Total Money Management

Steve and Tom are flying without Jacob this week, covering the week ending 16 October 2026. They open with the French supermarket chain whose freezers went from minus five to fifty degrees, blamed on a cyber attack and actually caused by software nobody bothered to update, then the Norwegian army’s Hertz hire cars and what the data trail says about how little of modern life we actually control. From there: French borrowing costs at their highest since 2002 with debt near 300 percent of GDP and no eurozone bailout coming, why Australia’s government debt is among the lowest in the developed world and what that means for an economy leaning on private borrowing, unemployment ticking up to 4.6 percent, and an ASX that has gone precisely nowhere all year. The second half is the one to stay for. Steve walks through John Templeton’s dynamic allocation framework: more in stocks when markets are cheap, less as they get expensive, and what that implies with the CAPE sitting at 42. Plus why ugly and cheap usually beats comfortable and expensive, why rebalancing needs a cash buffer, and the Brazil trade that took four years to go nowhere. There are charts this week, so grab the document in the show notes. Signals & Noise Premium: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/offers/UoT6mohZ/checkout Find your investor personality: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Enneagram-types Everything else: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/ Questions: support@totalmoneymanagement.com.au This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

Reports of a plague in Russia, Europe and China in a trade standoff, and the Middle East pulling in more players. Then the question we get most: how do you invest when the CAPE is 42? Steve, Tom and Jacob look at Australia's recession risk, government deficits and falling Gold Coast rents. They finish on timeframe, volatility and action, and why buy and hold is not the only way to be long term.In this episode:Reports of a pneumonic plague outbreak in Russia, and France in the headlines againEurope asking China to cut car exports, and what comes nextThe Saudi, Turkey and Pakistan pact and the HouthisWhy Steve thinks Australia is heading toward a recessionProperty, investor equity and falling rents on the Gold CoastHow to think about investing when the CAPE is 42Using simple rules, like the 200-day moving average, to think about drawdownsNext week: Templeton's market-cycle diagram and a deeper dive into short, medium and long-term strategiesWork with us:The Three Wells framework: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/The-Three-Wells-CCThe TMM Wealth Journey, 12 months of portfolio building: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Direct-Landing-PageSignals & Noise Premium, the full weekly issue and Weekly Video Review, $9.99 per week: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/offers/PrbobKT9/checkoutFree investor personality test: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Enneagram-typesLeave a review to help us grow.This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Views expressed are opinions on current events, not recommendations. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

The RBA has raised rates again, property owners are weighing whether to sell, and a listener is rebalancing heifers. Against that backdrop, Jacob and Steve go through a risk hierarchy special. They start with how the industry defines risk (volatility and age-based risk tolerance) and ask whether that definition holds up. From there they work through Bessembinder's research: a tiny share of US stocks has created most of the wealth since 1926, and the odds of consistently picking those winners are very low. They also cover ergodicity and Nassim Taleb's casino example, why a 50% loss needs a 100% gain to recover, how the CAPE ratio and valuations shape how much you put into any market, and why defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare and energy have historically been steadier than growth. The theme throughout: building knowledge around not losing money, rather than chasing the win. In this episode: The RBA rate rise and what it means for property How the industry defines risk, and why it is questionable Bessembinder's studies on stock picking Ergodicity and why the path matters Sector rotation and defensive sectors The barbell approach to speculation This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

Is Australia exposed to a diesel supply shock? Why does Greenland matter to the US military? And are AI companies actually making money? In this week's Signals & Noise (week ending 25 September), we cover the Donroe Doctrine, oil price swings and Strait of Hormuz rumours, rising memory chip costs, and why the AI business model faces a compute problem. We also look at why markets spend roughly 75% of the time in a drawdown, what that means for cash and rebalancing, and why the S&P 500 is close to setting the longest secular bull market on record on 20 October. 👉 FREE MASTERCLASS: How to Build an Antifragile Portfolio | Wednesday 30 September, 7pm Brisbane time Register here: https://totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Webinar-Anti-Fragile This podcast is general information and education only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

Gold Coast broker Joel from Sunshine Finance joins Steve and Jacob to talk about the risks he sees on the lending front line, from property developments to private credit offers promising big returns. Joel comes from a construction background and says no before he says yes. He explains why commercial and asset finance rates move differently to home loans, why property development is riskier than it looks, and why any promised return needs a hard look at where it actually comes from. He also covers inflated loan applications, dealer finance where the repayments don't match the advertised rate, and what brokers without the right accreditations can mean for clients. We finish on what it all says about the cycle: rising fuel and living costs, stressed builders, and why cash flow and value matter more when markets get harder. Find Joel on Instagram: Joel.sunshinefinancebrokers This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

