Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts

The CFTC has proposed new rules that could reshape how market making works across prediction market platforms, from fee treatment for in-house market makers to limits on the positions they're allowed to take. The proposal touches everything from single-market liquidity to how combos and RFQs get priced, and depending on how it's implemented, it could change who's able to compete as a market maker at all. Pro sports bettor and trader Porter of BA Analytics joins Circles Off to break down what the proposal actually changes, why the fee and positioning rules matter more than they might look on paper, and what tighter competition among market makers could mean for pricing and liquidity on these markets going forward. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Porter - https://x.com/BAanalytics_ 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CFTC #PredictionMarkets #MarketMaking #SportsBetting #ProphetX #CirclesOff #TheHammerBettingNetwork #BettingIndustry #SportsBettingNews #BettingRegulation Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The NFL, under Commissioner Roger Goodell, has taken a major step in its evolving relationship with prediction markets, and the crew breaks down what it means for sports betting going forward. Week 1 of the NFL season brought plenty of storylines, including a reality check for the Los Angeles Rams following their 27-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, and a betting-adjacent ad campaign featuring Sydney Sweeney has sparked its own conversation about how brands are approaching this space. Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Circle Back alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg, part of the Circles Off lineup from The Hammer Betting Network. Circle Back airs weekly, breaking down the biggest stories in sports betting, prediction markets, and the NFL with sharp analysis and no shortage of debate. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg 1:32 - NFL Week 1 Recap 7:35 - Survivor Chaos, Chargers lose 22:27 - LA Rams Reality Check 35:41 - U.S. Open + Texas Comeback vs. Ohio State 45:55 - Is The NFL Admitting Defeat To Prediction Markets? 52:27 - Sydney Sweeney's Prediction Market Ad Campaign 1:06:59 - Odds Logic's Poorly Timed Price Increase 1:16:18 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #NFL #PredictionMarkets #CircleBack #NFLWeek1 #LARams #49ers #RogerGoodell #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The LeBron James next-team market became the second-largest market prediction platforms have ever seen, trailing only the World Cup, with over $240 million traded. Peanut, aka Peanut Bettor on Twitter, joins Circles Off to break down how a market this size actually moves — why $500,000 walls formed around teams like Miami and Minnesota, and how a trader decides whether to jump a wall or wait it out. The conversation gets into steam versus noise — how a single tweet or Sportscenter hit could send a team surging with zero new information behind it — and why LeBron's notoriously tight-lipped camp made this market especially hard to read. Peanut closes with the biggest lesson from trading it: how the market's long, drawn-out timeline changed the entire approach compared to a decision expected to drop quickly. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/46xNSOo LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Peanut - https://x.com/Peanut_Bettor OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #LeBronJames #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #ProphetX #CirclesOff #TheHammerBettingNetwork #NBA #LeBronNextTeam #BettingMarkets #TradingStrategy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Do quants ignore motivation? I tested the most famous motivation angles in football, revenge games and blowout bounce backs, against 20+ years of real NFL closing lines. One of them was legitimately profitable. Then the market found it. This is the full lifecycle of a betting edge, tested live against 20+ years of real NFL closing lines. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF. Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - The Misconception 1:07 - I Am One of the Spreadsheet Guys 2:45 - Millions of Angles, We Test One 5:07 - Quantify Everything 5:58 - The Market Knew Something I Didn't 8:39 - Motivation in Golf 10:00 - Defining Revenge (For Real) 11:31 - 3,000 Revenge Games 13:18 - The Bounce Back 15:32 - Does It Still Work? 16:55 - Watching an Angle Die 19:55 - The Small Sample Trap 21:08 - The Million Dollar Catch 23:24 - Sponsored by ProphetX 24:42 - Refusing to Guess 25:21 - What Should We Test Next? Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #NFLBetting #SharpBetting #BettingStrategy #NFLAnalytics #ClosingLineValue #BettingEdge #NFLDataAnalysis #ProphetX #CirclesOff Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Sharp bettor and responsible gaming advocate Isaac Rose-Berman joins Circles Off at BetBash to break down a tennis edge hiding in plain sight. Because of the way tennis scoring works, a player who falls behind by two breaks in a set will often stop competing entirely to conserve energy for the next one, but sportsbooks don't always adjust their in-match pricing to reflect it. Isaac walks through how to spot the trigger, which players are most likely to give up a set, and how the same logic applies well beyond tennis, including a similar spot to watch for in baseball. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #TennisBetting #LiveBetting #BettingEdge #CirclesOff #TheHammer #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Legendary Loopholes, China joins Circles Off to break down one of the most unique player prop edges of the last decade. Starting around 2016, China built a reputation moving college football player prop lines at a major sportsbook, sometimes 60 to 80 props a week. When a second sportsbook entered the market and began scraping those openers days later, it created a two season window where China could rebet his own moved lines at their original stale price, all while getting labeled a "fish" and handed higher limits instead of getting cut off. It's a look back at how legalization, lazy odds-making, and old school leg work created a window that most people never even noticed. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow China - https://x.com/chinamaniac OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #CollegeFootball #LegendaryLoopholes #PlayerProps #BettingEdge #CirclesOff #TheHammer #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

NFL weekend chaos, Week Zero heartbreak, and plenty of drama. Aaron Donald is back — so what does that mean for the Rams and their futures? Plus, Jacobs lands on the commissioners list, a fantasy league debacle unfolds, and we investigate the very real possibility that the “49ers guy” is completely fake. We break down the brutal Hawaii beat from Week Zero, roast Knish for celebrating way too early, dive into the Ninth Circuit’s Kalshi ruling, and ask why “pros don’t want to share.” Plus: Storm Buonatony on sports media salaries, the latest GRP saga, and another edition of the Chopping Block. Drop your questions in the chat! Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Circle Back alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg for another edition of Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow GStack- https://x.com/GeorgeTsilfidis 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Intro To Circle Back5:03 - Aaron Donald Returns to the NFL19:39 - Josh Jacobs' place on the commissioner's list21:31 - NFL Fantasy League Blow-up38:27 - Reactions to the Fake NFL player49:42 - CFB Week 0 Bad Beat 56:11 - Court Ruling w/ Prediction Markets01:02:55 - Pros aren't sharing their picks01:16:02 - Starting a career in sports01:31:15 - GRP gone wild Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week on Circle Back, host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Porter, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Shipper to break down three stories shaking up the prediction markets and sports betting world. The crew dives into a New York Times report that Donald Trump Jr. privately urged a room of Republican state attorneys general to back off regulating prediction markets, arguing that state pushback was being driven by gambling companies protecting their own turf rather than genuine consumer concerns. The panel unpacks what this closed-door pitch means for the ongoing battle between state and federal oversight of the industry, and why prediction markets have become such a political flashpoint heading into the fall. From there, the conversation shifts to a major shift in how prediction markets present their pricing, as platforms move away from familiar American-odds formatting toward straight percentages, a change that's got bettors adjusting their mental math and wondering if more platforms will follow. The show wraps with a look at sharp originators pulling their models and ratings out of public view, as some of the most respected names in the space decide their edge is too valuable to keep sharing for free, and what that shift could mean for bettors who've relied on that public data for years. This episode also marks the final edition of Circle Back Thursday. After more than a year on the air, this is the last time the show will run in this Thursday slot, though Circle Back Monday continues as normal and new content is on the way to fill the Friday spot. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Shipper - https://x.com/ShipTheJustice 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 🔵 Follow Porter - https://x.com/BAanalytics_ OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - The FINAL edition of Circle Back Thursday 1:43 - Originators are going private on prediction markets 11:04 - Prediction Odds begin to remove American Odds 27:28 - Donald Trump Jr. tells Republican state attorneys general to “back off” 36:21 - RAS early releases 42:15 - Worst settlement rules for fights? 