Macro Mondays

ndreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to challenge one of the biggest narratives in markets: that the AI boom is simply another dot-com bubble waiting to burst. They break down why today's AI investment cycle may be fundamentally different from the late 1990s, and what that means for tech stocks and the broader market outlook. They also unpack the latest political surprise involving Brazil's Lula and the implications for emerging markets, before turning to renewed EU–China trade tensions and what another escalation could mean for global trade, European industry, and investors. 🏆 The Real Vision Trading is now open! The best trade ideas on the platform compete for $80,000 in cash. 📈 Trading League: https://realvision.com/your-future?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=2026_uyf&utm_content=macro-mondays Timestamps: 00:00 - Anthropic IPO Filing: What It Reveals About the AI Buildout 02:41 - AI vs Dot-Com: Why the Comparison Still Doesn’t Hold 05:54 - Why Higher Rates Are Forcing AI to Prove ROI Now 08:15 - Big Tech Earnings: Can Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft Calm Credit Markets? 09:32 - GPU Rental Prices Are Rising — and That Changes the AI Bear Case 12:33 - Is Anthropic Running Out of Compute? 15:22 - Anthropic IPO: Could It Pull Capital Away From the Mag 7? 16:42 - Where to Position If the Fed Finally Acknowledges Tight Financial Conditions 18:33 - Has the Market Already Priced in the End of the AI Boom? 19:19 - Brazil Election Shock: Lula Wins and Markets Get Hit 22:08 - Israel Election: Why Policy Toward Iran May Not Change Much 23:50 - EU vs China: Europe Escalates the Trade War 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno of Steno Research is flying solo on this week's Macro Mondays, breaking down the latest inflation signals and what they mean for the market outlook. With energy prices and input costs rising, is another inflation shock on the horizon, and could Kevin Warsh be focusing on the wrong inflation measure? Andreas also examines the latest business cycle data, why he's not ready to turn bearish on equities just yet, and what renewed pressure in France's bond market could mean for European investors. 🏆 The Real Vision Trading is now open! The best trade ideas on the platform compete for $80,000 in cash. 📈 Trading League: https://realvision.com/your-future Timestamps: 00:00 - France Is Burning — But Is the Market Panic Overdone? 02:30 - French Bond Stress: Why Credit Markets Are Turning on France 04:23 - AI Credit Stress: Is the Data Center Buildout Finally Breaking? 05:14 - Extreme Fear, Record Hedging, and the Midterm Setup 07:30 - Why This AI Selloff Is More Fundamental Than the Last Ones 08:26 - Hot CPI and PPI — So Why Did Bond Yields Fall? 09:38 - Positioning Is Crowded: Bonds, Energy, Dollar, and AI 11:30 - Inflation Peak Ahead? Why October Could Be the Turning Point 14:35 - Are the Mag 7 Really About to Cut AI CapEx? 15:41 - Compute Prices Are Rising — and That Changes the AI Bear Case 18:04 - DeepSeek Banned From US Government Systems: A New AI Trade War? 20:12 - Hiking Cycles, Credit Stress, and the Timing of the Next Trade 21:05 - Why Inflation and the Midterms Could Set Up a Q4 Rebound Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf #macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #realvision 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to tackle the question that matters most for markets right now: are we still mid-cycle, or are the warning signs of a late-cycle economy starting to pile up? They also head to Europe, where surging French bond yields, political uncertainty, and renewed concerns over the country’s finances are putting pressure on French assets. Is the turmoil a genuine warning for investors — or exactly the kind of dislocation you should be buying? Plus, Andreas and Mikkel revisit purchasing power parity and ask how useful PPP really is when trying to figure out where currencies should trade. The markets are wide open right now. Crypto, AI, entire sectors repricing. You don't need a finance degree to play anymore. You just need someone to hand you the map. That's Real Vision. The place where the best minds in macro and crypto break down what's moving, with the research, tools and community to help you make your own calls. 🏆 The Real Vision Trading is now open! The best trade ideas on the platform compete for $80,000 in cash. Register before October 15 to secure your spot. 📈 Trading League: https://realvision.com/your-future Timestamps: 00:00 - Macro Mondays October 5, 2026 00:22 - Mid-Cycle or Late-Cycle? The Big Macro Question 02:14 - GDP vs PPP: Is Russia’s Economy Really Smaller Than the UK’s? 05:15 - Why Energy and Food Self-Sufficiency Matter More in a Crisis 07:21 - Iran War Update: Why Oil Flows Are Better Than Before the War 10:56 - Can a Democratic Midterm Sweep Derail the AI Buildout? 14:32 - ISM Services Miss: Is the US Economy Starting to Slow? 17:55 - France in Turmoil: Are Markets Pricing in Too Much Political Risk? 20:39 - Marine Le Pen, French Bonds, and Why France Could Be a Buy 26:09 - Mid-Cycle vs Late-Cycle: Will Central Banks Kill the Expansion? 29:01 - Dollar Strength, Hormuz, and the April-Style Setup Returning #macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Apologies for the late upload! We cover the inversion of the yield curve and what that tells us about the business cycle and the outlook for equities. We also discuss the impasse in US-Iran negotiations and the US-China summit. 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to ask whether markets are beginning to resemble the setup we saw in March. With the Fed having hiked, yields elevated, and oil moving lower, are the conditions falling into place for another leg higher? They also unpack the new U.S.–Denmark–Greenland agreement and what it means for the shifting geopolitical picture in the Arctic, before diving into the recent crypto rally to see whether it really has legs. 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps: 00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold 00:22 - Crypto Is Ripping: Should Investors Rotate Out of AI? 03:05 - What’s Really Driving the Crypto Rally? 04:31 - Why AI and Crypto Could Work Together in the Agent Economy 08:23 - Why Markets Are Starting to Look Like March and April Again 11:47 - Trump-Xi Summit: Chips, China, and the Next Trade-War Test 15:20 - South Korea Exports Surge as the Semiconductor Boom Reaccelerates 18:09 - Greenland Deal: What the US, Denmark, and NATO Actually Got 22:08 - Semiconductors vs Gold vs Crypto: The Best Q4 Setups 23:43 - Iran, Hormuz, and Why We May Be Past Peak Escalation #macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #markets #investing #stocks #stockmarket 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to discuss several key macro signals that are potentially shifting all at once. They dig into the outlook for oil flows, whether a new hiking cycle is starting to emerge, and what it all means for the risk-on trade. Be sure to check out the Steno Nowcasting Dashboard for the latest signals on growth, inflation, and liquidity, only on Real Vision! 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision: https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps: 00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold 00:07 - Are We F*cked? AI, Inflation, Oil, and Rate Hikes 02:25 - Dario Amodei’s AI Warning: Is the AI Boom About to Slow? 05:22 - Why AI CEOs May Be Hedging Political Risk Ahead of the IPOs 09:18 - Could the US Government End Up Backstopping the AI Buildout? 11:07 - Hardware vs Software: Who Loses If AI Development Slows? 15:23 - Fed Preview: Why a September Rate Hike Now Looks Likely 17:03 - Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Latest Oil Supply Shock 20:32 - Oil Above $100? Why Markets May Already Be Pricing the Worst 22:32 - What Kevin Warsh Could Signal After the Rate Hike 24:18 - What Usually Happens to Stocks After the Fed Starts Hiking? 25:39 - Why the Dollar Could Still Be the Trade to Fade 27:52 - Fed vs Global Central Banks: Why the US May Hike Less Than Everyone Else #macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to unpack Kevin Warsh’s surprisingly hawkish message at Jackson Hole and what it could mean for markets. They also turn to the latest escalation in the Middle East following U.S. attacks on Larka Island. Is the war restarting, and could renewed geopolitical risk disrupt the market setup just as investors were beginning to embrace the bull case? 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps: 00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold 00:23 - Kevin Warsh Turns Hawkish: Should Investors Pull Back on Risk? 02:01 - What Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Really Changed 03:31 - PCE vs CPI: Which Inflation Signal Should the Fed Trust? 06:22 - Warsh vs Bessent: The Battle Over Rates and Bond Yields 08:58 - September Rate Hike: Is the Market Overreading the Fed? 13:04 - Why One Rate Hike Probably Won’t Kill the Business Cycle 15:17 - US Strikes Larak Island: Is the Iran War Restarting? 16:46 - Strait of Hormuz, Crack Spreads, and the Next Inflation Trade 21:12 - South Korea Exports vs ISM: The AI Boom Is Still Running Hot 24:01 - Jobs Report Preview: Why Weak Payrolls May Not Stop the Fed 25:54 - ECB vs Fed: Why the Short-Dollar Trade Still Works #macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #realvision 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to ask whether Friday’s stock market rally marks the return of a more bullish macro setup, and how far this move could run. They break down Scott Bessent’s latest intervention in bond markets and what it could mean for yields, the U.S. dollar, and global liquidity. Plus, they dig into the intensifying Anthropic vs. OpenAI battle and ask whether markets are getting another dose of “Warsh hopium” after Friday’s price action. 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps: 00:00 - Are We Finally Back? 00:59 - Bitcoin and Gold Start Moving Again 02:25 - Why the Debasement Trade Is Back 03:24 - What Treasury Buybacks Actually Do 04:53 - The TGA Changes the Liquidity Story 05:29 - Why Bank Liquidity Matters for Markets 07:19 - How Much Liquidity Could Treasury Add? 09:42 - Hedge Funds Become the Marginal Treasury Buyer 11:35 - Is This Sustainable for Bitcoin and Gold? 12:19 - Temporary vs. Permanent Liquidity 14:02 - How Big Could Bessent’s Buybacks Get? 16:46 - Andreas’ Weaker-Dollar Portfolio Setup 18:03 - OpenAI vs. Anthropic 24:14 - Iran, China, and the Geopolitical Spillover 28:06 - What Could Kevin Warsh Say at Jackson Hole? 29:07 - The Most Important Macro Chart Right Now 30:06 - Is the Fed About to Turn Less Hawkish? #macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #markets #investing #stocks #stockmarket #fed #bonds #treasuries #usdollar #dxy #liquidity #openai #anthropic #interestrates #trading #realvision #scottbessent #kevinwarsh #federalreserve 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back for another episode of Macro Mondays, boiling down the latest topics, from why the Fed may still be overreading inflation risks to why Donald Trump ordered a pullback on military exercises in South Korea. Plus, Andreas lays out his favorite trades for the current macro regime. 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps: 00:00 - Goldilocks Is Back? Why Growth and Inflation Are Finally Aligning 05:02 - US Consumer Strength vs Record-Low Sentiment: What’s Really Going On 10:41 - Why the Fed Could Be Wrong-Footed by Falling Inflation 13:07 - Four Reasons US Inflation Is Cooling Faster Than Expected 18:45 - Could Goldilocks Change the Midterm Election Outlook? 19:36 - Trump, South Korea, and the Growing Risk to Asia’s AI Supply Chain 22:08 - High-Bandwidth Memory, China, and the US Export-Control Problem 24:31 - Micron, Memory Stocks, and Why the AI Trade May Still Be Early 26:34 - The Best Macro Trade Now: Own Inflation Where the Fed Can’t See It 29:31 - Why a Weaker Dollar Could Unlock the Next Leg of the Rally #macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitics #markets #trump #jobs #korea 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to unpack a seemingly contradictory macro setup, with the economy running hot despite slowing jobs growth and fading inflation. They break down Andreas’ latest convictions on where we are in the business cycle, and whether Kevin Warsh and the Fed are misreading the setup. 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps: 00:23 - CPI Preview: Is Inflation Falling Faster Than Expected? 01:11 - Why Tariff Refunds Could Keep US Inflation Low 05:28 - Oil, Hormuz, and Why the Energy Shock Looks Over 09:21 - Fed Rate Hikes: Is Kevin Warsh Misreading the Inflation Setup? 12:22 - Jobs, Growth, and the World Cup Hangover 14:33 - Is the US Business Cycle Approaching a Peak? 18:17 - South Korea Semiconductor Exports: The AI Signal to Watch 20:19 - Why Slower AI Growth Could Still Be Bullish for Chip Stocks 22:33 - Hyperscaler CapEx: When Does the AI Spending Boom Actually Slow? #macromondays #macro #markets #investing #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #federalreserve #kevinwarsh #businesscycle #interestrates #markets #finance 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down a dramatic start to the week, beginning with the rare coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention to support the yen and what the market reaction says about currencies, rates, and the future of the carry trade. They Unpack Donald Trump’s decision to postpone planned strikes on Iran in favor of renewed talks, and examine the implosion of Leopold Aschenbrenner’s highly leveraged AI hedge fund and what this means for the AI trade. Let Monarch do your financial 'spring cleaning' for you! Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50. 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps: 00:00 - Monarch 01:23 - US Intervention to Support the Yen: What Markets Need to Know 04:45 - Why the US Stepped Into the Japanese Yen Market 06:03 - Iran Talks Resume as Trump Calls Off Planned Strikes 07:32 - The Sinus-Wave War: Why Markets Are Panicking Less 08:49 - Oil Flows, Strait of Hormuz, and the Risk Premium Fading 11:16 - What Trump Really Needs From a New Iran Deal 14:07 - Inflation Is Falling Faster Than the Fed Realizes 18:40 - Strong PMI, Higher Real Rates, and the Momentum Selloff 19:48 - Microsoft vs Alphabet: The AI CapEx Accounting Divide 22:21 - Why Memory Chips Could Be More Valuable Than GPUs 24:56 - Inside Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Hedge-Fund Implosion 26:08 - Global Macro Opportunities and Why the Dollar Could Weaken #macromondays #macro #markets #investing #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to examine the latest market topics, from how Kimi AI's breakthrough is reshaping the AI investment narrative to how escalations between the U.S. and Iran are reshaping energy markets. And what of Donald Trump's renewed accusations against China? Andreas and Mikkel get into it all. 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps: 01:30 - Kimi AI Shock: Has China Taken the Lead? 02:28 - Kimi K3 vs ChatGPT and Claude: What the Benchmarks Really Show 05:30 - Why China’s AI Catch-Up Could Boost Hardware Demand 08:22 - Software vs Semiconductors: Who Actually Loses From Cheaper AI? 14:39 - Momentum Crash: What Triggered the Sell-Off in AI Stocks? 16:43 - Iran War Escalates as the IRGC Rebuilds Its War Chest 21:24 - How Long Can the US Withstand the Oil Supply Disruption? 23:45 - Why Oil Is Unlikely to Break Above $100 Again 28:06 - Semiconductors, AI Infrastructure, and the Next Portfolio Opportunities #macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back with the latest Macro Mondays to discuss the latest escalation in the Middle East and what the impact might be; a slowdown in Korean chip exports and what it tells us about the health of the AI trade; and a worrying new trend in the U.S.-China rivalry. Monarch is the personal finance app that tracks everything – accounts, investments, savings, and spending. Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50. Today’s sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you’re a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500’s user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you’ve been looking for. Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com . Trading in futures involves the risk of loss. 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps: 00:22 - Strait of Hormuz Crisis Returns: Should Markets Worry? 02:24 - Trump Wants the US to Control the Strait of Hormuz 03:53 - Oil Flows, Dark Tankers, and the Real Supply Risk 06:12 - How Long Can the US and China Cover the Oil Shortfall? 08:29 - Jet Fuel, Diesel, and the Inflation Risk Markets Are Missing 10:22 - CPI Preview: Could Inflation Surprise Sharply Lower? 15:23 - Memory Stocks, Semiconductor Demand, and the AI CapEx Boom 19:18 - South Korea Exports: Has the Memory Trade Finally Peaked? 22:58 - ASML Earnings and the Next Test for AI Stocks 24:42 - US-China Decoupling, Critical Metals, and the Dollar Trade 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to tackle one of the biggest questions in markets right now: have central banks misread the macro backdrop? They break down why inflation may be falling faster than policymakers expect, whether investors are once again wrong on oil, and discuss the political and economic implications of the FIFA World Cup. 00:22 - Macro Mondays: Inflation, Oil, Korea, and the Memory Trade 03:41 - Inflation Is Rolling Over Faster Than Markets Expect 08:17 - Oil Outlook: Why the Hormuz Shock Never Became a Crisis 10:19 - Strait of Hormuz Bypass Trade and China’s Oil Buying Strike 13:03 - Why Iran Has Already Lost Leverage Over Hormuz 20:48 - Meta, AI Compute Demand, and Why CapEx Isn’t Slowing Down 22:57 - Korea Exports, HBM Demand, and the Next Leg of the Memory Trade 26:44 - Samsung Earnings, Hynix Listings, and What Comes Next for AI Stocks #macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitics 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back in an episode of Macro Mondays that covers why everyone is wrong-footed on U.S. dollar positioning, what the latest developments in the U.S.–Iran ceasefire are, and previews a consequential week for markets ahead, packed with Manufacturing PMI, Nonfarm Payrolls data, and Kevin Warsh's speech. Let Monarch do your financial 'spring cleaning' for you! Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50. 🔥 Our Biggest Sale Ever, Don't Miss the Generational Setup realvision.com/pricing 00:22 - Macro Mondays Returns: Dollar, Hormuz, and Kevin Warsh Preview 03:01 - June Winners and Losers: Memory Stocks, Biotech, and the Dollar 05:11 - Is the Hormuz War Back On or Is Oil Still Flowing? 09:11 - Is Everyone Wrong on the US Dollar? 13:34 - Kevin Warsh’s Big Test: Will the Fed Pivot Again? 17:42 - Jobs Report Preview: Why Payrolls Could Surprise Lower 20:32 - How to Position Your Portfolio Heading Into Summer Vacation 23:30 - AI Trade Check-In: Token Prices, Micron, and Memory Demand 27:30 - Apple, China Memory Chips, and the Next Consumer Scarcity Risk #macromondays #realvision #andreassteno #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitcs #macro 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno is back flying solo again to answer the question that matters most for markets right now: Is the oil still flowing? Andreas examines what we actually know about energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, how oil markets have responded, and why the feared supply shock never materialized. 01:00 - Macro Mondays: Is the Oil Still Flowing? What Markets Need to Know 03:22 - Strait of Hormuz Reopens? What the Shipping Data Really Shows 05:25 - Oil, Jet Fuel, and Fertilizer Prices Are Rolling Over Fast 07:51 - Falling Inflation Changes the Entire Macro Regime 09:24 - Why Central Banks Still Haven’t Caught Up to the Disinflation Shift 13:17 - Anthropic Export Curbs and the New AI Arms Race 17:51 - SpaceX IPO Mania and What It Says About Risk Appetite 19:55 - IPO Boom, Liquidity, and Why This Cycle May Still Have Room to Run 22:45 - South Korea Exports and Why Semiconductors Still Look Strong 17:15 - Defining Therapeutics, Psychedelics, and the Next Big Micro Trade 19:35 - MicroStrategy, Bitcoin Risk, and What Actually Matters Now #macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno is back to break down recent market volatility, unpacking all the key drivers, from global liquidity dynamics to the evolving peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, which has seemingly opened the Strait of Hormuz. But is the deal actually done!? 00:07 - US-Iran Deal Nears: What It Means for Markets 02:00 - Inside the 60-Day Iran Deal and Strait of Hormuz Reopening 04:37 - Oil Market Surplus: Why Crude Could Fall Below $70 08:02 - Iran Sanctions Lifted: The New Supply Shock for Global Oil 10:56 - ECB Rate Hike Timing Looks Worse After Hormuz Breakthrough 13:17 - Anthropic Export Curbs: Why AI Models Are Becoming Too Big to Fail 17:51 - SpaceX IPO Surge and What It Says About Risk Appetite 19:55 - IPO Boom, Liquidity, and Why This Cycle May Have Further to Run 21:08 - AI Token Pricing, OpenAI, and Anthropic Ahead of IPO Season 22:45 - South Korea Exports, Semiconductors, and the Next Leg of the AI Trade 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down Red Friday and whether the market reaction to the latest jobs report was justified. They unpack what the data is really saying about growth, labor markets, liquidity, and the path for risk assets heading into summer. Timestamps: 01:05 - Macro Mondays: Red Friday, Jobs Shock, and Middle East Risk 03:15 - Real Vision Updates, Alpha Access, and This Week’s Schedule 05:40 - What Actually Caused Friday’s Market Selloff? 07:21 - Nasdaq Damage, CTA Flows, and Why the Straight-Line Rally Is Over 09:45 - Was Friday a VaR Shock and What Happens Next? 12:06 - The Jobs Report, World Cup Hiring, and Why Payrolls Beat Expectations 14:07 - Kevin Warsh, the Fed, and Why Rate Cuts Just Got Harder 17:38 - SpaceX IPO, Big Tech Equity Raises, and the Liquidity Squeeze 22:01 - The One Chart to Watch: AI Token Pricing and the Data Center Trade 24:37 - Iran, Israel, and Why Markets Still Aren’t Panicking 27:24 - Oil, Fertilizer, and Why the Hormuz Crisis Trade Keeps Fading #macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitics #markets #Iran #jobs 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the key macro themes driving markets into June. From the latest developments in Iran to bottlenecks and bitcoin, they unpack what could become the next key trades, and whether liquidity and macro data can continue to support the meteoric rise in risk assets. Let Monarch do your financial 'spring cleaning' for you! Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50. 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe 01:06 - Macro Mondays: Iran Talks, ISM Strength, and June Trade Ideas 02:30 - State of the Union Preview: Why Macro Still Drives Everything 04:34 - Strong ISM Print and Why US Manufacturing Keeps Accelerating 06:00 - Iran Talks Break Down Again: How Fragile Is the Ceasefire? 07:30 - Why Markets Are Still Taking the Iran Headlines in Stride 10:16 - How Long Can the Global Economy Handle a Closed Hormuz? 12:34 - June Outlook: Thematics, Trade Setups, and What Still Works 13:20 - Industrial Robotics, Real-World AI, and the Next Training Bottleneck 16:54 - Liquidity in June: Treasury Cash Drawdown and Easier Leverage 20:19 - Why Bitcoin Is the Only Risk Asset Not Joining the Rally 22:53 - Three Trades for June: Security Software, Server Makers, and Drones 27:19 - Claude, ServiceNow, and the New AI-Driven Momentum Trade 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Real Vision’s Mikkel Rosenvold and Andreas Steno Larsen break down the latest market reaction to reports of a possible Strait of Hormuz deal, what it could mean for oil and inflation, and why the next phase of the market may depend on whether Middle East tensions truly de-escalate. They also explore a surprising inflation driver in hardware and semiconductors, explain why consumer spending is holding up better than many expect, and share the sectors they’re watching next. 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps: 00:00 - Monarch Sponsor 01:00 - Macro Mondays: Iran, Hormuz, and Global Markets 01:31 - Strait of Hormuz Deal Rumors and Market Reaction 02:50 - Europe’s Heat Wave and the Energy Debate 04:21 - Trump, Iran, and the Weekend Negotiation Push 06:01 - Can Trump Sell an Iran Deal to Republicans? 07:12 - Abraham Accords, Iran, and Middle East Strategy 07:59 - Oil Drops, Bond Yields Fall, and Markets Rally 09:11 - Are Iranian Ships Actually Moving Through Hormuz? 10:58 - Why Markets Care More About Hormuz Than Politics 13:03 - Inflation Outlook: Energy vs Consumer Prices 14:20 - Kevin Warsh, AI, and the Disinflation Argument 17:45 - Which Sectors Benefit Most From Inflation? 18:45 - Why AI Hardware Is Suddenly Inflationary 21:08 - The AI Memory Boom and Rising Electronics Prices 23:39 - Why Hardware Stocks Have Outperformed in 2026 24:02 - What Happens if Inflation Peaks in June? 25:20 - Consumer Spending Is Holding Up Surprisingly Well 27:01 - Amazon, Tesla, and Luxury Stocks as the Next Trade 28:11 - PCE Inflation Data: What Markets Need This Week 29:28 - Final Thoughts: Waiting on the Iran Deal 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf