Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

The Inside Economics team is joined by colleague and CPI guru Matt Colyar to discuss August's CPI inflation report, which came in a touch hotter than expected. Mark ranks his top four inflation culprits, and the team weighs in. Next week's Fed meeting is top of mind, and there's some disagreement about the likelihood of a Fed rate hike. Guest: Matt Colyar To access Mark and Matt's paper The Fed's Inflation Drama , click here: https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=0944A835-CD53-4092-ADD2-B22EEC4A45D3&app=download Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of our AI series, Ara Kharazian, lead economist at fintech company Ramp, joins the Inside Economics team to discuss the state of AI adoption. Drawing on Ramp’s real-time business spending data, Ara offers a unique view into which firms and industries are moving fastest, which are lagging, which LLMs are gaining traction, how token pricing is evolving, and what data center constraints and government regulation could mean for the AI boom. Guest: Ara Kharazian, Lead Economist, Ramp View our latest articles and research on AI- https://www.economy.com/ai-insight-hub Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mark and Cris are joined by Dante to unpack the August employment report. While the headline number surprised to the upside, they agree it does little to change their view of underlying job growth. The discussion turns to the implications for monetary policy, including how renewed pressure from President Trump for rate cuts could factor into the Fed outlook. With Marisa away, the team skips the usual stats game and instead weighs the economic risks and opportunities they believe are underappreciated. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Continuing the AI series, the Inside Economics team talks with ConstructConnect Chief Economist Michael Guckes about the data center boom. Michael’s granular view of the buildout sheds light on both the opportunities and risks, including whether financing has outpaced construction and whether cheaper AI models could leave some premium data centers stranded. And as a bonus, he has some thoughts on construction in Area 51. Guest: Michael Buckes, Chief Economist, ConstructConnect View our latest articles and research on AI- https://www.economy.com/ai-insight-hub Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Stripe Chief Economist Ernie Tedeschi joins the Inside Economics team to separate the signal from the noise in a busy week for the economy and financial markets. The group discusses Kevin Warsh's recent speech and the market's reaction, unpacks the latest PCE inflation data and what it means for the Fed, and explores the remarkable surge in business formations. Are more Americans becoming entrepreneurs because of shifts in how firms are organized, or is technology making it easier than ever to launch and run a business? Ernie shares insights on the rise of solopreneurs and what it could mean for the future of work, productivity, and economic growth. Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Capital Group economist Darrell Spence, who has covered the U.S. economy for more than three decades, separates AI hype from the evidence, explaining how much growth the current capital-spending boom is actually buying, where productivity gains are most likely to show up, and who benefits when they do. He also looks to earlier investment cycles for a sense of how long this one will last. The spending is real, but Spence makes the case that enthusiasm and economic resilience are not the same thing — a distinction that matters more as consumer spending softens, inflation persists, and tariffs push up costs. Check out the link to Capital Group's 2026 outlook: 2026 Midyear Investment Outlook View our latest articles and research on AI- Is AI a Miracle or a Mirage? Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Top of mind for the Inside Economics team this week is the surge in long-term interest rates. Colleague Martin Wurm joins the conversation to unpack why rates have risen so sharply, assess whether the U.S. Treasury’s efforts to stem the increase will work, and consider the risk of a much more serious bond market sell-off. Fundamentally, the only real solution is for the nation to address its darkening fiscal outlook. Hmmm…. Guest: Martin Wurm Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

MIT professor David Autor, one of the world’s leading labor economists, separates AI hype from evidence, explaining which jobs are most likely to be augmented rather than automated, what that means for wages and middle-skill work, and what past technological shifts teach us about the adjustment ahead. While big changes in the labor market are coming quickly, Autor makes the case that they are manageable—and outlines the policies that could ease the transition. View our latest articles and research on AI- Is AI a Miracle or a Mirage? Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Inside Economics crew is joined by colleague Matt Colyar to run down the week’s slate of inflation and consumer data. Following the recap and a brief detour about lettuce consumption, each puts forward probabilities that the Fed will cut rates, hike rates, or stay put in the near term. The numbers game leads to a discussion of the series the group would put on their Mount Rushmore – an exercise Mark is completely unfamiliar with and blames on the group’s generational divide. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