50:11 - Taylor Mathis strikes again 53:54 - Chopping Block: A trip down memory lane 1:09:38 - Thank you for watching Circle Back Thursday! Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #CirclesOff #TheHammer #SharpBetting #TrumpJr #BettingNews #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode is presented by ProphetX. Our guest is ProphetX co-founder Jake Benzaquen — we address the relationship directly at the top of the episode. Jake Benzaquen co-founded ProphetX eight years ago, long before "prediction market" was a phrase anyone outside finance used. In June, ProphetX became the first sports-native platform to win CFTC approval as a regulated exchange — and this conversation covers everything that came with it: the sweepstakes years, the $35 million raise, what's shipping on the product side this football season, and the affiliated market making debate that's dividing the entire industry. Rob also presses Jake on the questions that don't have easy answers — the investor overlap on ProphetX's own platform, the 18-vs-21 age gap between prediction markets and sportsbooks, and what happens if the Supreme Court rules against CFTC jurisdiction entirely. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Jake - https://x.com/jakebenzaq OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Opener + Disclosure 1:16 - Who is Jake Benzaquen? 5:08 - The sweepstakes chapter 9:07 - Getting CFTC approval and launching nationwide 19:45 - ProphetX vs the giants - the honest ecosystem conversation 26:09 - The product: payments, RFQ, cash out, the 2.0 app 42:30 - Affiliated market making: the industry's biggest conflict 52:12 - The B2B play 1:02:02 - State vs federal: the regulatory war 1:16:11 - The uncomfortable questions 1:29:43 - The next five years 1:31:33 - +EV / -EV moves, advice to former self 1:38:07 - Outro Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #ProphetX #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #CFTC #CirclesOff #TheHammer #SportsTrading #BettingExchange #AffiliatedMarketMaking #NFLBetting Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Browns recap covering Deshaun Watson's postgame comments after getting booed plus the Sanders update, and Dae'Quan Wright's stunning exit from the NFL back to LSU; Ashton Jeanty's injury scare and what it means for fantasy owners; Scottie Scheffler playing through hand, foot & mouth disease at the BMW Championship and whether golf needs injury reporting; Establish The Run shutting down their pick-selling service; a separate wild stat showing MLB favorites went 15-0 in a day; the Raheem Palmer/Pam Moldanado interaction; plus Chopping Block. Drop your questions in the chat! Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Circle Back alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg for another edition of Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: / discord ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - / circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - / circlesoffhq FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 / @thehammerhq 🏈 / @fwdprogresshq 📚 / @hitthebookshq SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Intro To Circle Back01:30 – Browns Recap: Watson's Postgame Comments & Sanders Update15:50 – Dae'Quan Wright Leaves NFL for LSU23:37 – Ashton Jeanty Injury Update32:47 – Scottie Scheffler's Hand, Foot & Mouth Diagnosis33:30 – Does Golf Need Injury Reporting?48:20 – Establish The Run Shuts Down Pick Service1:04:47 – MLB Favorites Go 15-01:11:11 – Raheem Palmer / Pam Moldanado Interaction1:24:20 - BIG CHANGES HAPPENING!1:29:02 – Chopping Block1:58:04 – Outro / Q&A Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #Browns #DeshaunWatson #ShedeurSanders #ClevelandBrowns #NFL #NCAAFootball #AshtonJeanty #FantasyFootball #Raiders #ScottieScheffler #BMWChampionship #PGATour #EstablishTheRun #SportsBetting #ChoppingBlock #NFLNews Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Prediction markets are having a moment of reckoning. Sharp bettors are starting to call out PM platforms for the same behavior that made traditional sportsbooks notorious: squeezing out the very winners who helped legitimize the space in the first place. From new maker fees quietly eating into sharp profits to a "pro gambler arc" meme capturing the entire cycle of boom, backlash, and burnout, this week's Circle Back digs into whether prediction markets are already repeating the mistakes of the sportsbooks they were supposed to replace. Host Jacob Gramegna is joined live by Joey Knish, Thon Misser, and Peanut to break down the fee structures, the hypocrisy accusations flying between market makers and sharp takers, and what it all means for anyone trying to get a long-term edge in this new market. Presented by ProphetX. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Knish - https://x.com/JoeyKnish22 🔵 Follow Peanut - https://x.com/Peanut_Bettor 🔵 Follow Thon - https://x.com/ThonMisser OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Peanut, & Joey Knish 1:31 - Was Kalish Right All Along? 9:56 - Market Makers vs. Sharp Takers 17:38 - The Pro Gambler Arc 23:41 - +EV Move Of The Week 31:19 - NFL Adopting The March Madness Schedule 36:50 - The Wrong One To Receive An Affiliate Badge 44:16 - Announcement 46:57 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #CircleBack #ProphetX #SharpBettors #SportsBettingPodcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A post about an MIT professor's coin flip (win $125, lose $100) went viral claiming that refusing the bet was the smart move. The psychology is real. The advice is backwards. This is the difference between risk aversion as wisdom and risk aversion as a leak... and the one number from the story that proves it. In this video, Rob breaks down why a single coin flip with a roughly 55% implied win probability in your favor still gets rejected by most people, why that instinct is completely rational at life changing stakes and completely irrational at dinner money stakes, and why the $43 students were willing to pay to walk away from the bet is the most damning detail in the entire story. Then Rob shows the fix: what happens to that exact same flip once you take it 100 times, then 1,000 times, and why repetition (not bravery) is the actual engine behind every profitable sports bettor, market maker, and insurance company that has ever existed. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF. Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - The Viral Flip 1:07 - The Full Story (and the $43) 2:10 - The Part That's Actually True 3:17 - Where It All Falls Apart 4:15 - Paying a Tax on Your Own Fear 5:11 - One Flip vs One Hundred 6:44 - The Dividing Line 8:39 - Sponsored by ProphetX 9:46 - Which Situation Are You In? 10:53 - Circle Back, Mondays 1PM EST Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #ProphetX #CirclesOff #TheHammer #ExpectedValue #RiskAversion #BehavioralEconomics Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

NFL preseason line movement is under the microscope after a wild stretch of results: teams that have moved 1.5+ points or more on the spread this season are 0-8, and 23-51 since 2024, according to Big Al McMordie's numbers. That trend has reignited a fierce debate about whether closing line value still holds up as a betting principle, with some pointing to small sample sizes and starters entering games as the real driver behind the movement. Also on deck: reactions to Pat McAfee's surprise album release, plus the fallout from Circa CEO Derek Stevens' pointed comments questioning the legitimacy and tax structure of peer-to-peer prediction markets. Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Circle Back alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg for another edition of Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg 1:18 - NFL Preseason CLV debate 16:35 - Pat McAfee dropped an album 35:19 - Breaking News on Kawhi Leonard 42:12 - Derek Stevens sounds off on prediction markets 52:29 - Gen Z is moving from stocks to sports betting 1:03:11 - CFTC probe into "mention markets" 1:11:17 - Hypotheticals 1:30:16 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CLV #NFLBetting #ClosingLineValue #SportsBetting #NFLPreseason #CircleBack #CirclesOff #ProphetX #PatMcAfee #DerekStevens #PredictionMarkets #TheHammer Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Prediction markets and sportsbooks might look identical on the surface. Same lines, same moneylines, same spreads. But legally and structurally, they're nothing alike. In this conversation, Jacob sits down with Captain Jack Andrews to break down why prediction markets don't meet the legal definition of gambling the way sportsbooks do, walking through the "chance, consideration, and reward" test, the Wire Act's business-of-betting standard, and why the operator side, not the consumer side, is what actually matters. They also dig into the "Duck Test," the case that could eventually land in front of the Supreme Court, and why the outcome could determine whether prediction markets are regulated state by state or protected under federal preemption. If you've ever wondered whether prediction markets are just sportsbooks in disguise, this is the conversation that settles it. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Jack - https://x.com/capjack2000 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 00:00 – Prediction Markets Are Not Sportsbooks 01:18 – The 3 Components Of Gambling 04:38 – The Business Of Betting & The Duck Test 06:29 – ProphetX 07:29 – Same Bet, Different Mechanics 08:59 – The Real Goal: Getting to the Supreme Court 11:45 – The Sports Traders Union 13:02 – Fundamental Fairness Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #Sportsbooks #CFTC #SportsTradingUnion #BettingRegulation #CirclesOff #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rishi Bets has been posting on X since 2011 with over 35,000 posts and a following nowhere near what that volume would suggest, and it's exactly why the account works. He posts his bet sizes, his wins, and his losses in real time, no cherry-picking. Rob Pizzola sits down with Rishi for a full interview covering his case for prediction markets over traditional sportsbooks, the World Cup position that went horribly wrong and the choice to post the whole thing publicly, where the line should be on which markets can and can't exist, and a run of hot takes on the sports betting community that don't pull punches. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Rishi - https://x.com/Rishibets OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Intro 1:13 - Who is Rishi? 11:24 - How he actually bets 29:37 - The case for prediction markets 58:13 - The Mbappé mistake 1:12:11 - First big loss 1:17:30 - On being stubborn 1:25:43 - Rapid round: things that trigger Rishi 1:34:00 - Sharp vs recreational, the bigger picture 1:40:07 - +EV and -EV moves of the week Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #ProphetX #RishiBets #CirclesOff #TheHammerBettingNetwork #WorldCupBetting #SharpBettor #SportsBettingPodcast #BettingCommunity Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rob and Jacob were on the ground at Bet Bash 2026 (August 4-7), and they're bringing back the biggest storylines from the event, including the fallout from Steve Fezzik's touting ethics seminar. Geoff missed the trip, and shares his perspective from watching it all unfold from home. The crew also dives into the latest out of the WNBA, from a player's claims of white privilege in the league to Enes Freedom and Royce White declaring for the WNBA. Plus, sportsbooks are taking an increasingly clear stance against prediction markets, and the guys break down whether it's coming from a place of genuine concern or fear of the competition. Join host Jacob Gramegna alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg on this episode of Circle Back, presented by ProphetX. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg 3:49 - BetBash Reviews & Thoughts 13:35 - BetBash Dunk Tank 24:55 - The Ethics Of Touting Seminar 35:51 - Billy Walters on PMs 44:38 - BetBash Representation 55:26 - WNBA State of Affairs 1:23:09 - Sportsbooks Challenge The Idea Of Prediction Markets 1:29:31 - Get Better, Bet Fewer Games? 1:37:40 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #BetBash2026 #CircleBack #SportsBetting #WNBA #PredictionMarkets #ProphetX #SportsBettingPodcast #GamblingTwitter #TheHammer #CirclesOff Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You project a running back for 80 rushing yards. The line is 72.5. Nearly eight yards clear — an easy over, right? By the end of this video, that same exact setup might have no bet at all. Rob Pizzola walks through the full process of turning a raw projection into an actual price — not a vibe, not a gut call, a real number you can trust. Starting from a simple two-minute version anyone can use, then building layer by layer into how the market actually prices probability, why your model's mean and the market's median aren't the same thing, and why that gap is the single most common way a good projection turns into a bad bet. By the end, you'll be able to price any prop, and every alternate line on the board, from nothing but a projection and a little bit of math. This is Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. ⬇️ Download the Excel file: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j2dlXlL1fgN4rLoI1Q_mTEFpwpnXvr0f/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=110512856455811077194&rtpof=true&sd=true INSTRUCTIONS: Once the file is open, in the top left go to File > Download > Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔴 Don't Use AI For Sports Betting Until You Watch This: https://youtu.be/ykICNBiFubg 🔴 Why Betting Without Watching The Market Is A Mistake: https://youtu.be/ZhNnPtayBoM 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - The Question Everyone Gets Wrong 1:42 - A Projection Is Not A Probability 3:30 - LAYER 1: The Two (Eight*) Minute Version 11:22 - LAYER 2: What The Market Actually Thinks 14:52 - Sponsored by ProphetX 16:41 - LAYER 2: The Player's Real Spread 19:15 - Volume vs Efficiency 23:20 - LAYER 3: The Thing That Flips Bets 29:10 - Which Props This Applies To 30:59 - Pricing Every Alternate Line 33:01 - The Honest Caveat Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #PlayerProps #NFLProps #PropBetting #BettingEducation #SharpBetting #ProphetX #CirclesOff #TheHammerBettingNetwork #NFLBetting Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The WNBA can't get out of its own way this week. The league's official account posted — then deleted — video of Paige Bueckers and Angel Reese casually discussing a $400 All-Star Weekend bet, a clear violation of the CBA's anti-wagering rules, and it's raising real questions about how a league office lets that get anywhere near publish. Meanwhile, Seattle Storm co-owner