Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

A $1.2 trillion Nasdaq plunge looks like a crash, but we break down why it is a targeted AI trade sell-off with money rotating into defensive sectors. We also explain what hedge funds are doing, why junk-rated AI project debt matters, and how to think about protecting your portfolio when the S&P 500 starts moving with a handful of AI names. • the real meaning of AI derating and why valuations reset • Tesla CapEx cuts, Meta credit risk signals, and weak guidance as catalysts • how hedge funds short stocks and why positioning hits five-year extremes • what a short squeeze is and why snapbacks punish panic sellers • why equal-weight S&P 500 strength points to sector rotation • where the money goes: staples, utilities, healthcare, financials • how project finance and junk bonds fund AI data centers • why rising correlation can turn an AI problem into an index problem • a high-probability options example on silver with clear risk warnings Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

Gold drops more than 3% in a day, yet central banks and top Wall Street research desks keep leaning into gold. We break down the short-term forces hitting the price, the long-term reasons demand is surging, and the practical ways to own gold without getting trapped by fees or bad storage. • central banks buying gold at roughly five times the old monthly pace • how Goldman Sachs estimates hidden buying with real-time trade data • why Bank of America frames the trade as long gold and anything but the dollar • the real reason the price falls when oil rises and the Fed is expected to hike • how rising US debt service and bond yields change the investing landscape • crowding out from private borrowing and why hard assets get attention • financial repression as a stealth way to shrink debt through inflation • separating the short-term rate story from the long-term reserve story • setting a plan: decide how much before when and define your calm level • how to buy gold via physical, allocated vaulting, or gold-backed funds • premiums, dealer red flags, and why allocated beats unallocated Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

A currency reset can quietly rewrite the value of your savings while you are still playing by the old rules. We lay out a calm plan built around what holds value outside fragile promises, plus the simple tests we use to spot businesses that can survive inflation and tightening money. • Defining a currency reset in plain terms and why it can feel quieter than a crash • Explaining how savings and pensions become claims inside the system that can be written down • Showing why the careful saver can be more exposed than the gambler • Breaking down three asset classes that tend to hold value when old money gets devalued • Physical gold as hard money plus the key risk of paper gold claims • Property as shelter and utility plus the downside of being easy to tax and impossible to move • Why productive and self-sufficient property is more resilient than fragile “address value” • The mortgage twist where fixed debt can shrink in real terms if payments stay affordable • Why stocks are not one single thing and how pricing power can preserve real value • Three stock filters we use: pricing power, something hard to copy, and manageable debt • Why diversification matters and why going all-in on one hedge can backfire Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

We break down why CoreWeave, a little-known AI “NeoCloud” lender-dependent business, may be the first crack in the AI plumbing that index funds rely on. We connect insider selling, distressed debt pricing, and credit default swap signals to a bigger question: whether AI is facing a borrowed-money reset similar to the dot-com era. • CoreWeave’s business model of buying NVIDIA chips and renting AI compute by the hour • Founder share sales and why Form 4 insider filings matter for ordinary investors • How bond prices, yields, and credit default swaps can warn before stocks react • The dot-com “plumbing” lesson from Cisco, Amazon, and the Nasdaq drawdown timeline • Why a reset can shift money toward owners of scarce compute and away from heavy borrowers • Goldman Sachs’ key warning about too much capital chasing too little power-ready compute • What we watch next: Nasdaq technical levels, debt insurance costs, earnings delivery, insider alerts Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

