Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.
Brent Donnelly joins Matt Zeigler to explain how professional traders build a durable edge through risk management, trading psychology, probabilistic thinking, and creative market analysis. Drawing from his new book, Trade Outside the Box: Advanced Thinking for Professional Traders, Brent breaks down why trading strategies decay, why rationality beats intelligence, how to avoid risk of ruin, and how lessons from poker, behavioral finance, and real-world experience can improve decision-making. Trade Outside the Box: Advanced Thinking for Professional Traders https://amzn.to/4h9bi3e Brent Donnelly on X https://x.com/donnelly_brent Spectra Markets https://www.spectramarkets.com Topics covered: Why fundamentals, technical analysis, behavioral finance, and quantitative methods are necessary but not sufficient for trading success How traders can develop an edge by connecting markets to poker, psychology, biology, auto racing, and video games Why profitable trading strategies decay as more investors discover and copy them How changing volatility regimes force traders to adapt their style and avoid becoming a one-trick pony Why mismatching a long-term investment thesis with a short-term stop loss can destroy a good idea How trading journals and P&L data help separate normal variance from a broken process Why the house money effect can make traders more reckless after large gains Why rationality, flexibility, and expected value matter more than credentials or raw intelligence How Bayesian thinking helps traders update probabilities and fight confirmation bias The difference between independent thinking and blind contrarianism Why avoiding risk of ruin, protecting family and health, and defining success beyond money are essential to a sustainable trading career Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction to Brent Donnelly and Trade Outside the Box 04:00 Why smart analysts often produce fully priced trade ideas 08:00 Poker discipline and avoiding boredom trades 12:00 How lead-lag correlation trading lost its edge 16:35 Matching a trade's stop loss to its time horizon 21:00 What trading data reveals about win rates and expected value 25:00 The house money effect and the danger of overearning 29:00 Why rational traders beat smarter traders 33:00 Strong opinions weakly held and Bayesian updating 37:00 Curating a balanced diet of bullish and bearish information 41:00 Using creativity and outside disciplines to find market edge 45:11 Avoiding risk of ruin and the lessons of Jesse Livermore 50:29 The Serenity Prayer and focusing on what traders can control 55:00 Choosing family and health over markets 59:00 Why your first thought may not be your own Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.
On this episode of our new market wrap show Last Call, we examine the hidden rotation beneath calm stock market indexes, including sharp AI and semiconductor volatility, small-cap strength, forced fund liquidations, higher rates and changing Federal Reserve guidance. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Jim Paulsen, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba, Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig to discuss stock market correction risk, the economics of the AI data center buildout, options flows, market leverage, regulation and what could drive volatility next. Follow Last Call on Spotify Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts Topics covered Why market indexes can hide sharp rotation, dispersion and volatility in semiconductors and high-beta technology stocks Jim Paulsen's Policy Pain framework linking oil, Treasury yields, dollar strength and lagged effects on stocks, bonds and economic growth Why technology stocks could enter a bear market while old-economy sectors, small caps and value stocks hold up Ben Hunt's World War AI thesis comparing the AI infrastructure buildout with inflation-adjusted World War II spending How hyperscalers, equity issuance, private credit and government financing could crowd out consumers and businesses Why data centers could consume nearly one quarter of U.S. electricity and lead to higher prices, rationing and government intervention What the Situational Awareness fund liquidation and Citadel portfolio transaction reveal about forced market flows How options correlations and narrow market breadth can separate a technical rebound from a fundamental AI bottom Risks from speculative retail investments, weakened regulators, leverage and cyclical semiconductor profit margins Why reduced Fed forward guidance could create surprise policy decisions and greater algorithmic market volatility Timestamps 00:00 Market rotation and AI volatility beneath the indexes04:07 Jim Paulsen on Policy Pain and market vulnerability09:23 Why tightening hurts stocks before helping bonds14:23 Tech bear market risk and a possible leadership shift18:23 Ben Hunt on World War AI, private credit and systemic risk26:00 Data center electricity demand and the energy constraint31:29 Brent Kochuba on the Situational Awareness liquidation36:00 The forced buying behind the AI stock rebound40:00 Why the liquidation bounce may not signal an AI bottom44:00 How forced flows distort fundamental market narratives48:00 Retail investing pitches, liquidity and cycle FOMO52:00 Deregulation by destaffing at the SEC and CFTC56:00 Semiconductor operating leverage and fragile S&P 500 margins01:00:07 Jack's grievance with the YouTube algorithm01:04:29 What happens when the Fed stops giving forward guidance01:08:34 How markets could react to a surprise Fed decision Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
We are excited to announce the launch of a new podcast, Why Am I Reading This Now? with Ben Hunt. Stories and narratives are increasingly shaping markets, and Ben and his team at Perscient have developed a unique system for measuring how those narratives emerge, spread and change. In each episode, Ben and Matt Zeigler will examine the major issues facing investors through this narrative lens, helping listeners better understand the stories driving markets and what they could mean for the economy, policy and investment outcomes. We have included this first episode in the Excess Returns feed. To continue receiving new episodes, subscribe to the Why Am I Reading This Now? podcast on all major podcast platforms using the links below. Subscribe on Spotify Subscribe on Apple Topics covered Why AI CapEx and data center construction have become critical drivers of US economic growth How hyperscalers are shifting from cash flow financing to debt, equity issuance and private credit Why a slowdown in AI infrastructure spending could threaten markets, the economy and the financial system How trillions of dollars in AI investment may crowd out consumer credit, business investment and government borrowing Why data centers could consume a dramatically larger share of US electricity production How energy shortages could lead to higher utility costs, rationing and price controls Why the Iran war and higher oil prices may create a lasting increase in global energy costs How Perscient tracks the return of bearish AI narratives and growing political opposition to data centers Why both political parties may support government ownership, loan guarantees, bailouts and economic stimulus How competition with China could become the narrative used to justify greater government control of the AI industry Timestamps 00:00 Introducing Why Am I Reading This Now? with Ben Hunt 04:00 How debt, equity issuance and private credit are financing AI CapEx 08:06 Data center electricity demand and the energy crowding-out problem 13:21 Why an AI bailout may become politically inevitable 17:30 Oil shifts from a temporary shortage to a structural supply reduction 22:00 The bearish AI narrative returns as political opposition grows 26:00 Government ownership, price controls and the AI competition with China
Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to explain how surging AI capital spending, mega-cap share issuance and expensive U.S. technology stocks could reshape global equity leadership. They discuss the case for equal-weight stocks, energy equities, gold, UK small caps, Uzbekistan and Turkey, along with the risk that a surprise Federal Reserve hike could trigger a broader unwind in leveraged markets. Rupert Mitchell on X https://x.com/SquirrelMacro Blind Squirrel Macro https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com Topics covered Why the S&P 500 versus the rest of the world remains Rupert's chart of truth How the Bushy portfolio uses international equities, gold, commodities and hedges as an alternative to a traditional 60/40 portfolio Why positive stock-bond correlation has weakened the diversification case for long-duration bonds How AI data center spending, mega IPOs and new share issuance could reverse the buyback-driven de-equitization of U.S. markets Why Rupert is long the equal-weight S&P 500 and short the Nasdaq 100 as market leadership broadens How China's growing power in oil markets may create a price collar that supports energy producers, refiners, midstream companies and offshore services What a surprise Federal Reserve hike or death shot could mean for technology stocks, private credit, private equity and leveraged risk assets Why deeply discounted UK small and mid-cap stocks may benefit from buybacks, takeovers, pension capital and investment trust activism The opportunity in Uzbekistan's privatization program and the role of Templeton in improving governance Why Turkey's inflation-tested companies, strategic geography and cheap valuations may offer an attractive emerging-market setup Timestamps 00:00 Intro 04:00 Bushy portfolio changes across energy, commodities and precious metals 08:54 How AI capital spending and equity issuance threaten the buyback era 13:00 Equal-weight valuations and the long RSP, short QQQ trade 17:02 China's oil price collar and the energy equity re-rating 22:18 The Fed death shot and the danger of an unpriced hike 30:06 Peak populism and the historic valuation gap in UK equities 34:10 M&A, pension capital and UK investment trusts 38:50 Uzbekistan's privatization opportunity 43:39 Turkish equities, inflation and geopolitical leverage 49:13 Why stress-tested businesses may offer better value 53:39 Blind Squirrel Macro and Benny and the Squirrel Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
On the latest 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to revisit the 25th anniversary edition of The Warren Buffett Portfolio and explain why volatility is not the same as investment risk. They discuss concentrated portfolios, active share, business valuation, behavioral finance, complex adaptive systems, and Warren Buffett’s warning that the market’s casino can overwhelm its cathedral. The Warren Buffett Portfolio – 25th Anniversary Edition https://amzn.to/3TVXoru Robert Hagstrom on X https://x.com/RobertGHagstrom Equity Compass https://www.equitycompass.com/ Topics covered Why Markowitz’s definition of risk as variance shaped modern portfolio theory Why Buffett views permanent capital loss, not volatility, as the real investing risk What Hagstrom’s study of 3,000 portfolios revealed about concentration and market outperformance The difference between know-something investors and investors better served by indexing How benchmark awareness creates closet indexers and weakens active management What loss aversion and prospect theory explain about investor behavior Why Darwin, William James, and complex adaptive systems offer better models for markets Buffett’s cathedral and casino metaphor for business ownership versus speculation The El Farol problem, Jim Simons, and why successful market models stop working Why options trading, leveraged ETFs, and record single-stock dispersion may be strengthening the casino How to evaluate portfolios using cash flow, return on invested capital, and look-through earnings Why permanent capital and System 2 thinking are essential for focused investing Timestamps 00:00 Intro 04:00 Why Markowitz defined risk as variance 11:47 What 3,000 portfolios revealed about concentration 17:17 Know-something versus know-nothing investors 22:23 Kahneman, loss aversion, and modern portfolio theory 26:58 Darwin, pragmatism, and adaptive markets 32:28 Buffett’s cathedral and casino metaphor 37:37 The El Farol problem and why markets resist prediction 42:08 Why investors crave market forecasts 46:16 Why investing is most intelligent when businesslike 51:38 Record stock dispersion, options, and leveraged ETFs 56:00 Measuring portfolio progress through business economics 01:00:43 Why permanent capital enables focus investing 01:04:43 How markets survive widespread investor mistakes Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.
Wes Gray joins us to explain how factor investors should think about high market valuations, S&P 500 concentration, value investing, small caps, artificial intelligence and the behavioral challenge of staying invested for the long term. He also breaks down Section 351 ETF exchanges, including how appreciated portfolios can move into an ETF without an immediate taxable sale, why direct-indexing portfolios are a major use case and how the ETF wrapper is reshaping asset management. Wes Gray on X https://x.com/alphaarchitect Alpha Architect https://alphaarchitect.com ETF Architect https://etfarchitect.com Long-Only Value Investing: Does Size Matter? https://alphaarchitect.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AA-JBISFactorInvesting22LongOnlyValueInvesting.pdf Even God Would Get Fired as an Active Investor https://alphaarchitect.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Even_God_Would_Get_Fired_as_an_Active_Investor.pdf Topics covered Why high valuations may lower long-term expected returns without providing a reliable market-timing signal How S&P 500 concentration creates a major large-cap, quality and growth factor bet Why earnings and operating income may be better value metrics than book-to-market in an intangible economy Why valuation may matter more than company size for long-only value investors How unprofitable companies and low-quality stocks can distort small-cap value indexes Whether AI has changed the historical relationship between growth and value investing How AI may eliminate short-term trading edges while leaving long-horizon opportunities intact Why even an investor with perfect foresight could suffer severe drawdowns and get fired How passive investing flows may affect market prices and factor returns How Section 351 exchanges can solve problems created by appreciated SMAs, tax-loss harvesting and direct indexing The 25/50 diversification rules, cost-basis transfer and tax-deferral mechanics of ETF conversions Why assets continue moving from mutual funds, hedge funds and separate accounts into ETFs Why enduring underperformance may be necessary to earn higher long-term returns Timestamps 00:00 Alpha Architect, ETF Architect and building an ETF platform 04:00 Can factor investors time a market bubble? 08:03 Intangible assets and the problems with book-to-market 13:42 The quality problem inside small-cap value indexes 18:18 Has technology changed the growth-versus-value equation? 23:25 Can AI create lasting investment alpha? 27:42 Are investors behaving better today? 34:39 How Section 351 ETF exchanges work 39:48 The diversification rules for tax-deferred ETF conversions 44:34 How cost basis and deferred taxes carry into the ETF 49:07 Mutual fund, hedge fund and SMA conversions 54:13 Why investors should embrace underperformance Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, joins Jack Forehand to explain what systematic macro data says about economic growth, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, oil prices, AI investment and the outlook for stocks and bonds. They examine why nominal GDP remains stable, why traditional recession indicators have failed, how consumer dissaving is boosting corporate profits, and why today's unusually balanced regime probabilities make this a difficult time for large macro bets. Aahan Menon on X https://x.com/AahanPrometheus Prometheus Research https://www.prometheus-macro.com Topics covered Why geopolitical volatility and disrupted market trends make concentrated macro bets unusually difficult What Prometheus Research's daily GDP nowcast says about stable nominal growth Why AI capital spending matters but consumer spending still drives the US economy How household dissaving and the wealth effect are supporting corporate profits Why the economy and Federal Reserve policy may be increasingly sensitive to stock prices How oil prices are driving inflation volatility and changing expectations for interest rates Why demand-driven inflation is more persistent than supply-driven inflation How technology investment has weakened traditional recession and business-cycle indicators The value and limitations of timing Federal Reserve policy with systematic macro data What macro regime probabilities, valuations and expected returns suggest for stocks, bonds and diversification Timestamps 00:02 Why this is a difficult time for big macro bets 05:02 A daily GDP nowcast shows stable nominal growth 09:21 Consumer dissaving and the future economic risk 13:23 The wealth effect linking stocks, spending and profits 17:52 Oil prices and extreme inflation volatility 22:23 Separating persistent demand inflation from supply shocks 27:27 Why traditional recession indicators stopped working 32:55 How technology is changing the business cycle 37:42 Why timing Federal Reserve cycles matters for bond returns 42:28 The limitations of alternative data and short histories 47:33 Macro regime forecasts and expected returns 51:54 Why the macro backdrop still supports equities 56:19 Why investors can finally get paid to diversify Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Azeem Azhar joins Kai Wu to break down the real economics of the AI boom, including the $110 billion demand base, where profits may accrue across chips, hosting, foundation models and applications, and whether spending can translate into enterprise productivity. They discuss AI infrastructure bottlenecks, open-source competition, vertical integration, organizational redesign, software moats, human judgment and the signals investors can use to identify companies turning AI adoption