Masterclass link: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Webinar-Anti-Fragile 25 years since 9/11, and the Middle East is heating up again. Steve and Jacob break down the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, Iran's economic squeeze, and oil pushing toward $100 a barrel, then dig into why avoiding big drawdowns matters more than chasing the top, with CAPE sitting at 42 and Taleb's black swan lens applied to markets. Free live masterclass, How to Build an Antifragile Portfolio, Wed 30 Sept, 7pm AEST. Link in bio. Total Money Management, AFSL 568642. General information and education only, not financial advice. Does not consider your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Seek advice from a licensed advisor.

FREE WEBINAR LINK: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Webinar-Anti-Fragile?cid=7c7b1153-bccd-4fad-aef2-c3812804fe4a This week Steve, Tom and Jacob open with three headlines that are more connected than they look: Iran calling for resolution under the weight of sanctions and inflation, the link between immigration and wage suppression in Australia, and house prices falling across every capital city except Darwin. The CoreLogic numbers for August tell the story. Sydney down 4.7% for the quarter, Melbourne down 3.9%, and commentators now calling for falls of 10%. The quarterly picture is negative almost everywhere, and the annual gains in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide are shrinking fast. From there the conversation turns to one of the most misunderstood positions in investing: holding cash. Most investors feel like they are losing by sitting in cash, but it is the opposite. Cash equals options. It is exactly how Warren Buffett was able to extract a 10% preferred dividend and warrants at $8 from Bank of America during the GFC. That deal was only available to the person with the money when nobody else had any. Buffett made $500 million on the dividends alone. We also walk through why buy and hold fails when you measure returns across a full market cycle, from low point to low point. The secular bull from 1982 to 2000 delivered 666%. The bear market that followed wiped out 59% of it. Once you add fees, inflation and tax, the full cycle return was close to zero. And then the part that changes how most people think about property versus stocks: rebalancing. You cannot rebalance a house. If it falls 20%, you sit and hope. With a diversified stock portfolio you can harvest winners and add to losers, and the maths show that rebalancing turns a flat market into a positive return. We walk through the example with two assets, one up 25% and one down 20%, and show how the rebalanced portfolio gains over 5% while the buy-and-hold portfolio gains nothing. This is why we think stocks are a better long-term investment. Property will have its day, but over time the ability to rebalance between uncorrelated assets leads to higher compound returns. New episode out every Monday. If you are finding these useful, a follow on Spotify or a subscribe on YouTube genuinely helps us grow. Signals and Noise Premium: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/offers/PrbobKT9/checkout Free investor personality test: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Enneagram-types Follow on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0Sr60kq3V3q1mqiQPxiQ0l?si=d60ee47ccec54b81 More from TMM: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au Steve, Tom and Jacob Total Money Management This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642

150 episodes. Over three years of cutting through the noise together. To mark it, Steve, Tom and Jacob run through this week's biggest stories: new US sanctions on Iran and what they mean for oil, why Australia's fuel security is more fragile than the export numbers suggest, the real story behind US bond yields, and the US-Canada tariff standoff. They also dig into why private credit keeps making headlines and what a major builder collapse says about the sector. Then it's Watch Your Edge: why the stock market is such an expensive place to find out about yourself, how the Enneagram helps TMM coach clients through volatility, and why "trying harder" is often the worst response to a market that's moved against you. Thanks for three years of listening. Here's to the next 150. Join Premium here: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/offers/PrbobKT9/checkout This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

This week Steve, Jacob and Tom cover the shifting global order, why America is pulling back from being the world's policeman, and what that means for trade, tariffs and geopolitics. They also break down new bank lending data out of China, the risks building up in private credit and AI infrastructure financing, and why they remain cautious on the sector despite the hype. Closer to home, the guys dig into the Australian property market: why investor loans have dried up, what the end of negative gearing incentives on new builds really means, and why immigration is a lazy explanation for price growth. They finish with a reminder on why blanket statements about "average returns" in property and super are misleading, and why understanding the assumptions behind a forecast matters more than the number itself. Topics covered: The renegotiation of the global order and what it means for investors China's new bank loans and the state capitalism model Private credit, AI infrastructure debt and where the risk is building Australian property: investor loans, negative gearing and interest rates Why "average return" statistics can be misleading This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

Part 2 of the Anti-Fragile Investor. Steve Moriarty and Jacob Senior move from theory to practice, walking through Taleb's six operational principles, the barbell strategy, and why volatility drag makes one bad year worse than most investors realise. With CAPE at 42.5, the goal isn't to predict the next crash, it's to build a portfolio that benefits when one arrives. Companion paper: Join Signals & Noise (free weekly newsletter): totalmoneymanagement.com.au Take the investor personality assessment: totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Enneagram-types Join the S&N Premium community: totalmoneymanagement.com.au/offers/PrbobKT9 This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

Oil is swinging wildly as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate and Trump pushes for a deal. A $116 million crypto hack just hit cold storage wallets across 5,200 addresses. And a 25 year old "genius" fund manager just got wiped out after leveraging 40x into AI stocks, a case study in exactly what Buffett warned about decades ago. This week Steve, Tom and Jacob break down what's actually moving markets, why leverage is the fastest way to turn a good thesis into a bad outcome, and the real maths behind compounding your money (spoiler: it's slower than you think). Want the charts, the numbers and the full breakdown behind everything we cover on the show? Join the free Signals & Noise newsletter at totalmoneymanagement.com.au and get it straight to your inbox every week. If this episode was useful, the biggest favour you can do us is leaving a quick review. It genuinely helps more people find the show. This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

Markets can go sideways for ten or fifteen years. The CAPE ratio sits at 42. Global debt is stretched, and retail investors are piling into property, Bitcoin, and leveraged ETFs. So what happens next, and how do you position for it? In this special two-part episode, Steve Moriarty and Jacob Senior lay out an investment philosophy built to work through the entire market cycle, not just the good years. Drawing on Nassim Taleb's Incerto, the Kelly Criterion, and the risk-first thinking of investors like Ed Thorpe, Steve explains what separates fragile portfolios from robust ones, and robust ones from truly antifragile ones. You'll hear why the "time the market versus time in the market" debate is a false choice, the two scenarios Steve thinks are most likely from here (a GFC-style crash, or a Japan-style deleveraging that grinds asset prices lower over ten to twenty years), and how Taleb's three categories, coffee cups, weights, and everything in between, apply to the assets sitting in your portfolio right now. Part 2 will cover how to actually build the portfolio. If you want to think differently about your money, learn more about our approach at totalmoneymanagement.com.au, or take our free investor personality assessment at totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Enneagram-types to find out what kind of investor you are. This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

Oil just jumped 20% in a fortnight, the US market is priced for perfection, and Australian property looks like it has finally rolled over. Red flags are everywhere. Steve, Tom and Jacob run through the week that was: the broken ceasefire and the race toward nuclear, a market sitting 200% above trend with Buffett quietly selling, the private credit boom regulators are now worried about, and why 25 years of property gains may be ending. Then the part most people skip: how to keep your head when markets turn, using System 1 and System 2 thinking, a written plan, and a longer time frame. Free newsletter: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au Full show notes: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Episode145 Follow and leave a review to help us grow. General information and education only, not financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642

Steve, Tom and Jacob are back (with working microphones this time) to unpack a week where the cracks got harder to ignore. The Iran ceasefire has collapsed, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is running at a third of normal, and shipping insurance costs have jumped sevenfold. The lads explain why "oil" isn't one thing, why China's demand drop saved us last time, and why a genuine supply shock may still be creeping up on us. Then it's over to Korea, where the stock market swung wildly all week and the CAPE ratio has bolted from 17 to 44 in twelve months. Compare that with Indonesia, Brazil and Turkey sitting near 10, and the case for emerging markets and commodities starts to write itself. Plus: the AI earnings problem nobody wants to talk about, semiconductors now making up 20% of the S&P 500, what Buffett's IBM exit really tells us, and why margin debt at $1.5 trillion should have your attention. The title says it all: every country holds a chokepoint, and everybody's knackered. Watch Your Edge: markets can go sideways for 15 years or more. The era of quick capital gains is over, and the game is shifting to income and yield. Subscribe to the free Signals & Noise newsletter: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/ Want to go deeper? Join Signals & Noise Premium for weekly analysis, Stock Thoughts, and our monthly live coaching call. This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

Episode 143: A TMM Monologue The ceasefire didn't hold, and neither did the calm. This week Steve flies solo (audio only) with a look at what the renewed Iran-US conflict means for oil, helium and fertiliser supply, and why the uncertainty premium is back in commodity markets. Also in this episode: Debt is piling up on both sides of the ledger: margin lending, leveraged ETFs and an options boom, all while the CAPE sits at 42, four and a half standard deviations above trend. Steve explains why that combination calls for caution, not prediction. Military spending is booming across the US, Europe, Japan and Australia, and governments competing for copper, iron ore and aluminium is one more reason we like commodities, and especially energy, over the long term. The OECD says the Australian economy is in trouble. Steve pushes back on the doom narrative, looks at the productivity debate, and unpacks what falling house prices might really signal. Plus, in Watch Your Edge: buy and hold wasn't always gospel. When strawberries are $15 a punnet, you skip the strawberries. The same logic applies to overpriced markets, and holding cash while you wait is not missing out. Subscribe to the free Signals & Noise newsletter: totalmoneymanagement.com.au Want the charts, data and full analysis behind this episode? Join Signals & Noise Premium: totalmoneymanagement.com.au/offers/UoT6mohZ/checkout Not sure what kind of investor you are? Take the TMM investor personality assessment: totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Enneagram-types This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642

Buffett said if you can't manage your emotions, you can't manage your money. This week we prove him right. Steve, Tom and Jacob break down Howard Marks' Mastering the Market Cycle: the three stages of every boom and bust, why the CAPE at 42 stacks the odds against US stocks, and why you never need to pick the bottom. 🧠 What type of investor are you? Take the 2-minute quiz 👉 https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Quiz 📰 Free newsletter 👉 https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/ 📊 Signals & Noise Premium 👉 https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/offers/PrbobKT9/checkout General information only, not personal advice. Total Money Management, AFSL 568642.

Join Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior as they unpack the world of investing—from market moves and strategies to timeless principles and everyday money wins. Whether you’re just starting out or deep into your investing journey, we’re here to educate, challenge, and inspire. 🚫 Disclaimer: This podcast is provided by Total Money Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 568642) for educational purposes only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek independent advice before acting. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Subscribe to our free resources: 📰 The Week That Was – weekly market insights direct to your inbox:👉 ⁠⁠Sign up here⁠⁠: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com .... 📘 The Four C’s eBook – your guide to becoming a confident investor:👉 ⁠⁠Download free⁠⁠: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com .... 📲 Follow us on Instagram for daily tips, behind-the-scenes content & updates:👉 ⁠⁠@totalmoneymanagement⁠⁠ 🌐 Learn more: ⁠⁠ www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au ⁠

Join Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior as they unpack the world of investing—from market moves and strategies to timeless principles and everyday money wins. Whether you’re just starting out or deep into your investing journey, we’re here to educate, challenge, and inspire. 🚫 Disclaimer: This podcast is provided by Total Money Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 568642) for educational purposes only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek independent advice before acting. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.Subscribe to our free resources:📰 The Week That Was – weekly market insights direct to your inbox:👉 ⁠⁠Sign up here⁠⁠: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com....📘 The Four C’s eBook – your guide to becoming a confident investor:👉 ⁠⁠Download free⁠⁠: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com....📲 Follow us on Instagram for daily tips, behind-the-scenes content & updates:👉 ⁠⁠@totalmoneymanagement⁠⁠🌐 Learn more: ⁠⁠www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au⁠

Join Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior as they unpack the world of investing—from market moves and strategies to timeless principles and everyday money wins. Whether you’re just starting out or deep into your investing journey, we’re here to educate, challenge, and inspire. 🚫 Disclaimer: This podcast is provided by Total Money Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 568642) for educational purposes only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek independent advice before acting. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.Subscribe to our free resources:📰 The Week That Was – weekly market insights direct to your inbox:👉 ⁠⁠Sign up here⁠⁠: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com....📘 The Four C’s eBook – your guide to becoming a confident investor:👉 ⁠⁠Download free⁠⁠: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com....📲 Follow us on Instagram for daily tips, behind-the-scenes content & updates:👉 ⁠⁠@totalmoneymanagement⁠⁠🌐 Learn more: ⁠⁠www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au⁠

Join Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior as they unpack the world of investing—from market moves and strategies to timeless principles and everyday money wins. Whether you’re just starting out or deep into your investing journey, we’re here to educate, challenge, and inspire. 🚫 Disclaimer: This podcast is provided by Total Money Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 568642) for educational purposes only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek independent advice before acting. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.Subscribe to our free resources:📰 The Week That Was – weekly market insights direct to your inbox:👉 ⁠⁠Sign up here⁠⁠: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com....📘 The Four C’s eBook – your guide to becoming a confident investor:👉 ⁠⁠Download free⁠⁠: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com....📲 Follow us on Instagram for daily tips, behind-the-scenes content & updates:👉 ⁠⁠@totalmoneymanagement⁠⁠🌐 Learn more: ⁠⁠www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au⁠