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Published by Ashley Boeckholt
The Lumber Word is the weekly podcast for the North American lumber and building materials industry. Three lumber industry veterans break down lumber prices, market trends, supply and demand, sawmill production, inventories, transportation, housing, and the forces moving the physical lumber market. From CME lumber futures and commodity trading to Canadian and U.S. production, wholesalers, distributors, dealers, and homebuilders , The Lumber Word brings real-world perspective from people actively participating in the market. Each week, we discuss what we're seeing, what we're hearing, where the lumber market may be headed—and occasionally disagree about all of it. If you buy, sell, trade, produce, transport, or invest in lumber and building materials, this is your market conversation.
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The lumber market is heading into Q4 with an unusual setup: inventories across the supply chain appear extremely lean, yet buyers still aren't willing to take much risk. In Episode #183, Ashley, Matt, Gregg and Charles dig into what's actually trading versus published prices, growing price disparities between mills, tightening truck availability, rail issues and the increasingly important role of freight. The group also breaks down housing starts, builder headwinds, interest rates and what declining demand could mean for mill production and lumber prices into year-end. With 2x4 looking increasingly vulnerable while several other items remain historically expensive, the conversation turns to the real question for Q4: What should you own, what should you sell, and where is the opportunity? Timeline 00:00 Housing & the Q4 Setup 02:03 Lumber Inventories Running Low 04:03 Less Lumber Than Last Year? 06:06 The Hedging Problem 08:04 Trucking Gets Ugly Again 11:07 Hem-Fir, SPF & Real Prices 13:05 Futures vs. Cash 14:23 Huge Mill Price Disparities 15:37 Are Contract Buyers Overpaying? 16:24 Southern Pine Pricing 19:04 Freight Becomes the Wild Card 22:00 Hem-Fir vs. SPF 24:13 What Changes This Market? 28:20 Rates & Housing Affordability 30:39 Are Builders Slowing Down? 32:04 The Bearish Q4 Case 34:25 Navigating Q4 35:28 Where Opportunities Still Exist 36:21 Apathy Defines the Market 36:39 What to Own & What to Sell 38:06 Marry, Date or Dump 39:03 Where Pine Prices Could Go 39:44 Final Thoughts Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
The lumber market is moving plenty of volume—but not necessarily going anywhere. This week, Ashley, Gregg and Charles are joined by Bart Charles to break down a market that is strongly sideways. The crew digs into Spruce, Hem-Fir and Southern Yellow Pine, the growing opportunity in forward pricing, tight supply in key items, and why getting aggressively long or short could be a mistake right now. With futures offering opportunities to lock in Q1 business, limited production keeping a floor under prices, and housing demand still fighting affordability, the question becomes: Where is the next real opportunity in lumber? Timeline 00:00 Bart Charles joins the show 01:49 Housing, existing-home inventory & demand 04:18 Is the lumber market “strongly sideways”? 06:19 Coastal Hem-Fir vs. Inland pricing 09:52 Breaking down Hem-Fir and Spruce 13:54 Southern Yellow Pine market update 15:13 Diesel prices, trucking & freight costs 17:03 Where does the lumber market go from here? 19:24 Gregg: The market is “sharply sideways” 21:05 Forward pricing & futures opportunities 23:01 Are buyers willing to pay Q1 premiums? 29:48 Supply reductions, demand & price risk 31:25 Mortgage rates and housing affordability 32:33 Tight inventory and replacement costs 34:28 Are traders still short lumber? 35:09 Short opportunities in Southern Pine 37:03 “Sharply Sideways” becomes the episode theme 39:33 Why getting too long—or too short—could hurt 39:51 Locking in Q1 margins 40:15 Why there’s no good inventory hedge right now 41:12 The “O’Hare Hedge” Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com Guest Bart Charles BCharles@shamrockbm.com
Is the lumber market finally trying to put in a bottom—or is this just another bounce before seasonal weakness takes over? This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, and Charles break down the latest action across SPF, Southern Yellow Pine, Hem-Fir, studs, and CME lumber futures. The guys discuss the growing disconnect between September futures and the cash market, the possibility of taking delivery against September, and why some buyers may want to start covering needs rather than waiting for the perfect bottom. Charles takes a deep dive into Southern Yellow Pine, where sharp price swings, tighter production control, freight volatility, and execution risk are making the market increasingly difficult to trade. The conversation also turns to Southern timberland, falling pulpwood demand, mill closures, and what cheap Southern fiber could mean for lumber production longer term. Then Ashley raises a bigger question: Who is really the smart money in lumber today—the industry or the funds? The guys examine how large systematic and trend-following funds can stay with positions far longer than physical traders expect, ignore traditional ideas like cost of production, and potentially push lumber much farther in either direction than the industry thinks makes sense. The episode wraps with signs of bottoming in futures, narrow Southern Pine, SPF dimension and studs, the possibility of a trading bounce into September expiration, and where November futures could run into resistance. Timeline 00:00 – Opening, Lumber Word merch & potential Traders Market appearance 02:50 – Cash market update and seasonal weakness 04:20 – September vs. November futures and the cash/futures discount 06:30 – Could taking September CME delivery make sense? 