyer Zoë Lawton pressed go on Tika: a globally pioneering online service for survivors of sexual harm that joins the dots between survivors. What are the experiences that led to creating this technology? How does Tika work? And – a few weeks in – what has been the volume of response been so far? And as images from the Cornell Seven and elsewhere flood our feeds, how does she assess the state of media and the legal system 10 years on from the advent of #MeToo? At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills, Zoe Madden-Smith and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Winston Peters is contesting his 18th election this year; if you count a couple of by-elections, it’s his 20th campaign. He’s been giving ‘main character’ energy since he first entered politics with the National Party in 1978, and for more than three decades he’s been the talismanic figurehead of New Zealand First (who this year are polling consistently at or above 10%). Often cast in the role of Kingmaker, he’s now up against a new set of characters vying for the influential role. For our first At Large leader interview, we take a wander through the political archives to find out what drives the Right Honourable Winston Peters in 2026. At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Andrew Campbell was chief press secretary to prime minister Jacinda Ardern through crisis after crisis: the March 15 massacre in Christchurch, the Whakaari (White Island) disaster, and the Covid pandemic. On the publication of his new book, In the Room, Campbell joins Toby to talk through what they got right, what they got wrong, and why there is such an enduring depth of feeling about Ardern today. He also recounts his own approach to the communications role, personal struggle with alcoholism, and how booze has become entwined with the political-media sphere.Plus: Emma Gleason on Che Fu’s great New Zealand album, Navigator, turning 25.At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With the numbers of young people registered to vote at less than two-thirds, and an enrolment period coming to a close a fortnight earlier than recent elections, there is cause for serious concern, says Professor Andrew Geddis, electoral law expert from the University of Otago. We asked you for your questions about the voting process – the rules, the rorts, the practicalities, and here Geddis answers them.Other questions include: What does “splitting your vote” mean and when should someone think about doing it? What is the “overhang strategy”, and what impact will there be if it works? How does the “overhang” work? What’s the deal with large anonymous donations? Should we move to a fairer voting system within electorates? What happens if there is a dead heat in the seats won by each bloc and neither can achieve a majority in parliament? What happens if a party doesn’t have enough names on its list to fill the seats it’s entitled to? How do you vote if you’re bed-bound? How do you vote if you turn 18 after enrolment closes on October 25? Would the Professor be known as “Geddo” if he had a similar profile in Australia? Plus: Tara Ward says forget Florence Pugh: the real star of East of Eden is north of Dunedin.At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In a campaign that sometimes feels like wading through wet cement, James Nokise is attempting the Everest of stand-up challenges – finding the comedy in the election. He’s doing 33 shows from one end of the country to the other as One Night Rant, riffing on the headlines of the day and the questions the audiences ask. He joins Toby to tell us how it’s going so far. What do people think of their politicians? Should those politicians be funnier? And what is the state of political comedy in Aotearoa today? At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The influence and ethics of political lobbying is under the spotlight in the 2026 campaign. What do lobbyists really do, what rules do they play by, and why has NZ failed time after time to do anything to tame the sinister stuff? Holly Bennett, founder and managing director of of Awhi, a kaupapa Māori government relations and communications firm in Auckland, joins Toby to talk it all through.Plus, in How Good, Alice Neville on canned margarita, and why the Mighty Mighty was judged the mightiest of them all.At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the face of a slump in youth enrolment and a campaign that is leaving many people cold or curled up cringing, an army of independent outfits are prodding the cattle and driving engagement – some of them are telling us how to vote.Today we look at the enrolment insurgents including the Ellie Commission and On a Roll, and the tools designed to help you work out which party to vote for, such as Policy, On the Fence and Vote Compass, and talk to two of the people behind those efforts: Shanti Mathias from Policy.nz and Jean Donaldson from On the Fence.At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Three MPs, one party leader and two first-timers met last night at the Spinoff Great Mt Albert Debate. Toby Manhire is joined for a postmortem by Hayden Donnell and Lyric Waiwiri-Smith to assess the highs and lows from a fast-paced and fiery encounter featuring Labour candidate Helen White, who won the seat last time by 18 votes, Melissa Lee of National, the Greens’ Ricardo Menéndez March, Opportunity Party leader Qiulae Wong, Alex Price of the Act Party and NZ First’s Sheldon Eden-Whaitiri.Watch the debate in full here: https://youtu.be/LZO7gu6rhQgAt Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It’s a milestone day for election 2026, with the pre-election fiscal update – Prefu, to you – staged in Wellington. Bernard Hickey emerges blinking from the lockup to assess the state of the accounts. The finance minister, Nicola Willis, has welcomed numbers showing the deficit this year and in years to come down by many billions of dollars. But how much of that is thanks to “fiscal drag”? Does it give Labour meaningful room to pursue its policies? And how likely is it really that the fiscal squabbles will be staunched?Plus: In How Good, Chris Schulz is utterly intoxicated by Elizabeth Holmes and Nathan Fielder in the trailer for You Can See Everything.At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The host of Q+A is typically the Q guy, but here he does the A. Jack Tame sits down with Toby to explain how he’s prepping for next week’s big debate, why Christopher Luxon has avoided his interviews for more than two years, and what the National and Labour campaign launches tell us about the way this campaign will play out.Plus, in How Good, Tara Ward on Whakaata Māori’s This is Home.At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After a flurry of speculation, Nicky Hager last night launched Dirty Work: The Taxpayers’ Union and the New Zealand Hard Right, which he called a sequel of sorts to The Hollow Men of 2006 and Dirty Politics (2014).Hager did not approach those he wrote about for comment, in keeping with what he called his “operational approach, saying that books are “uniquely vulnerable” to tactics to prevent publication. It did not take long, however, for those who are featured in the book to challenge the veracity of its contents, as well as the methodology. In an email to supporters last night, the Taxpayers’ Union’s founder and executive director, Jordan Williams, decried a "full frontal attack", charging that Hager had “ignored the most basic principles of fair journalism: put serious allegations to the people accused and give them a reasonable opportunity to respond.” We speak to Hager about the book and the case it makes, and seek his response to the rebuttals.At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The government today published a review of its approach to funding events across NZ. That includes $40m for concerts, in a programme launched a year ago like a Robbie Williams chorus. Chris Schulz, writer of the Boiler Room newsletter and Spinoff contributor, joins Toby to talk through the goals of the fund, what is has achieved and where it fell short.Plus: Emma Gleason on the pick of the political merchandise in election 2026.At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices