Independent Thinking

Israel faces weeks of political horse-trading after the most pivotal election in the country's history delivered no clear result. Neither victorious nor vanquished, Benjamin Netanyahu is still prime minister and lives to attempt another coalition negotiation – and perhaps launch further strikes on Iran to shore up his interim power. Arab parties have secured a record number of seats, but the question remains whether opposition Jewish parties will enter a coalition with them. Will anyone do a deal with Netanyahu? What does it all mean in a deeply polarized society riven by settler violence, personality-centred politics and with a seemingly permanent security emergency? To examine the election results and what they mean for Israel's future, Bronwen Maddox is joined by The Economist's Israel editor Anshel Pfeffer, plus Zizette Darkazally and Yossi Mekelberg from Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Explore Chatham House's latest work: Video | Israel election: What happens next? Magazine article | Israel's global isolation is growing – so why is it off the election agenda? Policy paper | The UK can and should show leadership to ensure the viability of a Palestinian state. Here's how to start Magazine issue | The World Today autumn issue Academic Journal | International Affairs Audio | Africa Aware 🎧 Audio | The Climate Briefing 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

As the world becomes more unstable and the demands for critical minerals from China and big tech increases, can greater international attention on Africa translate into greater power and prosperity for African nations? Can African states leverage their huge deposits of natural resources and the youngest population in the world into more infrastructure, better engagement with international partners and greater representation for Africa on international bodies, including the UN Security Council? Our experts explore the new global opportunities for African nations, the increasingly transactional approach of the US, trade deals with the EU, the Accra Reset, creating regional value chains, Russia's involvement in conflicts in Africa and why international organizations need to open up their decision-making bodies. In a special edition for Black History Month, Bronwen Maddox is joined by Tighisti Amare, director of our Africa Programme, and Lisa Musumba, host of our sister podcast, 'Africa Aware'. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Explore Chatham House's latest work: Video | Baroness Amos, President of Chatham House, speaking at a Black History Month event in mid-October about 'Reparative justice' Research paper | The response to debt distress in Africa and the role of China Research paper | Gold and the war in Sudan Event | Ghana's President John Dramani Mahama on navigating a changing global order Event recording | Reckoning or rhetoric: Is now the time for reparative justice on the global stage? Magazine issue | The World Today autumn issue Academic Journal | International Affairs Audio | Africa Aware 🎧 Audio | The Climate Briefing 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

President Trump and President Putin's back-door deal to release hundreds of thousands of tonnes of Russian diesel into international markets has revitalized the Kremlin's war effort and left President Zelenskyy incandescent. Is the US president sacrificing Ukraine in the hope that it will help him in the midterms? Can Europe bridge the gap in support? And can Ukraine survive another winter under Russian attack? Bronwen Maddox is joined by Orysia Lutsevych, deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Programme and head of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House; General Sir Richard Barrons, former commander of the Joint Forces Command in the UK Armed Forces and a senior consulting fellow with our International Security Programme; and Sharon Hudson-Dean, associate fellow with Chatham House's US and North America Programme. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Comment | After Trump's Russian diesel deal, will Europe give Ukraine the support it needs? Comment | Why the US midterms are a rare foreign policy election Research paper | Why a 'whole-of-society' model is essential for Ukraine's recovery Magazine issue | The World Today autumn issue Academic Journal | International Affairs Audio | Africa Aware 🎧 Audio | The Climate Briefing 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

The rightward movement in democracies in Europe and beyond shows little sign of slowing. Germany has elected its first far-right regional government in Saxony-Anhalt. In France, voter anger with Emmanuel Macron puts the Rassemblement National's Marine Le Pen in pole position for the presidency. In Spain, Pedro Sánchez called a snap election in an attempt to mobilise the beleaguered left around Spain's housing crisis. And Flávio Bolsonaro's success in the first round of Brazil's presidential elections suggests a second round of anti-woke, pro-Trump bolsonarismo is on the cards. What is driving politics to the populist right? And what does it mean for global security, stability and efforts to preserve what's left of the rules-based order? Bronwen Maddox is joined by Grégoire Roos, director of our Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programmes; Nic Lawley, special adviser to the director of Chatham House; and Dr Christopher Sabatini, director of our Latin America Programme. Produced by Podmasters, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell. Explore Chatham House's latest work: Comment | Sánchez's gamble: This 'all-in' election will have international impact Comment | Brazil's presidential election is more than just another polarized contest Comment | Brazil's Amazon rainforest is at risk if Bolsonaro wins – but its low-carbon economy is here to stay Magazine issue | The World Today autumn issue Academic Journal | International Affairs Audio | Africa Aware 🎧 Audio | The Climate Briefing 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

The Iranian-backed Houthi rebels' capture of Yemen's port city of Mocha means that Iran now effectively controls two crucial waterways in the region – the Bab al-Mandab Strait to the Red Sea and thus the Suez Canal, as well as the Hormuz Strait. Why has this simmering conflict exploded again? What do Iran and the Houthis want? How serious is this potential blockade for world trade and energy supply? And could the Houthis become a regional power, in economic terms even more powerful than Iran? Bronwen Maddox is joined by director of Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme, Dr Sanam Vakil; Horn of Africa specialist Ahmed Soliman; and Yemen and Gulf specialist, Farea Al-Muslimi, who joins us from Jordan. Produced by Podmasters, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell. Explore Chatham House's latest work: Comment | New energy and trade routes could bypass Hormuz and change the Middle East. But major challenges remain Magazine article | Farea al-Muslimi: 'I wrote my own death statement 5 times' Comment | Escaping the Hormuz trap: What should an agreement to reopen the Strait look like? Magazine issue | The World Today autumn issue Audio | Africa Aware 🎧 Audio | The Climate Briefing 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

President Donald Trump welcomes Xi Jinping to Washington with the US-China dynamic in a moment of historic flux. China is rising economically and militarily, while the US is mired in the Iran war, alienating allies and pursuing Trump's unpredictable trade and tariff disputes. What do the two leaders want from this meeting, and will they get it? Can they reconcile their differing economic powers, the competition for critical minerals, and their radically contrasting visions for artificial intelligence. And in the longer term: who will dominate the 21st century? Does Xi really want to retake Taiwan for China before his time in power ends? Or is the US-Chinese dynamic more complex and perhaps less alarming? To unpick these threads Bronwen Maddox is joined by three experts from Chatham House's Asia-Pacific Programme: programme director Ben Bland, senior research fellow Dr Yu Jie and associate fellow Dr Bill Hayton. Produced by Podmasters, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell. Explore Chatham House's latest work: Magazine article | What the West fails to grasp about China's strategy to lead the world Comment | Trump–Xi summit: Why the US and China should not underestimate each other Comment | China is weathering the Hormuz energy crisis. But copying its model comes with risks Magazine issue | The World Today autumn issue Audio | Africa Aware 🎧 Audio | The Climate Briefing 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

A call by leaders of the tech giants on the frontier of Artificial Intelligence to 'slow the pace' of its development has sparked debate over the risks associated with AI. Does AI represent an existential threat, and if so, how urgent are the warnings? Or can humanity harness this powerful technology to our benefit? Our experts discuss the implications for international security, from cyber to the increasing use of AI in today's conflict zones, and the dynamics of the race toward the cutting edge – not only among industry competitors, but also in the realm of geopolitics. Bronwen Maddox is joined by Dr Marion Messmer, director of our International Security Programme, and Alex Krasodomski, director of our Digital Society Programme. Produced by Podmasters, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell. Explore Chatham House's latest: Magazine article | UK's armed forces can keep control of their AI kill switch – here's how Magazine article | 'We are at a moment of peril with AI ... The sooner [it is regulated], the better' Policy paper | How AI could change the world Magazine issue | The World Today autumn issue Audio | Africa Aware 🎧 Audio | The Climate Briefing 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

Twenty five years ago the deadliest terrorist attacks in human history, on 11 September 2001, saw 2,977 people killed in New York, Washington, and aboard the planes hijacked by 19 members of Al-Qaeda. An immediate response followed with the US-led 'war on terror', which saw Western forces occupy Afghanistan and Iraq, and two decades of military operations across the Middle East and beyond. We look back over a quarter of a century to examine the longer-term consequences of 9/11. We examine how US foreign policy and military power changed perceptions of America and its allies. We look at the consequences for a Middle East still riven by conflict. And we discuss how the focus on counterterrorism left the US positioned to deal with a new multipolar era in which it faces challenges from Russia and the rise of China. This week's episode is hosted by Laurel Rapp, director of Chatham House's US and North America Programme, standing in for Bronwen Maddox. She is joined by General Sir Richard Barrons, a senior consulting fellow with the International Security Programme. Also by Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme. And by Jason Burke, International Security Correspondent of the Guardian. Produced by Podmasters, with thanks to Stephen Farrell. About Independent Thinking Independent Thinking is a weekly international affairs podcast hosted by our director Bronwen Maddox, in conversation with leading policymakers, journalists and Chatham House experts providing insight on the latest international issues. More ways to listen: Apple Podcasts and Spotify . Explore our other Chatham House podcasts .

The United Nations convenes for its 81st General Assembly next week amid turmoil around the world that it seeks to bring together. The conflicts in Iran, Ukraine and Gaza, and the US, China and Russia's undermining of the rules-based international order cast a shadow over UNGA. Can the organization renew itself for a dangerous multipolar world? Or is it doomed to the same fate as the League of Nations? Bronwen Maddox discusses the UN's present and future with Heather Hurlburt, associate fellow with our US and North America Programme; Marc Weller, head of our Global Governance and Security Centre; and Zizette Darkazally, associate fellow with our Middle East and North Africa Programme. Produced by Podmasters, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell. Explore Chatham House's latest: Research paper| What Haitians want from the next phase of UN and international support Comment | Can the UN close the global AI gap? Policy paper | What the Burnham government should do in its foreign policy Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | Africa Aware 🎧 Audio | The Climate Briefing 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

It's been a tumultuous year in the Middle East – and it's far from over. Six months after the US and Israel launched their offensive against Iran, the conflict continues to disrupt trade, energy and food security. President Trump struggles to escape a deadlock that threatens to seriously damage him in the American mid-term elections. Meanwhile, Gaza remains locked in a humanitarian crisis despite a ceasefire, while Israel faces growing political division ahead of an October election that will determine Benjamin Netanyahu's fate. As leaders wrestle with security, alliances and the fallout from multiple conflicts, we discuss the future of a troubled region. Bronwen Maddox is joined by director of Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme, Dr Sanam Vakil; associate professor in politics and international relations at UCL, Dr Julie Norman; and Israeli politician and journalist, Ksenia Svetlova. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell. Explore Chatham House's latest work: Policy paper| What the Burnham government should do in its foreign policy Comment | Should Egypt join the Mecca Pact? Comment | Nigeria will need more than a bigger army to tackle security challenges Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | Africa Aware 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

The climate crisis has seldom been dramatized so vividly as in the summer of 2026. Apocalyptic fires, widespread droughts and drained rivers in Europe made clear a worsening situation that even the most fervent denier can't wave away. But is there the necessary time, commitment and technology to slow or reverse the climate spiral – even in the face of a US administration that is committed to fossil fuels? How do the two approaches of mitigation and adaptation translate into real life on the ground? And is there any good news amid the smoke and gloom? Bronwen Maddox is joined by water and climate specialist Dr Beatrice Mosello and sustainability expert Dr Patrick Schröder from Chatham House, and special guest Oliver Morton, The Economist 's planetary affairs correspondent. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell. Explore Chatham House's latest work: Comment | Wildfires and extreme heat show climate change is now Europe's biggest security threat Video | Burning questions facing Burnham Comment | Melting ice and power shifts: Europe and Canada should seize their Arctic moment Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | Africa Aware 🎧 Audio | The Climate Briefing Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

Britain's new prime minister Andy Burnham is not known for his interest in foreign affairs, but foreign affairs are eternally and often unforgivingly interested in Britain. What should Burnham and his new foreign secretary Ed Miliband prioritise on the global front? How can they balance the urgent demands of defence, climate action, resetting relations with the EU and Britain's place in the wider world? And who is going to pay for it all? To discuss what should be on Burnham and Miliband's to-do lists, Bronwen Maddox is joined by Olivia O'Sullivan, director of Chatham House's UK in the World Programme, and Owen Jenkins, research director for Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and Asia-Pacific. Produced by Podmasters, with thanks to Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Explore Chatham House's latest: Video | Burning questions facing Burnham Comment | Why Carney's pipeline gamble is a bad bet for Canadian taxpayers Comment | Zambia's election: President Hichilema must preserve his country's democratic reputation Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | The Climate Briefing 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

The $2.6 trillion spent on artificial intelligence, data centres and advanced chipmaking dwarfs the cost of previous infrastructure megaprojects. Yet AI has become a money pit for tech giants like Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta, and the tech is failing to hit its stratospheric targets. Could an AI crash take overinvested economies down with it? In the longer term, whose approach will dominate? Will it be the US's private-led model with tech giants at the top? Or China's tactic of spreading low-cost AI throughout the Global South, with an eye on dominating the future? Bronwen Maddox is joined by Alex Krasodomski, director of Chatham House's Digital Society Programme; James Kynge, a senior research fellow for China and the World with the Asia-Pacific Programme; and Creon Butler, director of the Global Economy and Finance Programme. Produced by Podmasters, with thanks to Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Explore Chatham House's latest: Comment | What the UK should learn from Kimi K3, WAICO and the Hugging Face incident Comment | What the UK government should do on AI and tech policy Research paper | Breaking the deadlock on AI governance Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | The Climate Briefing 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

Ukraine's drone strikes deep into Russian territory coincided with one of Kyiv's biggest political and military convulsions of the war: Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired the popular defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov only for his decision to spark protests across the country. Why did Zelenskyy do it? Has the power struggle damaged his authority? Is Ukraine really regaining the initiative in the war? And what will it take to force Russia to the negotiating table? John Lough examines the potential turning point in the war with Vadym Prystaiko, former Ukrainian ambassador to the UK; Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at Kings College London; and Jaroslava Barbieri of Chatham House's Ukraine Forum. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell. Explore Chatham House's latest: Comment | Ukraine's allies should make an offer to Russians before September's 'elections' Comment | Will Ukraine's Wildberries attacks force Putin to the negotiating table? Comment | Ukraine needs help against Russian missiles now. What more can allies do? Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | The Climate Briefing 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

Andy Burnham took over as UK prime minister with a vow to restore hope in British politics – and an early volley of voter-friendly policy promises. But are they quite as significant as billed? How much room to manoeuvre does Burnham really have? Will new chancellor John Healey release enough funds to the Ministry of Defence, which he quit in frustration? Does Ed Miliband have what it takes to succeed as foreign secretary? And how will Britain's place in the world change? Olivia O'Sullivan, director of Chatham House's UK in the World Programme, is joined by The Economist's political correspondent Hugo Gye and Chatham House associate fellow Jamie Gaskarth to discuss the first days of Burnham's premiership. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Sara Seth. Explore Chatham House's latest: Comment | How Burnham should engage with Africa Comment | The wishful thinking behind the war with Iran Comment | 'Structural divergence' in China's economy exposes a growing problem Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | The Climate Briefing 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

The 2026 World Cup final in New Jersey may represent the pinnacle of soft power for the USA and a moment of global prestige for President Donald Trump. But at home, concerns are growing over his ever-expanding vision of presidential power. Is America now living with an 'imperial presidency'? Has the Supreme Court given the president powers that future generations might find hard to take back? How might Trump's autocratic style affect the November midterm elections? And why does he like to associate himself so closely with sports? Bronwen Maddox is joined by Heather Hurlburt and Max Yoeli of Chatham House's US and North America Programme to discuss presidential overreach, football red cards and the unitary executive theory of power. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Sara Seth. Explore Chatham House's latest: Comment | Trump's threats – and U-turn – on Hormuz fees further undermine US credibility in the Gulf Comment | US refusal to renew USMCA trade deal brings uncertainty for Mexico. But the treaty is far from dead Upcoming event | US at 250: Separation vs. concentration of power Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | The Climate Briefing 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

This year's NATO summit brought together the leaders of all 32 member states in Ankara. President Donald Trump's return to the summit brought renewed controversy, with remarks on Greenland and Iran underscoring the geopolitical tensions that continue to test the unity and purpose of the transatlantic alliance. What happened in Ankara and what does it mean for NATO's future? If the Ukraine conflict winds down, will Russia pivot to test Article Five? And is Britain doing enough to prepare for a potential conflict? Bronwen Maddox looks at the summit and NATO's future with special guest General Sir Richard Barrons – former Commander of Joint Forces Command in the UK, now a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House – plus Dr Marion Messmer, director of our International Security Programme, and Galip Dalay who runs Chatham House's Turkey Initiative. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell. Explore Chatham House's latest: News release | European NATO has four years to re-establish 'escalation dominance' over Russia, conference hears Magazine article | Yvette Cooper on Britain's place in the new world order Comment | Will NATO be convinced by the UK Defence Investment Plan? Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | The Climate Briefing 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

The United States marks its 250th birthday at a moment of intense division and international uncertainty. At home, President Donald Trump is aggressively remodelling America's governance around expanded White House power and burning through firewalls intended to prevent presidential overreach and self-enrichment. Internationally, his capricious mix of transactional diplomacy, coercive tariffs and naked hard power has left American allies shell-shocked – and opened the door for China to spread its influence. Former US ambassador to Qatar Tim Davis joins host Bronwen Maddox and Laurel Rapp, director of our US and North America programme, to discuss the future of the United States in the world – and whether, for ordinary citizens, the American dream still exists. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Explore Chatham House's latest: Comment | On its 250th birthday, the US is still defined by its fault lines Comment | Europe watches the next American revolution take shape Comment | The US government's latest U-turn on Anthropic's Mythos sends mixed signals on AI governance Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves No.10 a decade since the Brexit referendum that began the UK's cycle of chaos, and Andy Burnham seems set to take over unopposed. Our experts discuss what the new regime will mean for Britain's future and its role in the world. Will attempts to bring the UK closer to Europe without actually rejoining the EU continue? Will Burnham want to increase Britain's defence budget, or will his priorities lie elsewhere? And why can't Britain hold on to its prime ministers? Bronwen Maddox reflects on a historic week with Ben Judah, former adviser to David Lammy and visiting fellow at Chatham House, and Olivia O'Sullivan, director of our UK in the World Programme. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Explore Chatham House's latest: Comment | Britain's next prime minister faces deep foreign policy challenges – whether Burnham or another Comment | Macron's Evian summit shows the limits Trump places on the G7 Research paper | Three foreign policy priorities for the next UK government Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

Can Labour's prized plans to decarbonize power generation by 2050 withstand growing demands for extra defence spending – an acrimonious argument that has already claimed two senior defence ministers? Or pressure to preserve and extend welfare benefits from the party's left and the unions, many of whom see net zero as a job killer? Plus: China's colossal subsidization of green technology has created a surplus of cheap equipment for clean power. Would Britain be wise to take advantage? Bronwen Maddox is joined by Pelin Zorlu and Chris Aylett of Chatham House's Climate and Energy team, plus special guest Archie Hall, acting economics editor of The Economist. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Explore Chatham House's latest: Comment | Even Hormuz reopening will not resolve Europe's key energy vulnerability Comment | The next Strait of Hormuz crisis could be even worse Research paper | Why renewables and electrification hold the keys to EU energy security Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.