08:00 – Is SPF beginning to find a trading bottom? 09:00 – Stud values and major relative-value opportunities 11:10 – Southern Yellow Pine: 4-inch strength and shrinking discount windows 12:45 – Pine volatility, freight costs and huge moves in wides 14:00 – How well is the CME Southern Pine contract tracking cash? 15:45 – Short covering or the beginning of a real market bounce? 20:00 – Why buyers with business on the books may want to start covering 22:00 – Market headwinds: tariffs, mortgage rates and housing demand 25:30 – Seasonal weakness, freight risk and the importance of execution 28:20 – "No edge, no hedge" and finding an advantage in today's market 32:15 – What is happening to Southern U.S. timberland? 33:20 – Cheap Southern fiber, pulp mill closures and long-term implications 38:45 – Industry vs. funds: Who is really the smart money? 40:00 – Why large funds can push lumber beyond industry expectations 42:10 – Cost of production, shutdown economics and lost Canadian production 43:15 – Bottoming signals across futures, Pine, SPF and studs 44:30 – November futures resistance and the September/November spread 46:00 – Closing thoughts Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
The lumber market is getting interesting again—and the signals aren’t exactly lining up. Ashley, Gregg, and Matt break down a market where demand remains “punky,” western species flailing, studs are showing slight signs of life after deep counters, and lumber futures are trading at a steep discount to cash. The big question: Is November lumber really headed toward $500—or is the futures market getting too bearish? Gregg lays out the technical case for why $500 is at least possible, while Matt sees real value developing at current levels and argues that some of the best buying opportunities may be showing up right now. Meanwhile, Ashley asks the question every trader should be asking: Where is the edge? The guys dig into forward pricing, inventory strategy, hedging when the board is at a discount, Canadian tariffs, shrinking contract business, and why 2027 could bring more open-market buying—and potentially more volatility. The takeaway? This probably isn’t the market to be a hero. Stay liquid, turn inventory, buy value, sell the overvalued stuff, and be ready when the market finally shows its hand. 1.Timeline 00:00 — Episode #180: What’s the market telling us? 01:37 — Housing demand remains “punky” 05:00 — Western species bounce and the buying starts 09:20 — Can lumber really rally into the fall? 11:45 — Is November futures getting too cheap? 14:25 — Forward lumber pricing and the opportunity for buyers 17:00 — Where is the edge in today’s lumber market? 18:10 — September/November futures positioning 19:30 — The $500 lumber bomb gets dropped 21:25 — Canadian tariffs, mill economics and supply 25:00 — Should buyers start putting out aggressive Q4/Q1 numbers? 26:45 — How do you manage inventory if lumber falls to $500? 29:00 — Carry less inventory, hedge actively and stay opportunistic 30:20 — What happens if November trades at a huge discount to cash? 33:00 — Could 2027 bring fewer contracts and more open-market buying? 37:30 — Less contract business could mean more volatility 40:15 — Looking ahead to the 2027 lumber market 44:40 — Ashley’s lesson: You can get long faster than you think 46:35 — The low-inventory strategy heading into fall 49:00 — What lumber items still have value—and liquidity? 50:20 — $500 lumber: prediction or just a possibility? 52:25 — Are studs signaling the next cash-market rally? 53:45 — Matt’s game plan: If cheap 2x4 shows up, buy it 53:55 — Southern Yellow Pine starts bouncing off the lows Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
The lumber market has cooled off — but has it found a bottom? This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt and Charles break down a market where you can seemingly “sell as much lumber as you want and not make any money.” Eastern SPF has taken a serious haircut, studs are showing signs of life, Southern Pine has firmed from its lows, and low inventories throughout the supply chain could make the next move happen fast. The crew digs into SPF, Southern Pine, Doug Fir, studs, 2x4 and 2x6, where real business is trading, and whether the recent bounce is the beginning of something — or just another short-lived rally in a seasonally softer second half. They also tackle the bigger picture: ugly housing data, mortgage rates, Treasury debt buybacks, CME futures versus cash, forward Q4 business, and what potentially opening more federal land to logging could mean for western sawmills and timber owners. But the real conversation is about risk. Why are people selling forward business below acceptable risk? When should you walk away from an order? Is the market already too short? And after a strong first half of 2026, should traders be shrinking inventory and waiting for the next real opportunity? Matt sums it up: don’t buy or sell in a panic. Charles warns against the market’s “false sense of security.” And the crew debates whether every rally between now and year-end may be an opportunity to sell. Less inventory. Less risk. Better decisions. And don’t sell the bottom. Another unfiltered hour of lumber markets, trading strategy, housing, futures and plenty of Lumber Word banter. Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com er market has cooled off — but has it found a bottom? This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt and Charles break down a market where you can seemingly “sell as much lumber as you want and not make any money.” Eastern SPF has taken a serious haircut, studs are showing signs of life, Southern Pine has firmed from its lows, and low inventories throughout the supply chain could make the next move happen fast. The crew digs into SPF, Southern Pine, Doug Fir, studs, 2x4 and 2x6, where real business is trading, and whether the recent bounce is the beginning of something — or just another short-lived rally in a seasonally softer second half. They also tackle the bigger picture: ugly housing data, mortgage rates, Treasury debt buybacks, CME futures versus cash, forward Q4 business, and what potentially opening more federal land to logging could mean for western sawmills and timber owners. But the real conversation is about risk. Why are people selling forward business below acceptable risk? When should you walk away from an order? Is the market already too short? And after a strong first half of 2026, should traders be shrinking inventory and waiting for the next real opportunity? Matt sums it up: don’t buy or sell in a panic. Charles warns against the market’s “false sense of security.” And the crew debates whether every rally between now and year-end may be an opportunity to sell. Less inventory. Less risk. Better decisions. And don’t sell the bottom. Another unfiltered hour of lumber markets, trading strategy, housing, futures and plenty of Lumber Word banter. Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
The lumber market just dropped roughly $100 in three weeks - but is the selloff creating the next big buying opportunity? In Episode #178 of The Lumber Word, industry veteran Sig Thoma joins Ashley, Gregg, and Matt for a wide-ranging conversation about what's really happening beneath the surface of the lumber market. Inventories are getting lean, cash prices are falling well below published levels, and CME lumber futures are carrying a major discount. Sig brings a broader perspective to the conversation, including a fascinating look at a massive lumber buyer whose sheds were nearly empty - a sign that the industry may be running much leaner than many realize. The crew dives into Southern Yellow Pine, Canadian SPF, Western species, OSB, European lumber, housing and mill profitability. Sig explains why the OSB market has effectively become two different markets, with dramatically different pricing between the U.S. South and West. Then the conversation gets deeper. Why aren't more sawmills using CME lumber futures to lock in profitable sales? Could increased futures participation improve price discovery across the entire lumber industry? And could a transparent U.S.-based futures market eventually become part of the argument surrounding Canadian anti-dumping duties and how lumber's true market price is established? Sig also breaks down the housing problem: mortgage applications have fallen sharply from their June highs, new-home sales remain well below historical peaks, and affordability continues to constrain demand. The episode finishes with a fascinating discussion about pulp capacity and something most lumber buyers rarely think about: sawmill byproducts. Chips, sawdust, shavings and residual values can materially change sawmill economics - and losing pulp outlets could ultimately influence lumber production itself. Is this simply an August lumber correction - or is the market setting up for its next major trade? Timeline 00:00 - Lumber drops roughly $100 & the CME discount 06:00 - Cash lumber, mill pricing & where buyers are hiding 10:40 - Sig's incredible look at extremely lean inventories 14:25 - Southern Yellow Pine economics & Canadian SPF losses 15:00 - Sig breaks down the strange OSB market 17:20 - European lumber arrivals & Eastern SPF 20:00 - Western species vs. CME futures 21:00 - Why aren't more sawmills using lumber futures? 25:00 - Forward pricing opportunities & multifamily 27:00 - Where could the lumber market finally bottom? 29:20 - What happens if you actually take CME delivery? 31:00 - Sig on futures culture & changing the lumber industry 32:20 - Housing, mortgage applications & affordability 35:50 - Southern sawmills, pulp capacity & mill economics 39:45 - Canadian lumber duties delayed 41:00 - Could CME pricing challenge the anti-dumping argument? 44:00 - Manufacturing, tariffs & deglobalization 46:30 - A wild real-world CME delivery story 48:15 - Sig closes with a classic story & market warning Keywords Lumber Market, Lumber Prices, Sig Thoma, CME Lumber Futures, Lumber Futures, SPF Lumber, Canadian Lumber, Southern Yellow Pine, OSB Prices, Housing Market, Mortgage Rates, Sawmills, Lumber Duties, Anti-Dumping Duties, Softwood Lumber, Lumber Trading, Building Materials, Wood Products, Lumber Industry, The Lumber Word Podcast
This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley Boeckholt, Gregg Matt, and Charles welcome Kyle Little, COO of Sherwood Lumber and Immediate Past Chair of NAWLA, for an in-depth conversation on one of the biggest changes in the lumber industry's premier trade organization. Kyle explains how NAWLA is opening its 2026 Traders Market in Anaheim, CA, November 4-6, to the broader wood products industry, making networking, education, and collaboration more accessible than ever before. The discussion also explores the association's long-term vision and why these changes could reshape industry relationships for years to come. The crew then shifts to today's lumber market—covering lean inventories, Southern Yellow Pine pricing, Western species, Canfor's Fox Creek closure, multifamily housing demand, futures positioning, and the trading opportunities emerging from historically wide species spreads. Whether you're a trader, sawmill, distributor, dealer, builder, or housing professional, this episode delivers practical market intelligence you can use immediately. Episode Timeline 00:00 – Welcome Kyle Little & NAWLA updates 03:00 – Why NAWLA is opening the Traders Market 12:00 – Wood Basics, leadership development & networking 19:15 – Current lumber market conditions 22:45 – Lean inventories and housing demand 25:00 – Southern Yellow Pine outlook 28:00 – Western species, production & wildfire discussion 33:30 – Doug Fir vs. SPF vs. Southern Pine trading opportunities 37:45 – Bullish and bearish market picks 43:00 – Best buying opportunities in today's lumber market 46:45 – Interest rates, housing & what comes next 51:00 – Sherwood Lumber updates and final thoughts Guest Kyle Little, COO, Sherwood Lumber KLittle@sherwoodlumber.com NAWLA: North American Wholesale Lumber Association 2026 Traders Market Information If you want to meet with the top companies and individuals in the industry, this is a must-attend! https://nawla.org/events/tradersmarket Matt Bruno: Executive Director, NAWLA MBruno@nawla.org Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
The lumber market may feel quiet, but beneath the surface, major forces are shaping the second half of 2026. In Episode 176 of The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down slowing summer activity, surprising housing data, Canadian production cuts, Southern Yellow Pine trends, and why lumber futures remain one of the industry's most underused risk management tools. Plus, the crew dives deep into species spreads, pricing opportunities, and what separates great lumber traders from everyone else. Timeline 00:00 – Summer slowdown or just a seasonal pause? 05:30 – Housing starts surprise the market: supply vs. demand 13:00 – Canadian curtailments, fiber shortages & wildfire impacts 17:00 – Southern Yellow Pine futures and managing price risk 25:00 – Why the panel is hedging lumber futures today 31:00 – Species spreads: SPF vs. Doug Fir, Hem-Fir & Southern Pine 35:00 – Why traders love the 'in the weeds' market discussion 39:00 – How great lumber traders are developed—and why training still matters
The lumber market may feel quiet—but beneath the surface, major shifts are taking place. In Episode #175 of The Lumber Word, Ashley Boeckholt, Greg Riley, Matt Beymer, and Charles DeLaTorre discuss why the current market could be setting up for its next significant move. The crew breaks down Canadian SPF, Southern Yellow Pine, Western species, and why inventory positioning may matter more than ever heading into late summer. Matt shares insights from the Inland Lumber Producers Conference, highlighting how market conditions have become highly regionalized across North America. The conversation also pays tribute to three respected industry leaders whose retirements mark the end of an era in the lumber business. Other topics include: • Is SPF 2x4 the cheapest value in North American lumber today? • Could Western Spruce reach $700 by Labor Day? • Southern Yellow Pine supply, production cuts, and inventory trends • Why mills still aren't chasing production despite stronger pricing • Forward pricing opportunities and why buyers remain cautious • Canadian shipment trends and what they signal for the second half of 2026 • The importance of mentorship, relationships, and reputation in the lumber industry Whether you're a lumber trader, sawmill executive, wholesaler, retailer, builder, or simply follow North American wood products markets, this episode delivers practical market intelligence and industry insight you won't want to miss. Simple Timeline 00:00 – Episode 175 begins and current lumber market overview 02:00 – Why SPF 2x4 appears undervalued compared to other lumber products 06:00 – Customer visits, building relationships, and selling opportunities 07:00 – Matt's recap of the Inland Lumber Producers Conference 09:45 – Honoring retiring lumber industry leaders 17:30 – Mentorship and why relationships define long-term success in lumber 18:00 – Southern Yellow Pine market update with Charles 20:00 – Western species, Douglas Fir, Hem-Fir, and current trading conditions 23:00 – Distribution inventories, buying strategies, and market positioning 25:45 – Forward pricing opportunities and why buyers remain hesitant 27:00 – Dimension lumber discussion: 2x10s, 2x12s, and seasonal production trends 33:00 – Canadian production, stud mills, and profitability 37:00 – Pulp markets, fiber supply, and residual economics 39:30 – Canadian shipment data, inventory outlook, and what's next for the lumber market.
Russ Taylor of Russ Taylor Global returns to The Lumber Word for a deep dive into one of the most fascinating lumber markets in years. The crew discusses shrinking North American production, tightening inventories, Canadian export trends, Southern Pine pricing, mill profitability, tariffs, transportation, and why supply—not demand—continues to drive prices. With production capacity permanently removed across North America and limited ability to quickly restart mills, the panel explores whether higher prices are here to stay into late 2026. If you trade, manufacture, distribute, or simply follow the lumber industry, this episode delivers market intelligence you won't want to miss. Timeline 00:00 – Soccer banter before shifting into lumber markets. 02:00 – Current SPF and Southern Pine market conditions and regional pricing. 08:00 – Russ Taylor reviews Canadian production and export data. 15:00 – Mill profitability, duties, tariffs and North American cost structures. 21:00 – Why supply constraints are outweighing demand. 28:00 – Southern Pine production, logistics and trucking challenges. 34:00 – Wood chip markets, pulp demand and byproduct economics. 35:30 – 30-, 60- and 90-day market outlook and pricing expectations. 41:00 – Canadian shipments, tariff timing and closing market outlook. Guest: Russ Taylor WWW.russtaylorglobal.com Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com
Episode Summary Episode #173 welcomes returning guest Mike Wisnefski of Westline Capital for an in-depth discussion on the evolving lumber market. The panel explores lessons from the Southern Pine Conference, why the CME Southern Pine futures contract could benefit from monthly expirations, and how better participation could improve liquidity. Mike shares how private equity ownership is changing sawmill decision-making, while the group examines why Western and Eastern lumber markets have tightened despite mixed economic headlines. The conversation also dives into inventory strategy, options pricing, reload capacity, trucking, and the growing importance of disciplined risk management. Finally, the hosts debate housing policy, builder demand, infrastructure, and why regional economics continue to drive long-term lumber consumption. This episode offers practical insights for wholesalers, retailers, mills, traders, and anyone following the North American lumber industry. Timeline 00:00 – Introductions, Chicago sports, and welcome back to Mike Wisnefski. 02:00 – Southern Pine Conference recap—networking, collaboration, and supply chain partnerships. 04:00 – Private equity ownership of sawmills and changing mill economics. 05:30 – Future of the CME Southern Pine futures contract and ideas for improving liquidity. 10:00 – Cash settlement, delivery points, and regional pricing challenges. 15:00 – Western lumber market strength, improving order files, and species updates. 18:00 – Dimension shortages, 2x10 pricing, and shifting production patterns. 20:00 – Eastern market tightness, European imports, and shrinking inventories. 25:00 – Housing legislation, permitting challenges, and rebuilding constraints. 31:30 – Regional migration, affordability, and long-term housing demand. 34:00 – Inventory strategy, reload economics, and why distributors are regaining value. 40:00 – Options pricing, risk management, and disciplined trading strategies. 44:00 – Closing thoughts on market structure, hedging opportunities, and the second-half outlook. Guest: Mike Wisnefski from Westline Capital Strategies Inc. MikeW@westlinecapital.com Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
Matt Layman returns to The Lumber Word for an in-depth discussion on one of the hottest topics in the lumber industry: the summer lumber rally. With inventories running lean, freight markets tightening, and mills extending order files, the crew explores whether lumber prices still have room to run. The conversation begins with a recap of the Southern Pine hedging seminar hosted by StoneX and Westline Capital, where attendees discussed the future of lumber risk management, liquidity challenges, and why more companies need to gain hands-on experience using futures markets. The group then shifts to the cash lumber market, breaking down strength in SPF, Southern Yellow Pine, Hem-Fir, and Douglas Fir. Matt shares what he's seeing in the Pacific Northwest, while Gregg and Ashley discuss supply constraints, delayed shipments, trucking shortages, and why buying lumber is becoming harder than selling it. They also analyze the latest housing starts data, debate whether demand is stronger than many expect, and discuss how lean inventories throughout the supply chain continue to support higher prices despite widespread economic pessimism. Plus: freight disruptions, rail delays, inventory management, futures trading lessons, Elon Musk, SpaceX, and Ashley's outlook for where lumber prices may be headed through July and beyond. If you're a lumber dealer, wholesaler, manufacturer, builder, trader, or investor looking to stay ahead of the market, this episode is packed with actionable insights. Topics Covered Lumber Market Outlook SPF Lumber Prices Southern Yellow Pine (SYP) Hem-Fir & Douglas Fir Markets Lumber Futures & Hedging Freight & Trucking Costs Rail Service Challenges Housing Starts Analysis Inventory Management Lumber Industry Economics SpaceX & Market Psychology Summer 2026 Lumber Rally Timeline 00:00 – Matt Layman Returns to The Lumber Word 03:00 – Southern Pine Futures, Hedging & Market Participation 07:00 – Risk Management: How Lumber Companies Should Think About Futures 15:00 – Trading Lessons: Winning, Losing & Market Discipline 16:00 – SPF, Hem-Fir & Douglas Fir Break Higher 21:00 – Is Southern Yellow Pine Finally Joining the Rally? 27:00 – Housing Starts: What the Headlines Missed 30:00 – Elon Musk, SpaceX & Economic Optimism 34:00 – Ashley's Bullish Case for Lumber 38:00 – Freight Bottlenecks, Rail Delays & Inventory Shortages 44:00+ – Why Buying Lumber Is Harder Than Selling It Episode Takeaway The lumber market continues to be driven by one simple reality: inventories remain too low while supply struggles to keep up. Despite negative sentiment around housing and the economy, buyers continue to chase wood, mills are extending order files, and freight remains a major constraint. The panel agrees that the path of least resistance for lumber prices remains higher until inventories are rebuilt and supply catches up. Guest: Matt Layman www.laymansguide.com Matt@laymansguide.com Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
The lumber market may be sending its clearest signal of 2026: supply is shrinking, inventories are lean, and futures are leading the charge higher. In Episode 171, the crew welcomes industry veteran Kip Fotheringham for a deep dive into the forces reshaping North American lumber markets. From tightening SPF supply and Southern Yellow Pine transportation challenges to Canadian curtailments, futures fund short covering, and the surprising resilience of housing demand, the group lays out the bullish case that's beginning to unfold. They debate whether we're in the first inning or the third inning of a larger rally, examine why major funds are potentially abandoning short positions, and discuss how shrinking production capacity could collide with steady demand to create a much tighter market through the summer. The conversation also explores Berkshire Hathaway's investment in homebuilding, multifamily construction strength, pulp mill closures, fiber supply challenges, and the Longview explosion's potential impact on Western sawmill production. If you're a lumber buyer, trader, mill operator, or builder, this episode offers a roadmap to the risks—and opportunities—developing beneath the surface of today's market. Timeline 00:00 – Lumber, Airports & Industry Reach Portland Airport gets a surprising shoutout, and the crew shares a story highlighting how The Lumber Word continues to influence industry conversations. 03:30 – Are We Early in a Bull Market? The panel debates whether the lumber rally is just getting started and what buyers should be doing right now. 07:00 – Transportation Becomes the Story Escalating trucking costs and regional supply constraints are changing how lumber moves across North America. 09:00 – Canada's Supply Problem Gets Real Discussion on curtailments, mill economics, and why North American production continues to shrink. 15:00 – Why This Summer Feels Different The crew explains why inventory positions, contract reductions, and tariff pressures have created an unusual setup. 22:00 – The Longview Explosion & Fiber Fallout A major disruption in the Pacific Northwest raises new questions about residual markets and future sawmill production. 25:00 – Smart Money is Buying Housing Berkshire Hathaway, Japanese investors, and multifamily construction all point toward longer-term confidence in housing demand. 30:00 – Funds Are Covering Shorts Kip breaks down what the futures market is signaling and why short-covering could fuel a larger move higher. 35:00 – What Could Derail the Rally? The group examines the biggest risks to their bullish outlook and what buyers should watch over the next 30 days. 44:00 – Final Take: Bullish Until Proven Otherwise The episode wraps with a discussion on shrinking supply, steady demand, and why the market's biggest surprise may still be ahead. Guest: Kip Fotheringham Lumber Trader and Market Expert KipF@telus.net Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
This week on The Lumber Word, the crew tackles the biggest issue in lumber today: freight. From Buffalo reloads buried under railcars to Southern Pine mills struggling with transportation costs, the conversation centers on how logistics—not mill prices—are driving the market. The team discusses tightening inventories, shrinking North American supply, species substitution, and why prompt wood may be worth more than ever. Gregg doubles down on his bullish lumber outlook, while the group debates whether SPF is significantly undervalued heading into the second half of 2026. If freight remains tight and supply stays constrained, the market could be setting up for a stronger move than many expect. Timeline 0:00 – Back From the Road – Travel stories, reload visits, and market observations. 2:00 – Buffalo Is Jammed – Railcars are arriving fast and unloading slowly. 5:00 – Chicago Reload Expansion – New capacity could become a major advantage. 7:00 – Freight Is the Story – Higher trucking costs are changing lumber economics. 11:00 – Pine Mills Hit the Brakes – Transportation issues may be limiting production. 15:00 – Contract Pricing Gets Tested – Suppliers are absorbing freight pain. 18:00 – Rail vs. Truck – Why transportation knowledge is becoming a competitive edge. 23:00 – Greg's Bull Case – Less supply, steady demand, and higher prices ahead. 29:00 – Prompt Wood Wins – Inventory ready to ship is commanding a premium. 32:00 – Lean Pipelines Everywhere – Buyers may be more undercovered than they realize. 35:00 – Second Half Setup – The crew sees more reasons for lumber to rise than fall. Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
The crew breaks down a lumber market that feels calm on the surface but is getting tighter underneath. Trucking is a disaster, inventories stay lean, mills are not panicking, and buyers still have not adjusted. 0:00-4:00 - College kids, Waymos, and bad decisions after midnight 4:00-9:00 - SYP stabilizes but trucking wrecks pricing 9:00-15:00 - Freight market insanity and disappearing trucks 15:00-22:00 - Spruce stays steady while inventories thin out 22:00-28:00 - Canadian curtailments and supply fears build 28:00-34:00 - Reloads emptying and buyers still underbought 34:00-39:00 - Futures, no hedge, and bullish summer bets Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
This week on The Lumber Word, Matt, Gregg, Ashley, and guest Mike Wisnefski from Westline Capital Strategies break down one of the most interesting lumber markets in years. The crew discusses low volatility, lean inventories, seasonal strength, futures market psychology, pine versus spruce pricing, multifamily demand, and why the next major lumber move could happen fast. The episode also explores European lumber markets, supply chain transparency, and current housing market realities. Timeline 0:00 – Intro & Mike Wisnefski joins 1:45 – Market feels split 4:10 – Western lumber floor 7:30 – Seasonal market trends 12:00 – Curtailments & duties 15:20 – Futures pessimism 17:30 – Housing & multifamily 22:45 – Volatility discussion 27:00 – Inventory strategy 29:00 – Pine vs spruce 35:30 – Europe market insights 39:30 – Quarterly pricing 42:00 – Final market outlook Guest: Mike Wisnefski from Westline Capital Strategies Inc. MikeW@westlinecapital.com SYP June 2026 SYP StoneX Southern Yellow Pine Lumber Risk Academy June 9, 2026-June 10, 2026 Information and Registration for the SYP Hedging Academy https://stonex.cventevents.com/event/SYPLRA2026/summary Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down one of the more confusing lumber markets in recent memory. Despite fears coming out of Montréal, buyers haven’t really changed behavior, trucking is slowly improving, and distributors are still moving wood. The crew dives deep into the widening divide between Southern Pine and Western species, shrinking production, freight chaos, inventory strategy, and whether the market is quietly building the foundation for higher prices later this summer. The big question: are we in equilibrium… or on the verge of another squeeze? Timeline 0:00 – 3:00 — Market recap after Montréal, trucking loosens up, buyers still active 3:00 – 6:00 — Southern Pine weakness vs strong 2x6 demand across Western species 6:00 – 10:00 — Inventory turns, mills running less 2x4, and distributors staying busy 10:00 – 15:00 — Housing data surprises to the upside and Gregg explains why he’s leaning bullish 15:00 – 20:00 — Canadian market softness vs tight U.S. Western supply 20:00 – 27:00 — Risk management, shrinking spreads, and why nobody wants to speculate 27:00 – 33:00 — Freight volatility and the challenge of quoting future delivered business 33:00 – 40:00 — Pine finding a bottom, species spreads, and what could trigger the next move higher Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com ne of the more confusing lumber markets in recent memory. Despite fears coming out of Montréal, buyers haven’t really changed behavior, trucking is slowly improving, and distributors are still moving wood. The crew dives deep into the widening divide between Southern Pine and Western species, shrinking production, freight chaos, inventory strategy, and whether the market is quietly building the foundation for higher prices later this summer. The big question: are we in equilibrium… or on the verge of another squeeze? Timeline 0:00 – 3:00 — Market recap after Montréal, trucking loosens up, buyers still active 3:00 – 6:00 — Southern Pine weakness vs strong 2x6 demand across Western species 6:00 – 10:00 — Inventory turns, mills running less 2x4, and distributors staying busy 10:00 – 15:00 — Housing data surprises to the upside and Gregg explains why he’s leaning bullish 15:00 – 20:00 — Canadian market softness vs tight U.S. Western supply 20:00 – 27:00 — Risk management, shrinking spreads, and why nobody wants to speculate 27:00 – 33:00 — Freight volatility and the challenge of quoting future delivered business 33:00 – 40:00 — Pine finding a bottom, species spreads, and what could trigger the next move higher Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
This week’s episode breaks down a confusing lumber market where price prints don’t reflect reality. Southern Pine appears to be selling off, but much of the move is driven by rising and volatile freight costs rather than true demand weakness. Inventory remains tight in many regions, while buyers hesitate due to bearish sentiment and futures discounts. Meanwhile, multifamily construction continues to support demand, even as overall housing trends flatten. The result is a fragmented, regional “island market” where logistics—not supply—are dictating price. Timeline (Condensed) 0:00 – Market Setup: Weak tone on paper, post-Montreal reset 2:00 – Pine Selloff = Freight Story: Prices down, driven by trucking costs 5:00 – Cash vs Futures Disconnect: Strong Western pricing vs discounted board 10:00 – Supply Constraints: Euro down, Canada tight, limited new supply 15:00 – Housing Demand: Flat overall, multifamily supporting pine 20:00 – Fragmented Market: Regional “islands,” no easy arbitrage 25:00 – Relative Value Trades: 2x6 vs 2x4 spread, board looks cheap 30:00 – Buyer Behavior Shift: Late buying driving higher freight 35:00 – Key Takeaway Trades: Futures and select items show opportunity Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
Summary Recorded during Montreal Wood Convention week with Kip Fotheringham, this episode breaks down a confusing but strong lumber market. Truck demand is hot, rail is lagging, and inventories are being drawn down while big buyers stay just-in-time. Euro supply is tightening, tariffs remain a wildcard, and mills still aren’t making money—keeping supply in check. The big question: Is this market about to roll over… or keep grinding higher? Timeline 0:00 – Market confusion + SYP volatility 2:00 – Truck vs rail market split 4:00 – Inventory drawdown strategy 6:00 – SPF strength + tight supply 8:00 – Euro supply dropping off 12:00 – Tariffs (AR6 → AR7) breakdown 15:00 – Mills still losing money 18:00 – Logistics driving everything 25:00 – Macro + economy check 27:00 – SYP gaining market share 38:00 – Futures shifting (contango → tighter) 46:00 – Just-in-time buyers vs distributors Guest Kip Fotheringham kip@telus.net Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles are joined by Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors, a bestselling author, and one of the most sought-after voices in macroeconomics today. When markets get noisy, Brian’s the guy cutting through it with data and conviction. The crew dives into the macro forces shaping lumber—from government spending and the “K-shaped” economy to housing completions, freight spikes, and regional demand shifts. They break down why affordability is still broken, what’s driving trucking chaos, and whether strong Southern demand can carry the market forward. Plus—how AI, migration trends, and policy decisions could reshape housing, labor, and the broader economy. If you want to understand where lumber demand is heading (and why), this one delivers. Timeline 00:00 – Brian Wesbury joins + macro setup 03:30 – Taxes, migration & policy shifts 08:30 – Government spending vs affordability 14:00 – Housing completions & demand outlook 16:00 – Freight spikes & supply chain issues 18:30 – Southern vs Northern demand 24:00 – The “K-shaped” economy explained 30:00 – Growth, incentives & middle class 41:00 – AI, jobs & future risks Guest Brian S. Wesbury Chief Economist / First Trust www.ftportfolios.com Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
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Observed September 5, 2026. Cached outside the daily freshness window; the positions keep the date they were taken on.
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