The Grumpy Strategists chat about defence and security issues, from an Australian perspective. We say simple things about complicated issues that help cut through the politics and careful bureaucratic talking points. Critical but constructive conversations about the big security and technology issues affecting our world. RSSVERIFY
Marcus undertakes an emergency mercy flight to Washington DC to comfort and counsel Department of War deputy Elbridge Colby, stunned by the stab in the back from America's Aussie ally on American access to a sub base in Western Australia. After telling Americans and the world that US subs use of the base had always been time limited and would end in 2032, Mr Conroy undertook an intense self-criticism session. Demonstrating his flexibility, he then directly contradicted himself on instruction from his Party senior, Deputy Prime Minister Marles. But the damage was done. It turns out America is just the most recent nation to experience the dangers of trusting Australian officials on anything to do with submarines. Beyond the support session for Mr Colby, the Grumpies find time to assess the Australian Defence organisation's latest achievements in transparency, contrasting these with the fresh approach of the local Canberra Integrity Commission that names everyone involved in a corrupt multi-million dollar construction program - because that is in the public interest. Meanwhile, the Federal government is fighting to not release unclassified information about nuclear waste plans, and Defence is suppressing the name of a senior officer facing allegations of financial and other misconduct. The episode ends with an assessment of prime minister Albanese's attempt at national leadership on AI, which is mystifying in its failure to engage with almost all the key issues.
It's a packed episode from the SAA bunker deep in the Brindabella Hills: Marcus gets into the world of high fashion with Gina Rinehart and Pauline Hanson, Michael marvels at Canada's "Three Stupids" from their recent submarine decision (although it's not clear who the stupid ones are: the Canadians who will get actual, new, submarines within a decade, or us AUKUS folk Downunder). Then the Grumpies assess the American military's first active use in war of unmanned surface attack drones and outline the effects of Ukraine's increasingly long range strategic bombing campaign against Russia, using drones and domestically designed and made cruise missiles. The episode ends with the mystery of a secret court martial of a senior Australian Navy officer, another scathing Audit report on Defence's management of taxpayer $millions, and the eerily-similar emptiness of UK Government and Australian Government "new defence money" numbers and plans.
In Episode 76, the Grumpy Strategists ponder revelations of $29 billion of waste in just some of Australia's big defence projects from Minister for defence industry Pat Conroy. His answer: bold reform that changes things in minor ways that look eerily like the flawed approach Defence took a decade ago. Instead of the Vice Chief of Defence being responsible for decisions, under these bold reforms, the Vice Chief of Defence will be responsible. The good news is that for all the failure and waste of the last decade, it was the fault of no individual making no bad decisions. No. It was 'the system' that forced these powerful well-paid officials to NOT make decisions and be paralysed by paperwork. Now these fine leaders will be free to do what they have always wanted to do but were stopped from doing - by the system they built, lived in and presided over. It's a courageous set of bold changes that will clearly take some time - probably beyond any current minister or official's time in office - to really bear fruit. The Grumpies celebrate Australia's massive and growing Documentation Overmatch over even powerful potential adversaries like the Chinese military, who are reduced to firing nuclear capable missiles into our neighbourhood in the absence of effective paperwork or a meeting to go to.
Marcus and Michael each pick their three stand out takeaways from Australian Defence officials testimony about delivery and performance to the Parliament. It's hard to pick winners in a field like this, but there's some overlap in the Grumpy choices. Taxpayers and the Parliament are not amongst them, unfortunately. Looking at the performance of senior Defence officials, 'Condescending emptiness' and 'falling upward' are terms that come to mind. None of this is building public trust in our Defence organisation or its leadership. Beyond the nasty realisation that senior Australian Defence officials are no longer servants of the public or the Parliament, but simply creatures of the Government of the day, it's good to have individual officials on the public record making claims that can be compared to evidence. Past statements (even carefully crafted avoiding manoeuvres) didn't stack up well for several - including incoming Chief of Australia's military, Mark Hammond. New Secretary Quinn displayed novel contortions to the English language and made a new 'AUKUS truth' that others then embraced. Then the Grumpies helicopter away from events in the Parliament and look at UK defence trouble, and the sobering realisation that AUKUS has turned into a rationing exercise: sharing out submarine numbers that would have existed without the whole AUKUS hoopla between the three Navies. Meanwhile, while AUKUS nations plan to get beyond rationing and increase submarine numbers sometime in the 2040s, China is shifting the AUKUS goalposts: out-producing the three nations on increasingly capable nuclear submarines, and building an extensive set of complementary undersea capabilities. Expectations that AUKUS might shift the military balance in the Pacific away from China look doomed to disappointment.
Marcus talks to SAA's man in Singapore, Graeme Dobell, about the dynamics and developments on show at the annual Defence ministers' gathering in Singapore's Shangri-La hotel. This year, its America talking up the China-US relationship as a source of stability & concert of two, while Japan rises to fill some of the void created by American unreliability, & South Korea builds sovereign power. Australia makes the lonely choice to just double down on its dependence on the USA. Marcus & Graeme explore the sartorial parallels between Pete Hegseth and the Nixon-era Alexander Haig, while remembering Australia's PM Curtin, and the imprint General Douglas MacArthur's approach to war and the region left, just as it disappears. China's defence minister was a 'no show' again - partly because speaking risks being purged by Chairman Xi and partly because China isn't bothering to tell its story anymore.
In history, a retreat from Singapore can have hairs all over it, but Richard Marles has turned that around, as the Grumpy Strategists unpack the events. At Singapore's Shangri-La dialogue, Mr Marles faced down an America First Pete Hegseth, meeting the Pentagon chief's fiery lethality towards allies with his own Aussie cold steel. The result is Australia's AUKUS deliverables are now 3 used US Virginia class subs sometime in the 2030s instead of the earlier stupid idea of getting a new sub as part of the deal. There's celebration in the streets here in Canberra now that our fears that we might get a new submarine of any kind sometime in the next 20 years have been laid to rest. Australia is moving towards global best practice in aged care for submarines with our Collins class fleet....now that we've cancelled their life extension program (??).....We must not let this national skill wither, but apply it instead to subs with nuclear reactors on board. Mr Marles and his colleague Pat Conroy seem to understand this intuitively in a way others don't. Marcus channels his inner Marles to show us the benefits of this 'chase for simplicity' and 'cost savings' through a standalone fleet of 3 used subs. It's a tweak to what we had previously understood was a uniquely complex and costly but deeply integrated 3 nation AUKUS program. The episode deals with Minister Marles' greatest fears. And with clown spiders, one of Michael's. It also shows the difference between an AUKUS Pillar 2 "Signature" project and the highly anticipated "Marquee" project many had expected. Hint: you can fit many signatures onto one marquee.
Marcus and Michael go through the scandalous revelations about 10 years of failed planning on extending the operational life of the only submarines Australia has - the 6 Collins class - while AUKUS subs slowly appear. Disturbingly, the most senior Defence leadership - including the Secretary and the Chief of Navy (just promoted to be the chief of the entire military) were advised numerous times of insurmountable technical and engineering issues with the planned life extension. The main motors and diesel generators took up more room and would require a major redesign of the entire submarine, and the result would be a sub that had to "snort" for longer and so be more vulnerable. The whole project collapsed under the weight of its flaws because an external Audit got the story out. But for years, the leadership failed to advise Government ministers. A report by a former US Defense official belled the cat in 2024 to ministers, but neither ministers nor the Defence senior leadership revealed the scandals to the public or the Parliament. Instead they kept spending $100s of millions on failure. The result is Australia's only submarines are now in aged care, limping along until the AUKUS cavalry turns up. Meanwhile, the leadership has had promotions all round. This is an insight into how AUKUS is being managed by our Defence leaders and ministers. The episode ends with a dose of truth from the UK's First Sea Lord that the Royal Navy's pursuit of ever bigger, ever more expensive platforms is a mistake - as the huge Dreadnought subs, the Type 26 and SSN-AUKUS projects sail on eating the UK military's future.
Michael and Marcus argue furiously over the merits and messages in the Albanese Govt budget versus Opposition leader Angus Taylor's response. Only one of them is right....Then Marcus burrows deep into Parliament House to find a phone to talk numbers with the Defence Chief Finance Officer. Result: a $14 billion cash bump for Defence spending over the next 4 years turns into a $1.2 billion reduction, like magic. Michael recovers from the shock of being kicked off Air Force One on its way to Beijing to listen in as a returning Donald Trump finds two buses to throw Taiwan under in his quest for a growing market for American beans. The episode ends with a trot through global demographics and the disturbing raw numbers on naval shipbuilding out of China and America. One nation is building a big new blue water fleet. The other is holding its breath saying it wants to. Premium Economy back to the SAA bunker can't land fast enough in this unravelling world.
A Zen temple helps Marcus seek balance between the contradictions in Australia's defence Strategy, while Michael struggles with a noisy kettle in the bunker. Australia's new Defence Secretary takes over the much smaller empire left by her predecessor - and brings skills to help Minister Pat Conroy produce new numbers around new 'announceables' at will. Secretary Quinn has arrived in the nick of time, right as Mr Conroy's alchemy of announceables post-strategy launch seeks to sell US Defence Prime Northrop Grumman building rocket motors in Australia by 2033 as an example of the urgent creation of sovereign Aussie sovereign industry. It's beautiful to watch Marcus apply his new mindfulness tools in a doomed but noble attempt to set out the maths behind the big new spending claims of the Australian Government in recent weeks. The episode covers the growing distortion of Australia's military towards things on the water over things in the air and land - despite Australia being a country surrounded by both water and air....and it finishes up with US sub numbers and the breath of fresh air injected into Australia's defence debate by Senator Paterson, daring to notice things like delays in big programmes, and thinking beyond the usual beat ups.
The Grumpy Strategists respond to Australia's defence minister, Richard Marles, discussing and releasing the 'new' 2026 Defence Strategy and investment plan. Marcus sees the spirit of Hiroo Onoda, second last Japanese Imperial Army soldier to surrender after World War Two - 29 years after the war ended in March 1974 alive in Mr Marles today. Like Hiroo, Mr Marles carries the flame of a world that has ended. In Hiroo Onoda's case it was faith in the Emperor and Imperial Japan's impending victory. In Mr Marles' case, it's in an America that remains the beacon of freedom, democracy and liberal values, source of global stability and anchor of the rules based international system. Both Onoda and Marles are romantics with a streak of obsession in their nature. Hiroo didn't get to determine his nation's defence policy, though. Then it's into the hard numbers of the new plan, including the combination of forensic accounting and clairvoyance needed to understand where the massive new headline Defence budget could have emerged from. The episode ends with mines and the curious case of Pete Hegseth accidentally channeling the spirit of Quentin Tarantino and a 1970s Japanese martial arts movie instead of God.....We're in good hands.
Back in the SAA Bunker deep in the Brindabellas, Marcus & Michael declare energy independence (okay, thanks to government subsidies) and ponder the details of the Trump Administration's new Defense budget. $1.5 trillion dollars delivers an all you can eat buffet of spending for everyone involved in the Military Industrial Complex. The traditional big end of town - Lockheed, RTX Raytheon, Northrop and Boeing get cash, & so do tech bro outfits like Anduril & Palantir. Just the US Army's missile budget is now bigger than the total budget of the US State Department - take that you peacenik diplomats. America First is looking like not just having a Department of War, but an entire Government of War. There are some minor problems: 1. given the real world usage rates in Iran, this 43% increase in annual spending won't produce enough expensive missiles & interceptors to fight even a short war with an adversary like China - so, not the strongest deterrent message. And 2. it looks a courageous assumption to think that US defence industry can ramp up at the scale and speed this cash splash desires. The budget describes a bad plan, that fails to adjust to the practical realities revealed in the Iran war - unless the plan is to be able to fight anyone except China or Russia.....
Marcus calls into the Grumpy Strategists' Brindabella bunker with unwelcome news on more diesel supplies. After this disappointment, the Grumpies ponder the mystery of the Gulf War - a war without belligerents. Everyone is telling their populations that they are not at war, just engaged in military operations or acts of 'collective self defence'. Here in Canberra, PM Albanese has to remember which side of his mouth he's speaking out of - the quietly supportive "I sent a Wedgetail and I know the US military loves it" side for Washington, or the "Australia has no part in this unpopular war we're just helping our good friend the UAE" side when talking to the Australian people. Then they discuss the paralysis in Australian force structure planning and the contribution that "bipartisanship" on defence policy is causing, right when both major parties are increasingly on the nose.
Well, despite the great news from Energy Minister Chris Bowen that Australia faces no energy crisis other than silly unwashed Australians panicking, the Iran War has already created a global energy crisis even if it stops now. That's less about whether the Strait of Hormuz is open and more about the broader damage already inflicted on Gulf infrastructure. Marcus journeys to Oodnadatta to pick up some premium diesel bargains - without any sign of panic. Taking a break from the War gives space to admire honorary Kentucky Colonel Richard Marles' (who is also probably still Australia's Defence Minister) latest masterclass in not answering questions: a new Personal Best from the Colonel is 11 questions, 13 deflections and zero answers. Super Bowl stuff. Then the Grumpies dive into the picture for Australia's AUKUS submarines from data about US and UK partners' actual experience maintaining and operating their nuclear subs. Best case for Australia is after 30 years (when Australia gets 8 submarines) we will be able to consistently deploy 2....Hmmmm.
President Eisenhower's 1961 farewell address warning of the US Military Industrial Complex echoes in Canberra today - but with industry and products replaced in the Canberra version by advisory services, post-career consultancies and invoices. Marcus and Michael discover that biofuel brewing isn't so easy even in a fuel crisis. Feedstock like the National Anti-Corruption Commission's (the NACC) indigestible and philosophically inventive 445 page report into the huge Robodebt scandal proves toxic enough to break the process. And the Grumpy Strategists attend another funeral of a fallen warrior for accountability and transparency when it comes to the $billions spent on Australia's faltering military - the now deceased but invaluable Major Projects Report, killed quietly by a Parliamentary committee that should know better. A new secret Parliamentary committee is apparently the antidote. But anyone who expects Defence's poor performance to improve because it talks to a few well-disposed politicians in a dark room is probably suffering from exposure to the NACC's report.. It's a lengthy episode but an important one for anyone interested in how the Canberra bureaucratic machine's most senior levels engage with our political leaders - and keep doing so after both the politicians and the senior Mandarins have left their official roles. It's also a depressing story of comfort zones and single sources of advice that often turn out to be wrong. The latest effort from the now embarrassing National Anti Corruption Commission will be reassuring to anyone who thinks things are peachy - like, say, a former or current Canberra Mandarin. But not to anyone who cares about Australia's security, public services or future.
Marcus and Michael get serious about biofuel, with a novel feedstock straight from Defence's Russell Offices. They look at the rapidly expanding Iran War, with multiple US partners getting pulled into a messy patchwork, all desperately trying to quarantine their roles into a defensive effort. They explain the Australian policy to ensure no ADF personnel are involved in attacking Iran, even when they are (hint: closing eyes at critical moments helps). The missile supply issues have intensified, with US production being diverted to the war and other forces' orders being delayed - probably by years. Despite the war apparently being way ahead of schedule, Iran's attacks are continuing, Israel is evacuating citizens away from Hezbollah drones, and US diplomats are leaving Saudi and Turkey. The episode ends with a capability roundup for Australia - pricey Peregrines, artisanal K-9s, maritime precinct sketches and broken submarines.
Marcus and Michael reflect on their wisdom in modifying the Grumpies bunker to hold thousands of litres of diesel and 8 pallets of tinned tomatoes, as the war escalates in the Middle East. They set out three scenarios for the outcome and only one of them - the least likely (spoiler, it involves rose petals and cheering crowds)- is good. Then it's on to examine the desperate contortions of US allies - notably the UK's Keir Starmer and our own PM Albanese, and ministers Marles and Wong - to avoid thinking or talking about our major ally assassinating foreign governments as a new normal. It turns out assassinating people is okay if they are 'bad guys'. And, luckily, we were kept in the dark until afterwards. Phew.
Marcus goes diving to try to find rock bottom in Australian political discourse, but has to come up for air. He at least found the curious case of a Canberra cafe that police found had put up satirical posters & hosts live music (What have we come to as a people???). No arrests or jail time yet....Then it's back to the undersea world of AUKUS progress and the far more concrete, rapid momentum behind Chinese nuclear powered - and armed - submarine production. They managed to build a new shed and other facilities in 3 years (not 16) and seem to have completed 11 nuclear submarines since AUKUS was announced. Ouch. On the Xi Jinping downside though, the riskiest job in the Chinese military turns out to be one he promoted you into: Xi's purges are expanding in his later years in power, and even seasoned Pekinologists are confused.
The Grumpy Strategists boggle at the sheer chutzpah of PM Albanese and State Premier Malinauskas announcing as a triumph spending $30 billion & taking until 2040 to build submarine construction sheds (not actual submarines). At least the premier had the honesty to say the biggest beneficiaries weren't Australians worried about security, they were the South Australians who are to receive this firehose of taxpayer cash. He's right to be boggled. Meanwhile, Australia's leaders across the spectrum from Labor, through the Coalition into One Nation land are outdoing each other in expressing their fear about the potential return of 34 women and children from camps in Syria, while clamping down on the evil of immigration. It's bad form to notice that our health system - and many other industries - depend on migrants....
The Grumpy Strategists pan for gold in 234 pages of dense, incoherent Government paperwork setting out the Albanese Government's revised plans for our nation's defence, and find some rather smelly nuggets. About $3.2 billion dollars is being brought forward to be spent earlier than planned - with a $1.2 billion chunk on more bills for those still distant AUKUS subs. But the overall Defence budget for this next 4 years is being cut by $2.6 billion. Mr Albanese may have smiled at US President Donald Trump, but he's stood strong against pressure to grow defence spending and got Treasury's razor gang in. Canadian PM Carney might make rousing speeches at Davos opposing the Trump Administration, but Mr Albanese acts. It's a great day for independent middle powers! Oh, and the Defence bureaucracy finds a way to insult King Charles.
The Grumpy Strategists look at the recent 'historic" plan for Australia's Defence real estate (okay, a shameless Government asset sale of historic sites to perhaps produce a one-off cash dribble that will be sucked into the AUKUS sub & Hunter frigate budgetary black holes.....). Metrics show the value of this deceased estate approach to Defence properties: flogging off most of the places Defence actually makes contact with Australians in urban areas may provide enough cash for two "Hegseths" - those $1 billion AUKUS suitcases Richard Marles travels with - or pay for 1/5 of a Hunter frigate. Hmmm. The upside is a joint venture for a tasteful new 112 storey bunker. Then it's a dive into the implications for Australia from the marked strategy shift the US has taken between the Oct 2022 & Jan 2026 National Defense Strategies, & a look at the Pentagon's disgraceful disregard of Mr Trump's recent complete and total obliteration of Iran's nuclear program: by gathering forces to....obliterate Iran's nuclear program. It's so hard to get good help.
