Moving Markets

Strong earnings, improving shareholder returns, corporate reforms, and continued AI-related demand have reinforced the case for Japanese equities. But with a stronger yen and policy normalisation underway, can Japan's momentum continue? In this episode, Cheng Hin Saw, Head of Investment Specialists at Julius Baer, speaks with Louis Chua, Equity Research Analyst Asia, about the latest earnings season, the outlook for AI and the Japanese yen, opportunities beyond technology, and the structural drivers underpinning their constructive view on Japanese equities. (00:00) - Introduction (01:13) - Key highlights of a strong earnings season (03:19) - Why does management guidance remain conservative (04:26) - A pickup in earnings revisions (05:25) - Has the dynamic between yen and Japanese equities changed? (07:14) - Why are we still positive on AI? (08:16) - Japan’s position in the AI ecosystem (09:00) - Opportunities beyond AI (10:00) - The big narrative shift (10:44) - Why we remain constructive on Japan

Markets received a boost from stronger-than-expected economic data in Switzerland and resilient activity across the eurozone. In the US, dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller helped push Treasury yields lower and supported risk assets. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed to their highest levels in weeks amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. In today’s show, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses the outlook for the Japanese yen, gold and EUR/USD. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:34) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva (11:45) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity markets found their footing as oil prices and Treasury yields paused their recent rise, while US economic data and Fed commentary reinforced a resilient growth outlook. The Fed's Beige Book pointed to continued expansion, albeit with persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. Higher energy prices weighed on sentiment in Europe, while the yen strengthened on expectations of further Bank of Japan rate hikes. Gold gained after days of weakness on a weaker USD, and Asian equities were somewhat supported by renewed optimism around AI-driven chip demand. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, talks about the latest escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and whether oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:30) - Energy markets: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (11:31) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Renewed fighting in the Middle East sent oil prices and bond yields higher yesterday as gold lost its lustre and equity markets retreated. Inflation data in the eurozone did not help matters, rising to 3.3% in August, up from 2.9% in July. Markets are now pricing in a 25 basis point hike from the ECB next week, and concerns are mounting about whether the Fed will also raise rates in September. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins the podcast to discuss the elevated yield levels, Kevin Warsh's messaging, and how he believes bond investors could best position themselves in the current environment. (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (00:54) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:09) - Yields on the rise, fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income (10:20) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Renewed US-Iran tensions impacted global markets yesterday, pushing oil prices higher and weighing on equities. Bond yields rose, with Japan’s 10-year bond yield actually hitting 3% this morning for the first time since 1996. Tesla gained 5.5%, making it the best performer in the S&P 500 yesterday. Today’s key economic releases include US ISM manufacturing data, but the highlight will undoubtedly be Friday’s closely watched jobs report. Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research analyst, joins today’s podcast to talk about how intensifying competition in the AI space, particularly from lower-cost Chinese models, is driving AI token prices down, andwhat it all means for investors. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (05:55) - AI competition from China: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research (11:33) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, markets have repriced expectations for US monetary policy, with traders now assigning a 60% probability to a rate hike at the Fed's mid-September meeting. Meanwhile, Asian markets have started the week on the back foot, although they have recovered somewhat from their session lows. In today's episode, Chief Economist David Kohl discusses the outlook for US interest rates and the implications for investors. And Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his market perspectives and highlights the most compelling opportunities from a technical analysis standpoint. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:44) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:03) - Jackson Hole comments: David Kohl, Chief Economist (09:41) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (13:08) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

With yields at historically attractive levels and the yield curve offering attractive opportunities, fixed income is drawing renewed attention from investors seeking both income and capital preservation. But is the short end of the curve really as appealing as it seems—and what should investors know about the risks and rewards? In this episode, Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video at Julius Baer, is joined by Roman Frey, Head of CIO Office Global Fixed Income and voting member of the Fixed Income Investment Committee. Together, they explore why fixed income deserves a place in every portfolio, the importance of duration, credit risk, and liquidity, and how macroeconomic factors and central bank policy shape the opportunity set. The conversation covers the dynamics of the primary and secondary bond markets, the role of market technicals, and why short-dated bond strategies may offer a compelling alternative to cash and money market funds. Roman also discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve’s evolving communication style under Kevin Warsh, the practicalities of managing strategic cash, and why now may be a particularly attractive time to lock in yields. (00:00) - Introduction (01:28) - Is fixed income really boring? (04:39) - Understanding duration and credit risk (06:53) - Liquidity and the importance of the primary market (10:08) - Macroeconomic factors and central bank policy (12:40) - Market technicals and the impact of supply and demand (14:03) - Hyperscalers and the shape of new bond issuance (16:31) - Cash versus bonds—what investors should consider (20:34) - The Fed’s new communication style and implications for investors (23:08) - Is short duration the right approach now? (25:27) - What makes short-dated bond strategies attractive? (28:28) - Managing short-dated bonds: hold to maturity or switch? (29:48) - Risk and return trade-offs in short-dated strategies (32:21) - Investment horizon and the role of strategic cash (34:51) - Yield curve steepness and the roll-down effect (36:16) - Is now a good time to invest in bonds? (38:23) - Closing and legal information Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

NVIDIA added USD 442 billion to its market capitalisation yesterday, with gains spreading beyond chipmakers into software and cybersecurity stocks amid strong earnings releases. Political uncertainty and debt concerns weighed on French markets ahead of the country's first presidential debate yesterday evening. A two-year Japanese government bond auction saw relatively weak demand amid growing expectations of Bank of Japan tightening next month. Reports suggest Venezuela may leave OPEC, potentially weakening the organisation's influence. The focus today is on Kevin Warsh's highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech. What can we learn from past speeches by Fed presidents at Jackson Hole? Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses the USD debasement trade and what he is seeing in markets amid widespread claims surrounding the theme. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (07:06) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva (11:17) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets traded largely sideways ahead of the earnings release from NVIDIA, the world’s most valuable company by market capitalisation. After the US market close, the company once again exceeded expectations, delivering stronger-than-anticipated guidance and sending its shares more than 4% higher in after-hours trading. Elsewhere, US inflation data came in slightly above forecasts, prompting a modest rise in Treasury yields. In today’s episode, we welcome Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, to discuss the outlook for the copper market, the key forces shaping supply and demand, and where prices could be heading next. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (05:47) - Copper: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:03) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets found their footing yesterday despite an intensification of US sanctions on Iran, as traders focused on the shift towards economic rather than military pressure and the resulting decline in oil prices. Equity markets generally moved higher, led by gains in technology shares, while Germany’s stronger-than-expected economic growth figures added to the constructive backdrop. Attention now turns to today’s US inflation data and Nvidia’s earnings report, two events that could shape the market direction in the days ahead. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his views on Treasury buybacks, fiscal policy and the outlook for US yields and the US dollar, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, assesses whether recent moves in bond markets are beginning to influence equity valuations. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (06:58) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (11:20) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (15:19) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite ended Monday's trading session lower as chip stocks faltered, while the Dow Jones gained 0.25% on the day. It was a similar story in Asia this morning as investors digested the potential ramifications of 'Operation Economic Outcast', while awaiting not only Nvidia's and Marvell Technology's results and US PCE data tomorrow, but also a highly anticipated speech by Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole this Friday. Damien Ng, Next Generation Research, joins the podcast today to provide his take on the good news last week from the Moderna/Merck cancer trials. Tune in to the podcast to find out why he believes that innovation-driven healthcare remains one of the most compelling long-term investment opportunities. (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (07:07) - How personalised vaccines could transform cancer treatment: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research (12:23) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Stronger-than-expected US PMI data could not save equities from a down week as rising bond yields and the Treasury's bond-buying intervention renewed dollar debasement fears, fuelling a blistering rally in gold and Bitcoin. Trade tensions returned as US-Canada talks collapsed over the weekend, and investors brace for a pivotal week featuring NVIDIA earnings and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole address. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, looks at the recent US dollar weakness from a technical perspective and what it means for other asset classes. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (01:06) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (07:03) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:58) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The Q2 earnings season delivered a strong set of results, with positive surprises across sectors and regions. As investors look ahead to the remainder of the year, the broadening of earnings growth and market participation is creating opportunities beyond the dominant AI and technology themes. In this episode, Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about the key takeaways from the Q2 earnings season. They explore sector performance, forward guidance provided by companies, the ongoing strength of the AI investment cycle, and the implications of increased competition and monetisation in AI. The conversation also covers the importance of diversification, and how investors can position portfolios for a broader and potentially more volatile market environment into year end. (00:00) - Introduction (00:47) - Key takeaways from Q2 earnings season (02:01) - Sector performance shows broadening growth (03:08) - Forward guidance (04:12) - Evidence of broadening returns (05:13) - The health of the AI investment cycle (06:37) - Volatility in AI-related stocks (07:54) - Monetisation of AI investments (09:18) - Impact of lower cost AI models (10:44) - The case for diversification beyond AI (12:03) - Alternatives to AI across sectors and regions (13:30) - Closing remarks and legal information Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets largely dipped yesterday as geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices and disappointing guidance from Walmart weighed on investor sentiment. After yields fell on Wednesday following the announcement from the US Treasury of doubling buybacks of longer-term debt, yesterday they resumed their upward trend, even after Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested further increases to the buyback programme. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins the show today to talk about the impact of the Treasury’s announcement on the US dollar, and he also shares his latest thoughts on precious metals. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (05:45) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva (10:21) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The US Treasury provided a boost to bond and equity markets yesterday, announcing that it will more than double repurchases of 10, 20, and 30-year debt in the next few months. This saw the long bond yield fall 10 bps from its 19-year high on Tuesday, to 5.184%. Gold had its best day since March. US stock markets also closed up on the day with Moderna and Merck providing a boost. Asian equity markets continued the rally overnight and the KOSPI leapt over 6% after SK Hynix announced a big stock buyback. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the podcast today to talk about gold and silver. Tune in to find out what he believes has been driving the August rally, and whether he thinks it can continue from here. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:49) - Gold and silver: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (11:21) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

A global bond sell-off sent yields to multi-year highs, dragging equities lower as tech stocks bore the brunt amid persistent inflation concerns. Yet Bank of America's fund manager survey reveals remarkably bullish positioning, with investors reducing cash and piling into equities on hopes of a soft landing and faith in the AI boom. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his views on the latest bond selloff and the drivers behind the move. We also speak with Nenad Dinic from our Equity Strategy Research team about European equities and where he sees opportunities in the region as we head into year end. (00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (07:04) - Fixed income amid higher long-term US Treasury yields: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income (10:35) - European cyclicals: Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research (15:24) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Higher oil prices and rising bond yields weighed on equity markets, pushing global stocks lower at the start of the week. US Treasury yields remained in focus as strong corporate bond issuance added to concerns over US fiscal deficits. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence remained a standout theme, with Anthropic's rapid growth boosting sentiment across the sector. Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research, takes a closer look at AI, noting that record investment by hyperscalers and institutional investors continues to support strong demand for AI infrastructure. Investors are increasingly focused on when that spending will translate into earnings and cash flow. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:08) - Institutional investing in Artificial Intelligence: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research (11:06) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global market performance was mixed last week, with Japanese equities emerging as the standout winner, driven by strong gains in technology and semiconductor stocks. Meanwhile, oil prices surged around 6% amid renewed geopolitical tensions, and longer-term government bond yields moved higher despite softer-than-expected signals from US inflation and consumer data. In this episode, we are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his latest insights on the recent weakness in both the US dollar and the Swiss franc. He also explains why he remains constructive on precious metals and discusses the key market trends investors should be watching in the weeks ahead. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (01:16) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (07:03) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research (09:53) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

With Korean semiconductor stocks down nearly 50% from their June peak, has the AI correction finally run its course? Where could the next leg of the AI rally come from, and how are China’s cheaper AI models — including DeepSeek’s rumoured new release — reshaping the competitive landscape? Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, on these latest developments in AI, as well as the broader market themes driving China and global markets — including the rotation back into value names, China’s growth outlook ahead of the fifth plenum, the new Renminbi government bond futures listing in Hong Kong, and the sharp rebound in gold and silver. (00:00) - Introduction (00:29) - Has the AI stock correction bottomed out? (03:03) - Sectors to watch in the next leg of the AI rally (05:57) - China’s competitive AI models (09:52) - The China internet/hyperscaler rally — can it continue? (12:00) - China’s economic outlook and policy direction for H2 (16:37) - AI vs non-AI: what drives the next rotation? (19:28) - Thoughts on the listing of Chinese government bond futures in Hong Kong (21:25) - Gold and silver: has the recovery arrived?

US equities continued their upward climb this week, supported by a series of encouraging inflation releases, while European stocks have taken a breather after hitting record highs earlier in the week. In fixed income markets, government bond yields moved lower as investors scaled back expectations for rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Joining us today is Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, who shares his latest outlook on the energy market and explains why he continues to expect oil prices to trend lower in the months ahead. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:24) - Energy market update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (11:52) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.