There was nothing redeeming in the July jobs report, and the podcast crew covered all the pain points: weak job gains, downward revisions, fewer hours worked, slowing wage growth, and a worrisome drop in labor force participation. Fittingly, we had to battle through our own painful series of technical problems while recording - curious whether you’ll notice. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute and colleague Matt Colyar join the Inside Economics crew to unpack a blockbuster week for the U.S. economy. A bizarre FOMC meeting, fresh GDP and inflation data, new readings on consumers, and financial market gyrations offered plenty to discuss. The group debates what it all means, where the economy is likely to head from here, and of course, play the numbers game. Guest: Michael Strain, Director of Economic Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Nowhere is the economy’s resilience more evident than in the vehicle market. To break this down, the Inside Economics team is joined by colleague Mike Brisson, and the brain trust at Cox Automotive, including Jeremy Robb, Chief Economist, and repeat guest Jonathan Smoke, Chief Strategy Officer. The group weighs how the recent escalation of the Iran War is impacting gas prices and consumer decisions around new and used car buying, including EVs and hybrids. They also discuss how tariffs have (or haven’t) affected vehicle prices over the past year and consider auto lending as interest rates rise. Following the stats game, the experts give their forecasts for vehicle sales. Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The financial health of the American consumer is top of mind these days, and no one better to discuss it with than Emmaline Aliff of Equifax and our own consumer maven, Mike Brisson, join the podcast to dig into the evidence. While the consumer sector as a whole remains resilient, the story differs dramatically across the thrivers, the strivers, and the survivors. We also unpack a week full of inflation data with Matt Colyar, who helps us sort through the numbers and their implications for the economic outlook. Guest: Emmaline Aliff, Advisory Leader, Equifax Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ethan Harris, former Head of Global Economic Research at Bank of America, joins the Inside Economics team to discuss his views on the economy’s resiliency, AI, and the Fed. Ethan expounds on the new Chair Kevin Warsh’s stance on inflation and how to interpret his views from the latest Fed minutes. The team discusses whether AI is affecting productivity and the risks it poses to the wider economy and labor market. Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Inside Economics crew takes a deep dive into the June employment report, which was notably softer following a string of upside surprises. The team debates how to define labor market slack given the sharp divergence between the payroll and household surveys since the beginning of the year. The stats game had some twists and turns, from the labor market to the World Cup, and Dante takes heat for mixing up positives and negatives. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mark and Marisa dissect the raft of economic data released this past week, and debate what it means for the outlook. Chris joins the conversation and weighs in on where oil prices will settle. The group plays the Stats game – some tough stats. The discussion ends with Mark peppering our new colleague, Colin Ellis, with wide-ranging questions about the global economy. Guests: Chris Lafakis and Colin Ellis Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist of New Century Advisors joins the team to break down Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting and press conference. The group covers the rate decision, changes to Fed communications, the dot plot's future, and what Warsh's balance sheet views signal for monetary policy ahead. The new Chair is in the seat, time will tell if it's a comfortable one. Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Inside Economics team welcomes Jim Lebenthal, Chief Market Strategist at Cerity Partners, to discuss all things investing on the morning of the SpaceX IPO. Jim discusses the equity market’s extraordinary run, whether AI stocks are overvalued, and how investors should think about picking individual stocks versus investing in index funds. The team also welcomes Matt Colyar to talk about this week’s inflation data, and Marisa addresses a slew of comments from last week’s podcast. Guest: Jim Lebenthal, Chief Market Strategist at Cerity Partners For more from Jim Lebenthal, visit his website: www.jimmylebenthal.com Jim's book, How to Ride the Subway: Getting Around on Wall Street and in Life (Regalo Press March 2026), is available here Jenna Score: 8.5 Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Dante joins the Inside Economics crew to dissect the May jobs report, which he describes as shocking. The team discusses whether there is enough evidence to declare that the labor market and underlying job growth have shifted into a higher gear, and debates the growing disconnect between the payroll and household surveys. The stats game delivers some interesting insights about the strength of job growth for women and the impact that remote work has had on young college graduates. Jenna Score: 8 Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Three economists. Three opinions. The Inside Economics team worked through a panoply of fresh releases, covering GDP, spending, income, new-home sales, durable goods orders, and inflation, to piece together the true state of the economy. Three tricky statistics tested the team in the stats game before a three-part listener question closed things out. Stay tuned for Cris' paper mentioned in the episode here Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.