The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Recent episodes

1. Lessons Learned - Geopolitical Cousins from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

   Jul 31, 20261 hr 27 min

   Round two. Same four analysts, a lot more whiskey, and a lot less structure. Peter Zeihan, Marko Papic, and Matt Gertken sit back down with Jacob - a man who cut his teeth pestering all three of them for their pieces as a Stratfor intern - for an unfiltered conversation about how they actually became geopolitical strategists. They trade formative-moment stories from Stratfor's early-2000s "golden age" (including the Egypt/Mubarak call that made Jacob's career), debate whether corporate America can ever hire real geopolitical talent, and each name the one book that shaped how they see the world - from World War Z to Aristotle to The Ingenuity Gap. Along the way: George Friedman lore, the DC Comics-vs-Marvel theory of geopolitical shops, and a genuinely moving closing tribute to the mentor who built this whole coaching tree. Part reunion, part masterclass in how to think about the world - and part roast session. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome Back Round Two (00:52) - Whiskey And Loose Format (01:34) - Formative Stratfor Moments (02:24) - Arab Spring Cred Test (04:17) - Stratfor Coaching Tree (07:50) - Pipeline After Cold War (14:17) - Academia Versus Geopolitics (17:14) - Analyst Craft And Courage (20:22) - Chief Geopolitical Officer Debate (22:55) - Training Gap And Time Horizons (25:29) - Universities And MBA Reform (27:39) - Ideology And Groupthink (30:02) - Theory Versus Practice (30:57) - Frameworks Beat Facts (31:44) - Operationalizing Geopolitics (34:24) - Training Pipelines and MBAs (37:39) - Sector Specialists and Scale (40:01) - Everyone a Geostrategist (41:01) - Deglobalization in Fashion (42:51) - Formative Books Roundtable (51:07) - Great Men and Psychology (54:21) - Empathetic Analysis Explained (56:25) - Displacement and Perspective (58:23) - Formative Experiences Teaser (58:50) - Yugoslavia Falls Apart (59:15) - Tito Memories and Disillusion (59:58) - Conspiracies and Nihilism (01:01:23) - Identity in the Balkans (01:03:51) - Living With Uncertainty (01:04:39) - Midwest Roots and Leaving Home (01:06:18) - Can Places Change (01:07:32) - America as Debate Laboratory (01:10:22) - Learning to Write Analysis (01:14:39) - Chip on Shoulder Mindset (01:18:22) - Morality Versus Analysis (01:21:12) - Breaking Intellectual Chains (01:23:53) - Finding the Fulcrum Question (01:24:43) - Final Words and Gratitude -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/ Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

2. This Is The Way The World Ends (w/ Zeihan & Gertken) - Geopolitical Cousins from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

   Jul 29, 20261 hr 40 min

   Sixteen years after last sharing a table together, four Stratfor alumni reunite for a wide-ranging conversation on the decade ahead. Jacob and Marko are joined by Peter Zeihan, and Matt Gertken to tackle three questions: How does the world end in the next 10 years? What core belief could each of us get wrong? And what's the least expected, most likely thing to happen next? The conversation ranges from deglobalization and collapsing oil supply chains to the demographic cliff facing the developed world, the odds of deflation versus inflation in the 2030s, and whether the global order ends up multipolar, bipolar, or unipolar. They also debate the odds of a US-China clash over Taiwan, and whether the nation-state can survive a coming showdown with the tech companies and billionaires who increasingly control critical infrastructure - including orbit. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome and Setup (02:05) - Reunion at the Table (03:11) - Episode Premise and Format (04:22) - Zeihan on Deglobalization (06:42) - Energy Shock Fallout (08:52) - Demographics and Demand Crash (11:03) - Deflation vs Inflation Debate (16:25) - Drone Warfare Dark Turn (18:21) - Semiconductors Reality Check (27:27) - Marco Goes Nuclear (30:10) - Russia Collapse Scenarios (33:18) - Nukes Spread and Ukraine Endgame (35:31) - Supply Chain Shockwaves (36:34) - Putin Hell Bar Joke (37:18) - Europe Expansion Debate (39:26) - EU Becomes Military Union (40:37) - Post Putin Chaos Risks (43:08) - Russian Elite Succession (44:27) - Civil War Nuclear Fear (47:34) - China Fills The Vacuum (52:26) - Taiwan Timeline Scenario (53:59) - Drones Nukes And Invasion (56:43) - Deterrence And Flashpoints (01:03:34) - China Demographics Clash (01:05:15) - Depopulation Not Disaster (01:06:14) - Black Plague Lessons (01:07:11) - Automation Versus Depopulation (01:07:22) - Japan China Depopulation Debate (01:09:31) - End of Nation State (01:11:18) - Shocks and State Capacity (01:12:04) - Broken World of More (01:13:07) - Knowledge Networks Collapse (01:14:31) - Affluence Feudalism Demand (01:16:51) - Brittle AI Chip Supply (01:21:39) - Ingenuity Gap Reversal (01:23:34) - Rapid Fire Predictions (01:35:47) - State Versus Tech Showdown (01:40:24) - Wrap and Break -- Referenced in the Show: https://zeihan.com/ -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. --

3. Geography is Destiny: China, The Global South, & Energy from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

   Jul 21, 20261 hr 1 min

   Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China Global South Project, joins the pod to discuss the developments on the other side of the globe. From Ho Chi Minh City, Eric explains how the Global South actually sees the US-Iran war, why nobody expects China to ride to anyone's rescue, and how Vietnam's tariff and energy shocks became a never-again moment. He and Jacob dig into the myth that tariffs can implode China, America's fading China literacy, and why the next order won't be Chinese-led - but China will be its transformational character. *Note: There are some weird buzzing sounds in the pod, we know! There was some sort of issue uploading the audio, we're on it. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro (00:46) - World Cup Travel Chaos (02:01) - Soccer Politics and Tensions (03:33) - Meet Eric Olander (05:32) - China’s Transformation Story (07:54) - Global South Views of China (10:26) - China as Daily Operating System (13:12) - Pew Poll Surprises Explained (14:10) - Southeast Asia vs Northeast Asia (17:32) - Why Philippines Aligns With US (20:10) - Japan Taiwan Flashpoint (21:15) - Supply Chains and Sea Lanes (23:36) - Japan Rearms for Post US Era (28:19) - Japan’s Regional Influence (30:38) - Japan as Counterbalance (32:04) - Drone Age Security Shift (33:05) - South China Sea Alarm (33:28) - Iran War Global South (38:37) - China Gains and Risks (40:46) - No Alliance Expectations (43:51) - ICBM Test Explained (47:40) - Decoupling and US Pragmatists (50:35) - People to People Breakdown (54:41) - China Blowing Europe Window (58:56) - Mutual Misunderstanding Finale (59:55) - Closing Thanks and Signoff -- Referenced in the Show: -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. -- Mentioned in this episode: Check Out Future Hindsight! If you enjoy our podcast, check out our homies over at Future Hindsight! It's an award-winning weekly podcast that takes big ideas about civic life and democracy and turns them into action items for you and me. Learn more at www.futurehindsight.com/

4. Why Is China Bad at Soccer? from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

   Jul 19, 20261 hr 11 min

   Jacob grabs Chris Branch, senior writer at The Athletic and author of The Pulse, to talk about the World Cup as geopolitics. They cover Trump's red-card intervention and the Balogun controversy, England-Argentina and the ghost of the Falklands, why sports and politics were never actually separate, and why China and India can barely qualify while Cape Verde runs wild. Plus: whether soccer ever truly takes hold in America, and why it might take a billionaire treating the sport like a Carnegie library to make it happen. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro (01:41) - In-Person Catch-Up (02:40) - Meet Chris Branch (03:28) - Why This World Cup Hit Different (05:09) - Sports Writing Meets Politics (07:11) - Fan Culture and National Rivalries (10:24) - FIFA Corruption and New Fans (14:03) - Picking a Premier League Team (15:16) - Can Soccer Catch On in America (17:49) - Why MLS Struggles (21:55) - Pay-to-Play and US Development (29:22) - Women’s Soccer and Global Gaps (33:47) - Trump, FIFA, and the Balogun Saga (35:29) - Red Card Controversy (36:25) - Iran Match Bad Karma (37:37) - Play Anyway Debate (42:22) - Sports as Common Ground (44:37) - Stars Politics and Fandom (56:10) - Money Youth Sports Future (01:04:53) - Closing Stories and Wrap -- Referenced in the Show: The Pulse - https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/newsletters/the-pulse/ -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. -- Mentioned in this episode: Check out Marketplace Morning Report! If you're enjoying the Jacob Shapiro Podcast, make sure to check out Marketplace's Morning Report! The team gives you the economy without the anxiety, in the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee. Learn more at: www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report Check out Marketplace Morning Report! If you're enjoying the Jacob Shapiro Podcast, make sure to check out Marketplace's Morning Report! The team gives you the economy without the anxiety, in the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee. Learn more at: www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report

5. Shipping for Dummies from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

   Jul 14, 202657 min

   Jacob sits down with J Mintzmyer of Value Investors Edge for a shipping deep-dive (but of course it's a geopolitics lesson in disguise). Mintzmyer argues the industry has barely changed in eleven years, most of the efficiency gains, double hulls, eco-designed vessels, LNG boil-off fixes, were locked in over a decade ago, leaving only regulation to move the needle. The two dig into why the US lost shipbuilding to Japan, Korea, and now China, how the Jones Act complicates the picture, and why America's real shot at relevance lies in owning and financing vessels, not building them. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome and Setup (01:20) - Meet J Mintzmyer (02:38) - Shipping for Dummies (06:24) - How Shipping Demand Works (08:30) - Has Shipping Changed (16:48) - US Shipbuilding Decline (26:14) - Tonnage Tax Loophole (27:15) - Make US Shipping Competitive (27:54) - Finance Incentives Not Sanctions (28:56) - Why US Shipbuilding Lags (31:31) - China Shipbuilding Dominance (44:36) - Automation And Future Innovation -- Referenced in the Show: Twitter: https://x.com/mintzmyer Website: www.vieresearch.com Box book: https://www.amazon.com/Box-Shipping-Container-Smaller-Economy/dp/0691170819 Chinese automated shipyard (video): https://youtu.be/RXr03aRF_p8?si=1cjIBZaFeTTqhutD -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. -- Mentioned in this episode: Check out Marketplace Morning Report! If you're enjoying the Jacob Shapiro Podcast, make sure to check out Marketplace's Morning Report! The team gives you the economy without the anxiety, in the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee. Learn more at: www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report

6. Frontlines: Ukraine, Iran, oil markets, and what the World Cup reveals about global politics from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

   Jul 9, 202650 min

   Crosspost! Shaun Haney and Jacob use the global football tournament as a springboard to discuss nationalism, international institutions, and the role sport plays in bringing people together, while acknowledging that politics inevitably follows major global events. Shapiro says that international sporting events can provide valuable insight into broader geopolitical trends while also serving as a rare source of optimism. -- Referenced in the Show: Frontlines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wckZi7rZU3U -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. --

7. Is The War Over? from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

   Jul 2, 202659 min

   Hamidreza Azizi joins the show once more to ask a deceptively simple question: is the war over? Azizi argues the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is deliberately vague and fully reversible - sanctions relief hinges on a phone call, the $300 billion investment fund is unfunded, and both Iran and the US are already renegotiating its terms through actions, not words. They dig into Iran's Strait of Hormuz fee gambit, China's calculated non-intervention, Turkey's regional rise, and 80% inflation battering Iran domestically. Azizi's verdict: Iran emerges more resilient, not more powerful, and... you'll have to listen to get the rest! -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro (00:49) - Book Timing and Relevance (03:49) - Is the War Over (05:23) - Iranian View of Ongoing War (11:23) - MOU Favorable to Iran (12:56) - MOU Details and Reversibility (18:48) - Strait of Hormuz Fee Debate (21:05) - Iran Strategy and Leverage Clock (27:57) - Regional Order in Transition (35:46) - China and Great Power Dynamics (42:46) - Turkey and Israel Threat Perception (46:10) - Iran Domestic Fallout and 60 Day Outlook -- Referenced in the Show: Hamidreza's Substack - https://www.irananalytica.org/ Hamidreza on X - https://x.com/HamidRezaAz -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. --

8. The Cartel Math Isn't Mathing from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

   Jun 22, 202655 min

   Jacob Shapiro sits down with Victor Hernandez, a Mexican national security analyst, to stress-test his own optimism about Mexico. Hernandez argues the army now runs eight ministries' budgets, can't out-spy the cartels, and may face limited US drone strikes Mexico has no way to resist. El Mencho's death looks more like an ambush than a victory. Nearshoring pencils out on a spreadsheet - until corruption and parallel taxation eat the margin. A bracing case for what happens if Jacob's wrong. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro and Framing (01:29) - Meet Victor Hernandez (02:44) - Victor Background and Career (05:00) - Army Trust and Corruption (07:38) - Blowback and Patriotism (10:25) - Morena and Military Power (15:29) - Future of Militarization (17:24) - Army vs Cartels Capabilities (22:26) - Will the US Intervene (26:26) - Drone Strikes Fallout (29:32) - Cuba Sequencing and Allies (33:04) - Trade Dependence and Diversification (39:45) - El Mencho and Cartel Fragmentation (44:14) - Investing and Nearshoring Risks (51:05) - What If Victor Is Wrong (54:24) - Closing and Outro -- Referenced in the Show: Victor Hernandez - https://www.linkedin.com/in/v%C3%ADctor-hern%C3%A1ndez-979002b0? ILEES - https://www.ilees.mx/ -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. --

9. Crosspost: Frontlines "Hormuz to AI" from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

   Jun 18, 202641 min

   You might not realize it, but Jacob also appears on a few other podcasts regularly! Jacob is a regular guest RealAgriculture’s Frontlines podcast , hosted by Shaun Hane. Shaun and Jacob discuss geopolitics from an agricultural lens, exploring how the world reacts to the extremely fine-tuned world of ag. Many analysts expected a prolonged disruption in the Strait to trigger severe economic fallout. Instead, oil prices have risen, inflation pressures have intensified, and shortages are emerging in some regions, yet markets remain resilient. Jacob argues that oil’s influence on the broader economy is no longer as dominant as it was during previous energy crises. Strategic reserves, alternative supply routes, and new infrastructure projects have helped cushion the impact, even as consumers face higher fuel and food costs. At the same time, he points to inflation as the political challenge that could ultimately shape U.S. policy. While employment numbers remain relatively strong, Jacob contends that household finances are under increasing pressure. -- Referenced in the Show: Frontlines- https://www.realagriculture.com/2026/06/from-hormuz-to-ai-competing-forces-are-driving-the-global-economy-frontlines-june-2026/ -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. --

10. Who Killed the Florida Orange? from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    Jun 3, 202652 min

    Florida produced 242 million boxes of oranges in 2003. This year, the USDA is forecasting 12 million... a decline of more than 95% in less than a generation. Jacob sits down with journalist Alexander Sammon, who wrote a definitive autopsy of the Florida orange industry, to understand how disease, globalization, and real estate swallowed one of America's most iconic crops. Scratch the surface of orange juice, and you find geopolitics, government mandates, and the full sweep of 20th century American economic history. Alex's article below! -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome and Schedule Update (00:26) - Meet Alex Salmon (01:18) - Orange Juice Meets Geopolitics (02:48) - Florida Orange Collapse (04:27) - Disease and Perfect Storm (06:0) -6 Can Science Save Citrus (10:37) - Farmers Pivot to Real Estate (14:28) - Nostalgia for Old Florida (16:58) - Brazil Takes the Baton (24:25) - Oranges Through History (26:50) - Canonizing a Classic (27:39) - Oranges Arrive in Florida (28:52) - Railroads and Early Boom (30:02) - War Creates Orange Juice (30:35) - Geopolitics in Your Glass (34:02) - Advertising Makes a Staple (35:49) - Greening and Structural Cracks (37:26) - Globalization Hollowing Out (39:23) - Wall Street Consolidation (42:54) - Juice Backlash and Millennials (45:16) - Future of Oranges Worldwide (49:51) - Next Project and Farewell -- Referenced in the Show: Who Killed the Florida Orange? - https://slate.com/business/2026/04/florida-state-orange-food-houses-real-estate.html -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. --

11. Are the Cartels Winning? from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    May 21, 202654 min

    Ioan Grillo has spent decades on the ground in Mexico watching the cartels evolve, and his assessment is sobering. Violence has shifted form more than it's receded. Governments change rhetoric, not reality. The U.S. is more involved than anyone admits. And Sheinbaum is threading a needle between Washington's pressure and Mexican sovereignty. A conversation you won't find anywhere else. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro (01:33) - Name Pronunciation (02:46) - How Cartels Evolved (03:35) - Violence Plateau Explained (08:04) - Homicide Stats vs Reality (10:01) - Sheinbaum Security Strategy (14:28) - US Role and Intervention (15:54) - Trump Era Cartel Priority (20:51) - Sovereignty and Mixed Views (24:38) - Extraditions and Double Talk (27:11) - US Role In Mexico (28:23) - CIA Tactics Debate (29:11) - Bukele Model Questions (30:22) - Why Bukele Rose (34:15) - Crackdown Tradeoffs (37:53) - Mexico Geography Limits (39:36) - What Tough Looks Like (43:19) - Journalism Under Threat (47:49) - Staying Sane Reporting (53:01) - Closing And Links -- Referenced in the Show: -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. --

12. Static, Not Strategic from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    May 14, 202658 min

    Our favorite military analyst, Sim Tack, returns to the pod to assess three different conflicts reshaping global security. In Ukraine, territorial gains are tactical, not strategic; Russian economic endurance remains the real variable. In Iran, a degraded military has reached a stalemate the U.S. and Israel cannot break without regime change. And in Mali, a jihadist advance is threatening to create a new territorial caliphate... with Russia's failed security guarantee quietly accelerating the collapse. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (01:08) - Sim is Back (01:56) - Is the World Overwhelming? (04:23) - AI Briefings and Limits (06:10) - Drones and War Evolution (09:44) - Top Conflicts to Watch (11:59) - Ukraine Strikes and Oil Leverage (13:53) - Reality Check on Initiative (18:26) - Zelensky Endgame Options (23:28) - Russia Staying Power and Economy (26:15) - NATO Threat Question (26:46) - Russia Threat Timeline (27:53) - Can Russia Fight NATO (29:30) - Satellite Buildup Reality (30:23) - Europe Rearms Narrative (35:11) - Asymmetric Threat Debate (37:06) - Drones Cyber Article Five (41:11) - US Munitions Bottleneck (47:39) - Iran Stalemate Logic (50:27) - How Neutered Is Iran (53:46) - Mali Jihadist Surge (57:17) - Closing Thanks Outro -- Sim's Work: AllSource Analysis: https://allsourceanalysis.com/work/sim-tack/ Linkedin: https://be.linkedin.com/in/sim-tack-081b313b -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. --

13. Warp Speed for Everything from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    May 6, 20261 hr 13 min

    Jacob sits down for a fantastic conversation with author and analyst Dror Poleg to explore how AI is reshaping work, value, and the economy. They unpack why AI is better understood as a medium than a tool, what the shift from tangible to intangible assets means for investors, and why the dynamics of show business now govern every industry - from oil to politics. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introooo (01:27) - Twitter and the Text Commons (04:16) - AI Metaphors Tool or Medium (07:58) - How LLMs Actually Think (16:04) - Analog to Digital Generations (17:39) - Work Capital and Interchangeability (23:39) - OnlyFans Economy and Discovery (28:18) - Nonlinear Economy Tangible vs Intangible (35:45) - Is This Universal China Too (37:43) - China Fears Volatility (38:11) - COVID Strategy Contrast (40:39) - Censorship Arms Race (42:05) - AI Slips Control (43:09) - Energy Limits Return (44:52) - Automation And Work (47:22) - All Swans Black (52:36) - Politics Need New Story (57:50) - Cities For New Economy (01:03:18) - Warp Speed Government (01:05:00) - Israel Modern War Paradox (01:12:18) - Closing And Credits -- Referenced in the Show: Dror Poleg's Site and piece referenced - https://www.drorpoleg.com/forty-in-quarantine/ -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. --

14. Gross Diplomacy from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    Apr 29, 202657 min

    Peru has had seven presidents in nine years, homicides have nearly doubled, and extortion is up sixfold - and yet the country just tried to buy $3.5 billion worth of F-16s. Elohim Monard returns to diagnose a political crisis that doubles as a case study in great-power failure. From "gross diplomacy" on social media to a runoff framed as "cancer versus HIV," Peru is caught between Washington and Beijing with no strategy of its own. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro (00:37) - Gross Diplomacy Sparks (01:51) - US Diplomatic Decline (05:17) - Trump Centralized Foreign Policy (07:08) - Peru F-16 Deal Controversy (12:28) - Why F-16s Make No Sense (17:13) - Peru Budget and Military Inertia (21:43) - Peru Election and Crime Surge (24:32) - Fujimori Question Setup (24:58) - Fujimori Paradox (26:38) - Instability Origins (28:32) - Democracy Tradeoffs (30:43) - Sanchez and Castillo (33:51) - Cleavages Over Policy (36:57) - US China Reality Check (39:03) - Beyond Great Powers (45:07) - Inequality Fuels Populism (49:52) - No Offers From Washington (51:28) - Latin America Leadership Void (56:44) - Closing and Signoff -- Referenced in the Show: -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. --

15. Fertilizer 101 from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    Apr 22, 202652 min

    Josh Linville,VP of Fertilizer at StoneX, chats with Jacob about the global fertilizer crisis triggered by disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. They cover why the Middle East dominates fertilizer supply, why the US can't easily fill the gap, which crops and regions are most at risk, and what farmers should do right now to protect themselves. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (01:15) - War Context and Stakes (02:22) - Fertilizer 101 Big Three (03:36) - Why Hormuz Matters (04:55) - Middle East Gas Advantage (06:12) - Why US Lags Production (07:56) - Capacity Crunch Explained (10:47) - China and State Strategy (13:11) - Build Plants or Reserve (16:25) - Investment Reality Check (19:00) - Food Security Imperative (21:18) - Seasonality and Timing (23:36) - Global Impacts and Grain (25:33) - Fertilizer Booking Gaps (26:44) - Survey Skepticism (28:59) - Global Risk Hotspots (30:43) - Yield and Protein Impacts (32:35) - Fertilizer Supercycles (36:05) - New Normal or Oversupply (39:47) - Pinch Points Russia (41:38) - Beyond the Big Three (43:19) - Organic Alternatives Limits (46:33) - Carbon Premium Reality (48:32) - Key Takeaways Farmers (50:42) - Wrap Up and Credits -- Referenced in the Show: -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. --

16. The Off Ramp Is Right Now from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    Apr 16, 202652 min

    Josef Schachter - President of Schachter Energy - walks us through what global oil markets looked like the day before bombs started falling, and what the math looks like now. Prices were already heading higher, the conflict accelerated the timeline, and the U.S. can't drill its way out of a closed Strait of Hormuz. Jacob and Josef also get into Canada's structural advantage, why markets are still surprisingly calm, and what a prolonged conflict means for the global economy. Tune in for more :) -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (00:36) - Prewar Oil Market Setup (02:24) - War Impact and Price Paths (05:15) - Ceasefire Doubts and Escalation (09:02) - Markets vs Reality Gap (10:32) - Supply Now Product Later (12:47) - Trump Strategy and Nuclear Endgame (16:03) - Drill Baby Drill Reality Check (18:53) - Can Americas Output Replace Gulf (20:57) - Energy Hegemony and China Angle (25:18) - Allies Drift and US Quandary (27:18) - Biofuels Reality Check (29:38) - War Changes Everything (31:13) - New Supply Hunt Worldwide (32:59) - Policy Reversals for Security (39:31) - Pipelines LNG and Takeaway (40:38) - Global Plays Beyond Canada (42:36) - 2030s Demand vs Efficiency (46:19) - Portfolio Positioning in Energy (49:48) - Risks That Break the Thesis (51:39) - Closing and Sign Off -- Referenced in the Show: Josef's Site - https://schachterenergyreport.ca/ -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. --

17. The View From Delhi from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    Apr 3, 202655 min

    Kabir Taneja, Executive Director of the Observer Research Foundation Middle East, joins the podcast for an Indian perspective on the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Jacob and Kabir discuss how ordinary Indians are feeling the economic anxiety of potential energy shortages, India's long-standing policy of non-alignment in the Middle East, its deep ties with Gulf states, and why any lasting regional resolution will ultimately require Iran's security buy-in. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (00:57) - Global Economy Worries (01:40) - Meet Kabir Taneja (02:02) - ORF Middle East Explained (03:26) - Why Dubai Matters (04:14) - India View on War (06:46) - Economic Fallout at Home (08:56) - Politics and Nonalignment (11:40) - Cooking Gas Stove Detour (12:51) - What Can India Do (13:55) - Energy Dependence Reality (15:01) - Iran Ties and JCPOA (18:25) - Trump Exit and Trust (24:58) - China Perception and Border (27:12) - Galwan Shifts Public Mood (28:36) - Russia As China Counterweight (29:28) - China Benefits From Gulf War (30:51) - Pakistan Diplomatic Surge (32:46) - Islamabad Reenters Washington (34:54) - Pakistan Security Leverage (37:21) - Asymmetric War Lessons (39:23) - India Pakistan Conventional Focus (42:10) - Iranian Frigate And US India Ties (44:56) - India Best Case Strait Outcome (49:28) - Gulf Partnerships And Multipolarity (54:48) - Closing Thanks And Signoff -- Referenced in the Show: Kabir Taneja - https://www.orfonline.org/people-expert/kabir-taneja -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. --

18. Soft Power is Underrated from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    Apr 1, 20261 hr 7 min

    Chase Taylor of Pine Cone Macro rejoins the pod for a candid conversation about the Iran War and its ripple effects on global markets, military strategy, and U.S. geopolitical standing. Jacob and Chase discuss escalation dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz, the psychology of both leaderships, and what a realistic off-ramp might look like. They close out on the topic of U.S. competitiveness - covering energy policy, education investment, human capital, and the looming threat of nuclear proliferation. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (01:21) - War Anxiety and Cash Question (03:26) - Leadership Narratives and Intel Gaps (06:33) -Iran Capabilities and Escalation (09:55) - Hormuz Toll Booth Scenarios (15:35) - Markets Underpricing the Shock (21:51) - When Crisis Feels Real (27:23) - Defensive Positioning and Themes (32:08) - China Gains From Energy Shift (33:32) - China Soft Power Play (34:16) - Why Sugar Spikes (35:55) - Sugar Timing And Refinery (37:02) - What To Do With 401k (40:25) - Argentina Energy Bet (44:19) - Pre War Market Themes (47:17) - Middle East New Equilibrium (50:17) - Winners Losers And Energy (55:28) - US Dutch Disease Debate (01:02:55) - Human Capital And Nukes 01:06:08 Closing Thanks And Outro -- Referenced in the Show: Pine Cone Macro - https://www.pineconemacro.com/ -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. --

19. Renegade Scottish Economics from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    Mar 23, 202654 min

    Jacob sits down with Laurie McFarlane, co-director of Future Economy Scotland, for a (non-Gulf War related, finally) conversation about what makes Scotland one of the more fascinating geopolitical underdogs around. The two dig into Scotland's constrained economic agency within the UK, the squandered promise of North Sea oil, the renewable energy transition, and why Scotland - like much of Europe - risks sleepwalking into managed decline. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome And Setup (01:30) - Why Scotland Now (02:35) - Future Economy Scotland Origins (05:54) - Early Impact And Strategy (07:55) - Devolution Limits And Agency (13:11) - North Sea Oil And Missed Fund (15:24) - Managed Decline And Renewables (20:26) - Who Benefits From Wind (22:04) - UK Pricing And Regional Bills (24:16) - Decoupling Gas And Next Steps (27:03) - Green Transition Jobs (29:26) - Avoiding Deindustrialization (31:20) - Searching For Analogies (34:19) - Ireland And Independence (36:51) - Renewables Leverage Limits (39:18) - Water As Strategic Asset (40:57) - Brexit And Global Power (43:47) - Nukes And Security Debate (46:41) -Future Growth Model (49:37) - Sharing Growth Fairly (52:35) - Europe Coordination Vision (53:56) - Closing -- Referenced in the Show: -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. --

20. Firepower Is Not a Strategy from The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    Mar 19, 202624 min

    Solo analysis from Jacob! Some reflection on being wrong about the Third Gulf War. Jacob outlines why he thought the war wouldn't happen - interceptor shortages, domestic politics, inflation risk, and explains what's shaken his analytical framework: the killing of moderate Iranian leaders, the appointment of a hardline Supreme Leader, the U.S. confusing firepower for strategy, and, of course, allies refusing to cooperate. -- Timestamps: (00:27) - Why No US Attack (02:15) - Iran Geography Leverage (02:56) - US Politics Inflation Risk (05:19) - Noninterventionist Contradiction (06:26) - War Starts Timebox Logic (07:50) - Leadership Decapitation Fallout (08:43) - Hardliners Take Over (10:02) - Firepower Not Strategy (11:32) - Ground Troops And Oil Moves (12:43) - Allies China And Shipping (15:06) - South Pars Escalation (16:45) - Iran Presses Advantage (17:36) - Is The Framework Broken (18:17) - Foxes Hedgehogs Forecasting (19:38) - White House Meme Strategy (21:37) - Grim Outlook Food Shock (23:08) - Wrap Up And Subscribe -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. --