5 in 5 with ANZ

Oil prices slump 8% overnight on signs the US and Iran want to end their conflict. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hike today, but will it do more? And Australian house prices are falling, and not just in Sydney and Melbourne. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why oil prices could spike if conflict escalates in the Middle East after this week’s US mid-term elections. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets bracing for a ramping up of the Iran conflict after this week’s US mid-term elections, that could push oil prices over US$120 barrel. Taiwan’s growth beats forecasts. And the Bank of Japan holds. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at two big themes – global economic resilience and worries about fiscal sustainability, particularly in the US. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The ECB holds rates, as expected, but President Christine Lagarde resigns unexpectedly. US growth and inflationary pressures strengthen, heaping pressure on the Fed to hike in December. And New Zealand business confidence remains resilient. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin analyses what’s next for the Fed after this week’s rate hold. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Fed holds rates in a 10-to-2 vote - markets still see a hike in December. The RBNZ unexpectedly holds and sends the NZ dollar tumbling. Bank of Thailand also holds - but that one was expected. In our deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner explains why the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to keep hiking after yesterday’s surprise hold. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets firm ahead of the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow - expected by the market to be a hold. And in Australia today, attention is on Q3 inflation data for clues on whether the RBA will hike next week. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk outlines ANZ Research’s latest Australian house price forecast revisions. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Reserve Bank of Australia is signalling its discomfort with high inflation, which has increased market expectations for a rate hike next week. South Korea is expected to report strong GDP growth. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani previews the UK Budget due tomorrow night and how British bond, or gilt, markets might react. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil rises on fears of renewed strikes on Iran, before or after next week’s US mid-term elections. Markets expect the Fed to hold this week. And ANZ Research tweaks its call for New Zealand’s cash rate, bringing forward a hike to December from February. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, explains why Taiwan is expected to report GDP growth of 13% later this week, and how intra-regional trade in Asia is surging. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks fall overnight on AI valuation fears, oil jumps with talk of new strikes on Iran, and bond yields fall on safe haven buying. The Philippines hikes rates more than expected. And New Zealand inflation falls, but not enough to stop a rate hike next week. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Matthew Galt analyses how New Zealand’s house prices are tracking against measures of market fundamentals. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks rise on talk of a SpaceX/Tesla merger. Bank Indonesia holds rates. Bank of Korea is set to do the same, but a hike is expected in the Philippines. And New Zealand inflation data due today is set to stay above target. In our deep dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Kausani Basak analyses what’s behind Vietnam’s strong growth and whether it can continue. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Australian inflation expectations tick up as confidence ticks down. Bank Indonesia should hold today but faces pressure to hike. And the People’s Bank of China holds rates as it looks to support bank margins. In our deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Senior Economist Miles Workman has analysed how oil shocks have affected New Zealand’s economy since 1975. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

China’s GDP growth beats forecasts, but a record high trade surplus remains an issue globally for trading partners. ANZ Research raises its US dollar forecast and still sees a Fed hike next week. And New Zealand’s services sector expands — just. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes unpacks a surprising disconnect this year in the usually close link between global economic output and fuel demand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

China is expected to report flat GDP growth, with signs of state spending to achieve Beijing’s growth targets for 2026. And New Zealand’s inflation is slightly above forecast, before another rate hike expected next week. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari explains the unusual strength in gold prices at the same time as higher bond yields: investors are worried about fiscal sustainability risks. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US Producer Price Inflation data is much hotter than expected, but yields fall on flight to quality as AI stocks fall. Pressure comes off the RBA to hike in November as the jobs market softens, although ANZ Research says a hike is still more likely than not. In our deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner reviews how New Zealand’s recovery is tracking via ANZ Research’s Truckometer index. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Fed rate hike expectations rise for October on stronger September inflation data. China’s producer prices jump on higher oil, but consumer price inflation remains subdued. And Singapore holds monetary policy. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou reviews China’s bumper September trade data and the health of its trade relationship with the US. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets await key US inflation data for clues on the Fed’s next move. And Reserve Bank of Australia minutes are hawkish enough for ANZ Research to keep expecting a November hike. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga reports back from a recent trip to India. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices rise 2% as Donald Trump’s plan for a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia fails to stick. The Reserve Bank of India adds to its currency market intervention toolkit. India’s inflation rate surges. And the Kiwi dollar hits a 15-year low. In our deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, analyses Malaysia’s Budget. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

New attacks on Saudi Arabia over the weekend are the worst in a decade, threatening to widen the Middle East conflict. The Reserve Bank of India moves to shore up the rupee. And New Zealand diesel costs are set to rise. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim analyses the costs and risks from the Reserve Bank of India’s previous interventions to encourage foreign capital inflows. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices surge as much as 5% on new supply fears. Fed minutes indicate more hikes to come. France’s Government faces a crunch week of budget debates. And Taiwan’s exports surge on AI demand. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how Singapore is facing up to global inflation pressures and rising bond yields. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Reserve Bank of India hikes rates as higher energy prices feed into the economy. Japanese wages rise again, which is supporting the Bank of Japan’s tightening. And Taiwan is set to hike rates after an inflation surprise. In our deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner reviews the latest ANZ customer card spending data for clues on how the Kiwi economy is performing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Australian consumer confidence drops in the week when the Reserve Bank of Australia hikes, but the labour market is resilient as job ads grow. And business price indicators ease in New Zealand in a good sign for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. In our deep dive, interview ANZ FX Analyst Kausani Basak explains how the El Nino weather pattern is set to affect inflation in the Philippines. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/