The Fourcast

Wafa Mustafa has spent years searching for her missing father, who was arrested in Syria in 2013. Before his disappearance, he gave her a chilling warning: if he was arrested again, she would have to flee the country or Bashar al-Assad’s forces would torture her. In this episode of The Fourcast, Syrian filmmaker Waad al-Kateab and activist Wafa Mustafa join Krishnan Guru-Murthy to discuss their upcoming documentary, Maybe Tomorrow, about Wafa’s search for her father, and the thousands of families still waiting for answers about loved ones who disappeared in Assad’s Syria.

As vote counts trickle in following Israel’s high-stakes national election, results indicate a stalemate. Neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing nationalist bloc nor the opposition coalition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party appear to have secured the 61-seat majority required to form a government. With both major factions falling short of a clear victory, the country faces a familiar deadlock, leaving Arab-led parties such as Hadash-Ta'al as potential kingmakers. Despite high voter turnout and full-throated campaign endorsements from US President Donald Trump, Netanyahu's bid to secure a stable coalition hangs by a thread. In this episode of The Fourcast, Secunder Kermani is joined by pollster and former Netanyahu aide Mitchell Barak, Senior Analyst from Haaretz , Esther Solomon and Adalah founder and director Dr Hassan Jabareen.

Andy Burnham came to power promising radical change, a circuit breaker for Britain’s stagnant economy. This was his first budget, meant to lay out his bold vision for Britain. But are we left thinking, is that it? Chancellor John Healey announced measures meant to ease the pressure of soaring costs, including a £100 pay out for 20 million households, a rise in the minimum wage and some tax relief for small businesses. He’s targeting banks and the gambling sector with higher taxes to fund his plans. But his opponents accuse him of kicking big decisions on defence and welfare spending into the long grass at a time when the UK is facing global turmoil driven by the conflict in the Middle East. So what are we to make of this budget? John McDonnell who was Labour’s Shadow Chancellor from 2015 to 2020 and Darren Jones, who held several key advisory roles in Keir Starmer’s government, but was sacked in Andy Burnham’s cabinet reshuffle, join to discuss for this episode of The Fourcast.

Israel is set to vote in its first election since October 7th in what could be one of the country’s most important elections ever. With Prime Minister Benjamin Natanyahu having been in power on and off, for 19 of the past 30 years, his job looks under serious threat from challenger Gadi Eisenkot. On this episode of the Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Channel 4’s Foreign Affairs Correspondent, Secunder Kermani, as well as the former deputy managing editor of the Jerusalem Post, Tovah Lazaroff. They discuss whether Donald Trump’s full-throated support for Netanyahu will help him to remain in his job? And as Israeli voters are about to head to the polls, why are the humanitarian crises in Gaza and the West Bank barely mentioned by those running for office?

With the Budget just days away, Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Chancellor John Healey face some big decisions. How much can the government afford to spend? Who should pay more tax? And how on do they get Britain's economy growing at a faster rate?But what if we're asking the wrong questions altogether?Former chartered accountant Richard Murphy argues that the government's obsession with borrowing, debt and so-called fiscal headroom is holding Britain back. He believes we have far more financial freedom than politicians would have us believe.So is Britain really running out of money? Or is it running out of ideas?On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined by Richard Murphy, Professor Emeritus of Accounting Practice at University of Sheffield Management School, and economist Vicky Pryce, Chief Economic Adviser and a board member at the Centre for Economics and Business Research.

In this special audience Q&A episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban answer your questions on the big geopolitical issues shaping our world. They ask why the West ignored Putin's aggression for so long, why Europe can't build its own rival to Starlink and whether Donald Trump's $1.5 trillion defence spending plan can rescue the US military. Do you have any burning geopolitical questions you want Matt and Mark to answer? Send us your questions by leaving them in the comments and Matt and Mark will do their best to answer them in a future episode of the Fourcast Indicators.

Argentine President Javier Milei, has declared that the Falklands “illegal foreign occupation” and that his country needs to take them back from the UK. But 44 years after Britain defeated Argentina in the Falklands War, could another invasion be on the cards? And with Britain’s military much more depleted today than in the 80s, could they even retake the islands? On this episode of the Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban speak to Chris Sabatini, the Director of the Latin America Programme at Chatham House. He says that the presence of oil near the islands, as well as his tanking popularity at home, has pushed President Milei into putting the archipelago back into the spotlight.

Is the AI bubble about to burst? And could the trillion-dollar investment boom trigger the next global financial crisis? Gary Gensler, the former head of America's financial regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), warns that a major downturn in AI investment could be just 18 to 30 months away, potentially putting banks, pensions and the wider global economy at risk. In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Gensler about why he believes the AI boom is unsustainable, whether the world could face another financial crisis like 2008, and what happens when the enormous debts funding AI data centres come due. They also discuss Donald Trump's approach to financial regulation, his family's involvement in cryptocurrency and prediction markets, and whether America's financial watchdogs are still capable of holding the powerful to account. Gensler, now a professor at MIT and host of the podcast Power and Consequences, also explains why he believes the risks posed by increasingly powerful AI systems are real, despite Trump's dismissal of AI safety concerns.

What is it like for ordinary Russians living in Vladimir Putin’s Russia at war? What do they really think? Award-winning war correspondent Åsne Seierstad has travelled deep inside Russia to find out. Her new book, Never Say War, takes us behind the propaganda to reveal a society shaped by fear, repression and the human cost of war.

Ukraine relies on the good will of two volatile American billionaires to hit Russian targets and defend their own skies - but this week that relationship with Elon Musk and Donald Trump has reached breaking point as Kyiv's access to Starlink was cut after Trump’s surprise diesel deal with Vladimir Putin. Ukraine’s defence minister says operations have been partially restored, and Musk says it’s the US government that controls the military side of Starlink, called Starshield. So what happens now? Can Ukraine survive without Musk’s technology? And, as Zelenskyy says he feels betrayed by Trump, is this a final, fatal blow in their relationship? On this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by Elisabeth Braw of the Atlantic Council to discuss.

A dramatic escalation in Yemen has plunged the Middle East into a fresh geopolitical crisis, after a series of deadly Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Arabia’s airports and oil and gas infrastructure. The long running civil war is one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. But why are the Houthis at war with Saudi Arabia? And how does it fit into the wider Middle East conflicts? In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Middle East Eye Editor-in-Chief David Hearst and investigative journalist Iona Craig, who examine the catastrophic humanitarian emergency facing over 22 million Yemenis, the formation of rival regional alliances, and whether Saudi Arabia can ever achieve a decisive victory in Yemen.

What influence does the UK still have on the world stage? And can it use it to prevent some of the world’s worst atrocities? On this episode of the Fourcast, we’re joined by the Nobel Peace Prize Laureate and member of the Standing Group on Atrocity Crimes, Oleksandra Matviichuk. From Ukraine to Sudan and Myanmar to Xinjiang - this decade has seen some of the worst crimes against humanity amid an ever more uncertain world order. Matviichuk however says that the UK can - and should - become a ‘world leader’ in the prevention of atrocities around the world - and that doing so is in our national interest.

Zack Polanski and the Green Party are facing pressing questions after Andy Burnham’s Labour held Keir Starmer’s former seat in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The result is a setback for Polanski’s hopes of challenging Labour on the left of British politics. With calls for his resignation after he declined to vote on the Green Party’s ‘Zionism is Racism’ motion, is this just a blip for the Green Party leader or is his leadership really under threat? In this episode of The Fourcast, Jackie Long spoke to Green Party’s deputy leader Rachel Millward, as well as the political correspondent from the New Statesman Megan Kenyon and pollster from More In Common UK, Luke Tryl.

In the last few days a former German spy chief has been accused of selling state secrets, a British navy sailor has been charged with espionage and now two Latvians have been picked up near a British air base in Cambridgeshire - not to mention the mysterious goings on at RAF Fairford. So are Western intelligence agencies facing a growing threat? Or was it ever thus? In this episode of the Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru Murthy and Mark Urban are joined by former national security adviser Sir Mark Lyall Grant.

The unprecedented survival of Christa Pike following a botched lethal injection in Tennessee has plunged the American capital punishment system into a deep legal and constitutional crisis. Sentenced to death at age 18 for the 1995 murder of Colleen Slemmer, Pike was scheduled to become the first woman executed by the state in over two centuries. However, after two lethal doses of pentobarbital failed to kill her, she survived and was rushed to intensive care. Pike is now reportedly conscious and speaking in hospital while handcuffed to her bed. In this episode of The Fourcast, Anushka Asthana is joined by Dr. Joel Zivot, an anaesthesiologist advising Pike's defence team, Robin Maher from the Death Penalty Information Center, and "Surviving Execution" author Ian Woods. The panel asks: Can an execution ever truly be humane, or has America reached a breaking point with capital punishment?

The sudden withdrawal of American heavy bombers from RAF Fairford back to the United States follows a major incident near the Gloucestershire airbase. Five men were arrested near the base, with the UK government saying it showed "strong indications" of state-sponsored involvement from Tehran. So why has the US pulled its bombers from the UK? Has the abrupt departure handed Tehran a tactical and propaganda victory? And what does the saga say about the UK’s special relationship with the US? On this episode of the Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Dr David Jordan from the Freeman Air and Space Institute, former senior official at the Pentagon, Jim Townsend, as well as Trita Parsi from the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

An Israel-bound Flydubai flight plunged more than 14,000 feet in just 30 seconds after the co-pilot allegedly attacked the pilot and tried to take control of the aircraft. The plane eventually landed safely in Saudi Arabia after passengers and off-duty pilots intervened, but the incident has raised urgent questions about aviation security, insider threats and whether flights to Israel now face a new kind of risk. Matt Frei and Mark Urban examine what we know so far, why Benjamin Netanyahu has compared the incident to a potential “9/11-style” attack, and what it could mean for Israel, Flydubai and airline security around the world. There is currently no evidence linking the alleged attack to Iran or a wider terrorist plot.

In a seismic ruling that has sent shockwaves through football, Manchester City have been found guilty of dozens of financial charges spanning a nine-year period from 2009 to 2018. The club were found to have systematically misstated financial accounts, arranged disguised funding through "sham" sponsorship agreements, and failed to cooperate in good faith with the league's four-year investigation. While Manchester City have denied the findings and said they plan to appeal the findings, what punishment could they face - a points deduction? Relegation? In this episode of The Fourcast, Jordan Jarrett-Bryan is joined by chief football writer Darren Lewis and football finance expert Kieran Maguire, the panel interrogates how badly the Premier League’s brand has been tarnished, what punishments the club could face, and whether the integrity of the modern game can survive.

Can John Healey deliver the growth Britain desperately needs? At Labour’s conference in Liverpool, the Chancellor promised a new age of industrialisation, more opportunities for young people and an era of political hope. But with the government under pressure to control spending, what does that mean for welfare, public investment and the economy? In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to economist Mariana Mazzucato and Times columnist Fraser Nelson. They debate how Britain can grow its economy, whether welfare reform can get more people into work, and whether the government should cut taxes and regulation or invest more heavily in public services and infrastructure.

Hundreds of thousands of people were killed in a two-year between Tigrayan forces and Ethiopia's government which ended in a peace deal in 2022. Today the trauma and fear of war creeps back in as both sides accuse each other of launching new offensives. Earlier this week the TPLF announced a new coalition alongside other militias - some of whom had previously been bitter opponents. The so-called Alliance for survival is made up of seven armed rebel groups which have been waging their own battles against the Ethiopian government in different parts of the country. Tigrayan forces have seized three airports in Tigray, and in response Ethiopian airlines have suspended all flights to the region. But why are things escalating now? Is the clock ticking for the Ethiopian government? And will Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed achieve his goal of accessing the Red Sea? To understand things better and break it all down we’re joined by Tsedale Lemma, an Ethiopian journalist and founder of the Addis Standard and Nicholas Westcott, former director of the Royal African Society.