At the Water's Edge

Dan Driscoll just resigned as Army Secretary after eighteen months — the shortest tenure in the role's modern history. That alone is a story. But he's the latest name on a list of more than 80 senior military leaders forced out or sidelined since January 2025, a purge with no precedent in the post-WWII era. This week, I connect Driscoll's exit to the Washington Post's report on four-star commands refusing to sign off on the Secretary of Defense's war plans, the collapsing trust inside the Pentagon's command climate, and a defense industrial base that still can't field a new weapon system fast enough to matter. Solo breakdown, no guest — just the pattern, laid out plainly. Get the full slide deck behind this episode on Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg

Six months into the Iran war, the exchange of fire over the Strait of Hormuz just restarted. Professor Robert Pape returns to break down why the U.S. strike on Larak Island and Iran's retaliation against Jordan (and reportedly the UAE) aren't tit-for-tat — they're a denial strategy straight out of his book Bombing to Win. We cover the Army Secretary's resignation, the 82nd Airborne's extended deployment, whether a division-level operation into Iran is still physically feasible, and what the November 3rd–January 3rd window could mean for how this war plays out. Read Pape's real-time analysis at The Escalation Trap (escalationtrap.substack.com) and send questions for his audience Q&A to askrobertpape@gmail.com.

We're Not Leaving: What the 82nd Airborne's Year-Long Extension Tells Us About the Iran War The 82nd Airborne Division exists to deploy anywhere in the world within 18 hours. This week, its command team told paratrooper families their CENTCOM deployment is extending to a full year — and buried in that letter is the clearest signal yet of how long the United States expects to stay engaged with Iran. In this solo breakdown, Scott walks through the letter unit by unit — Division Headquarters, DIVARTY, the sustainment brigade, an air defense battalion, and a brigade combat team — and explains what each one's presence in theater actually signals about the mission, as distinct from what's just routine rotation. Topics covered in this episode: Why deploying a division headquarters, not just a brigade, changes the calculus What the sustainment brigade's presence tells you about plans for maneuver forces that haven't arrived yet The finite math of American expeditionary power: how many active-duty divisions are actually built for rapid deployment, and what it costs to tie one down for a year Why the deployment's end date — March 2027 — lands conveniently after the midterms and the seating of a new Congress The Abrams Doctrine: the post-Vietnam decision to embed sustainment capability in the Reserve and National Guard specifically to force political accountability before a war can be sustained — and why Guard/Reserve activation is the next indicator worth watching The logistical and operational security problems with any surprise airborne operation against Iran, given basing constraints and adversary satellite coverage What extended deployments elsewhere — including the USS Abraham Lincoln — suggest about troop morale and force strain going into a second year of this conflict This is a practitioner's read on a story most outlets covered as a personnel-policy footnote. It isn't. At the Water's Edge is a national security and geopolitics podcast that looks for insights beyond the headlines. Newsletter: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg

Trump just invoked a Depression-era tariff statute that's never been used at this scale — against the one G7 ally that's a sole-source supplier for the U.S. Army's artillery propellant and a critical link in the F-35 supply chain. Scott breaks down the actual USMCA timeline, which of the administration's five stated justifications for the trade war actually holds up, and why the timing — six months into the Iran war, with the Pentagon pushing contractors to surge munitions production — makes this one of the more strategically incoherent fights Washington could pick right now.

The ceasefire MOU with Iran has expired, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has launched what he's calling an "economic D-Day" — the same day Iran's new National Security Council chief, Mohsen Rezaei, threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz to any nation that cooperates with US sanctions. Professor Robert Pape returns to the show with the historical argument he's been building for months: since World War One, economic pressure has never once ended a major war on its own. Not Germany, not Japan, not Iraq, not Iran to date. It takes extraordinary military force layered on top — and the cases where policymakers convinced themselves otherwise are the cases that produced the worst blowback, including the oil embargo that pushed Japan toward Pearl Harbor. This episode breaks down what the new sanctions package can realistically accomplish, why Iran's 3,600-mile land border makes this a harder problem than any prior sanctions regime, and what Saudi Arabia's new defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan signals about the region's confidence in Washington. 🔗 Robert Pape's live briefing tonight + full memo: escalationtrap.substack.com 📩 Send a question for the professor: askrobertpape@gmail.com (personal email only, please) 📬 At the Water's Edge on Substack: substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg 🛡️ Geopolitical risk consulting: grayzoneadvisory.com

Iran has moved from survival to ambition to hard power — and it's reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East while Washington stays on the sidelines. University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape returns for his weekly real-time breakdown of the U.S.-Iran conflict. This week: a tentative Iran-Oman deal on Strait of Hormuz traffic, Iran's new list of demands to reopen it, two overlapping defense coalitions forming across the Gulf and Red Sea, and Pape's enrichment-curve analysis on how close Iran actually is to a nuclear weapon — and why he says U.S. policy is teaching them to build one. In this episode: – The Iran-Oman Strait agreement and Iran's demands to reopen Hormuz – The Mecca joint defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan – The Houthi war on Saudi oil and Iran's "resistance security belt" strategy – Why Gulf states are drifting out of America's orbit – Pape's case for why Iran is on track to become the fourth global power – The path to $6 gas, and why every major power in this conflict keeps walking into its own escalation trap – Audience questions on Europe's role and the Obama-era nuclear deal counterfactual Got a question for Prof. Pape? Send it to askrobertpape@gmail.com for a shot at a future episode. Robert Pape is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and author of The Escalation Trap on Substack: escalationtrap.substack.com More analysis every week on the Substack: substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg Need geopolitical risk analysis for your organization? grayzoneadvisory.com

This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time — and the first episode where audience questions go directly to Pape on air. We open with what's actually known about the pause in strikes and the low-level Iran-Oman talks over Hormuz transit fees, which Pape argues is not a sign of progress but of strategic paralysis: a White House caught between an air campaign that hasn't achieved its goals and a negotiated path that means conceding to Iran's steadily expanding demands. Pape connects this to a larger thesis — that American dominance in the Persian Gulf, essentially unchallenged since the 1991 Gulf War, is giving way to a power vacuum that regional actors are moving to fill. He ties this directly to the Minnesota water-system cyberattacks, now assessed by U.S. intelligence as likely Iranian in origin, which he characterizes as a calibrated test of American resolve. He closes with his "nightmare scenario" for the next two months of the war, built around economic pressure, political necessity, and the risk of an Iranian response that reaches beyond the region. In our first audience Q&A segment, we put listener questions to Pape directly: whether anything could stop Iran from targeting Gulf desalination infrastructure serving 66 million people, whether a U.S. land blockade on Iran is realistically achievable, and whether the war in Ukraine and the war with Iran could become linked through Caspian Sea shipping. Robert Pape publishes ongoing frameworks and updates on this war at The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ Scott's Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg

America Can't Build Weapons Fast Enough | The Pentagon's Former Acting Chairman Explains Why Admiral Chris Grady (Ret.) spent over 40 years in the Navy, commanded at every level from ship to fleet, and served as Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — including a stretch as Acting Chairman during one of the most chaotic weeks in recent Pentagon history. Now retired and serving as a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Business Executives for National Security (BENS), he joins the show to break down why America's defense industrial base can't keep pace with modern conflict, and what it would actually take to fix it. We cover his own framework for how the character of war is changing: the shift from platform-centric to system-centric thinking, why "attritable mass" is rewriting the cost-exchange math of modern combat, why the electromagnetic spectrum is now a contested warfighting domain in its own right, and why the industrial base itself has become a tool of deterrence. Along the way: the 155mm shell shortage, the cost-exchange problem of cheap drones against expensive interceptors, why the U.S. still hasn't fielded a real answer to 1991's Blue Force Tracker, and the workforce gap behind it all, including why a welder can out-earn a lot of college grads. Read Adm. Grady's article, "The Future of War," on The BENS Lens: https://thebenslens.substack.com/p/the-future-of-war Learn more about BENS: [bens.org] Subscribe to my Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg

This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. Pape recorded this episode without power of his own — tornadoes had just knocked out electricity across the south side of Chicago — and turns his own blackout into a working case study for what it would actually mean for the U.S. to take down Iran's electric grid. We walk through the difference between hitting a grid's transformers and hitting its generator halls, why one is fixed in days and the other takes months, and what a real months-long blackout does to a city of ten million people: food spoilage, water pressure collapse, hospitals losing dialysis and surgical capacity, and no air conditioning in near-100-degree heat. Pape explains why that level of damage — what he calls "medium" civilian punishment — tends to produce revenge rather than surrender, drawing on his historical research into World War II bombing campaigns and Pearl Harbor, and where the ceiling actually sits before a population is too devastated to seek payback. From there we turn to the drone hunt: the scale problem behind suppressing Iran's Shaheed arsenal, why the search area is one and a half times the size of California, and why Pape doesn't believe the Strait of Hormuz reopens before the midterms. We close on the political clock both Washington and Tehran are racing against, and why Pape thinks Iran's actual target has never been our bases in the Gulf — it's the presidency itself. Robert Pape publishes ongoing frameworks and updates on this war at The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ Scott's Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg

Cities and towns across America are signing non-disclosure agreements with corporations — and in some cases, officials aren't even allowed to tell the public an NDA exists. Investigative journalist Miranda Spivack joins the show to explain how local government secrecy became a national security issue. Miranda spent twenty years at The Washington Post covering state and local government. Her new book, Backroom Deals in Our Backyards: How Government Secrecy Harms Our Communities and the Local Heroes Fighting Back (The New Press), documents how "accidental activists" across the country have fought back against poisoned water, toxic firefighter gear, and opaque data center deals. We cover why data centers are driving a wave of secret NDAs between corporations and local officials, the Hoosick Falls, NY water contamination case, what happened when Amazon went hunting for its second headquarters, why the collapse of local news makes all of this harder to catch, and how local government secrecy connects to national power and America's data infrastructure race. Guest: Miranda S. Spivack — veteran journalist, former Washington Post editor/reporter, Fulbright Scholar, and author of Backroom Deals in Our Backyards (The New Press, 2025). Book: available from The New Press with discount code BACKROOM30, or at your local bookstore and bookshop.org Substack: backroomdeals.substack.com X: @mirandareporter

The war with Iran has entered what Robert Pape, Professor at the University of Chicago, calls the "spiral phase" — a dynamic that's both vertical, with harsher strikes on both sides, and horizontal, with the Red Sea now pulled into the conflict via a Houthi blockade. This week brings the death of three more U.S. service members, bringing the total to 17, a bombing campaign now targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure at scale, a reinstated naval blockade, and strikes on multiple Kuwaiti desalination plants — cutting off water that millions of people depend on, with no backup supply. We cover why Pape believes he's been modeling this exact war for twenty years, and why he traces its real starting point to the bombing of the Fordow enrichment facility in June 2025, not the more commonly cited February 2026 date. We discuss new intelligence around a facility Pape refers to as "Pickaxe Mountain" and concerns about uranium enrichment moving toward weapons-grade levels, why Pape argues that neither Trump nor Iran actually controls the outcome of this war — commercial shipping companies do — and the parallel Pape draws between Trump's political calculus now and Lyndon Johnson's decision-making during Vietnam. Pape publishes ongoing analysis of the conflict in his Substack, The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ For more analysis on this conflict, subscribe to the At the Water's Edge Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg This is a weekly recurring conversation tracking the Iran war in real time. New episodes drop every week.

The war with Iran is back on, and according to Robert Pape, Professor at the University of Chicago, we are now knocking on the door of the most dangerous stage of the conflict yet. This week, Pape walks through why Iran's Supreme Leader has issued a call for revenge attacks on Americans anywhere in the world, why that statement closely parallels the fatwa issued against Salman Rushdie three decades ago, and why he believes the U.S. and Iran are both boxed into an escalation neither side can easily walk back from. We cover why Pape believes punishment campaigns and the recently failed MOU have left Trump with few remaining off-ramps, why Pape expects the coming wave of violence to be driven by inspired rather than centrally directed attackers, and the historical parallel Pape draws between Trump's current position and Imperial Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor. We also discuss why Pape believes a nuclear strike remains unlikely in the near term, and why he has been warning for months that this war could extend well into 2027. Pape publishes ongoing analysis of the conflict in his Substack, The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ This is a weekly recurring conversation tracking the Iran war in real time. New episodes drop every week.

Joe Kent spent 21 years in Army Special Forces and the CIA before becoming President Trump's Director of the National Counterterrorism Center — then walked away from it, resigning in protest over the war with Iran. This week I sit down with him to talk about what he saw from inside the administration in the weeks before he quit, why he believes Israel drove the decision to strike, and what it actually looks like to try to "coach up" a president who's stopped listening. We get into the collapse of the MOU, whether the US has any leverage left in the Strait of Hormuz, and why he thinks the all-volunteer force has quietly severed the military from the country it defends. We also cover ground most of his interviews haven't: whether some form of compulsory service is the only real check left on endless wars, and whether 2028 opens the door to a genuine third party built around opposition to foreign intervention. Joe Kent: 21 years in Special Operations (75th Ranger Regiment, 5th Special Forces Group), CIA paramilitary officer, and former Director of the National Counterterrorism Center. Follow him at x.com/joekent16jan19. At the Water's Edge is a weekly conversation with practitioners and analysts on national security and geopolitics, hosted by a former Green Beret. New episodes every week

Just days after President Trump's Fourth of July weekend, Iran held a massive funeral for its slain leadership — and millions turned out. In this week's installment of our ongoing series on the war with Iran, Robert Pape, Professor at the University of Chicago and one of the leading scholars on coercion, airpower, and political violence, argues that the funeral marks a turning point that has nothing to do with capability and everything to do with will. Pape lays out his case that four and a half months of decapitation strikes, blockade, and bombing have not broken Iranian public resolve — and why that matters for the ongoing negotiations set for July 11th. We cover Kuwait and Bahrain's complaint to the UN Security Council, why Iran is reportedly turning down financial offers from Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, the risk of Washington falling into an "echo chamber" on Iran policy, and why Pape believes pressure could build toward further escalation as soon as August. Pape publishes ongoing analysis of the conflict in his Substack, The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ This is a weekly recurring conversation tracking the Iran war in real time. New episodes drop every week.

This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran in real time. After new strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. bombing inside Iran, Iranian missile attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, and renewed talk of a ceasefire, Pape argues that the conflict is not ending. Instead, we are in the middle game of the escalation trap. That means periods of violence followed by pauses — not a durable ceasefire. Pape explains why Iran has not been deterred by assassination, bombing, blockade pressure, or threats. Instead, Iran may be entering a period of maximum coercive leverage as oil inventories draw down and pressure grows on the global economy. We also discuss Iran’s nuclear trajectory, the risks facing U.S. forces in the Gulf, the role of Lebanon and the Red Sea, Israel’s future security position, and why the timing of Iran’s nuclear decision may depend less on politics and more on feasibility. Why Pape says Iran is not deterred Why this is military action and pause — not a real ceasefire How the war remains in the middle game of the escalation trap Why Iran may continue kinetic pressure in the Strait of Hormuz How oil inventories shape Iran’s coercive leverage Why Lebanon, Hezbollah, and the Red Sea matter to Iran’s regional strategy What this means for U.S. forces in the Gulf How Iran’s nuclear calculus may be changing Whether Iran would sprint to a nuclear weapon or wait Why nuclear timing may come down to feasibility, not politics The war did not end. The ceasefire is not holding in any meaningful strategic sense. And Iran may be using this phase of the conflict to increase leverage, pressure U.S. forces, and move closer to the kind of regional power position Pape has warned about throughout this series. Escalation Trap Substack: https://escalationtrap.substack.com At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow Robert Pape’s work:About the show:

In the final episode of our PTSD series, Scott speaks with Dr. Jessica Maples Keller of Emory University about the future of psychedelic-assisted therapy for PTSD.Emory has been studying MDMA and psilocybin in a clinical setting, with a focus on how these treatments might enhance evidence-based care like prolonged exposure therapy. Dr. Maples Keller explains how clinical trials are designed, why Schedule I status creates major barriers, what safety screening looks like, and why access and cost may become the next major challenge even if psychedelic-assisted treatments are eventually approved.Then LTG(R) Walt Piatt, CEO of Wounded Warrior Project, returns to close out the series. He reflects on where the veteran community stands in addressing PTSD, what the VA and DoD are getting right and wrong, and whether the innovation happening across nonprofits, universities, and private organizations is a hopeful story about American civil society — or a sign that government systems are still moving too slowly.This episode asks a simple question: if the future of PTSD treatment is already being built, why are so many veterans still waiting?Guests:Dr. Jessica Maples Keller — Associate Professor, Emory University School of MedicineLTG(R) Walt Piatt — CEO, Wounded Warrior ProjectResources:Emory Healthcare Veterans Program:https://www.emoryhealthcare.org/centers-programs/veterans-programFor information about Emory psychedelic-assisted therapy studies:PATstudy@emory.eduMAPS — Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies:https://maps.org/STRONG STAR:https://www.strongstar.org/Compass Pathways:https://compasspathways.com/Heroic Hearts Project:https://heroicheartsproject.org/Oregon Psilocybin Services:https://www.oregon.gov/psilocybinAustralia Therapeutic Goods Administration — MDMA and psilocybin:https://www.tga.gov.au/products/unapproved-therapeutic-goods/mdma-and-psilocybineWounded Warrior Project:https://www.woundedwarriorproject.org/

This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. The U.S. and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding. But according to Pape, that does not mean the war is over. Instead, the battlefield may be shifting to the negotiations themselves. Pape argues that while the U.S. and financial markets may view the agreement through a business-deal lens — oil flows, payments, stability, and costs — Iran may be approaching the negotiations through a balance-of-power lens. The question is not simply what the deal says. The question is whether the deal locks in a new regional balance of power. In this episode, we discuss what the MOU means, why Hormuz remains central, how Iran may use negotiations to gain leverage, what Hezbollah and Lebanon mean to Iran’s regional strategy, and why Israel may now face a far more difficult strategic environment. Why a signed deal does not necessarily mean peace How negotiations can become a battlefield of their own Why the business-deal model may miss the real power dynamics How Iran may use the MOU to lock in regional gains Why the Strait of Hormuz remains central to Iran’s leverage What Hezbollah and Lebanon mean to Iran’s regional strategy Why Israel may be in deep strategic trouble How the U.S.-Israel relationship could change under pressure What this means for Jordan, Egypt, and Gulf states Whether Iran could overreach in the negotiations A deal may stop the immediate shooting. But if the agreement shifts power toward Iran, the conflict may simply be entering a new phase. The war may not be ending. It may be moving to the negotiating table. New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves. Escalation Trap Substack: https://escalationtrap.substack.com At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:Follow Robert Pape’s work:About the show:

Why Veterans Are Going Overseas for Psychedelics In part two of our PTSD series, Scott speaks with Jesse Gould, founder of the Heroic Hearts Project and a former Army Ranger from the 75th Ranger Regiment, about why some veterans are seeking psychedelic-assisted treatment outside the traditional U.S. medical system. Jesse shares his own story of leaving the military, struggling with PTSD, anxiety, depression, alcohol misuse, and hypervigilance, and eventually traveling to Peru for ayahuasca after feeling that the available treatment options were not enough. That experience led him to launch Heroic Hearts Project, a nonprofit helping veterans access legal psychedelic-assisted programs while emphasizing preparation, safety, screening, and integration. This conversation explores the promise, risk, controversy, and policy questions surrounding psychedelic treatment for veterans. It is not a discussion about miracle cures. It is about what happens when veterans run out of options, why many are looking beyond the VA, and whether the American medical system is ready for what may be coming next. Learn more about Heroic Hearts Project:https://www.heroicheartsproject.org/ Topics discussed: PTSD, veteran mental health, ayahuasca, psilocybin, MDMA-assisted therapy, the VA, alternative treatments, integration, risk mitigation, and the future of psychedelic medicine for veterans. Note: This episode is for informational purposes only and is not medical advice. Anyone considering treatment for PTSD or other mental health conditions should consult qualified medical professionals.

This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. Reports suggest the U.S. and Iran may be moving toward a deal. But Pape argues that a signing ceremony, memorandum, or public claim of victory does not necessarily mean the war is ending. For frontline U.S. forces in CENTCOM and the Gulf, the real signal is not diplomatic language. The real signal is whether U.S. forces physically leave the region. Until ships, aircraft, Marines, ground forces, tanker support, and carrier groups are actually withdrawn, the escalation trap remains in place. In this episode, we discuss what a possible agreement really means, why the 60-day negotiation window could increase Iran’s leverage, how oil inventories and energy markets affect escalation risk, and why Israel may become more isolated as Gulf states hedge toward Iran. Why a deal does not necessarily mean peace What U.S. forces in the Gulf should actually watch Why physical withdrawal matters more than diplomatic language How the 60-day negotiation window could shape escalation risk Why oil inventories give Iran growing leverage What the agreement could mean for Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah Whether Gulf states are hedging or bandwagoning toward Iran Why the Abraham Accords framework may be in trouble How the conflict could reshape nuclear deterrence debates in the region A deal is not the off-ramp unless the force posture changes. If U.S. forces remain in the Gulf, the war is not over. New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves. At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:About the show:

Surviving war is only the beginning for many veterans. In Part 1 of this series on post-traumatic stress disorder, At the Water’s Edge examines what PTSD is, why it is so often misunderstood, why many veterans wait years before receiving care, and what effective treatment can look like. This episode features three voices from Wounded Warrior Project: Dr. Erin Fletcher, Director of Warrior Care Network; Ryan Kules, an Iraq veteran who lost an arm and a leg in an IED attack and now leads Project Odyssey; and John Eaton, Vice President for Complex Care. Together, they explain how trauma affects the brain and body, why stigma and system friction keep veterans from care, how evidence-based treatment works, and why recovery is possible. Before this series turns to psychedelic medicine and the future of PTSD treatment, we start with the foundation: PTSD is real, it is treatable, and getting care can change a veteran’s life.