Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens
Published by Rob Moreno
Sports
Fantasy Sports
Fighting With Numbers is the UFC betting podcast where analytics meet fight talk. Hosted by Rob Moreno of VSiN's First Strike, each episode breaks down upcoming cards through model grades, matchup data, and betting angles that actually matter. No hype, no clickbait — just data-driven analysis that helps you read the lines, not the headlines. Whether you’re chasing sharp value, tracking fighter trends, or just love hearing the story behind the stats, this show gives you the edge every fight week. New episodes drop every week — where numbers tell the story inside the Octagon.
UFC Vegas 120 is back at the APEX and the data is as thin as it's been all season — but that doesn't mean there's nothing to work with. Rob breaks down a couple fights on the card. The model processes it all, finds a real edge, and Rob explains exactly why he's taking a bet despite the data limitations. Plus — one more pack rip before next week's card finally gives us something to work with. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com . Chapters 00:00 Intro and episode overview 01:16 Recent model success and UFC Vegas 120 context 02:17 Data limitations for this week's fights 03:46 Upcoming UFC event details and card preview 04:41 Personal updates and social media shoutouts 05:14 Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo fight analysis 09:25 Main event preview: Gamrot vs Salkilld 15:45 Fight prediction and betting decision 16:38 Pack opening and UFC card pull Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
The UFC heads to Belgrade this week and the main event comes with a storyline the model simply can't account for. Rob breaks down what that means for the fight, how the numbers line up against a knockout machine on a three-fight TKO streak, and pack rip number three — hopefully the last one before the fight cards get fuller again. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com. Chapters 00:00 Intro and UFC Belgrade overview 01:09 Model's recent success and upcoming fights 02:35 Personal vacation and fighter background context 03:25 Mateusz Rebecki vs Kyle Prepolec analysis 06:10 Betting odds and prop insights for Rebecki vs Prepolec 08:22 Daniel Rodriguez's prison stint and fight implications 09:59 Uros Medic's recent KO streak and fight style 11:07 Striking and ground game comparison 12:38 Model's prediction and betting considerations 14:23 UFC Belgrade fight card recap and card rip 17:20 Closing remarks and website promotion Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
The UFC is in Abu Dhabi this week and Rob is back with another lean card, another early morning start, and another pack rip. Two fights make the cut for the model this week — an undefeated prospect with a suffocating grappling game looking to stay perfect, and a former light heavyweight champion returning in a last-minute main event against a hungry replacement opponent. Short card, safe plays, and whatever comes out of the pack. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to UFC Abu Dhabi and Episode Overview 00:56 Recap of Last Week's Model Performance and MMA Betting Reality 02:23 Current UFC Betting Climate and Card Preview 03:37 Introduction to Pack Rip Tradition and Social Media Presence 05:57 Fighter Profile: Nurullo Aliev vs Mike Davis 09:14 Main Event Breakdown: Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov 19:05 Betting Predictions and Line Movements for Main Event 21:17 Pack Rip Card Opening and Collectible Highlights 24:24 Closing Remarks and How to Follow for More Content Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
The UFC heads to Oklahoma City for a shorter card this week, and Rob starts by addressing the elephant in the room — Conor McGregor's knee gave out in the first round, BSD dropped a fight he didn't see coming, and somehow we move forward. On a data-thin slate, the model still finds two fights worth talking about: a co-main event where the Tier 1 favorite's price sends us straight to the prop market, and a main event where a former welterweight champion steps into a new division as a big underdog with a very clear blueprint for winning. Plus — something new this week. Rob rips open a UFC trading card pack live on air. No script. Just vibes and whatever comes out of the pack. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com . Chapters 00:00 Intro and UFC Oklahoma City overview 01:28 Recap of recent UFC fight results and lessons learned 02:24 Discussion on Conor McGregor's return and fan disappointment 05:08 Preview of UFC Oklahoma City main card and data limitations 06:10 Open UFC trading cards live on air 07:20 Analysis of Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan 13:05 Preview of UFC main event: Duplessis vs Uzman 19:34 Live UFC card rip and closing thoughts 23:02 Final betting thoughts and episode wrap-up Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
The Mac is back. Five years removed from his last fight and six years since his last win, Conor McGregor steps back into the octagon at welterweight for a rematch against Max Holloway that nobody saw coming when they first met back in 2013. Rob breaks down the UFC 329 card through the model. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com . Chapters 00:00 Welcome Back Mac 02:04 Analyzing Women's Flyweight Fight: Cortez vs. Wang 05:15 Robert Whitaker's Move to Light Heavyweight 09:40 Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett: A Lightweight Clash 13:46 The Return of Conor McGregor: Holloway Rematch 20:24 Final Thoughts and Betting Insights Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