Celeste Keaton was fined and suspended for five home games after confronting two teenage fans holding signs supporting Sophie Cunningham, adding another layer to a franchise's messy week. Elsewhere in the gambling world, sports betting influencer Manny Cortez is back in the news as his lawsuit over a $500,000 Celtics championship bet moves toward a February trial — the sportsbook used his winning ticket to market itself on social media, then refused to pay him, citing his use of a third party to place the wager. And the fallout continues from Netflix's new prediction markets documentary, as the sports content platform prominently featured in the film's trailer keeps taking heat online for how it's chosen to talk about its own role in it. Porter, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Joey Knish join Jacob Gramegna to break down all of it on this week's Circle Back. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Porter - https://x.com/BAanalytics_ 🔵 Follow Knish - https://x.com/JoeyKnish22 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Isaac Rose-Berman, Porter & Joey Knish 1:17 - WNBA gambling drama 10:46 - Why does the WNBA keep doing it to themselves? 23:24 - NFL Win Totals 27:51 - Winible reacts to the Netflix documentary 34:51 - Another unjurt sportsbook stiff? 44:21 - Rufus Peabody vs. Matt Kalish 54:00 -Did they really fall off? 59:35 - Chopping block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #WNBA #SportsBetting #CircleBack #ProphetX #NBA #Celtics #PredictionMarkets #Netflix #GamblingTwitter #SportsBettingNews Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Isaac Rose-Berman was one of the featured sharp bettors in Netflix's new documentary, Instadocs: The Prediction Games — and he's here to break down everything that happened behind the scenes. In this conversation, Isaac details how he got connected to the production, what he was originally told the documentary would focus on, and how ten hours of filming got condensed into just a few minutes of screen time. He addresses the backlash to the Winnable meetup segment and whether those bettors were ever actually winning, breaks down a moment of what he calls "slightly deceptive editing" involving his own trading numbers, and gives his honest take on the framing of the "ideal counterparty" cut to a 19-year-old struggling bettor. Isaac also shares his thoughts on the overall tone of the documentary, why he felt it lacked a strong defense of prediction markets, what he wishes had made the final cut, and what he hopes viewers ultimately take away from watching it. Jacob Gramegna hosts this conversation on Circles Off, covering the World Cup trading scenes, the fee structure discussions that got cut, market maker vs. taker dynamics, and Isaac's honest assessment of whether this documentary is a fair introduction to prediction markets. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Introduction 0:47 - The Filming Experience 3:06 - The Early Sentiment 6:32 - The Final Product 11:59 - What Was Missing From The Final Product? 16:41 - The Trailer Backlash 20:12 - Reactions To The Full Release 27:35 - Dissecting Specific Moments 41:18 - The Product Overall 46:01 - What's Next? Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #PredictionMarkets #NetflixDocumentary #SportsBetting #TradingMarkets #CirclesOff Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Netflix just dropped a documentary on the prediction markets boom, and the trailer alone sparked backlash from sharp bettors and skeptics before the film even released. We break down the doc, the reaction, and what it means for the industry. Plus, LeBron James is officially a Philadelphia 76er, and we dig into the betting angle: how the Sixers' title odds shifted, the sheer volume of money traded on his next-team market, and what it says about his legacy. We also cover an Iowa bettor suing a major sportsbook for $14 million after they voided his bets on a pricing error he exploited, a fascinating look at house rules, loopholes, and where the line is drawn. Join host Jacob Gramegna alongside Rob Pizzola and Jason Cooper as they break down all the latest storylines from the world of sports betting. Circle Back is part of the Circles Off network, brought to you by The Hammer Betting Network. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Jason - https://x.com/TakesByJ OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Jason Cooper 1:26 - LeBron James signs with the Philadelphia 76ers 22:44 - Jackson Koivun wins in his third professional start 30:07 - More weekend recap in sports 41:10 - Netflix's Prediction Market Documentary 57:16 - Crazy score correction in this MLB game 1:04:37 - Sportsbooks refusing to pay "winnings" 1:16:05 - Reading your comments 1:20:09 - Chopping block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CircleBack #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #LeBronJames #Sixers76ers #NetflixDocumentary Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices