IFS Zooms In: The Economy

What has the Autumn Budget changed for households, public services and the public finances? Helen Miller is joined by IFS economists Jonathan Cribb and Max Warner to unpack the announcements and the economic outlook. They discuss the support for households, changes to taxes and energy bills, and the Chancellor’s decision to accept higher borrowing. With spending growth set to slow and difficult decisions left for next year’s Spending Review, how credible are the plans to bring borrowing down? And what does the Budget mean for living standards and the pressures facing public services? Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Image © HM Treasury Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What should we expect from the upcoming Budget? With energy prices rising, pressure on public services and government borrowing already high, the Chancellor faces some difficult choices. Recorded live at the British Library as part of the Economic and Social Research Council's (ESRC) Festival of Social Science, Helen Miller is joined by IFS economists Max Warner and Stuart Adam to discuss what might be announced at the October Budget. They explore how the government could support households facing higher energy bills, whether businesses might receive further help, and how any new measures could be funded. Could the Chancellor borrow more, raise taxes on banks and landlords, or make bigger changes to the tax and benefit system? They also discuss the pressures facing public services, the limits imposed by the government's tax pledges, and the measures they'd most like the Chancellor to avoid. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

>>> Sign up to our live event: https://ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-zooms-live-look-ahead-budget <<< The economic outlook has worsened since the spring. Inflation is expected to be higher for longer, borrowing costs have risen, and the conflict in the Middle East has added fresh uncertainty for households, businesses and the public finances. In this episode of IFS Zooms In, we examine what this means for the Chancellor’s first Budget. While the Office for Budget Responsibility may still forecast that the fiscal rules will be met, the underlying spending plans look increasingly difficult to deliver. With departmental budgets set in cash terms, higher inflation erodes their real value. Combined with pressure to increase defence spending and protect the NHS, this could leave other public services facing deep cuts - or require the Chancellor to make difficult choices on tax, benefits or borrowing. IFS researchers João Sousa and Bee Boileau explain why “headroom” against the fiscal rules is only part of the story, why credible spending plans matter, and what the Chancellor needs to set out ahead of next year’s Spending Review. This episode draws on new IFS research published as part of the 2026 Green Budget. The 2026 edition of the IFS Green Budget is funded by the Nuffield Foundation, Barclays and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) through the Centre for Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy (CPP). Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

>>> Sign up to our live event: https://ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-zooms-live-look-ahead-budget <<< Renewable energy is at the centre of the debate about Britain's high electricity prices. Some argue that wind and solar power are driving up costs, requiring expensive subsidies, backup generation and upgrades to the electricity grid. Others point to the falling cost of renewable technologies and argue that expanding them is the best way to bring down bills. So who's right? In this episode, Helen Miller is joined by IFS researcher Peter Levell and Stephen Jarvis, Assistant Professor of Environmental Economics at the London School of Economics, to explore the economics of renewable energy. They explain why gas often determines the price of electricity, even as Britain generates more power from wind and solar, and examine how investment in renewables has affected electricity costs over the past decade. They also discuss whether the government should slow down its plans to decarbonise electricity, how falling technology and battery costs could change the picture, and what growing demand from data centres might mean for Britain's energy system. This episode draws on new IFS research published as part of the 2026 Green Budget. The 2026 edition of the IFS Green Budget is funded by the Nuffield Foundation, Barclays and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) through the Centre for Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy (CPP). Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

>>> Sign up to our live event: https://ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-zooms-live-look-ahead-budget <<< The government has announced a major change to the state pension triple lock. The new system will continue to protect pensions against inflation and guarantee increases of at least 2.5%, but changes how increases in earnings feed through into the state pension over time. So how will the new triple lock actually work? Why did the existing system create a “ratchet effect” in pension spending? How does the new approach address that problem, and what role does the 2.5% guarantee still play? Helen Miller is joined by IFS economists Jonathan Cribb and Heidi Karjalainen to explain what is changing, what it could mean for pensioners and the public finances, and the questions the reform leaves unresolved. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

>>> Sign up to our live event: https://ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-zooms-live-look-ahead-budget <<< The number of people receiving disability benefits has risen sharply in recent years, pushing up government spending and prompting renewed debate about how the system should work. In this episode, Helen Miller is joined by IFS economists Eduin Latimer and Tom Waters to explain how Personal Independence Payment (PIP) works, who receives it and why claims have increased. They examine the choices facing the government as the Timms Review considers the future of disability benefits. Should PIP remain a universal cash benefit? Could more support be provided in kind? Should eligibility depend more on the severity or type of a person’s condition? And what would different reforms mean for claimants and the public finances? The discussion explores the difficult trade-offs involved in reforming disability benefits - including who receives support, what form that support takes and how much the government spends. This episode draws on new IFS research published as part of the 2026 Green Budget. The 2026 edition of the IFS Green Budget is funded by the Nuffield Foundation, Barclays and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) through the Centre for Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy (CPP). Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Social care reform has challenged successive governments for decades. Now, the government wants to create a national care service and has launched a new push to find a long-term solution. But how does social care actually work? Who currently pays for it, and why can some people face such large and unpredictable costs? What pressures does the system place on councils? And what would meaningful reform cost? Helen Miller is joined by Andrew Dilnot, former Chair of the Commission on Funding of Care and Support and former IFS Director, and David Phillips, an Associate Director at IFS, to explain the problems with England’s social care system, the options for reform and why finding a solution has proved so difficult. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Immigration is one of the most debated issues in British politics. But what impact does it actually have on the economy and the public finances? We speak to Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford and Interim Chair of the Migration Advisory Committee, and IFS economist Max Warner about how migration to the UK has changed, and what that means for the government’s finances. Which types of migrants contribute most to the public finances, and which cost the government more? How does immigration affect the wider economy? And with net migration falling sharply, what could lower migration mean for the OBR’s forecasts - and the choices facing the Chancellor at the Budget? Madeleine’s new book, What Is Immigration Policy For? , is available from Bristol University Press. This episode draws on new IFS research published as part of the 2026 Green Budget. The 2026 edition of the IFS Green Budget is funded by the Nuffield Foundation, Barclays and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) through the Centre for Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy (CPP). Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Land value tax has long been popular with economists. Unlike most taxes, it doesn’t discourage people from working, investing or building - and in theory it can raise money without distorting economic decisions. So why don’t we use it more? In this episode, Helen is joined by Stuart Adam and Ben Zaranko to explain how a land value tax would work, who would gain and lose from introducing one, and why its effects can be very different for existing landowners and future buyers. We also look at some of the big practical and political questions. Can land really be valued accurately? Would the tax be fair? Could it replace council tax, stamp duty or other taxes? And should governments capture more of the increase in land values created by new infrastructure or planning permission? Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Business rates have long been blamed for the decline of Britain’s high streets. Shops and pubs face large bills, while online retailers can operate from cheaper out-of-town warehouses. So surely cutting business rates would help? Not necessarily. Helen Miller is joined by IFS tax expert Stuart Adam and Observer economics editor Ben Zaranko to explain why business rates are widely misunderstood. They discuss who really bears the cost of the tax, why cutting rates could simply lead to higher rents, whether pubs and high streets deserve special treatment, and how a growing patchwork of reliefs and exemptions has made the system increasingly complicated. They also ask what is actually wrong with business rates - and why taxing land rather than the buildings sitting on it might offer a better solution. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

More young people than ever are going to university, but the financial stakes have also risen. Many graduates begin their careers with around £50,000 of student debt and could make repayments for up to 40 years. While some degrees deliver substantial lifetime earnings gains, others may leave graduates financially worse off than if they had not attended university. Helen Miller is joined by IFS economists Christine Farquharson and Kate Ogden to examine what the evidence tells us about the financial returns to higher education. They discuss why graduate outcomes vary so widely across subjects, institutions and students; whether low-earning courses provide value to taxpayers; and whether government should restrict funding for degrees with poor financial outcomes. They also consider how artificial intelligence and wider labour-market disruption could affect today’s students, and whether historic earnings data can reliably guide decisions about careers that may last into the 2070s. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The government has launched a new Pensions Commission, raising the prospect of significant changes to how people save for retirement. Are people currently saving enough? Should minimum workplace pension contributions rise? And what should the government do about low pension saving among the self-employed? Christine Farquharson is joined by IFS researchers Jonathan Cribb and Heidi Karjalainen to examine what future pensioners can expect. They discuss what counts as an adequate retirement income, how housing and inheritances affect people’s needs, and why the right policy may differ across generations. They also explore whether people should be encouraged to save more at particular stages of their working lives, and whether policymakers should be concerned about people drawing on their pension wealth before reaching state pension age. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Andy Burnham is preparing to enter Downing Street, but he will inherit a government facing tight fiscal constraints and a series of difficult decisions. The public finances remain under pressure, debt interest spending is high, and commitments not to raise the main rates of income tax, National Insurance or VAT limit some of the most obvious ways of raising revenue. At the same time, the new Prime Minister will need to make choices about departmental spending, defence, welfare, social care and the cost of living. How much flexibility will Burnham have over taxes, borrowing and public spending? Which commitments could be maintained, and which might need to be scaled back? And will a change of Prime Minister create space for a different economic strategy - or reveal the same underlying constraints? Christine Farquharson is joined by IFS colleagues Max Warner and Tom Waters to examine the economic choices facing the incoming Prime Minister. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Over the past few weeks, devolution has moved back to the centre of British politics. Andy Burnham has made the case for a “rewired Britain”: shifting power away from Westminster and Whitehall, creating a new “No 10 North” in Manchester, and giving local leaders a much bigger role in shaping economic policy. But what does devolution actually mean? Who would power be devolved to? What responsibilities could local leaders take on? How would they be funded? And could devolution really help the UK economy grow? Christine Farquharson is joined by Tony Travers, Professor in Practice in the LSE Department of Government, Associate Dean of the LSE School of Public Policy and Director of LSE London, and David Phillips, Associate Director at the IFS, to discuss what devolution means, how England compares internationally, whether “Manchesterism” offers lessons for the rest of the country, and what risks come with giving places more fiscal responsibility. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What makes a job “good”? Is it pay, flexibility, progression, security, purpose, autonomy, or the people you work with? Policy debates about inequality often focus on wages and getting people into work. But jobs are about much more than income. The quality of work affects people’s health, wellbeing, productivity, family life and future opportunities. In this episode, Helen Miller is joined by Jonathan Cribb and Naomi Clayton, Chief Executive of the Institute for Employment Studies, to explore what good work really means, who gets access to good jobs, and what government can do to improve the quality of work in the UK. They discuss inequalities in pay, gender and geography, the importance of progression and training, the rise of flexible and insecure work, the role of employment rights, and how trends such as AI could shape the future of jobs. This is the fourth and final episode in our series on inequality. This episode draws on work done as part of the IFS-Deaton Review, funded by the Nuffield Foundation. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The UK is one of the most geographically unequal countries in the developed world. People living in London and the South East tend to have higher incomes, higher levels of education and better health outcomes than people elsewhere in the country. But why did Britain become so regionally unequal? How much of the divide is driven by the shift away from industry and towards services? What role has public investment, infrastructure and decades of regional policy played? And what can policymakers realistically do to change things? In this episode, part of our mini-series on inequalities, we look at the scale of the UK’s regional divides, why London has become so dominant, and whether stronger cities, devolution, better coordination and more stable policy could help narrow the gap. Helen speaks with IFS economists Jonathan Cribb and Xiaowei Xu to ask what “levelling up” should mean in practice, whether improving opportunities outside London could boost national productivity, and how politicians should think about places that may not benefit directly from big-city growth. This episode draws on work done as part of the IFS-Deaton Review, funded by the Nuffield Foundation. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Around 80% of people think the gap between those on high and low incomes is too big. But only around 40% think the government should redistribute income from the rich to the poor. Why is there such a gap between concern about inequality and support for action to reduce it? In the second episode of our mini-series on inequality, we ask why people care about inequality, whether they distinguish it from poverty, and how views about luck, hard work, wealth and power shape attitudes to policy. Helen Miller is joined by Jonathan Cribb, Deputy Director at IFS, and Bobby Duffy, Professor of Public Policy and Director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London. They draw on work for the IFS Deaton Review of Inequalities, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, to explore what the British public thinks about inequality, what kinds of inequality worry people most, and what they want government to do about it. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In the first episode of our new series, we set out the big picture on inequality in the UK. We look at what has happened to income and wealth inequality and how Britain compares with other countries. But inequality is not just about money. It shapes people’s opportunities, education, health, family life and where they live. Some gaps have narrowed over time, while others remain stubbornly wide - and some inequalities in one generation can shape the chances of the next. Helen speaks with Paul Johnson and Jonathan Cribb to explore what the key facts tell us about modern Britain, what kinds of inequality we should worry about most, and where trade-offs with growth, fairness and redistribution become unavoidable. This episode draws on work done as part of the IFS-Deaton Review, funded by the Nuffield Foundation. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Britain’s public finances are under pressure. Public debt is high, borrowing remains high, and the government is spending far more on debt interest than in the past. Taxes are heading towards historic highs, while public services remain under strain and demand on the state continues to rise. In this episode, we set out the fiscal backdrop that will shape British politics over the coming years. Whoever is Prime Minister or Chancellor will face many of the same constraints: expensive borrowing, difficult spending choices and the need to get debt on a more sustainable path. Helen Miller is joined by IFS colleague Max Warner and Chris Giles, economics commentator at the Financial Times, to explain the state of the public finances, why borrowing costs matter, what the government’s fiscal rules do, how realistic current spending plans are, and whether there is any room for a future government to do things differently. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Conflict in the Middle East has pushed up energy prices in the UK. Even if the war ends soon, prices may not return to pre-war levels, and government could still face pressure to support households. But the problem runs deeper than the current crisis. Even before the latest shock, the UK had some of the highest electricity prices in the developed world. Why is electricity so expensive here? How much of the problem is down to gas? Are renewables making bills cheaper or more expensive? And if government wants to cut electricity prices, what can it actually do? Helen Miller is joined by Dieter Helm, Professor of Economic Policy at the University of Oxford, and Peter Levell, Deputy Research Director at IFS, to discuss Britain’s energy mix, the costs of renewables, net zero targets, and how policy should respond to energy price shocks. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.