The UFC heads to Baku, Azerbaijan this week as Rafael Fiziev looks to make a statement in front of his home crowd against a red-hot Manuel Torres — a fighter who has barely seen a second round in his entire MMA career. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com . Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Recent Performance Review 02:03 Upcoming UFC Event in Baku, Azerbaijan 03:13 Fight Breakdown: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson 07:43 Fight Breakdown: Rafael Faziv vs. Manuel Torres 14:04 Conclusion and Future Outlook Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Back at the APEX after one of the wildest events in UFC history. Rob recaps the White House card and gets into UFC Vegas 119 — a shorter card headlined by a legitimate flyweight title eliminator between Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com . Chapters 00:00 Here We Go 05:02 Analyzing Upcoming Fights at UFC Vegas 119 14:32 Main Event Breakdown: Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
The UFC takes it outside — literally — as the promotion sets up on the lawn of the White House for a card with two title fights and genuine history on the line. Rob breaks down fights through the model, including a heavyweight title fight where the model says one thing and the heart says another, and a lightweight main event where the undefeated El Matador looks to add another legend to his list. The outdoor environment, the crowd, the weather — this one comes with unknowns that no model can fully account for. That's what makes it must-watch television. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com . 00:00 Introduction and Event Recap 02:02 UFC Freedom 250 Overview 04:37 Weather and Environmental Factors 06:24 Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia Breakdown 11:16 Alex Pereira's Historic Title Shot 16:32 Main Event: Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje Analysis 23:35 Closing Thoughts and Final Predictions Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
UFC Vegas 118 lands at the APEX this week with a former welterweight champion looking to stop the bleeding against a rising contender riding serious momentum. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com . Chapters 00:00 Introduction to UFC Vegas 118 Preview 02:53 Analyzing the Undercard Fights 06:42 Co-Main Event Breakdown: Allen vs. Shahbazyan 09:32 Main Event Discussion: Muhammad vs. Bonfim 14:48 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
The UFC is back from a week off and so is Fighting With Numbers. This week the promotion heads to Macau for an early morning card — 4AM Eastern for those of us stateside. Rob breaks down two fights through the model, including a light heavyweight matchup where the numbers are lopsided enough to hunt props over the moneyline, and a main event featuring a former two-time flyweight champion whose decline is written all over the data. Short pod, clear model sides, and a prop market worth paying attention to before fight night. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com . Chapters 00:00 Fighting with Numbers Returns 01:46 UFC Macau Preview: Co-Main Event Breakdown 05:41 Main Event Analysis: Song vs Figgy 09:28 Conclusion Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
UFC Vegas 117 brings a lean APEX card to close out the stretch before the UFC takes a week off — and Fighting With Numbers marks one year of the podcast. Rob breaks down three fights through the model. Plus — Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano is happening this weekend and yes, we're going to talk about it. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com . 00:00 Celebrating One Year of Fighting With Numbers 01:24 UFC Vegas 117 Preview: Key Fights and Predictions 05:57 Analyzing Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana 10:20 Do Ho Choi's Comeback and Matchup with Daniel Santos 13:35 Main Event Breakdown: Arnold Allen vs. Melky Costa 16:54 Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano: A Nostalgic Showdown 22:00 Wrap-Up and Future Insights Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
UFC 328 is headlined by a middleweight title fight with some genuine bad blood behind it — Khamzat Chimaev defends his belt against Sean Strickland, who gets his third shot at middleweight gold. Rob breaks down four fights on the card through the model. Plus a full performance update on the season — where the tiers stand, where the betting record sits, and an honest look at the regression that's arrived over the last few weeks. The process holds. Let's get into it. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo , get full written breakdowns and model reports along with a full season dashboard at FightingWithNumbers.com . Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Performance Overview 04:23 Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki 08:40 King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens 11:33 Fight Previews: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta 15:32 Main Event Preview: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
The UFC heads to Perth, Australia this week for a card that has most of us in the States setting a 1AM alarm. Rob breaks down three fights through the model — including a main event featuring a former welterweight champion looking to remind everyone who he is, a veteran grappler on a skid facing a tough road back, and a flyweight matchup where the model finds something the odds aren't reflecting. Plus — big news this week. FightingWithNumbers.com is officially live. The full site is up and running with model data, breakdowns, and more. Go check it out. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and get full written breakdowns every week at FightNumbers.Substack.com . Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Milestones 00:22 Reviewing Last Week's Predictions 01:52 UFC Perth Preview and Fight Breakdown 08:21 Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg Analysis 12:58 Main Event: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates 17:39 Final Thoughts and Betting Strategies Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
UFC Vegas 116 is headlined by former bantamweight champion, Aljamain Sterling, set to face one of the hottest fighters in the featherweight division right now in Youssef Zalal. Rob breaks down a few fights on the card through the model — including a co-main where the edge is clear but the price may not be. Sometimes the most disciplined move is knowing when not to bet, and this week the model is making that case loud and clear. Plus a big update on the Fighting With Numbers web app. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and get full model data and written breakdowns every week at FightNumbers.Substack.com . Chapters 00:00 Introduction to UFC Betting and Model Performance 02:04 UFC Vegas 116 Preview and Key Fights 04:33 Analyzing Norma Dumont vs. Joselyne Edwards 08:29 Main Event Breakdown: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal 09:42 Model Predictions and Betting Strategy 13:46 Web App Announcement and Closing Thoughts Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
UFC heads to Winnipeg this week for a lean card — but before diving into the fights, Rob pulls back the curtain on how the Fighting With Numbers model actually works. What is xR%? How do the tiers work? What makes something a Live Dog versus a stay-away? All of that gets answered before breaking down the fights on the card, including a main event where the model agrees with the direction but maybe not the price. Short card, one strong play, and a model explainer worth tuning in for whether you're a first-time listener or a longtime follower. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and get full model data and written breakdowns every week at FightNumbers.Substack.com . Chapters 00:00 Introduction to UFC Winnipeg Preview 02:15 Understanding the Model Behind the Predictions 04:46 Analyzing Fighter Metrics and Performance 07:29 Exploring the Tier System for Betting 16:41 Kyler Phillips vs Charles Jourdain 20:47 Evaluating the Main Event: Burns vs. Malott 24:40 Final Thoughts and Betting Strategies Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Rob Moreno provides an in-depth analysis of UFC 327, including fight predictions, betting insights, and fighter breakdowns. He shares his modeling process, key fight data, and betting strategies for this weeks event. Follow Rob on all social media platforms @TheRobbeo Substack: FightNumbers.Substack.com Interested in the Web App version of Fighting With Numbers? Feel free to drop me a line and I'd be happy to share! Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Overview of UFC 327 02:34 Gastelum vs Luque 06:34 Tatiana Suarez vs. Lupita Godinez Breakdown 10:59 Cub Swanson's Farewell Fight 14:23 Main Event: Jiri Prochazka vs Carlos Ulberg 19:29 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Rob Moreno discusses the UFC Seattle recap, the controversy around judging, and provides a preview of UFC Vegas 115. He analyzes three upcoming fights, highlighting key statistics and betting insights. Follow Rob on X: @TheRobbeo And hit the substack! Fight Numbers Substack First Strike on YT Fighting With Numbers on YT Chapters 00:00 UFC Seattle Recap and Judging Controversy 12:28 Fight Analysis: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabitha Ricci 20:28 Fight Analysis: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
The UFC heads to Seattle this week and the main event has legacy written all over it. Israel Adesanya — former champion, three-fight losing streak — steps in against a hungry Joe Pyfer who smells an opportunity. Rob breaks down four fights through the model, including a co-main event rematch five years in the making between Alexa Grasso and Maycee Barber, a stay-away spot that the model loves but the bankroll won't touch, and a line movement story that flips one fight completely on its head. The numbers don't lie — and this week they're pointing at some underdogs. Let's get into it. Chapters 00:00 Introduction and UFC London Recap 01:58 UFC Seattle Preview: Casey O'Neill vs. Gabriela Fernandes 06:02 Main Card Breakdown: Terrance McKinney vs. Kyle Nelson 10:08 Co-Main Event: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber 14:36 Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer 20:09 Conclusion and Future Insights Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
The UFC heads to London this week for a card headlined by one of the most unique matchups of the year — undefeated vs undefeated as Movsar Evloev and Lerone Murphy collide for what could be a number one contender spot at featherweight. Rob breaks down the model numbers on a few key fights, including a puzzle in Michael Page vs Sam Patterson and a main card opener where the value is hiding in the method, not the moneyline. Plus, is there an app in our future? Find the edges. Protect the bankroll. Let's get into it. Follow Rob on across all social platforms including Twitter/X at one handle: @TheRobbeo Write-ups available at FightNumbers.substack.com And subscribe on YouTube: TheRobbeo Chapters 00:00 Introduction to UFC London and Predictions 02:01 Fight Breakdown: Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan 07:23 Analyzing Michael Venom Page vs. Sam Patterson 12:43 Main Event Preview: Movzar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy 17:50 Final Thoughts and A Small Announcement Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
The model is back this week with three confident plays heading into UFC Vegas 114. Rob breaks down the numbers on four fights — a rematch with a clear blueprint, two aging middleweights swinging for the fences, a sneaky-good co-main that deserves more attention, and a main event where the data says one thing and the odds say something else entirely. Official model bets: Piera Rodriguez, Eryk Anders (live dog), and Gillian Robertson. Plus, why laying -590 on anyone is almost always a mistake — and where the actual value lives in the Emmett/Vallejos main event if you're looking for action. Model sits at 22-10 on the year. The process holds. Let's find the edges. Follow Rob on all social medias: @TheRobbeo And check out the written breakdowns over at fightnumbers.substack.com Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Overview of UFC 326 02:11 Analyzing the Rematch: Piera Rodriguez vs. Sam Hughes 05:23 Veteran Clash: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders 08:37 Co-Main Event Breakdown: Amanda Lemos vs. Jillian Robertson 11:53 Main Event Analysis: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