AI lending has become a case study in how Wall Street's fee machine operates. In this episode, Felix Nikolas Prehn, a former investment banker, traces the mechanics of a five billion dollar loan arranged by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan for AI chip company Volta Infrastructure. The banks collected fees but declined to hold most of the loan, placing 3.7 billion dollars on a best efforts basis for sale to pension funds and insurers. The loan carries an 11 per cent interest rate, well above the junk bond average of 8 per cent. Meanwhile Oracle's data centre debt is trading below face value, with bankruptcy insurance costs at levels not seen since 2009. Prehn notes that Goldman's own trading desk advised institutional clients to derisk from AI exposure in the same week its research analysts issued buy recommendations, illustrating how different parts of one institution serve different purposes within the transaction machine. In this episode: 00:00 Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan refused to hold their own AI chip loan 03:03 How the bank fee machine works in plain terms 05:06 Risk transfer from banks to pension funds and insurers 09:40 Bank price targets on Meta, Micron and Nvidia 11:12 Price targets feed the transaction and fee cycle 12:44 Goldman traders tell institutional clients to derisk from AI 13:48 Volta Infrastructure loan structure and best efforts clause 15:48 Eleven per cent interest rate signals elevated risk Sources mentioned: Goldman Sachs, https://www.goldmansachs.com JP Morgan, https://www.jpmorgan.com Morgan Stanley, https://www.morganstanley.com BNP Paribas, https://www.bnpparibas.com Truist, https://www.truist.com Cantor Fitzgerald, https://www.cantor.com Oracle, https://www.oracle.com Volta Infrastructure Bitdeer, https://www.bitdeer.com Anthropic, https://www.anthropic.com Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

We break down a $5 billion AI chip loan that major banks arranged, took fees on, and then mostly refused to hold, because the real story is risk transfer, not technology. We show how bullish AI research, quiet de-risking by trading desks, and “best efforts” loan language can point to the same machine pushing exposure toward pensions and insurers. • banks earning upfront fees while offloading loan risk to institutional buyers • why “best efforts” changes who holds the bag when demand dries up • how price targets and bullish research keep the transaction machine running • a direct contrast between research saying buy and traders saying de-risk • what an 11% loan rate signals about AI infrastructure credit risk • Nvidia’s unusual position as both chip seller and investor in the borrower • Oracle data center debt stress as a broader sign of tightening AI financing • how AI data centers link to energy demand, grid buildouts, and oil pricing • the practical skill gap: learning financial vocabulary to read headlines differently Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

Silver priced against the S&P 500 is sitting near its lowest reading in half a century, a level that has preceded every major multi-year silver rally of the past fifty years. In this episode Felix Nikolas Prehn traces two rule changes driving the shift. First, Basel 3 net stable funding requirements now force banks to hold 85 per cent cash backing against unallocated paper silver, pushing them towards physical metal and raising costs on what was once a profit centre. Second, China replaced its 25 year old silver export regime at the start of this year with tight licensing, restricting outflows from refiners that handle an estimated 60 to 70 per cent of global refined silver exports. Meanwhile COMEX registered inventories have fallen from 114 million ounces to roughly 76 million, the world has run a silver supply deficit for six consecutive years, and the solar industry alone consumes about 20 per cent of annual mine output. Felix outlines a three signal framework and stresses that silver remains highly volatile. In this episode: 00:00 Silver to S&P 500 ratio near a 50 year low 03:00 How the ratio chart has preceded past silver rallies 07:00 Basel 3 and the 85 per cent unallocated silver funding rule 10:52 China tightens silver export licensing after 25 years 14:11 Chinese silver imports surge and solar demand at 20 per cent of supply 16:36 COMEX vault drawdowns and paper leverage at 7.6 to 1 19:00 Three signal framework for silver and stocks 22:47 Volatility warning and risk management guidance Sources mentioned: Bank for International Settlements (Basel 3), https://www.bis.org Silver Institute (World Silver Survey), https://www.silverinstitute.org COMEX (CME Group), https://www.cmegroup.com Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com Brinks, https://www.brinks.com Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

The petrodollar system built in 1974 tied Saudi oil sales to the dollar and recycled the proceeds into American assets. Felix Nikolas Prehn explains how the recent missile strike on Riyadh's main airport has accelerated a quiet shift in Saudi Arabia's security and financial alignments. With defence pacts now signed with Turkey and Pakistan, and calls going to Paris and Islamabad rather than Washington, the episode examines whether the other side of the original bargain still holds. It covers Saudi Arabia's sale of roughly 11 billion dollars in US treasuries in a single month, the fixed riyal peg maintained since 1986, the mBridge payment system that bypasses the dollar, and central banks continuing to buy gold through its worst quarter since 2013. Prehn argues the key signal to watch is Saudi Arabia's official gold reserves, a number that has barely moved for years but may soon start climbing. In this episode: 00:00 Missile strike on Riyadh airport and US response 00:57 Origins of the 1974 petrodollar arrangement 04:07 The Saudi riyal peg and foreign reserves 06:30 Saudi treasury sales and shifting alliances 07:48 Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea and shipping costs 09:07 mBridge and alternatives to dollar settlement 10:18 Central banks buying gold into a downturn 10:59 Portfolio checks for oil shock exposure Sources mentioned: The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com Saudi Central Bank (SAMA), https://www.sama.gov.sa mBridge (BIS project), https://www.bis.org Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

I break down the growing signs that the US Treasury is leaning on the bond market while long-term yields keep rising anyway. Then I connect that bond math to real life: mortgage rates, inflation pressure tied to AI spending, and how concentrated the stock market has become. • how Treasury yields act as the price of money for mortgages, loans, and pensions • why foreign demand is fading and why the Fed is no longer the default buyer • what Treasury buybacks signal and why shifting to short-term bills changes the risk • Morgan Stanley’s R versus G framework and what happens when interest costs outrun growth • how AI investment can push inflation higher through chips, hardware, and software pricing • why AI-driven stock market concentration looks like a classic bubble setup • three practical moves: map what you own, check companies for debt risk, stop assuming long bonds are safe Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

Japan's 30-year government bond yield hit a record 4.18 per cent, a event Felix Nikolas Prehn argues is a dress rehearsal for what awaits the United States and other heavily indebted economies. The episode traces the so-called widow maker trade, which bet against Japanese bonds for three decades and has now finally paid off, wiping more than 200 billion dollars from Japanese equities in a single session. Prehn draws parallels between today's AI-driven speculation and the NASDAQ bubble of 2000, noting that global yields have reached levels not seen since 2007 or earlier. He examines how the dollar has lost roughly 88 per cent of its purchasing power since 1971 and warns that the paper gold market carries far more claims than physical metal in vaults. Many gold funds, he notes, hold no actual bars, leaving holders with promises rather than protection. In this episode: 00:00 Japan's 30-year bond yield hits an all-time high of 4.18 per cent 01:00 The widow maker trade finally pays off after three decades 05:02 How the Bank of Japan suppressed rates by buying its own debt 06:02 The yen weakens as the price of sustained money printing 07:02 AI capital spending collides with rising global interest rates 08:04 Parallels between today's valuations and the NASDAQ 2000 crash 10:05 US 30-year yields touch 5.3 per cent amid a global bond sell-off 12:09 The dollar has lost 88 per cent of purchasing power since 1971 Sources mentioned: Financial Times (global bond sell-off reporting), https://www.ft.com Warren Buffett (referenced via associate remarks on internet bubble) Kevin Warsh (Federal Reserve) Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

A monetary reset is already under way, according to Felix Nikolas Prehn, a former investment banker who traces four concurrent developments back to a single cause. European central banks are shipping gold home from New York vaults for the first time in decades. Norway's sovereign wealth fund has proposed cutting roughly 80 billion dollars of US treasury holdings. Twenty one of the world's largest banks, including Goldman Sachs, Citi and Bank of America, have announced a joint US dollar stablecoin set to launch in 2027. Meanwhile the US president has publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to cut rates ahead of its September meeting. Prehn argues these moves all reflect eroding trust in the existing dollar system and draws a parallel with the Netherlands' gold conversion request in 1971, which preceded the end of dollar gold convertibility. He concludes that holding diversified hard assets and businesses with pricing power is a more prudent stance than remaining fully concentrated in a top heavy index. In this episode: 00:00 The September Fed deadline and presidential pressure on rate cuts 01:02 Gold physically leaving American vaults for Europe 05:09 S&P 500 concentration in ten stocks driving 72 per cent of gains 07:41 Gold as a trust barometer for the dollar system 09:11 The 1971 Dutch gold request and the Nixon shock parallel 12:14 Norway's sovereign wealth fund trimming US treasuries 13:45 Japan's market wobble as the first crack in the system 14:47 Twenty one banks building a digital dollar stablecoin for 2027 Sources mentioned: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, https://www.newyorkfed.org Norges Bank Investment Management (Norway sovereign wealth fund), https://www.nbim.no Jan Nieuwenhuijs (gold analyst) GENIUS Act (US stablecoin legislation) Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett), https://www.berkshirehathaway.com Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

The US Treasury's decision to double its debt buyback programme and run it through to early November is the focus of this episode. Felix Nikolas Prehn, a former investment banker, traces how the government is creating new money to purchase its own long-dated bonds at the same time as Japan, historically the most loyal foreign holder of American debt, sold roughly 88 billion dollars of US bonds in a single month. He sets out how real world inflation since 2020 has, in his view, exceeded 100 per cent, and notes that the dollar has lost roughly 93 per cent of its value since 1971 on official figures alone. He examines the additional pressure of an estimated one trillion dollars in corporate borrowing for AI data centres, the physical movement of gold out of US vaults at record levels, and the concentration of S&P 500 gains in just ten names. He concludes that holding assets with real pricing power matters more than ever when the money supply is expanding this fast. In this episode: 00:00 Treasury doubles its debt buyback programme through to November 01:00 Physical gold leaving US vaults at record export levels 01:33 Japan sells 88 billion dollars of American debt in one month 04:05 Real inflation since 2020 estimated at well over 100 per cent 05:36 How the buyback mechanism works and who pays for it 06:36 Fed rate expectations diverge from government loosening 13:46 AI buildout adds roughly one trillion dollars in new corporate debt 17:19 Pattern matches the 1971 closing of the gold window Sources mentioned: US Treasury refunding statement, https://home.treasury.gov Japanese investor holdings of US debt (Ministry of Finance Japan), https://www.mof.go.jp/english/ US Bureau of Labour Statistics (dollar purchasing power), https://www.bls.gov Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

A missile strike in Saudi Arabia kicks off a chain reaction that can end in higher inflation and a weaker dollar, even if you never follow foreign policy. We connect the 1974 petrodollar deal, the Saudi riyal peg, central bank gold buying, and what to check in your own holdings before the market reprices risk. • the missile strike as a currency and portfolio story • why oil spikes hit gas, groceries, heating, then investments • the 1974 oil for dollars arrangement and why it supports the US dollar • how the Saudi riyal peg forces Saudi rates to shadow the Fed • what it means when Saudi trims US Treasuries • the physical risk in shipping routes and refinery targets • the financial side door of non dollar settlement systems like mBridge • why central bank gold buying matters even when gold prices fall • a simple at home checklist to map holdings and stress test for inflation Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

We break down why America’s jump in borrowing costs signals a credit reset that can ripple through mortgages, pensions, and stock valuations long before mainstream headlines change. We connect cracked corporate bond charts in AI-linked giants to broad market weakness, then map out why silver and long-term bonds could become opportunity zones if the Fed is forced to respond. • defining the credit reset in plain English and why yields reprice everything • showing how higher Treasury yields collide with $40T in government debt • walking through the three policy doors and why inflationary money printing is tempting • reading bond market stress in Oracle, SpaceX, Meta-linked financing, and Paramount • explaining concentration risk as AI becomes a huge share of index performance • unpacking the $1.6B silver outflow and how trend funds plus leverage create forced selling • outlining why metals can benefit when the Fed expands liquidity, with clear risks if it does not • making the contrarian case for long-term bonds and how duration cuts both ways • emphasizing process over predictions, plus position sizing and downside control Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

The Federal Reserve is losing its grip on long term interest rates, according to senior Goldman Sachs traders who describe the central bank as more passenger than driver. Felix Nikolas Prehn walks through the mechanism: technology companies building AI infrastructure are on track to issue more debt than the US government next year, with borrowing approaching 1.3 trillion dollars. That wave is absorbing global savings, pushing bond yields higher and creating inflation before any productivity gains arrive. Meanwhile, central banks have doubled annual gold purchases to over 1,000 tonnes, absorbing roughly a third of new mine supply and thinning the market available to other buyers. Goldman's metals desk calls the recent gold pullback an elongated pause rather than a top, viewing 4,000 dollars an ounce as a floor. Silver offers larger potential moves in both directions owing to its far thinner investment market. The episode concludes that inaction carries its own considerable risk. In this episode: 00:00 Goldman traders say the Fed is now a passenger 01:33 Gold desk calls the dip an elongated pause 04:38 AI borrowing set to dwarf US government debt 06:10 The global savings glut era is declared over 08:41 AI spending is inflationary before productivity arrives 09:42 Government bond buybacks called a firecracker in a hurricane 16:48 Central banks doubled gold purchases to over 1000 tonnes 20:24 Silver offers bigger upside but violent drops Sources mentioned: Goldman Sachs cross-asset trading desk, https://www.goldmansachs.com Tony Kim, Goldman Sachs global metals trading Mark Wilson, Goldman Sachs equity franchise sales Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

Gold pulled back roughly 20 per cent from its highs, yet central banks bought a record amount in a single quarter, spending some 40 billion dollars on the metal. Felix Nikolas Prehn connects this buying spree to a broader pattern: Bank of America data showing productivity and consumer confidence falling together for the first time since 2008, despite 1.5 trillion dollars already spent on AI. He examines the concentration risk inside the S and P 500, where 70 per cent of this year's gains came from just ten AI related stocks. He outlines the BRICS backed Unit settlement system, designed to bypass SWIFT and underpinned by 40 per cent gold, potentially launching later this year. Drawing parallels with the 1940s, when the Federal Reserve pinned rates to absorb government debt and inflation halved the purchasing power of savings in six years, he argues the same debt playbook is repeating now with US debt again above 120 per cent of GDP. In this episode: 00:00 Productivity and consumer confidence fall together for the first time since 2008 03:32 1.5 trillion dollars spent on AI with no measurable productivity gain 05:05 Altman, Amodei and Musk call to slow AI development 06:06 Ten stocks account for 70 per cent of S and P 500 returns this year 11:12 Central banks bought a record amount of gold in a single quarter 13:14 The Unit settlement system backed by 40 per cent gold explained 14:46 Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan gold price targets up to 6000 dollars 17:23 The 1940s debt playbook and how it quietly eroded savings Sources mentioned: Bank of America (Michael Hartnett research) Goldman Sachs, https://www.goldmansachs.com JP Morgan, https://www.jpmorgan.com ING, https://www.ing.com Financial Times, https://www.ft.com Kitco, https://www.kitco.com OpenAI (Sam Altman), https://www.openai.com Anthropic (Dario Amodei), https://www.anthropic.com Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

Sulphuric acid may be an obscure commodity, but its sudden disappearance from global markets matters. Felix Nikolas Prehn explains how Russia's export ban, following China's earlier cut, removes the two largest suppliers of a chemical essential to fertiliser production. The remaining supply depends on Middle Eastern sulphur shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, the same chokepoint carrying a fifth of the world's oil. With crude above one hundred dollars a barrel and Chevron's chief executive stating that price buffers are exhausted, Prehn argues that energy and food inflation will arrive together. He then examines how Washington's sanctions programme is pushing foreign holders away from the dollar, why hedge funds sitting on 2.2 trillion dollars of leveraged treasury positions pose a systemic risk, and why central banks have bought 22 billion dollars of gold in three weeks. He concludes that the Federal Reserve is trapped between defending the bond market and defending the currency, and that the likely outcome is further money printing. In this episode: 00:00 Russia bans sulphuric acid exports, following China's earlier cut 01:02 Half the world's sulphur transits the Strait of Hormuz 02:02 Oil above one hundred dollars and rising 03:05 Fertiliser shortage threatens food prices 04:05 Chevron CEO says price buffers are exhausted 06:40 Dollar weaponised through sanctions on Iran 10:43 Hedge funds hold 2.2 trillion dollars in leveraged treasury trades 17:53 Fed trapped between bond market and dollar stability Sources mentioned: Chevron (CEO remarks on fuel crisis), https://www.chevron.com US Treasury (Operation Economic Outcast sanctions), https://home.treasury.gov Federal Reserve, https://www.federalreserve.gov Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

Gold and its role during supply side inflation form the core of this episode. Felix Nikolas Prehn, an economist and former investment banker, traces the parallels between the current environment and the 1970s oil shock, when gold rose from roughly 100 dollars to 850 dollars. He argues that raising interest rates does not address inflation driven by energy input costs and instead punishes borrowers while leaving the underlying price pressure intact. The episode examines how 8 trillion dollars of US government debt must be refinanced at higher rates, why the debt to GDP ratio now matches post war levels, and how that constrains the authorities from holding rates high long enough to suppress inflation. Central banks are responding by buying gold at the fastest pace since the late 1990s. Prehn concludes that inflation is likely to run hotter than official figures suggest, eroding the purchasing power of cash and concentrated equity portfolios alike. In this episode: 00:00 Fed raises rates into an oil shock 01:02 Farming input costs and diesel prices surge 03:34 Supply side versus demand side inflation explained 08:08 Energy costs multiply through the economy 09:39 Dollar purchasing power decline since 2000 12:43 Government debt refinancing at higher rates 14:17 Volcker era compared with current debt levels 19:55 Central bank gold buying at fastest pace in decades Sources mentioned: Financial Times, https://www.ft.com US Federal Reserve, https://www.federalreserve.gov John Boyd Jr. (American farmer) Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

The US strategic petroleum reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1982 after 26 consecutive weeks of withdrawals. Felix Nikolas Prehn, an economist and former investment banker, argues this drawdown is not about supply shortages but about suppressing the oil price to keep inflation figures manageable while the government prepares to print more money. He links the reserve depletion to two other developments: the US Treasury doubling its own debt buybacks to four billion dollars per operation, and the fact that three private companies, SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, are now valued above 45 years of public tech listings combined. Household exposure to equities has reached a record, with five stocks making up 30 per cent of the S&P 500. Prehn notes that central banks are buying gold at the fastest pace since 1997 and that informed sellers are rotating out of technology names into cash generating businesses. He concludes that the dollar has lost 93 per cent of its purchasing power since 1971 and that the same pattern is being repeated. In this episode: 00:00 US strategic petroleum reserve at a 44 year low 01:02 Three signals appearing at the same time 02:33 Debt trap and why inflation is the only political exit 04:37 Venezuelan oil cannot meet reserve specifications 05:38 Manufactured calm before an inflation spike 08:41 Treasury doubles buybacks of its own debt 11:46 Three private firms worth more than 45 years of IPOs 15:19 Informed money rotates into boring toll booth businesses Sources mentioned: US Strategic Petroleum Reserve data, https://www.energy.gov US Department of the Treasury, https://home.treasury.gov Berkshire Hathaway, https://www.berkshirehathaway.com SpaceX, https://www.spacex.com Anthropic, https://www.anthropic.com OpenAI, https://www.openai.com Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

The dollar reset now under way is not a dramatic redenomination but a slow widening gap between official inflation figures and actual living costs. Felix Nikolas Prehn traces the chain from mortgage rates approaching 8 per cent to the bond market repricing risk at levels last seen before the 2008 crisis. He outlines Bill Ackman's argument that rate rises may be feeding rather than fighting inflation, because AI capital spending and embedded financing costs pass straight through to consumer prices. The episode then examines how the government is changing the PCE calculation method, which one Wall Street strategist estimates could shave half a percentage point off reported inflation without any price in a shop falling. Prehn shows how the Treasury's TGA account is injecting tens of billions into the banking system independently of the Fed, effectively making the Treasury the real central bank. He concludes that the combination of reported lower inflation and quietly looser liquidity amounts to a slow transfer from savers to the government. In this episode: 00:00 Mortgage rates jump toward 8 per cent overnight 01:00 Bill Ackman argues rate rises may feed inflation 05:01 AI spending ignores higher borrowing costs 07:01 The Fed faces two losing doors on rates 10:32 Government changing how PCE inflation is measured 13:05 Prices up 2200 per cent since 1940 14:06 The quiet dollar reset plan explained 15:36 Treasury TGA account becomes the real central bank Sources mentioned: Bill Ackman Tom Lee, Fundstrat US Treasury General Account (TGA), https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov Federal Reserve PCE inflation measure, https://www.bea.gov New York Fed conference on overnight lending, https://www.newyorkfed.org Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks