The Fraser of Allander Institute Podcast

Participants: Chirsty McFadyen - Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute Jack Evans - Senior Policy Officer, Joseph Rowntree Foundation Anna Hirvonen - Engagement and Learning Officer, Poverty Alliance Time stamps: (00:35) Introductions (01:45) In-work poverty (03:20) Pay, hours, and other factors in low income from work (06:45) Access to childcare, transport, and housing (09:30) Policies to support those in low-paid work (19:00) What can Scotland do? (24:40) Local labour markets and demand for labour

Participants Hannah Randolph - Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute Josh Hampson - Assistant, Fraser of Allander Institute Glen Bramley - Professor of Urban Studies, Heriot-Watt University Eli Harji - Policy Lead, Scottish Federation of Housing Associations Time stamps: (00:20) How economists think about the housing market (08:40) How Britain's housing market and policy have changed (20:50) Housing affordability (28:20) The role of local government (35:00) Effective policy and international examples (42:00) Scotland's affordable housing targets (48:00) The role of housing associations (52:40) Challenges in providing sufficient social housing (1:02:00) How Scotland's affordable housing is financed (1:04:30) Demand for social housing and differences across the UK (1:10:40) More on the construction sector

Participants: Ben Cooper - Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute Chirsty McFadyen - Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute Hannah Randolph - Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute Abigail Davis - Co-Director, Centre for Research in Social Policy, Loughborough University Juliet Stone - Associate Director & Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Research in Social Policy, Loughborough University Russell Gunson - Head of Programmes and Practice, Robertson Trust Time stamps: (00:15) Introductions (01:26) How economists think about the cost of living (07:57) The Minimum Income Standard (MIS) (12:58) Building the MIS from interview data (18:09) The MIS and disability (24:54) How MIS relates to inflation measures (30:49) What policy can do to reduce the cost of living (38:23) More on policy; targeted vs universal approaches (40:57) The Minimum Income Guarantee (48:34) Cost of living vs income as drivers of poverty

Participants: Ben Cooper - Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute Chirsty McFadyen - Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute Hannah Randolph - Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute Time stamps: (0:10) Host intros (0:30) Drivers of low income (2:30) Topics in the series (3:40) What we're most looking forward to

Participants Dr Hannah Randolph (Economist, FAI) Prof Mairi Spowage (Director, FAI) Jack Evans (Senior Policy Advisor, JRF) Time stamps (0:22) Who wants to work across Scotland (3:24) Child poverty and supporting parents into work (8:09) Why focus on "people who want to work"? (13:29) How we talk about labour market status (19:26) Surveys and other sources of labour market information (26:55) What's next?

00:00:08 – 00:00:35 Introduction to podcast, guests, and research topic (community supervision & re-offending). 00:00:35 – 00:01:24 Overview of pressures on the criminal justice system: court backlogs and causes. 00:01:24 – 00:02:20 Prison overcrowding explained and current capacity issues. 00:02:20 – 00:03:14 Early release schemes and their limited long-term impact on prison population. 00:03:14 – 00:04:00 Future outlook and policy pressure (Institute for Government concerns). 00:03:36 – 00:04:27 New sentencing bill: shift toward community supervision and reduced prison time. 00:04:27 – 00:05:22 Lack of evidence on effectiveness of community supervision and motivation for study. 00:05:22 – 00:06:28 Data challenges and introduction to MoJ “Data First” initiative and linked datasets. 00:06:28 – 00:07:02 Scale and capability of the linked offender dataset. 00:07:02 – 00:08:25 Why older data is used and need for causal evidence (bias in simple comparisons). 00:08:25 – 00:10:20 Explanation of natural experiments vs randomized experiments. 00:10:20 – 00:11:13 Introduction to the 2015 Offender Rehabilitation Act (ORA). 00:11:13 – 00:13:02 Natural experiment setup: cutoff date creates comparable supervised vs unsupervised groups. 00:13:02 – 00:14:21 Method: comparing re-offending outcomes across groups using linked data. 00:14:21 – 00:15:46 What community supervision involves (probation, restrictions, rehabilitation focus). 00:16:02 – 00:17:09 Main findings: supervision reduces re-offending (short-term impact). 00:17:09 – 00:17:30 Long-term effects: persistent reduction in re-offending even after supervision ends. 00:17:30 – 00:18:44 Who benefits most: stronger effects for first-time prisoners. 00:18:44 – 00:19:27 Why effects fade over time and importance of supervision duration. 00:19:27 – 00:21:00 Effects for repeat/prolific offenders and role of recall to prison (incapacitation effect). 00:21:00 – 00:22:18 Behavioural mechanisms and role of recall threat. 00:22:18 – 00:23:34 Context: high baseline re-offending rates; supervision helps but isn’t a silver bullet. 00:23:34 – 00:25:37 Policy implications: supervision vs prison and impact on overcrowding. 00:25:37 – 00:26:05 Long-term benefits via preventing repeat offending among first-timers. 00:26:05 – 00:27:37 Where to find research outputs (ADR UK, blog, dashboard).

In the final episode of our election analysis series, Mairi Spowage and João Sousa of the Fraser of Allander Institute and Ed Poole and Guto Ifan of the Wales Governance Centre come together to discuss what the results of the elections in Wales and Scotland mean for governing arrangements, and what the next steps are in the Senedd and Scottish Parliament sessions. **This work is supported by the Nuffield Foundation. The Nuffield Foundation is an independent charitable trust with a mission to advance social well-being. It funds and undertakes rigorous research, encourages innovation and supports the use of sound evidence to inform social and economic policy, and improve people’s lives. The Nuffield Foundation is the founder and co-funder of the Nuffield Council on Bioethics, the Ada Lovelace Institute and the Nuffield Family Justice Observatory. Find out more at: nuffieldfoundation.org. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Foundation.**

**Please note that this recording is in Welsh - check out our other podcast episodes and our websites for analysis in English.** This is a recording of the event held by the Wales Governance Centre in Bangor on 21 April, discussing the main talking points in the Senedd election. **This work is supported by the Nuffield Foundation. The Nuffield Foundation is an independent charitable trust with a mission to advance social well-being. It funds and undertakes rigorous research, encourages innovation and supports the use of sound evidence to inform social and economic policy, and improve people’s lives. The Nuffield Foundation is the founder and co-funder of the Nuffield Council on Bioethics, the Ada Lovelace Institute and the Nuffield Family Justice Observatory. Find out more at: nuffieldfoundation.org. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Foundation.**

Timestamps: (0:05) Introductions (1:14) Income tax proposals (6:21) Land transaction tax (9:12) Spending proposals on childcare (12:36) Costings of proposals (18:00) Crown Estate devolution (21:43) Social security devolution

Timestamps: (0:05) Introductions (1:18) Rows about costings publications in Wales (6:06) Costings publications in Scotland (9:56) The effect of List PR on the manifesto contents (14:30) Current vs capital block grants (16:52) What we can expect in the coming week

Timestamps: (0:06) Introductions (1:57) Health's place in the Welsh Government's budget (5:48) Performance of the Welsh NHS (10:51) Productivity challenges (15:31) The challenges of moving to a prevention model

Timestamps: (0:05) Introductions (0:46) The level of detail of the manifestos (9:47) Costings in the manifestos (16:44) The SNP's food price cap (18:39) Reform's plan to bring in half a million people into the labour market

Timestamps: (0:05) Introductions (1:20) Reflections from the event in Bangor (2:49) Reflections from the event in Edinburgh (5:31) Mutual investment model and proposals in Wales (8:09) Fiscal framework (13:27) Appetite for further devolution of income tax in Wales (17:19) Council tax revaluation

Timestamps: (0:05) Introductions (1:55) Tuition fees and the higher education funding landscape in Scotland (11:59) The future sustainability of Scotland's universities (14:29) Further education funding in Scotland

Timestamps (0:05) Introductions (0:42) Health spending over the last Scottish Parliament term (7:59) The increase in procurement spending (11:12) Parties' proposals for health (19:31) The National Care Service bill (25:42) Parties' proposals for adult social care

(00:00) Welcome and episode overview (01:02) Meet Ed Roddis and Lesley Smillie (03:44) What is the State of the State report? (10:11) The big takeaway for Scotland in an election year (11:32) Public priorities: cost of living, healthcare and immigration (18:44) How Scotland compares with the rest of the UK (21:06) Public satisfaction with services and pressure on the NHS (29:14) The mood among public sector leaders (36:19) Is there a real opportunity for public service reform? (38:04) AI, digital transformation and the future of public services

Timestamps (0:06) Introductions (1:27) The SNP price cap plan for 'essential' foods (5:28) The campaign in Wales this week and the Welsh Lib Dems manifesto (7:07) Tax policy and unwillingness to confront fiscal trade-offs (11:20) The remaining Scottish manifestos from the week (15:13) What's been left unsaid

Timestamps: (0:05) Introductions (1:25) Scotland's child poverty targets (5:15) Devolved and reserved social security systems (8:32) Child poverty delivery plan (13:00) Scottish Child Payment

Timestamps: (0:05) Introduction and the overall funding challenge (3:30) The wider role of universities in local economies (6:33) International students (9:49) Difference in funding between Wales and the rest of the UK (19:44) Proposals from the different parties so far

Timestamps (0:06) Introductions (1:00) Welsh developments: Plaid Cymru and Welsh Green Party manifestos (2:26) Childcare proposals in Wales (8:49) Scottish developments: Scottish Conservatives manifesto (17:16) Efficiency proposals in Scotland