Into the Futures: The commodity derivatives podcast brought to you by Freight Investor Services
Published by Freight Investor Services
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Into the Futures explores freight and commodity derivatives markets, examining how participants manage risk, price volatility and investment decisions across global commodities. The podcast features in-depth interviews with market specialists and industry experts, offering their insights on the complex world of commodity derivatives. Listeners are invited to engage with the show by submitting questions or expressing interest in participating via email at news@freightinvestor.com . Visit FIS Live: https://fis-live.com/ You can also connect with us on LinkedIn: Freight Investor Services
In this episode, we are joined by our Senior Analyst in Shanghai, Hao Pei, to discuss the key developments in the iron ore and coking coal markets during the first half of the year. We explore the factors that have driven price movements, demand and supply dynamics, and the impact of broader market trends. Looking ahead, Hao also shares his views on the key risks, opportunities and themes likely to shape both markets for the remainder of the year.
In this episode, we are joined by Robert Fig, a leading voice in the metals risk management sector, to explore the forces reshaping commodity markets in 2026. Robert shares his insights on a wide range of topics, from the conflict in the middle east to metals supply shocks, demand growth, geopolitical risks and the strategies companies can use to navigate an increasingly complex and volatile global landscape. This Episode was recorded on 10th June 2026.
Technical analysis is a method used to forecast price movements based on historical market data, such as prices and trading volumes. With origins dating back to the 17th century, it has long been used to identify market trends and support investment decisions. In today’s episode, Ed Hutton explains what technical analysis is, explores its history, discusses the importance of using candlestick charts correctly, and shows how traders can derive insights from price movements and historical patterns.
Ammonia is quickly moving back into focus—not just as a fertiliser feedstock, but as a key link between energy, shipping, and the transition to lower-carbon fuels. But while the long-term story is about green ammonia, the short-term reality is being shaped by geopolitics, gas markets, and logistics disruptions. So what’s actually driving prices today? How is the Middle East situation feeding through to physical and derivative markets? And are we starting to see ammonia evolve into a tradable market in its own right? To unpack all of this, we are joined by Dan Hayes, Business Development Manager for Coal and Ammonia at Argus Media.
The ongoing crisis in the Middle East has brought shipping back into sharp focus. From the future path of energy prices to the flow of grains through key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, uncertainty is driving renewed attention across global markets. It’s in moments like these that having a privileged point of view, what you might call a view from the engine room, can help us interpret what’s happening in real time. To help us make sense of it, we are joined by Camillo Castagnola, General Manager at York Overseas SA a grains shipping company, to take a closer look at what’s happening in the physical side of shipping.
Energy markets are once again at the centre of global uncertainty, with geopolitical tensions reshaping flows, pricing, and risk. In this episode, Giacomo Prandelli, founder of The Merchant’s News, joins us to break down how traders interpret these moments in real time. From the impact of Middle East tensions to the growing role of financial markets in price formation, we discuss how today’s traders separate signal from noise and where they are finding edge.
In this episode, we’re discussing how rising tensions in the Middle East could impact the global LNG market and, ultimately, European gas prices. Europe has become increasingly dependent on LNG imports since the disruption of Russian pipeline flows following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, a significant share of global LNG passes through sensitive shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. So the key question is: how vulnerable are LNG markets—and European gas prices—to geopolitical escalation in the region? To explore that, I’m joined today by Natasha Fielding, Editorial Manager at Argus Media, who will help us unpack the risks for LNG supply, shipping routes, and European gas markets.
Today’s guest is Albert Mackenzie from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Albert is a copper analyst and reporter who has been covering the copper market for the past four years. Before joining Benchmark, he worked in pricing at Fastmarkets, giving him a strong foundation in how metals markets function at both the transactional and structural level. In this episode, we dive into copper’s record highs and the reasoning behind the rally. We explore the apparent surplus in inventories, including what Albert calls the “invisible stock”, and what that means for the market. We also discuss copper’s growing role in AI infrastructure and electrification, and how the evolving tariff landscape could shape the next phase of the market. It’s an interesting, nuanced conversation about one of the most important metals in the global economy.
In this episode, we are joined by Thanasis Davakis founder of a risk management consultancy Just Freight with a background in mathematics and finance, and former experience at Navios developing hedging strategies. We explore the geopolitical forces shaping today’s freight markets, from Red Sea disruption and a potential Suez reopening to the possible end of the Russia–Ukraine war and growing uncertainty around global green policy. Together, we unpack how these inefficiencies and policy shifts are influencing rates, risk, and decision-making for shipowners and traders. Thanasis shares practical insights on navigating volatility, building smarter hedging strategies, and managing freight exposure in an increasingly unpredictable market. A sharp, forward-looking conversation connecting global events with real trading and shipping dynamics.
In this episode, we have our usual macro-outlook, starting with what happened in Davos, how trade is shaping the geopolitical environment and what this means for dry freight. We are then exploring the fascinating and fast-moving world of base metals. From copper that powers the clean energy transition to aluminium driving manufacturing innovation, these foundational commodities are at the heart of global industry and economic growth. Joining us is Andy Farida, Senior Analyst at Fastmarkets, bringing us his sharp insights and a clear pulse on the market, delving in the latest trends, challenges, and opportunities in the base metals space. Whether you’re an investor, an industry professional, or just curious about what’s moving these markets, Andy’s outlook will help you make sense of it all.
On the 3rd January 2026, the United States military launched Operation Absolute Resolve, an operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas. President Trump stated that the US would “run Venezuela” and that American oil companies would step in to help “fix the badly broken infrastructure”. Venezuela’s strategic importance, however, extends well beyond oil. The country holds significant reserves of a wide range of commodities, raising important economic, market and geopolitical questions. In this first episode of Into the Futures, Richard Stephenson examines the implications of recent events, the changing US foreign policy, the outlook for Venezuelan commodities, and what this could mean for global financial markets.
Hedging, Monetary Policy, and Oil Swings: Insights from FIS’s Latest Podcast This week on Freight Up, we set out to give listeners practical insights into the world of risk management across the commodity spectrum, from freight to metals to crude oil. If you’re looking to understand what’s really happening under the surface of today’s volatile markets, this episode features perspectives from professionals who operate right at that interface between price risk and real-world trade. We started with Samuel Basi, founder of Perfectly Hedged Consultancy and a former Trafigura metals trader, for a deep dive into the realities of commodity hedging in liquid and illiquid markets. From there, we heard from Carlo Boffa, a central bank watcher at Politico, on central bank decisions and how the evolving landscape of monetary policy is shaping the US dollar and, by extension, commodity prices. We wrap up with Archie Smith, oil broker, who broke down the extreme pricing swings in the oil market driven by macro shocks and geopolitical headlines, highlighting what’s front of mind for market participants right now. Some of the headline talking points this week include: the merits and pitfalls of one-to-one hedging in today’s market, with Sam exploring where hedging can reduce risk and where it might inadvertently add more. We tackled the specific challenges faced by traders and companies in less liquid markets, including practical ways to quantify risk and work with imperfect hedges—or get creative in the over-the-counter space to find coverage. Options came under the spotlight, especially with clients’ hesitancy to use them, and Sam gave practical context about why options sometimes get overlooked and when they can be a valuable part of a strategy. Companies mentioned in this episode: FIS Perfectly Hedged Consultancy Trafigura Politico LME CME SGX ICE Citadel GMI
This latest episode of Freight Up tracks the markets with a strong focus on capesize bulk carriers and the shifting opportunities in iron ore spreads. I’m Jess, and alongside Davide, I’ll be steering you through what’s been a dynamic couple of weeks across freight and commodity markets. This week, we dig into why the capesize segment has outperformed, the forces shaping paper and physical market moves, and how macroeconomic shifts in China and the West are starting to make their mark. We also welcome Ben Klang for a guided walk through the supply side changes impacting vessel values and orders, and bring in Hao Pei from Shanghai for a deep dive on iron ore and coking coal. To tie it all together, Archie Smith closes with an update on what’s shaping fuel oil and crude benchmarks, and why it’s been a sideways stretch for paper spreads. If you listen in, you’ll get a clear overview of how China’s latest manufacturing PMI numbers and consumer price dips are casting a shadow, putting a tighter squeeze on iron ore and freight rates. We cover the upturn in capes, with spot indices making their highest push yet this year, gains on FFAs, and a turnaround in Panamaxes driven by robust South American grain flows. Ben helps make sense of the slowdown in secondhand vessel sales, explaining why average vessel ages are climbing and why scrapping is nearly at a standstill, even as demand feels subdued. We break down the logic: owners are holding onto older tonnage, newbuild orders have fallen to historic lows, and low earnings are nudging many to wait for clearer regulatory and market signals before acting. This creates a backdrop of supply that’s hard to clear, explaining the persistent pressure on rates. From the commodities desk, Hao Pei explains what’s behind the compression in the MB65-P62 iron ore spread, pointing to an unusually loose supply of premium ore, increased concentrate shipments, and why investors see more upside than risk at these levels. The episode also unpacks a sharp rebound in coking coal, as policy rumours and production cuts meet sustained low demand—a situation that looks precarious but sets the stage for future price action. Finally, Archie brings the fuel oil discussion up to date: crude oil’s recent climb is reviewed alongside OPEC’s output strategies and why Singapore’s high-sulphur fuel oil spreads have cooled. There’s especial attention on arbitrage opportunities and the persistent strength of European very low sulfur fuels compared to their Asian counterparts. By the time you’ve finished listening, you’ll be able to identify the major factors currently moving the key freight indices for capes and panamaxes, understand how vessel age and supply trends are affecting rates, and spot where different market players are seeing opportunity or sitting back. You’ll come away with a clearer sense of the iron ore and coal market mechanics, and you’ll have better insight into the drivers behind recent fuel oil and crude benchmark performances. Whether you’re looking to inform a trade, better time a market entry, or just get a precise read on what’s shaping dry bulk and commodity shipping, this episode will give you the ground-level detail and wider context you need.
Iron ore has seen a sharp drop recently, and high sulphur fuel oil cracks have surged to levels not seen before—two standout moves that framed this episode of Freight Up. Hi I’m Jess, and alongside Davide and the team, we walk you through what’s really driving these changes in dry bulk freight and associated commodity markets. You'll get to listen in at how macroeconomic shifts, from British and Chinese output data to volatile US producer prices, ripple through to capesize, panamax, and supramax freight rates. We pull apart the data to give you a snapshot of who’s gaining, who’s losing, and crucially, why those shifts matter for your business or your market view. Ben Klang takes us through the past two weeks on the freight desk, describing how minor volatility in the cape market was quickly tempered as fixtures came through and macro tensions eased. If you’re watching iron ore, we cover the steep pullback, tied less to headlines and more to solid fundamentals: declining pig iron output in China, seasonal maintenance, and looming Indian monsoon slowdowns. Hao Pei shares why these are seasonal and not panic-worthy moves, even if some investors have visions of iron ore dropping into the low $70s. On oil and bunkers, Archie Smith delivers a concise summary: crude markets haven’t escaped their range, with all eyes on the upcoming OPEC meeting, while high sulphur fuel oil cracks—historically always negative—have broken into positive territory, even hitting plus $4 in Singapore. Timestamped summary 00:00 China's Industrial Growth Slows 06:25 Capesize Market Challenges Persist 07:03 Capesize Cargo Volumes Rising 11:49 "Market Shifts Impact Iron Ore Demand" 14:59 OPEC Meeting and Crude Price Outlook 16:47 Record-High Crack Spread Highlights Trends Download the FIS Live app! - https://freightinvestorservices.com/
The main story across freight and commodities over the past fortnight has been the headline-making 90-day tariff reduction between the US and China. Hi, I’m Jess, and on this episode of Freight Up, myself and Davide unpack how this policy shift has tempered volatility and delivered a short-term lift to otherwise flat markets. Ben Klang joins us after a busy run of industry events, detailing the impact on dry freight—where Capesize contracts saw a fleeting rebound before losing ground, and smaller Panamax and Supramax rates remained lacklustre. We’ll investigate the cautious optimism on the macro front, following stubborn inflation and steady US employment numbers. We'll also take a closer look at iron ore and steel markets, with regional insights you won’t want to miss. From Shanghai, Hao Pei explores iron ore’s resilience—even as tariffs shift—and the mounting influence of port logistics in Peru and ongoing maintenance cycles in China. Timestamped summary 00:00 Mixed Inflation and Market Stability 03:32 Cape Size Contract Fluctuations 08:06 Steel Tariffs Impact and Trade Dynamics 10:44 FOBCC Market Outlook Uncertain 13:24 US Steel Market Challenges 18:10 "Spot Price Drop Forecasted" Website Check out FIS Live - https://www.fis-live.com/
Markets this week have been shaped by a volley of global events, each leaving its mark on commodities and freight. We’ve seen flat performances across dry freight indexes, despite slight gains in Capesize and Panamax sectors, and a muted Supramax uptick offset by minor losses in Handys. Oil and equity markets? Responding to political developments, most notably in the US, as tariffs and policy uncertainty weigh on sentiment. If you’re following the impact of US and Canadian politics on trade, this episode provides a timely overview. Chris Hudson joins me, Davide, to break down the effects of Trump’s executive orders and tariffs on North America’s cross-border commodity trade, alongside the newly-elected Prime Minister Carney’s reaction in Canada. We flag the difficulties market participants are facing as they try to adapt to “wait and see” conditions, with S&P volatility, shifting border policy, and tariff unpredictability creating new risks. The episode also explores the knock-on effects for currencies and global commodity pricing, tracking the Fed’s interest rate stance and its implications for everything priced in dollars. You'll get a first-hand view on how global supply chains are being tested by changing political rhetoric, and what this means for iron ore, coking coal, and dry freight trends moving into May. Timestamps 00:00 Market Volatility Amid News Overload 03:36 U.S. Politics: Executive Orders & Market Trends 08:24 Trump Era Politics & Economic Insights 09:54 Trump Criticises Powell on Rates 14:41 Uncertainty in Economic Forecasting 16:49 Decarbonisation Challenges and Economic Priorities 21:46 US Tariff Easing Boosts Markets 24:14 Australian Coking Coal Market Rebounds
This podcast episode delves into the pressing topic of the current state of the freight and commodity markets, particularly in the context of the influence of Donald Trump’s administration. The discussion initiates with an analysis of recent fluctuations in key commodity prices, including significant declines in dry freight markets and iron ore values. Subsequently, I engage in a comprehensive dialogue with Richard Stephenson, CEO of Freight Fix, who elucidates the evolving dynamics of global trade patterns and the ramifications of tariffs instituted under Trump’s economic policies. We critically assess the historical context leading to the present circumstances, identifying the long-term effects of financialization and the geopolitical shifts that have emerged in response to these policies. As we navigate through these complexities, we underscore the necessity for traders and stakeholders to adapt to an increasingly interconnected and shifting economic landscape. Takeaways: The podcast discussed the recent downturn in dry freight markets, indicating significant rate drops since mid-March. Richard Stephenson elaborated on Freight Fix's analytical approach to shipping and trade, emphasizing data-driven decision-making. The conversation highlighted the impact of Donald Trump's policies on global trade, particularly tariffs and their consequences. The hosts noted the historical context of U.S. trade dynamics, tracing back to the post-war era and economic shifts. A significant point raised was the transformation of trade patterns due to tariffs, affecting traditional routes and buyer-supplier relationships. The discussion concluded with reflections on the future of trade, emphasizing the increased importance of regional collaborations over traditional dependencies. Links referenced in this episode: freightfix.com fisglobal.com Companies mentioned in this episode: FIS Freightfix Donald Trump OPEC BYD Tesla JP Morgan Pershing Square
If you’re looking to gain an understanding of how the steel industry is transforming, then this episode of "Freight Up" is for you. Hello, we're Jess and Davide, and we welcome you back to another insightful episode of Freight Up – your go-to podcast for the latest in freight and commodity markets from Freight Investor Services or as some of us know us, FIS. In our latest episode, we're diving into the dynamic world of electric arc furnaces (EAFs) and their impact on the US steel market. As we're joined by Ali Oktay, a Senior Analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, alongside our other expert guests, we'll be dissecting how the shift to EAFs is adding new steel capacity in the US and reshaping the market landscape. EAFs have been pivotal in transitioning the US steel market, adding about 20 million tons of EAF sheet melting capacity since 2017, and they offer several economic and operational benefits, including quicker production adjustments and potential lower production costs. This episode is set to provide you with deep insights into how these developments are pushing pricing ceilings and influencing future trends across global markets. One key takeaway beyond the innovation of EAFs is how global market trends and trade policies are influencing demand and supply within the US steel market. Ali discusses how recurring themes, such as trade policy, play fundamental roles in reshaping competitive contexts for US steel.
In this episode, we explore significant price fluctuations in the iron ore market with Hao Pei decoding the impacts of China's crude steel restrictions and market rumours on iron ore prices. Hello, we're Jess and Davide, and we welcome you back to another insightful episode of Freight Up – your go-to podcast for the latest in freight and commodity markets from Freight Investor Services or as some of us know us, FIS. This episode we ask why coking coal prices are being corralled or which forces in the Middle East might unsettle the stabilizing oil market? Hao unravels these subjects and offers insights into potential market trends. Meanwhile, Archie Smith tackles fuel oil market intricacies, detailing price behaviours and geopolitical factors that traders must watch. As the world shifts closer to sustainable energy solutions, our captivating battery metals segment features Abex Commodity Futures Exchange ’s Joe Raja and Sascha Lefschitz. They share with us the course of innovative futures contracts and how they're reshaping risk management, offering traders more robust tools for the evolving battery landscape. Timestamped summary 00:00 China: Deflation, Growth, and Shipping Trends 03:30 Iron Ore Market Volatility 08:36 Ukraine War Truce and Oil Impact 13:33 Rare New Futures Exchange Launch 17:02 Launching Nickel and Lithium Contracts 20:25 Comprehensive Risk Management Tool 21:51 Subscribe for Biweekly Freight Podcast Links referenced in this episode: abex.com fislive.com freightinvestorservices.com linkedin.com
This is Freight Up, the place where we unpack the labyrinth that is the freight and commodity markets. I'm Jess, one of your guides on this voyage, alongside my co-host Davide. In this episode, we'll be diving headfirst into the current resurgence of the freight market with Ben Klang, while parsing through the intricacies of iron ore's recent pullback with Hao Pei. To wrap things up, Archie sheds light on the tumultuous happenings in the fuel oil market. First up, the freight market. If you’ve been watching, you’ll know the Capesize market is on an upswing after a spell of lukewarm rates. Ben Klang spills the details on what’s driving the surge and whether it's here to stay. As we transition from freight to raw materials with Hao Pei, we dissect the iron ore market, which has seen a significant dip. Hao highlights the high production levels in Australia and Brazil that have weighed on prices and draws out the influence of macroeconomic factors, such as the ongoing trade tensions. We finish up with Archie’s view on the fuel oil market as we explore how recent moves in crude prices and geopolitical factors, like OPEC's supply decisions and increasing tariffs, have stirred volatility. Timestamped summary 00:00 Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Shifts 04:27 Cape Size Market Boosts Dry FFAs 08:52 Capesize Trading Surpasses Panamax 12:25 China's Economy: Potential Market Volatility 15:26 Iron Ore Market Strategy Awaited 16:30 Iron Ore Market Strategy 22:35 Fuel Oil Market Dynamics 23:47 Subscribe for Freight Updates
