At the Water's Edge

The Pentagon just fired its top strategist in the middle of a war with Iran, and no replacement has been named. What could go wrong?Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has removed Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, the Joint Staff's Director for Strategy, Plans and Policy (the J5). He is the second officer pushed out of that job since the administration returned. Within a day, the Pentagon's explanation went from a cordial send-off to accusations of leaking classified information and failed polygraphs, none of it publicly substantiated.Scott breaks down who Sylvia is, what the J5 actually does, and why the office responsible for stress-testing war plans and delivering bad news is so exposed right now. He also covers his predecessor's early exit, the Laura Loomer subplot, what this means for careers and candor inside the Pentagon, and how Tehran is likely reading the turmoil as the U.S. weighs renewed strikes.At the Water's Edge looks for insights beyond the headlines, with a practitioner's view on national security and geopolitics.Chapters:00:00 Intro00:20 Breaking: Pentagon's top planner fired01:00 Who is Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia?02:10 Hegseth's flag officer purge02:40 S, G & J shops: how military staffs work04:20 What the J5 actually does05:35 Why was he fired? The shifting story08:05 The Laura Loomer subplot08:45 His predecessor: Lt. Gen. JP McGee09:40 Why the J5 job gets people fired12:00 DIME and the interagency13:10 An insecure Pentagon and easy answers14:10 What this does to careers inside the building17:50 Eroding institutional brakes18:35 How Iran sees it20:30 Final thoughtsIf you found this useful, follow the show and share it with someone tracking the Iran war.

Is there a way to end the war with Iran that doesn't totally suck? And where's the line between an online grifter and a foreign state running influence operations against American elections?A week out from the midterms, OSINT analyst and YouTuber Ryan McBeth joins me to break down how information warfare actually works, and why the U.S. keeps leaving its own information operations capability on the shelf.We get into bot farms used to tank stock prices, the Tenet Media case and Russian money behind American influencers, and the Chinese sponsor Ryan turned down because the contract barred criticism of China. Then we turn to Iran: whether the regime is a rational actor, whether this war makes an Iranian bomb inevitable, Ryan's plan for marching on Tehran (and why I think it breaks down in the mountain passes), and why it's easier to get approval for a drone strike than a leaflet drop.Ryan McBeth is a 20-year infantry veteran, former C4ISR software engineer, Newsmax intelligence consultant, and author of The Win Machine and the Deseret series.Find Ryan:Substack: ryanmcbeth.substack.comYouTube: @RyanMcBethProgrammingChapters:00:00 Cold open00:37 Intro01:09 Cigars, Ranger School & firefighting school07:43 Info ops ahead of the midterms08:14 How bot farms short stocks10:49 The grift economy & "decliners"12:02 Tenet Media and paid influencers16:12 The Chinese sponsor Ryan turned down19:39 The economics of military YouTube21:26 From coding interviews to Ukraine's tank turrets25:09 YouTube, Substack & Newsmax27:54 Veterans, partisanship, and finding a lane32:34 Is Iran a rational actor?37:21 Will Iran get the bomb? Containment & blockade42:06 The McBeth plan vs. the terrain46:04 Why no psyop campaign against Iran?49:43 Easier to drop a bomb than a leaflet52:43 Where to find Ryan

Israel votes on October 27 in its first national election since October 7, 2023, and the final polls show no one with a clear path to power. Gadi Eisenkot's opposition leads, Netanyahu's bloc is holding at 50 seats, and the Arab-majority parties hold the balance, even though most leaders on both sides say they won't govern with them.In this episode, Scott breaks down how Israel's coalition system works, who's running, why Netanyahu is in trouble, and what a new government would and wouldn't change for Gaza, the war with Iran, and the U.S.-Israel relationship. The face at the top may change, but the core policies on Palestinian statehood and Iran likely won't, and that leaves Washington's "Netanyahu is the problem" argument on thin ice.Recorded October 26, 2026, the day before the vote. Poll figures are from the final Kan, Channel 12 and Channel 13 surveys published October 23.CHAPTERS0:00 Intro1:06 Bottom line: nobody has 61 seats2:03 How Israel's election system works3:46 The main players4:41 Final polls & the bloc math6:28 Why Netanyahu is in trouble9:04 The Arab parties: kingmakers?10:55 The catch: nobody will govern with them13:05 What it means for Palestinians14:32 Iran: expect continuity16:15 Washington & the "Netanyahu excuse"18:16 What to watch on election night19:25 Recap & closeSOURCESHaaretz: final election polls (Oct 23, 2026)Al Jazeera: The Israeli politicians seeking to replace Netanyahu (Oct 17, 2026)Moshe Dayan Center: Survey of Arab Citizens in Israel (May 2026)Reuters via Al-Monitor: Israelis oppose Iran ceasefire (Apr 13, 2026)PBS NewsHour: U.S. strikes Iranian oil tankers (Sept 5, 2026)Gaza Health Ministry figures as of Oct 24, 2026UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry: Gaza genocide finding (Sept 2025)

Ships keep getting hit in the Strait of Hormuz, Egypt is weighing whether to send troops to Saudi Arabia, and the IRGC is now threatening to invade neighboring countries if the US strikes again. Professor Robert Pape returns to explain why an Iranian ground invasion would play directly into American strengths, and why Iran’s more dangerous option is fracturing the Gulf states from within. We discuss: The hammer-and-anvil approach to precision warfare, from Bosnia to the Taliban to ISIS Why the alliance that toppled the Taliban couldn’t deliver bin Laden How Iran could use the Gulf’s Shia populations to break its neighbors apart without occupying them How failing Gulf states could hit US Treasury markets and interest rates The diversionary theory of war and the window between Election Day and the January transition Whether French, Greek, and Egyptian deployments make this a world war Why Trump’s promise not to use nuclear weapons isn’t a decision, and why the worst-case analysis given to the President should be declassified The full Q&A with Professor Pape is available the same day to members of The Briefing Room on YouTube. Chapters: 00:00 This week: Hormuz, Egypt, and Iran’s invasion threat 01:39 Why an invasion would be Iran overreaching 11:20 Would Iraqi militias become Iranian territory? 16:21 Mapping the Shia in the Gulf states 19:04 Iran’s real goal: failed Gulf states, not occupation 21:21 Diversionary war and the post-election window 24:03 Is this World War III? 27:42 Trump rules out nukes. Should we believe it? 33:40 Declassify the worst-case analysis

How is the war over the Strait of Hormuz reaching Africa? Ghanaian security and geopolitical analyst Fidel Amakye Owusu returns to explain how the Iran war is driving fuel protests, food insecurity, and the risk of state collapse across the continent. We discuss why removed fuel subsidies make this shock hit Africans twice as hard, how Gen Z protests brought down Madagascar’s government, and why military juntas no longer bother pretending to be democracies in a multipolar world. We also cover Egypt weighing troops for Saudi Arabia, Tim Kennedy’s ambush in the DRC and the scramble for critical minerals, the Houthi–al-Shabaab connection across the Bab el-Mandeb, the succession question in Saudi Arabia, and which African states are closest to collapse. Fidel’s warning: when people can’t afford food, they protest. When there’s no food to buy, they take up arms. Fidel Amakye Owusu is a geopolitical and security advisor and CEO of DefSEC Analytics Africa, focused on terrorism, insurgency, and governance across Africa. Africa Intelligence Report (waitlist): https://the-africa-intelligence-report.ghost.io/join-the-waitlist/Fidel on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fidel-amakye-owusu-8158b6149/ Chapters 00:00 Intro 00:44 How the Iran war hits Africa: fuel prices and lost subsidies 04:28 Elections, coups, and the threat to young democracies 06:26 Gen Z protests and Madagascar’s new junta 07:34 Parallels to the Arab Spring 09:22 Why juntas no longer fake democracy 12:24 Africa as the testing ground for a multipolar world 14:29 Why African states look abroad instead of to each other 17:35 Resource nationalism, Erik Prince, and Tim Kennedy in the DRC 20:29 When non-state actors rival the state 25:59 The Houthis and al-Shabaab: pragmatic extremists 29:28 Egypt, Sisi, and troops for Saudi Arabia 31:02 Will Sisi actually leave power in 2030? 35:35 MBS, Saudi succession, and the UAE rivalry 41:33 Fertilizer, the Red Sea, and famine risk in the Horn of Africa 45:28 Is hunger more dangerous than fuel prices? 47:02 Which African states are closest to collapse? 49:38 Where to find Fidel’s work

Houthi missiles are hitting Riyadh’s main airport, and it’s turning into Saudi Arabia’s worst-case scenario. One strike killed at least 12 people and injured around 300. Flights are cancelled, and the oil executives Saudi Arabia was trying to host have pulled out. This week I trace how we got here, starting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman: his rise to power, the 2017 Ritz-Carlton purge, and his 2015 decision to go to war in Yemen with a military built to protect the monarchy, not to fight. A decade of escalation pushed Iran to arm the Houthis with better and better asymmetric weapons, and that same adaptation is now being used against U.S. forces. Then the bigger question: if the House of Saud can’t keep the kingdom safe, what happens to the deal that has kept it stable? I walk through what’s at stake, from global oil and food supplies to who controls Mecca and Medina. For more on the strategic side of the Iran conflict, go back and listen to the Escalation Trap series with Robert Pape. Want to go one step further? Members of The Briefing Room on YouTube get this week’s companion video, which looks at what most likely comes next if something happens to MBS. https://youtu.be/6E_cTl9em2A

Ten ships hit in the Strait of Hormuz in a single week, the most of the entire war. Houthi missiles shut down Riyadh's airport in the largest set of attacks in Saudi Arabia's modern history. Now France has confirmed it is sending radar and air defense assets to protect Saudi Aramco infrastructure at Yanbu, less than a couple hours' drive from Medina.Professor Robert Pape returns to explain how France's move could carry the war into Europe, and why the escalation trap is now compounded by a dangerous new dynamic: preemption.We cover:- Why foreign troop deployments are the strongest risk factor for suicide terrorism, from 9/11 to Mali- Why the Houthis have never been defeated, and how the fighting could open the door to AQAP- Radar orientation and why Saudi Patriots may have been blind to Houthi missiles- What the leaked three-day air plan has in common with Desert Storm's Instant Thunder- How four actors with incentives to strike first create a spiral that looks a lot like July 1914- MANPADS, drones, and the growing risk to commercial airlinersWant the full Q&A with Professor Pape? Join The Briefing Room on YouTube. Members get the complete Q&A the same day as the interview, plus members-only content every week.00:00 This week's escalation00:39 Professor Pape returns01:28 Ten ships hit in Hormuz, Riyadh airport struck02:28 France moves to defend Aramco at Yanbu05:00 Why this isn't a world war (yet)07:33 Foreign troops and suicide terrorism: Mali and 9/1114:23 MBS and the Saudi-Houthi war15:38 Yanbu, Medina, and the sectarian map18:45 Can French air defense even help?23:13 Everyone's in the escalation trap now24:30 The three-day air plan and Instant Thunder34:08 Preemptive spirals: a four-player game35:46 The illusion of control and the road to World War I38:15 How this becomes a true world war40:09 MANPADS, drones, and airliners42:45 Q&A preview

What happens when a U.S. brigade trains against Ukraine's drone forces? They usually have to reset the exercise within 24 hours. Major General Duane Miller, until recently Deputy Commanding General of Security Assistance Group–Ukraine, explains why America is not ready for the speed of modern war. After more than two years watching Ukraine fight, MG Miller argues that the speed of learning is now a measure of national power. Ukraine pushes new tactics, software updates, and drone fixes to the front in two to three weeks. The U.S. averages over a decade to field a new weapon system. In this episode: - Why Ukraine's edge isn't the drones but the learning loop behind them - What happens when U.S. brigades face Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Force - Why Patriot software updates still move by courier - Why Ukraine has stopped wanting some U.S. munitions - How defense primes and procurement rules slow innovation - What the U.S. military should change before the next first battle Links: MG Miller's article, "The Speed of Learning: The New Measure of National Power": https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/speed-learning-new-measure-national-power-duane-miller-ldake/ Watch the full episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Had-NK89U_I At the Water's Edge is a national security and geopolitics podcast hosted by Scott Kelly, a former Green Beret. The views expressed are those of the guest and do not represent the official position of the U.S. Army or Department of Defense.

Fifty-nine days after it was signed, the Mecca Pact has been activated. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey have agreed to send forces to defend the kingdom against the Houthis. The alliance itself isn’t the real danger. The danger is when it was formed. Scott breaks down how the Houthis pushed Riyadh to call in its new allies: strikes on four Saudi cities, attacks on the East-West pipeline that lets Saudi oil bypass the Strait of Hormuz, threats to Saudi airspace, and a drone the Saudis say was headed for Mecca. He separates what the pact is from what it isn’t, and reads the fine print on domestic approval, “all those responsible,” and Pakistan’s insistence that the pact is purely defensive. Scott also covers what Turkey can actually bring (combat-proven drones, a growing defense industry, and a conscript army that isn’t built for “away games”), why Turkey’s constitution puts treaty approval and troop deployments in separate articles, and why Yemen is nothing like northern Syria. Then Pakistan: nearly six decades of military ties to Saudi Arabia, a three-front squeeze at home, and a delicate role as mediator between Washington and Tehran. Finally, the big picture: with the U.S. tied down in its war with Iran, middle powers are building their own security order. Could alliances formed after a war starts create a 1914-style escalation chain? And why this is about state power politics, not a Sunni religious bloc. What does the Mecca Pact mean for Israel? The members-only companion episode is available now in The Briefing Room, our members-only community on YouTube: [MEMBERSHIP LINK] Follow Scott on Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg

We’re in the most dangerous weeks of the Iran war since March, and the midterms are the reason. Professor Robert Pape returns to explain the wicked incentives pushing President Trump toward escalation before November 3rd, and why every option likely landing on his desk hands Tehran the advantage. Pape walks through the three clocks converging on the midterms. The USS Theodore Roosevelt and a second Marine Expeditionary Unit are closing within striking range of Iran. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has plateaued while Iran strikes more tankers in Hormuz than in any week of the war. And inflation inside Iran, which Pape puts near 100%, is tempting Washington to try to break Iran’s economy with air power. He explains why striking Iran’s refineries could invite a retaliatory strike on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facility that would hurt America more than Iran, and why landing Marines on Larak Island, Hormuz Island, or near Chabahar would hand Iran fixed targets without breaking its kill chain. We also cover the recent Tel Aviv flight incident, the drone threat that moved U.S. B-1 bombers out of an RAF base, and what history says about how long it takes a suicide terrorism campaign to reach the U.S. homeland once ground forces are committed. Want Pape’s take on whether the Mecca Pact pulls Pakistan and Turkey into this war, and whether the overlapping U.S. and Israeli elections double the danger? The rest of the conversation is available in The Briefing Room, our members-only community on YouTube: [MEMBERSHIP LINK] Read Robert Pape’s Substack, The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com Follow Scott on Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg Watch on YouTube: [YOUTUBE LINK] At the Water’s Edge brings you insights beyond the headlines, with a practitioner’s view on national security and geopolitics. Hosted by Scott Kelly, former Green Beret and founder of Grayzone Advisory.

Veterans die by suicide at a rate 72% higher than their civilian peers, and women veterans at a rate 101% higher. Lyndsay Tkach, Wounded Warrior Project's Director of Mental and Brain Health Services, has spent twelve years working on that problem. In the series finale, she explains why she calls suicide "a human issue" rather than only a medical one, and what it would take to reach veterans at scale before a crisis hits. This conversation covers the risk factors that sit outside the therapist's office (financial distress, chronic pain, sleep problems, broken relationships), the difference between risk factors and warning signs, and how WWP screens every warrior who comes in through its financial, physical, and mental health programs. It also takes on a hard question: how do you screen a community that learned to lie on every health survey? Along the way, Lyndsay shares that one in four WWP warriors surveyed reported suicidal thoughts in the past year, why connection may be the most underused intervention, and why families need support too. If you or someone you know is in crisis, call or text 988 (Suicide & Crisis Lifeline), or reach the Veterans Crisis Line at 988, press 1. This is Episode 5, the finale, of Still Here, a five-part series produced in partnership with Wounded Warrior Project for Suicide Prevention Awareness Month. Catch up with Episodes 1–4 (Zach, Lindsey, Sam, and Joe) if you haven't yet. Chapters: 0:00 Cold open: the final chapter of Still Here 0:40 Welcome, and introducing Lyndsay 1:12 How big is veteran suicide? The numbers behind the "22 a day" debate 2:47 "Suicide is a human issue," not just a medical one 4:06 Why veterans are at higher risk: losing structure and purpose in transition 5:56 The gaps in how veterans get help 8:18 Beyond therapy: non-clinical help and the four protective factors 10:32 Risk factors vs. warning signs 12:04 Screening before a crisis happens 13:33 No magic list: how WWP's triage program works 15:48 Who gets screened, and the one-in-four finding 17:06 "We all lied on every health survey": screening when people don't tell the truth 20:08 Does it matter whether a human or a form asks? 21:52 System gaps vs. veterans not asking for help 23:48 Where is the biggest room for improvement? Connection 26:05 Where to start: resources for veterans and families 27:35 Families, and the 135 people affected by a single suicide Learn more about Wounded Warrior Project: woundedwarriorproject.org

Masked men with vans full of fuel outside the British base that launched B-52s against Iran. A FlyDubai co-pilot stabbing his captain on a flight to Tel Aviv. A drone knocking out power to the Prophet's Mosque in Medina. Three incidents in one week, as Iran's 45-day deadline on the U.S. blockade expires and a third American carrier heads for the region. Is Iran launching a terror campaign? I don't think so. If Iran is behind these incidents, it looks less like an offensive and more like a regime testing three different escalation paths, all before U.S. combat power peaks in late November. In this solo brief, I walk through each incident the way I'd brief a commander: what we know, what we don't, the competing explanations, and my confidence level. Then I cover where this fits on Iran's escalation ladder and the indicators to watch over the next six weeks. Chapters: 00:00 Is Iran escalating through terror? 02:47 Bottom line up front 03:41 Incident 1: RAF Fairford 08:44 Incident 2: The FlyDubai cockpit attack 12:49 Why this doesn't fit the pilot-suicide pattern 18:31 Incident 3: The Medina grid strike 21:30 Why now? The November window 23:54 What to watch next Mentioned in this episode: Gray zone operations with F. David Diaz: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-RUmBaqkTQ&t=33s Robert Pape on the Escalation Trap: https://www.youtube.com/@AttheWatersEdge-r5e/playlists Watch the full video version, with maps and the flight data, on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlp8SIKfNIY Members of The Briefing Room on YouTube get a companion video on state use of suicide terrorism: who becomes a suicide attacker, why states have used them, and why most stopped. https://www.youtube.com/@AttheWatersEdge-r5e/membership Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg

Trita Parsi argues Trump is looking for a "last chapter" in Iran, an ending that makes the whole war look worth it, and that diplomacy won't give him one. Iran's president flew to New York in the middle of a war to put a deal on the table, and Trump rejected it within days. Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, joins At the Water's Edge to explain what Iran was really offering and why both sides may be heading toward a third round of war. We discuss why Iran's UNGA proposal mirrors the collapsed MOU, and why sanctions can hurt Iran without changing its policy. Parsi puts the odds of major U.S. escalation after the midterms at 70–80%, and explains why Iran may try to strike first. We also get into what a Democratic Congress could mean for the war and for Secretary Hegseth, and his argument that Europe is already a party to the conflict. On China, he covers Chinese commercial satellite imagery, China's role in holding down oil prices, and the soaring cost of escorting tankers through the Gulf. We close on why Tehran won't make irreversible nuclear concessions to a president it doesn't trust. Chapters: 00:00 Iran's president comes to New York 00:43 Iran's new offer and the MOU 03:16 Are sanctions actually working? 05:52 Has Washington learned anything? 08:10 The odds of U.S. escalation 09:41 What if Democrats win the midterms? 12:03 Why Iran wants a deal before the midterms 14:08 Real offer or message to the world? 16:25 Is Europe already in this war? 20:31 Will China or Russia get involved? 26:06 Could Iran overplay its hand? 28:44 Where to find Trita Parsi Guest: Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft quincyinst.org tritaparsi.substack.com X: @tparsi Watch the full video on YouTube: At the Water's Edge Subscribe on Substack: substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg At the Water's Edge is a national security and geopolitics podcast hosted by Scott Kelly, a former Green Beret and one of the last ground force commanders in Afghanistan. Views expressed by guests are their own.

Iran offered Trump a seven-day path to end the war. Robert Pape explains why taking it or refusing it both hurt him before the midterms. Iran's president came to the UN in New York with a deal on the table: a quick end to the fighting and a return of nuclear inspectors, in exchange for money up front. University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape argues the offer is a trap. Any upfront payment from Washington costs Trump with his own base whether Iran delivers or not. Walking away keeps oil prices high heading into the midterms. Either way, Tehran wins. Host Scott Kelly, a former Green Beret, and Pape also discuss: - Why the June MOU fell apart, and why Pape says it's about the balance of power, not who broke it first - What Kissinger's "diplomacy" really meant, and what it tells us about negotiating with Iran - Pape's forecast for Pete Hegseth, and why he says this is only the beginning - Why this winter could be the real reckoning for oil, diesel, and heating fuel, with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve already drawn down - What it means if France sends forces to Saudi Arabia to counter the Houthis, as it is reportedly considering - Why a Europe pulled into the Middle East is a gift to Putin The rest of the Q&A, including whether Israel would attempt an assassination on U.S. soil and Pape's case that Netanyahu isn't running Trump's war, is available now to Briefing Room members on our YouTube channel and will be released for everyone later this week. Follow Robert Pape's analysis on The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com Subscribe to At the Water's Edge on Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg At the Water's Edge is a national security and geopolitics podcast hosted by Scott Kelly, a former Green Beret, taking a practitioner's view beyond the headlines.

Joe Stabley is a Special Forces medic turned physician assistant — one of the most demanding career fields in the military, followed by a doctorate-adjacent civilian one. By any outward measure, he was a success. He also spent the better part of a decade managing suicidal ideation that started with a friend's death on a peacetime deployment before 9/11, and that he describes as something he still lives with today, not something he's recovered from. This conversation traces that whole arc: Jason's suicide in the Sinai when Joe was 19, two more friends lost in the years that followed, a breakdown in an ER that led him to the edge of a freeway overpass, an Adderall dependency that started as a PA-school fix, and the VA and Wounded Warrior Project support that ultimately got him here — now a member of WWP's national campaign team. Joe calls this the most raw interview he's ever given, and it shows. If you or someone you know is in crisis, call or text 988 (Suicide & Crisis Lifeline), or reach the Veterans Crisis Line at 988, press 1. This is Episode 4 of Still Here, a five-part series produced in partnership with Wounded Warrior Project for Suicide Prevention Awareness Month. Catch up with Episodes 1–3 (Zach, Lindsey, and Sam) if you haven't yet. Episode 5 — Lyndsay Tkach, WWP's Director of Mental and Brain Health Services, closing out the series — drops next week. Chapters: 0:00 Welcome, and introducing Joe 0:17 Setting up the paradox: a celebrated medic who decided to die 2:38 Pre-9/11: Jason's suicide at a peacetime outpost in the Sinai 9:08 Iraq, 2007: losing Rob Perelli and carrying the weight forward 11:07 Coming home to a healthcare system that felt broken 13:12 Does military life itself brutalize people, combat or not? 14:31 Genetics, childhood, and service: combat as catalyst, not cause 18:06 Has suicide prevention actually improved since he was 19? 20:14 Was Jason's death alone enough to explain everything? 22:28 "I dedicated my entire life to medicine" — and the weight of not saving people 26:03 "This is the measuring stick by which I judge my existence" 26:52 Medical retirement, and the Green Beret actuarial tables 28:48 Eleven years in, and losing a second friend right after the first 32:48 How does a guy with everything going for him get here? 33:04 PA school begins 33:24 A panic attack in uniform, and the trigger that came out of nowhere 39:23 Diagnosis, Adderall, and a dependency he didn't see coming 40:47 The ER, a schedule with no rhythm, and the first suicidal moment 52:05 Did being a provider make it harder to see it in himself? 52:48 Getting help: the VA, Vet Centers, and finally talking 56:03 "A chronic condition you're managing in real time" 56:18 His advice: don't carry this alone 1:05:32 Closing thoughts Learn more about Wounded Warrior Project: woundedwarriorproject.org

For more than a decade, Israel has been the only country in the Middle East flying a fifth-generation stealth fighter. That's about to change. The Trump administration has approved the sale of 48 F-35s and 49 engines to Saudi Arabia. Congress has 30 days to object. It almost certainly won't. But the purchase is counterintuitive. The F-35 has lost some of its luster: one was confirmed hit by radar-directed Iranian ground fire during Operation Epic Fury, and the war in the region suggests cheap drones may beat exquisite airframes. So why would Riyadh spend big on a jet whose stealth advantage has an expiration date? Scott Kelly, former Green Beret and one of the last ground force commanders in Afghanistan, argues the answer has less to do with military effectiveness than with regime survival. A drone force at scale requires a large, competent ground military, and a competent military is a coup risk. Forty-eight pilots are not. In this episode: - Why monarchies prefer air forces to armies - How the F-35 locks Saudi Arabia into the U.S. defense industrial base for decades - "Sell the gun, control the bullets": arms sales as permanent dependency - Israel's legally guaranteed Qualitative Military Edge, and why the Saudi jet will be a U.S.-locked, less capable version of Israel's F-35I - Turkey, Qatar, and the UAE waiting in line What does this mean for Israel? That's in the members-only companion episode in The Briefing Room on YouTube and in the write-up on Substack. Join the Briefing Room: https://www.youtube.com/@AttheWatersEdge-r5e

The midterms are five and a half weeks away, and Professor Robert Pape says most of the warnings are aimed at the wrong window. Political violence around elections isn't mainly about intimidating voters before Election Day. The real danger zone opens the moment the polls close and the counting starts, and it runs all the way through certification. The question is whether the losers will accept the loss. Pape joins Scott to talk about his new book, Our Own Worst Enemies: America in the Age of Violent Populism . It draws on five years of research and 20 national surveys of support for political violence in the United States. They get into the domestic escalation trap America is walking into, why the Iran war could give the president much stronger legal footing to use the National Guard or the military at home than he had in 2020, why the guardrails that held in 2020 are gone, and what service members need to understand before any order comes. Get the book: https://www.amazon.com/Our-Own-Worst-Enemies-Populism/dp/1620979586/ref=sr_1_1?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.vs_iGQNW5qgYzmPAhBuYLw.d8JMeR0ou3Gdzt5HvoGc6u1M8nsI9WC3xo8dzqM5_Ec&dib_tag=se&keywords=9781620979587&linkCode=qs&qid=1790261780&s=books&sr=1-1 Robert Pape's Substack, The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com

Sabotage. Arson. Drone swarms over critical infrastructure. Cyber intrusions into American water utilities. Gray zone attacks are built to look like accidents, fall between agencies, and do their damage before anyone connects the dots. Fmr. NSC Director F. David Diaz, a Marine officer turned State Department and Joint Staff strategist who now teaches at Georgetown, joins Scott to break down his new Council on Foreign Relations report on gray zone attacks against U.S. allies and partners. They cover what makes an attack "gray zone," why deniability doesn't have to last forever to work, and the campaign recognition problem. They also get into why Russia is reportedly shifting its targeting toward smaller defense companies in Europe and why no one in the U.S. government clearly owns the problem. Plus: why institutional reform tends to be "written in blood," and what government and industry can do before it comes to that. Read the CFR report, Gray Zone Attacks Against U.S. Allies and Partners: https://www.cfr.org/reports/gray-zone-attacks-against-u-s-allies-and-partners Subscribe on Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg Note: Grayzone Advisory, sponsor of the show, is a consulting firm and not in the business of conducting gray zone operations. Learn more at grayzoneadvisory.com.

Sam Hargrove spent years being known for her smile — while privately battling a rage she couldn't explain, seven rounds of anger management, and a night she nearly drove her car into a tree. A communications specialist caught in an explosion in Iraq, Sam faced a specific kind of dismissal on top of everything else: "ain't nothing wrong with you," the running joke aimed at a "chair force" veteran who didn't fit anyone's picture of what combat trauma looks like. This conversation covers the explosion, the personality change that followed, the moment her godson saw her rage and got scared, the night in the rain that nearly ended differently, and how Wounded Warrior Project's Warrior Care Network and an inpatient program at Emory gave her the follow-up care the VA's "initial push" didn't. She's now a WWP peer leader and national campaign team member — someone other veterans call at 3 a.m. If you or someone you know is in crisis, call or text 988 (Suicide & Crisis Lifeline), or reach the Veterans Crisis Line at 988, press 1. This is Episode 3 of Still Here, a five-part series produced in partnership with Wounded Warrior Project for Suicide Prevention Awareness Month. Catch up with Episode 1 (Zach) and Episode 2 (Lindsey) if you haven't yet. Episode 4 — Joe, a fellow Green Beret whose story takes a very different turn — drops this Sunday. Chapters: 0:00 Cold open & recap of the series so far 1:06 Welcome, and introducing Sam 1:37 A generational connection: same war, different era 2:54 Setting the scene: an explosion in Iraq 3:20 Seven anger management classes, and the day her godson saw her rage 6:15 "Black female in the chair force": identity, stigma, and the VA 6:58 "Ain't nothing wrong with you" — the running joke 8:44 The explosion itself, and what she still doesn't know 9:31 How the rage and drinking built over time 10:36 "Shut up and color": why she never sought help in uniform 12:33 A hair-trigger she couldn't explain 13:23 Coming home: losing the Fourth of July 14:16 The night she decided to end it 16:45 What was scarier: dying, or asking for help 17:25 VA vs. Wounded Warrior Project: why follow-up mattered 18:35 Inside the Emory inpatient program 21:28 Her Emory circle vs. her military circle 22:17 Losing people to suicide, including an uncle in November 24:29 "He wasn't weak, he just couldn't fight anymore" 26:43 What to do if you're worried about someone 28:17 "Check on your happy friends" 29:55 Next week: Joe's story Learn more about Wounded Warrior Project: woundedwarriorproject.org This episode is brought to you by Grayzone Advisory. At the Water's Edge is hosted by Scott Kelly. Follow for weekly conversations on national security, geopolitics, and the people who serve.

University of Chicago professor Robert Pape ( Bombing to Win , The Escalation Trap ) is back for his weekly read on the U.S.-Iran conflict — and this one goes to a darker place than usual. Pape lays out how Iran is quietly becoming an oil hegemon through the Houthis and Iraqi militias, why the IRGC's threat to "shock the world" might be a signal about Pickaxe Mountain, and what actually happens — militarily, economically, and politically — if the U.S. or Israel uses a tactical nuclear weapon to try to end it. Scott and Pape also cover the 5-stage escalation trap framework, the case for offshore balancing, a possible Korean-style armistice in Ukraine, and whether recent U.S. strikes could constitute war crimes. Topics: 01:09 — Iran's rise as an oil hegemon 08:30 — Inside Pickaxe Mountain: can we even reach it? 14:59 — The case against a tactical nuclear strike 18:25 — Breaking the taboo: America as global pariah 24:48 — Political fallout and the road to a ground war 37:03 — The escalation trap, explained 46:08 — Europe, Ukraine, and the case for an armistice 52:00 — War crimes, morality, and power Follow Robert Pape's analysis at escalationtrap.substack.com. Pape returns Thursday to preview his new book, Our Own Worst Enemies . Subscribe to At the Water's Edge on Substack: substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg