Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Shahin Vallée is a former advisor to the President of the European Council (Herman Van Rompuy) and to the French Minister of Economy (Emmanuel Macron). He is also a researcher in political economy at DGAP (German Council on Foreign Relations) and a leading economic and political analyst. In this podcast, we discuss: French Budget vs. Political Crisis The Far-Right vs. Far-Left Runoff Scenario French Polling Mechanics & Constituency-Level Risks Le Pen's Fiscal Rule & Brussels Confrontation Mélenchon's Surge & Centrist Fragmentation General Election Scenarios & Governance Gridlock ECB Interventions & German Political Friction 2027 ECB Leadership Transition & European Risks

Tomasz Nadrowski is a portfolio manager at the Amvest Terraden Critical Minerals Fund. He was a former Director at the World Economic Forum and Vice President of Business Development at AngloGold Ashanti, then the world's largest gold producer. Tomasz has spent over fifteen years managing commodity and mining equity portfolios for hedge funds and family offices across the U.S., Europe, and Asia. He is fluent in seven languages and a regular contributor to Oxford Analytica. He combines deep industry knowledge with a strategic understanding of how resources, markets, and power intersect in today's shifting geopolitical landscape. He is also the host of the podcast Tyranny Today. In this podcast, we discuss: End of Pax Americana & Asymmetric Tech Vulnerability of Maritime Chokepoints The Sword Over the Shield (Wars of Attrition) Western Re-Industrialization & Refining Bottlenecks Rise of Western Hemisphere Energy Dominance China's Critical Mineral Valve & "Game of Chicken" Russian Gray-Zone Warfare in Europe AI as Human "Unburdening"

Alex Edmans is a Professor of Finance at London Business School and is one of the world's leading academics on company purpose, social value, and profit. Alex has a PhD from MIT as a Fulbright Scholar and was previously a tenured professor at Wharton and an investment banker at Morgan Stanley. In this podcast, we discuss: Amateur vs. Professional Behavioural Errors Direction Right, Speed Wrong in AI and Tech Bubbles The Limits of Contrarian Strategies Herding Mechanics and Social Network Traps Slow Uptake on Corporate Intangibles Subtle C-Suite Tells: AGMs and Corporate Jets Arithmetic Misreactions and Narrow Framing The Anchoring Trap & Disposition Bias Overconfidence in Amateur Stock-Picking Exploiting a Long Investment Horizon

Paul Cavey is a China-focused Asia economist with twenty-five years of experience covering the region. He runs East Asia Econ. Previously, he was a macro strategist in the global bond team at Wellington Management, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities and chief China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. In this podcast, we discuss: AI Hardware Demand & Regional Supply Chains Taiwan's Real GDP Expansion vs. Korea's Terms-of-Trade Shock Taiwan's Negative Real Interest Rates & Inflation Outlook East Asia's Resilience to Global Energy Shocks Bank of Korea Policy Hikes & Won FX Dynamics Japan's Fiscal Revenue Boom & Manufacturing Catch-Up BOJ Policy Path, Persistent Inflation, and Yen Weakness China's Property Slump & Incremental Credit Easing China's Auto Export Surge & Sovereign Tech Stack Sovereign Balance Sheet Divergence & CGB Market Dynamics

Apurv Jain is the Founder and CEO of MacroX , a San Francisco-based startup building a real-time measurement layer for the global economy using alternative data. Before MacroX , Apurv built machine-learning investing systems at Microsoft, traded FX derivatives at Deutsche Bank, and worked at Bridgewater Associates. His research experience spans Microsoft Research and Harvard Business School, with publications and invited talks across academia, central banks, and global forums including Davos and the World AI Summit. He holds degrees from Georgia Tech and the University of Chicago and is passionate about mixed martial arts. In this podcast, we discuss: Official Data Lags & Declining Survey Response Rates 1,000+ Alternative Data Pipelines for Macro State Mapping Real-Time Worker Bargaining Power vs. Lagged Wage Metrics Multimodal AI: CNNs, BERT, and Targeted LLM Workflows Nowcasting Lead: Gaining 2–3 Months Ahead of Official Prints Next-Generation Nowcasting vs. Atlanta Fed GDP Models Why the 2023 Yield Curve Recession Signal Failed Current US Economic State & The "K-Shaped" Consumer Portfolio Integration for Fundamental & Systematic Investor s

Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy . In this podcast, we discuss: The Tripolar World & Spending Super Cycle US Valuati on "Haircut" vs. Non-US Bargains Reframing Bearish Narratives & High Nominal Growth European Plays: Financial Consolidation, Spain, and Poland Emerging Markets, China's Tech/Biotech, and Brazil Rate Cuts Energy Security, Clean Energy Adoption, and Battery Plays US Midterm Outlook & Policy Incoherence Year-End "Face Ripper" Rally & Answering AI ROI

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss: $100 Brent and Historic Backwardation The Global Refined Product Crisis Hormuz "Shuttle Trade" and War Insurance Costs The Red Sea Chokepoint and Houthi Threat Russian Refinery Attacks and Fuel Export Bans China's Import Cuts and Hidden SPR Release China's Potential Winter Refining Bailout US Midterm Dilemmas and Export Ban Risks India's LPG Crisis and Offshore SPR Deals US Equity in Venezuela and Heavy Crude Spreads Canada's Westward Pipeline Push

In this solo episode, Bilal flips the script to pull back the curtain on his personal research workflow, addressing a surge of questions from peers on how to effectively apply AI to financial market analysis using six core principles. Some key points include: Machines Speaking Human The "CLEAR" Prompting Framework Gold-Standard Human Evaluation Converting Prompts to "Skills" Custom Session Memory & Feedback Loops Delegating to "Co-Work" Agents Reliable Market Analysis via RAG

Dominique Dwor- Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds , including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" Labour Puzzle The Imported AI Capex Illusion Chips as the New Oil Supply Shock The K-Shaped Consumer & GFC-Level Delinquency The Fragile Savings Rate Cushion The Return of FOMC Dissension The Waller Swing Vote & the 2026 Rate Path The 2027 AI De-escalation Surprise

Jon Turek is the founder and CEO of JST Advisors, a hedge fund advisory service that publishes a weekly research note with global macro trade ideas. JST Advisors works closely with hedge funds on developing asymmetric macro trade ideas and market themes. Outside of JST Advisors, Jon worked as a portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and as an analyst at Moore Capital. In this podcast, we discuss: The Substack Divide of Equities vs. Macro The Buy-Side Paradox of PM Asymmetry and Pod Reality The "Owl" Fed and Political Optimisation over Conviction The Trillion-Dollar AI Fiscal Program The Death of the 2010s Savings Glut Treasury Buybacks and "Whack-A-Mole" Markets Europe's Impending China Tariff Shock The Simmering Geopolitical In-Between for Oil

Branko is a research professor at the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality at the City University of New York. He received his Ph D from the University of Belgrade in 1987 and served as lead economist in the World Bank's Research Department for almost 20 years, leaving to write his book on global income inequality, Worlds Apart . He later worked at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, the University of Maryland, Johns Hopkins University , All Souls College in Oxford, and Universidad Carlos III in Madrid . Branko's main area of work is income inequality. He is the author of several books – the most recent one being The Great Global Transformation . In this podcast, we discuss : The Shift to National Market Liberalism The Geopolitical and Personal Impact of China The Rise of " Homoplutia " The "Folksy Elite" and Meritocratic Ideology India's Alternative Development Model Europe's Strategic and Economic Paradox The Policy Dilemma of the "Elephant Chart" Elite Multiplication and Youth Anxiety

Paul Krake is an investor, strategist, and independent researcher with three decades across macroeconomics, policy, and capital markets. In 2011 , he founded the research platform View from the Peak after macro roles at Corus Capital, Caxton Associates, Moore Capital, Goldman Sachs, and Macquarie Bank. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Post-Cyclical" Economy The Reduction of Economic Friction Margins vs. Labour Share The Path to 10% Unemployment The "Lucas Tree" Multiple Problem Golden Age of Equity Investing The "55-Year-Old Man" Advantage Advice for Graduates: Atoms vs. Bits

Eric Beinhocker is a professor at the University of Oxford's Blavatnik School of Government and the founder and executive director of the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School (INET Oxford), a research center dedicated to applying innovative economics to major societal challenges. He is also Chairman of the Science Board at the Santa Fe Institute. Prior to his academic career, Beinhocker spent three decades as a technology entrepreneur, venture capitalist, and consultant to Fortune 500 companies. He is the author of The Origin of Wealth: The Radical Remaking of Economics and What It Means for Business and Society. The Collapse of Neoliberalism The "Market Humanism" Synthesis From Homoeconomicus to Homo Sapiens Markets as Evolutionary Engines Value as Problem-Solving The Structural Reality of Inequality "Middle-Out" vs. "Trickle-Down" Growth The State as a Market Shaper Macrocosm: Mode l ling the Economy with AI Human Skills in the Age of AI

Marvin Barth is the creator of Thematic Markets and Seriously, Marvin?! . Thematic Markets is rigorous, institutional-quality research aimed at market professionals, while Seriously , Marvin?! presents more accessible takes on contrarian musings Marvin doesn't have time to research at Thematic Markets . Both publications benefit from the uniquely broad perspective on the global political economy Marvin has gained from a three-decade career spanning nearly every asset class, academia, central banking, finance ministry, and international institutions. This includes working at Barclays Investment Bank, Citi, the Federal Reserve Board, the U.S. Treasury Department, and the Bank for International Settlements. The Locali s ation Thesis Manufacturing vs. The AI "Bubble" The Labour Disconnect (Poetry vs. Welding) Trump 2.0: Preparedness and Instincts The Iran War and American Exceptionalism The Fed's "Neutral Rate" Error The Rise of Kevin Warsh The Brexit Reality Check Andy Burnham: The "Low Delta Call Option"

Dr Clarida is a managing director and global economic advisor at PIMCO. Prior to rejoining PIMCO in 2022, he was the firm's global strategic advisor from 2006 to 2018. He served as Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System from September 2018 to January 2022. Richard is also Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Columbia University. Before joining PIMCO in 2006, he was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, in which he served as chief economic advisor to two U.S. Treasury Secretaries. Earlier in his career, he was with Credit Suisse and Grossman Asset Management. He has 26 years of investment experience and holds a PhD and a master's degree in economics from Harvard University. He received an undergraduate degree with Bronze Tablet Honors from the University of Illinois. In this podcast, we discuss: Clarida's Macro Origin Story Global Economic Resilience The AI Capex Boom Labour's Declining Income Share The "Warsh Fed" Doctrine Revisiting Forward Guidance AI's Impact on Productivity and R-star The Era of Global Fragmentation Optimism for the Next Generation You can follow Richard on LinkedIn as well as the PIMCO website .

Brendan Greeley has spent twenty years as a journalist, covering economic and monetary policy. He was the US economics editor at the Financial Times and continues to write a regular column there. Before that, he was a staff writer for Bloomberg Businessweek and The Economist , as well as an anchor and correspondent for Bloomberg TV . He has also written for The New York Times , The New York Times Magazine , and The Wall Street Journal Europe , and received a New York Press Club Award for special event reporting. Brendan graduated from Tulane University with honours in German. He is currently completing a PhD in financial history at Princeton University. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Ancient Dollar's" Bohemian Roots Skepticism of Monetary Sovereignty The Constitutional Shift to Private Banking Nationalising Money via the Civil War The Primacy of Federal Deposit Insurance Endogenous Money: How Banks Create the Dollar The Rise of the Offshore Eurodollar Market Stablecoins as " Schmanks " (Unregulated Banks) Career Longevity and the "Turn-Taking" Marriage

Matsuoka-San is the Chief Economist of SBI Securities in Japan. Before that, he was the Chief Economist for Japan at Deutsche Bank. Overall, he has been involved in macroeconomic analysis at research institutions and financial institutions for the past 30 years. He is known to be one of the leading Japan economists with unique insights on structural issues. Over the years , he has been highly ranked in numerous surveys , including the Institutional Investor survey. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Inconvenient Mix" of Inflation Japan's Real Neutral Interest Rate The Case for Nominal GDP Targeting Consumption Tax: Regressive Relief? Wage Growth Divergence The Working Hours Trap Fiscal Dominance and Vulnerability The Enigma of Yen Weakness Work-from-Home and Birth Rates Erosion of the US Dollar's Premium The AI/Semiconductor "Vertical Jump" US vs. Japan: Labo u r Participation Trends

Stefan Jansen is the founder and CEO of Applied AI. He advises Fortune 500 companies, investment firms, and startups across industries on data & AI strategy, building data science teams, and developing end-to-end machine learning solutions. Before his current venture, he was a partner and managing director at an international investment firm, where he built the predictive analytics and investment research practice. He was also a senior executive at a global fintech company with operations in 15 markets, advised Central Banks in emerging markets, and consulted for the World Bank. In this podcast, we discuss: Defining AI as a Moving Target The Trading vs. Business Data Science Divide Synthetic Data and the "Fat Tail" Challenge Shapley Values: Turning Black Boxes Grey Agentic AI and Unstructured Data RAG, Provenance, and the Context Window Debate The "Alpha Factory" Workflow Reinforcement Learning (RL) for Execution, Not Prediction The Critical Role of Human Context Advice for the AI-Native Job Market

William W. Beach is the Senior Fellow in Economics at the Economic Policy Innovation Center (EPIC) and the Coffin Fellow at the Calvin Coolidge Presidential Foundation. Beach also serves on the UKG Workforce Institute Advisory Board. Prior to these appointments, Beach was the fifteenth Commissioner of Labor Statistics at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington, DC. He took up his duties there on March 28, 2019. Prior to joining BLS, Dr. Beach was vice president for policy research at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University from February of 2016 to March of 2019; and, prior to that served as the Chief Economist for the Senate Budget Committee, Republican Staff, from 2013 through early 2016. In this podcast, we will discuss: The "Fiscal Precipice" The "Crowd Out" Effect Social Drivers of Debt The "Undemocratic" Tax System The Social Security Countdown The Future of "Enhanced Labour" The Data Response Crisis Modernising Federal Statistics

Martin Wolf is the chief economics commentator at the Financial Times in London. He was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000 ' for services to financial journalism ' . In this podcast, we disc uss: AI: The Ultimate General-Purpose Technology Market Complacency in the Middle East Jay Powell's "Superb" but Flawed Legacy The "Perverse" Risks of Kevin Warsh The UK's Productivity Puzzle and Brexit From "Democratic Recession" to Depression The "Graduate Trap" and Disaffected Youth Advice for the Next Generation