The HC Commodities Podcast

Today, in the shadow of the US midterm elections, we discuss crude and its products. Where is crude flowing? Is there still a dieselpocalypse in our horizon? And what do traders and their trades tell us about the duration and risk of not only the conflict in Iran, but also in Ukraine and the general fragility of our supply chains? Returning to the show and in my office in person, hence the slightly different audio quality, is Emily Kyne. After her recent episode on natural gas, we return to discuss oil. She's Vice President of Commodity Strategy and Trade Analytics at ARM Energy, a leader in oil and natural gas transportation and energy management in North America For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

Today, we're discussing power demand, the US natural gas markets, satellites for commodity trading intelligence and the “momentification" of everything. Our guest is Bill Perkins, founder of a variety of companies including Skylar, the commodities hedge fund, Synmax, a satellite intelligence company, author of Die With Zero and well-known commodities personality. Skylar Capital Management have recently launched MWHS, the Skylar Electricity Futures ETF, listed on NYSE Arca. The fund seeks to provide investors with direct exposure to the U.S. electricity futures markets in ERCOT and PJM. For more on the fund visit: https://www.skylaretfs.com/mwhs . For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

Today, we return to the subject of renewables and the associated electric ecosystem - electrotech - particularly in the developing world. What is the prevalence and relevance of these technologies in power generation and consumption in the world shortly leading the Iran War? And what has that attack itself done to those trend lines? Our guest is Daan Walter, principal and energy strategist at Ember, the global think tank dedicated to the energy transition. For more on Ember visit: https://ember-energy.org or subscribe to their substack here: https://www.electrotech-revolution.com For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

HC Group's Q3 Market Review is ready for download - talent trends and moves from across the commodities sector. Download for free here: https://www.hcgroup.global/insights/market-reviews/access-q3-market-review-2026 For more on Enco Insights and the advsiors we can connect you with for short or long term projects visit www.encoinsights.com For Hyperion Search our renewables and electrotech search firm visit www.HyperionSearch.com For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

Today, we return for part two on the predictability premium - how trading organizations can boost valuations of the asset-backed organizations they're within. One of the major challenges in creating a commercial organization is translating that value to the board and addressing their questions. That's what we're tackling in part two today - how to win the mandate to build a commercial organization and how to maintain it. Our guest is Christian Lins, Partner at Oliver Wyman in their risk and trading practice, which he leads in North America, and Christian's based in Houston. For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

For commodity trading professionals, it now seems obvious that large global asset-backed producers, refiners, miners and processors should have some form of trading capability. The risks alone of having a stranded product, an unfulfilled short or being exposed to wild price swings justify it, let alone the profits, market access and intelligence these capabilities can generate. This view rarely translates to other divisions within the group, let alone to the board or shareholders. Commercial teams are seen as risky, consumers of cash and culturally suspect, while investors supposedly discount them. In this two-part series, host Paul Chapman tackles this disconnect with Christian Lins, Partner at Oliver Wyman, a global management consulting firm. Together, they explore whether investors assign real value to these capabilities and how senior commercial leaders can bridge the gap. To read Christian's paper on the subject (available on October 7th) visit: https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-culture/our-people/christian-lins.html For more on Enco Insights - our senior advisor network visit www.encoinsights.com For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

Recorded at the Canadian Crude Oil Conference on September 16 in Lake Louise, Alberta, Paul Chapman interviews Adam Waterous on the state of Canada's oil sector against a backdrop of worsening relations with the US and events in the Middle East. And what will it take to turn its enormous energy advantage into economic value. Adam is the founder, managing partner, and CEO of Watrous Energy Fund. Before founding Watrous Energy Fund in 2017, Adam spent more than two decades advising energy industry through Watrous & Co. and later Scotiabank. After spending much of his career advising others on transactions, Adam became an investor himself. Through Watrous Energy Fund, he and his team have built Strathcona Resources and Greenfire Resources into significant players in the Canadian energy industry. Adam brings a unique perspective to today's conversation: banker, deal maker, investor, and company builder. So what will it take to truly make Canada an energy superpower? For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

Today, Doomberg returns to the show. We discuss cascading events in the Middle East, Ukraine and how the global hydrocarbon shortage has shifted from crude to refined products. As US lawmakers consider a diesel export ban, how bad could this get? Further, what does the crisis mean for the midterms, and is the AI power boom sustainable? Doomberg is an independent reader-supported publication primarily on Substack covering energy, finance, and geopolitics. It's one of the most widely read finance and energy newsletters on the platform, and their work sits at the intersection of energy, finance, commodities, and politics. He modulates his voice for anonymity. Read Doomberg's Escalation Clauses for free here: https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/67e20820-4a1a-4f28-bf24-75679656ea79 For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

Data centers are the crucial rate limiting factor for the Hyperscaler's growth, and in turn, power supply is the rate limiting factor for those data centers. Who is financing that power infrastructure? How are they doing it? And indeed, what happens if there's a correction in the market or the flood of money leads to overcapacity? And what is the best analogy in historical capital cycles to examine this current infrastructure build out with? Our guest argues that it's the shale revolution. Joining me in my office in Houston is Hil Vaden, Executive Director over the Energy Capital Insights Group at S&P Global, who themselves are hosting the Financing US Power Conference on September the twenty-eighth through the thirtieth here in Houston, covering many of the topics we discuss here. Sign ups and details here: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/events/conferences/financing-us-power ? For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

Crises, outsized returns, accusations of environmental damage, missing cargoes and all the rest: corporate communications is done on hard mode in the commodities sector. Why is the sector still largely defined by anomalous events, gripping books and not its successes? And why is it so important to get communications right, not just for companies and executive teams but for the sector as a whole? Especially as more and more large corporates are building commodity trading platforms. Why is it so hard to explain to investors and shareholders why trading matters? Our guest is Will Medvei, Partner at Brunswick Group, a global communications agency where he leads the energy and resources practice. www.hcgroup.global https://www.brunswickgroup.com For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

US Natural Gas is expected to do some heavy lifting in 2026 and beyond. Powering the huge growth in domestic data centers, filling European storage and bridging the gap presented by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the damage wreaked on Qatar LNG. Europe is banking on a mild winter. Producers would appreciate a cold one in the US after multiple years of historically warm ones. And El Niño has introduced a new dimension of volatility. Joining us to discuss the US Natural Gas market and its consequence for the world is Emily Kyne , Vice President of Commodity Strategy and Trade Analytics at ARM Energy, a leader in natural gas transportation and management in North America.. For more on ARM Energy visit https://www.armenergy.com/ For more on HC Group visit www.hcgroup.global For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

The sector American renewables has undergone policy uncertainty, even whiplash. Challenging a sector already impacted by rising interest rates and infrastructure back-logs. Despite that, the renewable sector matches Europe in scale and continued to grow. Now, in a world of data centers and increasing power demand, is its fortune set to be reversed? Returning to the show, and this time in person, hence slightly different audio quality this time, is Julie McLaughlin, Managing Director and Partner at Alvarez & Marsal . Julie was last on the show in late 2023, calling for the imperative of capital discipline within the renewables sector, a call that turned out to be very prescient indeed. This time, Julie's sharing how the sector fared in the wake of that call and where it's headed. For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

Ultimately, the US faces a stark binary choice: defeat Iran or retreat. Both carry profound implications for the post-war Bretton Woods order that has shaped modern economies and the commodity flows that sustain them. Indeed, it is precisely those commodity flows that both define this binary choice and make commitment to either path so difficult. Jeff Currie, Co-Founder of 1947 Oil & Gas, returns to the show to unpack this stark reality, its consequences for the world, and why he decided to launch an oil and gas company. For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

Sand has transformed modern civilization. It is the ubiquitous commodity; in our infrastructure, in our industry and even in our personal care products. Yet due to its characteristics, the supply chain is fragmented, disastrous for our environment and often corrupt. And by a tragic quirk of geometry, desert sand is unusable meaning we wreck our riverbeds and oceans to acquire it. In this episode, author and journalist Vince Beiser joins us to discuss sand and its role in the modern world. Vince is the author of The World in a Grain - the story of sand and how it transformed civilization. For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

Today we discuss El Niño - the dramatic, periodic, shift in climate patterns, that depending on intensity and duration can have profound impacts on our world, economies, and the commodities sector. And as of right now, we are back in an El Niño and it is expected to be one of the strongest on records. What are the known impacts? And how might the state of the world today, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbate those impacts? And what could happen if we hit Super El Niño territory? Our guest is Michael Ferrari, head of research at Moby, an AI native investment platform targeted to retail investors. Michael has previously been on the show and has a stellar career at the center of data, analytics, insight, and building platforms to support that in various roles in such companies as Coca-Cola, Syngenta, Engine No. Point72, and latterly at AlphaGeo. For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

We return in a special episode to the Iranian-US war to discuss how "Real-Ekonomik" is shaping realpolitik. Nick Kumleben, Director at Greenmantle, the geopolitical risk and strategy consultancy, where Nick handles the energy and commodities portfolio, joins us to discuss the status of the war and its potential future track. We use commodities and more broadly economics to try and understand the strategies and positioning of the various participants and their allies. Who wants peace, who wants all-out war, if any and who is OK with the status quo for now. For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

Semi-conductors, microchips, are the new oil - the scarce resource on which the modern world depends. Today, military, economic, and geopolitical power are built on a foundation of computer chips. This has only accelerated with the emergence of AI. Yet, the supply chain is incredibly concentrated with just a handful of countries and companies dominating. As with oil in the previous century, chips sit at the center of geopolitics, great-power rivalry and trade, especially between the US and China. How did chips become some crucial and their supply chains so concentrated and what does it mean for all our futures? Our guest is economic historian Chris Miller, author of Chip War - The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology, the New York Times best seller. For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

Today, we are talking interest rates. The rate of interest, or the price of money, has a profound impact on the energy and commodities sector, influencing the cost of carry, the price of assets and investment decisions. The story we're about to tell is what happens to economies and societies and the energy and commodities sector when interest rates are unnaturally low, as after the global financial crisis. In this episode, recorded just prior to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse in 2023, financial historian Edward Chancellor, joined us to discuss his book “The Price of Time”. He's noted for his prescient warnings on major economic bubbles, has many awards and accolades, and described by Fortune magazine as one of the greatest financial historians alive. For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

In this episode, we discuss geomagnetic storms, extreme electromagnetic events known as coronal mass ejections that would destroy every satellite around the planet, wipe out power grids and most if not all of our electronics. The Carrington event that happened in 1859 destroyed the only electrical system at that point, the telegraph, across all of North America. An event such as that now would have catastrophic, even civilization-ending impacts. Scientists predict an event like the Carrington event happens every 100 to every 500 years. And the Carrington event is small compared to pre-history events. Yet despite the profound impact and the likelihood, public awareness remains low, there is little political action, little has been done to harden our power grid or plan for such an event. Since recording this episode in 2024, we have witnessed numerous X-class flares and geomagnetic storms triggering Northern Lights across the Northern Hemisphere. To talk about geomagnetic storms, their impact, the likelihood, the fragility of our global power grids and some solutions, is Distinguished. Professor of Electronics and Computer Engineering, Edl Schamiloglu. Edl is the Distinguished and specializes in extreme electromagnetic phenomena. For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

In 1859, illumination throughout the major metropolises of the West was powered by whale oil. Whale oil was at the center of international trade (and trade disputes). Prices were at an all time high and great fortunes had been made. Yet, in that same year, Edwin Drake started the oil rush in Titusville, Pennsylvania…and every thing changed. Quickly. What lessons are there in this first energy transition in the modern era? In this episode we dig into the history of whaling and whale oil. Our guest is historian Eric Jay Dolan, author of Leviathan: A history of whaling in America. Eric takes us through the history of whale oil. A history of the first commodity cartels (they failed too), extraordinary entrepreneurs, boom and bust, environmental exploitation and Benjamin Franklin’s taste for Spermaceti Candles. For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global