into durable competitive advantage. The State of the AI Economy https://intelligence.exponentialview.co/assets/ev-state-of-ai-economy-2026.pdf Why AI Isn't Showing Up on Your Bottom Line https://www.exponentialview.co/p/why-ai-isnt-showing-up-on-your-bottom-line Azeem Azhar on X https://x.com/azeem Exponential View https://www.exponentialview.co/ Topics Covered The size and growth rate of real generative AI demand How the AI stack divides between chips, hosting, foundation models and applications Why memory and energized data centers may be the key AI infrastructure bottlenecks Open-source models, proprietary pricing and enterprise assurance Vertical integration and foundation model labs moving into applications How AI value could flow to consumers rather than infrastructure providers Why AI productivity requires workflow and organizational redesign What investors can learn from earnings calls, hiring and enterprise spending Forward-deployed engineers, consulting firms and vendor lock-in Which intangible business moats strengthen or weaken as intelligence becomes abundant Timestamps 00:00 The economics and sustainability of the AI boom 06:34 Mapping the four layers of the AI stack 10:43 Vertical integration and cross-stack competition 15:31 Why memory is becoming an AI infrastructure bottleneck 20:01 Open-source models versus proprietary AI 24:36 Why foundation model labs are moving up and down the stack 28:51 Could AI profits become consumer surplus? 33:00 Why more copilots cannot create an AI-native company 37:17 Job postings and the intangible investments behind AI adoption 44:16 Can forward-deployed engineers transform legacy companies? 49:15 Which business moats strengthen or weaken in the AI economy? 54:20 Do foundation models really have network effects? 59:00 Why judgment, verification and human provenance become more valuable 01:04:56 The exponential gap in data centers and education 01:10:06 How Azeem uses AI to deepen research and generate ideas Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
On the Latest First Principles, Andy Constan explains what the options market is signaling about the AI and semiconductor boom, why he believes earnings expectations have outrun the size of the economy, and where the next risks may emerge. We discuss speculative call buying, single-stock volatility, AI capital spending, consumer dissaving, the Fed put, Kevin Warsh's monetary policy framework, and the looming reset of US tariffs.Topics covered: * Why parabolic moves in AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks may reflect a speculative bubble * What rising single-stock volatility and unusually low market correlations reveal beneath a calm index * Why out-of-the-money calls became more expensive than puts and what that says about investor positioning * How investors can hedge concentrated stock gains by selling calls and buying protective puts * Why the AI bubble may be hiding in earnings expectations rather than traditional valuation multiples * Andy's economic pie framework and why projected corporate profits may exceed the GDP available to support them * How AI competition, open-source models, job displacement and subsidized token usage affect the return on AI investment * Why capital spending and consumer dissaving are supporting economic growth, and where those drivers could weaken * Whether the Federal Reserve could eventually buy equity ETFs and the inflationary consequences of a permanent Fed put * How lower short-term rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet could rebalance Main Street and Wall Street * Why expiring Section 122 tariffs could create a near-term shift in inflation, growth and the federal deficit Timestamps: 00:02 Why the options market is flashing a warning on AI stocks 04:02 Extreme stock dispersion beneath a calm market 08:49 The signals of a speculative call-buying frenzy 13:00 How to hedge a stock position without calling the top 18:36 Why earnings expectations may be the real AI bubble 23:00 The economic pie cannot support every company's forecasts 27:00 AI job displacement and the widening gap between winners and losers 31:59 How capital spending and consumer dissaving are sustaining growth 36:00 When the return on AI investment starts to matter 40:26 Could the Fed buy stocks in the next financial crisis? 44:53 How Kevin Warsh might respond when markets and employment collapse 48:58 Lower rates, a smaller balance sheet and wealth inequality 52:59 The tariff deadline investors may be overlooking Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Jack Schwager joins Excess Returns to discuss Market Wizards: The Next Generation and the extraordinary young traders profiled in the newest installment of the Market Wizards series. He explains how traders turned small accounts into fortunes, survived devastating losses, built exceptional risk-adjusted records and adapted from day trading to longer-term strategies, while revealing the psychology, risk management and commitment behind elite trading performance. Jack Schwager on X https://x.com/jackschwager Market Wizards: The Next Generation https://amzn.to/4psEOmH Topics covered How video games, prop trading firms and modern technology shaped a new generation of traders How Jack Schwager finds candidates and verifies extraordinary trading track records Why return-to-risk measures can reveal more than the Sharpe ratio Lukas Froelich's astonishing 2020 performance and the limits of compounding and scalability Simon Rousseau's journey from a $40,000 borrowed account to nearly $500 million How breaking risk rules led to massive losses even after extraordinary success Kristjan Kullamägi's path from security guard to more than $100 million after repeated account blowups Phil Goedeker's success with short selling, option selling and unusually strong risk control Rick Bandazian Jr.'s merger arbitrage edge and more than a decade without a losing month Why financial markets may remain uniquely difficult for artificial intelligence to solve Lance Breitstein's apprenticeship, deliberate practice and shift from day trading to longer-term positions What traders and long-term investors can learn about talent, discipline, persistence and human nature Timestamps 00:00 Intro to Market Wizards: The Next Generation 04:33 How Jack finds exceptional traders and how the trading ecosystem changed 09:15 Auditing Lukas Froelich's extraordinary 2020 returns 14:03 Simon Rousseau: turning $40,000 into nearly $500 million 18:42 The $50 million Carvana loss and the danger of breaking trading rules 22:54 Kristjan Kullamägi: from security guard to more than $100 million 28:36 Phil Goedeker and the risk of negative asymmetry strategies 32:41 Hedging option risk during the Liberation Day market selloff 37:34 Trading personality and Rick Bandazian Jr.'s no-loss record 41:36 Can artificial intelligence ever become a Market Wizard? 45:42 Lance Breitstein: choosing mentorship over a higher salary 49:42 What long-term investors can learn from elite traders 53:52 Innate talent, human nature and all-consuming commitment 57:58 What the next generation of trading may look like Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to explain why headline employment and inflation data may be giving investors an incomplete picture of the U.S. economy. They examine falling labor force participation, Medicaid-funded healthcare jobs, wage quality, oil and diesel shortages, consumer financial stress and how AI can make public data more useful. Eric Pachman on X https://x.com/EricPachman Data 4 The People https://www.data4thepeople.com/ Main topics covered Why the establishment survey and household survey can tell very different labor market stories Why unemployment may miss weakening labor force participation and disappearing working-age Americans The decline in participation among older workers and men How healthcare and Medicaid-funded care have become the engine of U.S. job growth Why Medicaid cuts could create a major employment and consumer spending risk What occupational wage data reveals about the quality of new jobs and home healthcare pay The differences between CPI, PCE and core inflation and why the standard measures can be misleading How crude oil grades, refinery design and 3-2-1 crack spreads shape energy prices Why falling diesel inventories could spread inflation through transportation, food and retail What the single-income stress test reveals about household fragility, poverty and multiple-job holders How Data 4 The People is using AI to build public-interest data research tools Timestamps 00:00 Intro 04:41 Why the unemployment rate can miss a labor crisis 11:24 Healthcare jobs, aging America and the Medicaid care economy 18:44 The Wage Ledger and the hidden quality of U.S. job growth 24:18 Why inflation is moving higher 30:48 Why every equity investor needs to understand oil 36:00 Crack spreads and the refinery mismatch problem 44:05 Why diesel is the inflation risk that matters most 48:34 The single-income stress test and consumer fragility 54:42 Data 4 The People's nonprofit mission 59:00 Building an AI research assistant for public data 01:03:37 Where to follow Eric and Data 4 The People Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Jim Paulsen joins us to explain why weakening economic momentum, tightening financial conditions and extreme AI enthusiasm could set the stage for a 10% to 20% stock market correction. We discuss labor market weakness, the growing divide between technology and the broader economy, fading tech leadership, market complacency, bond yields and the demographic forces that could keep US growth and inflation lower for years. Jim also explains why he does not expect a recession or the end of the long-term bull market, but believes investors may need to reduce their concentration in AI and technology stocks as leadership quietly shifts toward the broader market. Jim Paulsen on X https://x.com/jimwpaulsen Paulsen Perspectives https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/ Main topics covered • Why Jim expects a 10% to 20% market correction without a recession • What zero job creation, declining full-time employment and rising unemployment reveal about the labor market • Why housing starts, real disposable income and GDP forecasts point to weaker economic growth • How higher Treasury yields, oil prices, a stronger dollar and slower money growth have tightened financial conditions • Why the economic damage from an oil shock often appears after oil prices peak • The widening earnings and economic divide between AI investment and the rest of the economy • What investor positioning, shrinking liquidity and low defensive exposure reveal about market complacency • Why strong earnings momentum does not eliminate the risk of a market decline • Evidence that technology, communication services and the Magnificent Seven are losing market leadership • Why old economy sectors may outperform technology during the next stage of the bull market • How weak labor force growth could push economic growth, inflation and Treasury yields lower • Why demographics, immigration and productivity will shape the long-term US economic outlook Timestamps 00:00 Why Jim Paulsen expects a 10% to 20% market correction 04:32 The labor market weakness investors may be overlooking 08:42 Housing, disposable income and GDP growth are deteriorating 13:03 How tighter financial conditions could slow the economy 17:09 Why oil shocks and the yield curve threaten earnings growth 21:41 Investor complacency and the disconnect between markets and Main Street 25:54 How today’s AI boom differs from the dot-com bubble 30:20 Defensive stocks reach an extreme last seen near major market tops 34:36 Record earnings expectations, momentum and extreme valuations 39:00 Technology, communication services and the Magnificent Seven lose momentum 43:00 The hidden market rotation from new era to old era stocks 47:01 Why Jim expects Treasury yields to fall below 3% 51:43 The demographic forces suppressing growth and inflation 55:45 America’s long-term growth challenge and what could change it
Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies joins Excess Returns to break down the current technical setup for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, mega-cap tech, market breadth, sector rotation, international stocks and gold. We discuss why short-term momentum has weakened, what would confirm a more serious breakdown, how investors can use technical analysis for risk management, and where breakouts are appearing outside the AI and semiconductor trade. Katie Stockton on X https://x.com/StocktonKatie Fairlead Strategies https://www.fairleadstrategies.com/ Fairlead Funds https://www.fairleadfunds.com/ Main topics covered Why the S&P 500 is still in a long-term uptrend but showing short-term momentum loss How Katie defines overbought and oversold using the stochastic oscillator Why the March monthly MACD sell signal became an unusual whipsaw What the QQQs and Nasdaq 100 are saying about technology leadership How investors can use stop losses, hedges and moving averages to manage risk Why the market has held up despite underperformance in the Magnificent Seven The difference between market breadth and market leadership Why sector rotation is improving in healthcare, industrials, utilities, insurers and biotech How sentiment indicators like the VIX and Fear and Greed Index fit into market timing How the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF uses trend following, sector rotation, Treasuries and gold What the charts are saying about emerging markets, developed international stocks and the U.S. Why gold has moved from a strong bull market into a more tactical trading environment Timestamps 00:00 Intro 00:58 Why the S&P 500 is losing short-term momentum 05:04 How overbought conditions can reset without a major decline 08:39 Why whipsaws make confirmation so important 12:02 What the QQQs are saying about technology leadership 16:51 How to manage risk with stop losses and hedges 20:07 Why the market held up despite Mag Seven weakness 23:49 How market breadth differs from market leadership 28:14 What sentiment indicators are saying about investor positioning 32:58 Why the market is in a technical void 36:00 Sector rotation beyond technology and semiconductors 40:54 How the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF manages drawdowns 46:05 What international stock charts are saying versus the U.S. 50:13 Why markets have been resilient despite geopolitical risk 52:05 What the chart of gold is telling investors now
Matt Zenz of Longview Research Partners joins Excess Returns to explain how evidence-based investing can help investors navigate AI excitement, market concentration, high valuations, IPO hype, factor investing and fixed income tax drag. We discuss why bubbles are hard to identify in real time, why diversification still matters, how valuation spreads shape expected returns, what AI capex does and does not tell us, and how investors can think about taxable bonds more efficiently. Longview Research Partners https://longviewresearchpartners.com/ Main topics covered Why evidence-based investing matters during bubble-like markets The emotional reality of holding risk assets through painful periods How to think about market concentration without jumping straight to bubble calls Why global diversification changes the mega-cap dominance story What high market valuations mean for financial planning and expected returns Why wide valuation spreads may create a better setup for value stocks What factor research says about AI capex and corporate investment How Longview builds a diversified factor strategy around discount rates Why implementation, trading flexibility and scale matter in factor investing The small cap premium debate, IPOs, fallen angels and survivorship bias Why AI may increase data mining risk in quantitative investing How fixed income tax drag can quietly reduce after-tax returns Timestamps 00:00 Why painful markets create future return premiums 04:00 Market concentration, AI winners and the value of diversification 09:40 How high valuations should influence financial planning 13:12 Why wide valuation spreads matter for value investors 14:01 What factor research says about AI capex 16:20 How Longview's EBI strategy looks for higher discount rates 18:58 Why Longview starts with the market and then tilts 21:45 Comparing 1999, 2008 and today through expected returns 24:33 Intangible assets, price-to-book and the limits of accounting adjustments 28:32 SpaceX, IPOs and how indexes handle new mega-cap companies 33:21 Why implementation and trading flexibility can affect returns 36:17 Passive flows, price elasticity and market price discovery 39:35 The small cap premium, IPOs and fallen angels 42:21 Are today's small caps lower quality than history? 46:01 Why AI may not uncover the next great factor premium 48:04 Why fixed income may be the most inefficient part of taxable portfolios 51:29 How LVIG tries to convert bond income into deferred capital appreciation 52:50 The after-tax return opportunity from tax deferral 54:58 Which investors may benefit most from tax-efficient fixed income 56:26 Where to learn more about Matt Zenz and Longview
Jeff Klingelhofer of Aristotle Pacific joins Excess Returns to break down the fragile circular relationship between AI capital spending, the stock market, the high-end consumer and the broader economy. We discuss fixed income markets, Fed policy, inflation, private credit, the national debt, business cycle risk and how investors should think about bonds after the end of the zero-rate era. Aristotle Pacific https://www.aristotlepacific.com/ Main topics covered Why AI CapEx has become one of the biggest drivers of the US economy and stock market How the high-end consumer, asset prices and AI spending have created a circular market setup Why today’s fixed income market is very different from the zero-rate era How bonds can serve as income, ballast and portfolio protection in the current environment Why the Fed may care more about inflation expectations than markets expect The Fed’s overlooked third mandate and what moderate long-term interest rates mean How Kevin Warsh could change the Fed’s approach to forward guidance, inflation and the balance sheet Why the business cycle is not dead, even if Fed intervention has lengthened it What investors should understand about the national debt, higher rates and inflation Why private credit is useful but not automatically better than public credit How flexible fixed income investing can find opportunities across credit, securitized markets and capital structures Why sentiment, not just fundamentals, drives market prices Timestamps 00:00 AI CapEx, the stock market and the fragile economic loop 04:03 Why fixed income markets look different after zero rates 08:45 Does the Fed still have investors’ backs? 13:43 Are AI companies using dangerous forms of financing? 18:54 Why starting yields change the stock bond hedge 23:42 The Fed’s overlooked third mandate 29:03 Why inflation expectation stability may drive Fed policy 33:11 How Kevin Warsh may change the Fed regime 38:46 What a smaller Fed balance sheet could mean for asset prices 43:24 The national debt, higher rates and inflation 50:25 Why fixed income should be managed across silos 55:08 The one lesson for the average investor
Meb Faber, co-founder and CIO of Cambria Investment Management, joins Excess Returns to discuss his new book, Investing in America: The Rise of a 250 Year Bull Market. We explore why the United States became one of the greatest long-term compounding stories in market history, what investors can learn from 250 years of booms and busts, and why Meb can be optimistic about America while still cautious on today’s expensive market-cap-weighted S&P 500. Investing in America: The Rise of a 250 Year Bull Market https://amzn.to/4f1H5Aw Meb Faber on X https://x.com/MebFaber Main topics covered Why America can be viewed as the ultimate venture capital success story How joint stock companies, risk-taking and ownership helped shape the U.S. economy Why studying 250 years of market history changes how investors think about volatility The long-term case for stocks and why the time horizon matters so much Why bear markets are a natural part of capitalism and long-term compounding How U.S. market dominance happened and why it was not preordained Why expensive valuations, low dividend yields and new supply may matter today The role of dividends, buybacks, shareholder yield and reinvestment in long-term returns Why diversification across global stocks, bonds and real assets can help investors stay invested What gold, REITs and foreign stocks teach us about starting points and narratives Why early investing, child investment accounts and compounding can change investor behavior How creative destruction reshapes sectors, companies and the market leaders of each era Why Meb remains optimistic about America while still cautious on parts of the U.S. market Timestamps 00:00 Why America was not guaranteed to become the market winner 01:15 Meb Faber on writing Investing in America 02:25 America as the ultimate venture capital success story 06:22 How a culture of ownership helped the U.S. stock market compound 09:19 Why studying 250 years of market history matters 12:00 Why ownership is the core investing lesson 15:14 Bear markets, recessions and the danger of recent history 18:16 Why U.S. stocks beat the rest of the world by so much 22:20 Lessons from financial history that surprised Meb 27:05 Why stocks can lose for long periods and bonds can win 30:00 Why investors need to get used to being in a drawdown 33:24 Dividends, buybacks and the importance of reinvestment 37:27 Why gold and REITs beat the S&P 500 after 2000 40:55 How balanced portfolios survive different market regimes 43:03 The power of starting early and letting compounding work 48:16 Why global diversification matters outside the U.S. 50:40 Creative destruction, sector change and market leadership 55:20 Why Meb is still optimistic about investing in America 59:33 Where to find the book, Cambria and Meb online
In this episode of Last Call, we look back at June 2026 and break down the biggest market stories shaping investors’ outlook for the second half of the year. Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand are joined by Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman to discuss the SpaceX IPO, AI and semiconductor cyclicality, Fed credibility, options flows, labor market quality, crack spreads and inflation risk. Follow Last Call on Spotify Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts Main topics covered Why the SpaceX IPO became the biggest market story of the month How index flows, ETF buying and hedge fund positioning shaped SpaceX trading Andy Constan on why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across AI stocks Why AI spending is benefiting semiconductors, memory and chip equipment companies The Fab Five companies behind semiconductor capacity and why they matter Ben Hunt on Fed credibility, market narratives, gold, the dollar and trust Brent Kochuba on options flows, correlation risk and volatility spasms in tech stocks Why short-term options volume may signal excess speculation in QQQ and AI stocks How SpaceX options trading changed after the first wave of retail excitement Eric Pachman on why headline job growth may hide weakness in wages and job quality Why crack spreads, refining constraints and oil logistics may matter more for inflation than crude prices alone What investors should watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory, innovation and market cycles Timestamps 00:00 Intro 01:02 Matt and Jack introduce Last Call and the June market review 03:05 Why SpaceX dominated the month and how the IPO traded after opening 07:33 Andy Constan on Fab Five Freddy eating the semis 10:35 Why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across the stock market 13:35 How AI compute spending flows through chips, fabs and semiconductor equipment 17:45 Are parts of the semiconductor market showing signs of an earnings bubble? 20:12 Ben Hunt on the Fed credibility chart that surprised him 23:50 Why Fed credibility, Sell America, gold and the dollar are connected 29:48 Brent Kochuba on options flows behind AI stocks, semis and SpaceX 33:36 Why semiconductor volatility may be warning of a short-term reset 38:46 What SpaceX options trading says after the initial surge 42:12 Eric Pachman on jobs, wages and what the Fed may be missing 48:24 Why crack spreads matter for oil, refining, gas prices and inflation 55:28 What to watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory demand and market cycles 59:01 Why efficiency, competition and cyclical thinking matter for AI investors 01:03:02 Matt and Jack close the episode No information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.
Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins Excess Returns to break down the AI bull market, the macro risks investors should watch, and why the data still supports continued strength in semiconductors and equities. We discuss GPU demand, token usage, open source AI, Fed policy, housing weakness, oil, earnings growth, market valuations and the biggest risks to the current cycle. Warren Pies on X https://x.com/WarrenPies 3Fourteen Research https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/ Caliban https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/caliban Main topics covered Which bearish AI arguments actually matter for investors Why regulatory risk may be the biggest long-term AI concern How data center spending is crowding out housing investment Why the Fed may struggle to cool AI-driven investment without hurting the labor market What GPU availability says about real-time AI compute demand Why open source AI is not yet replacing frontier models How token pricing and OpenRouter data help measure AI usage Why semiconductor stocks may still be in the middle of a major cycle How semis are being valued differently than traditional cyclicals Why Fed policy, earnings growth and market multiples are key to the second half of 2026 What oil positioning and refined product inventories say about macro risk Why 3Fourteen remains constructive on equities despite rising overheating risk Timestamps 00:00 Intro 01:04 Which bearish AI arguments have teeth? 04:00 Why AI regulation is the biggest long-term risk 07:03 Technology spending versus housing investment 11:03 How AI CapEx is showing up in inflation data 13:04 Why the labor market is more fragile than headline jobs data suggests 16:24 Why GPU availability is a cleaner signal than CapEx announcements 21:00 What token pricing and OpenRouter data reveal about AI demand 27:36 How 3Fourteen benchmarks frontier models against open source AI 30:00 Why the semiconductor selloff looked like a buyable dip 34:02 Are semiconductors still cyclical businesses? 38:08 Why Fed tightening could be the thing that ends the bull market 42:15 What the oil shock means now 45:47 Refined product inventories, crack spreads and energy stocks 47:18 Are earnings estimates becoming too optimistic? 50:49 Why the debasement regime still supports equities 54:05 Where to find Warren Pies and 3Fourteen Research
Ritavan joins Excess Returns to explain The System Gambit, a new framework for understanding competitive advantage, business strategy, AI disruption and long-term compounding. We discuss why traditional moat checklists can miss the real source of value, how companies can build systems competitors cannot copy, and what investors should look for when AI changes the game. The System Gambit https://amzn.to/4b0J32I Main topics covered Why the traditional moat checklist can fail investors The three requirements for a true System Gambit How investors can evaluate business strategy from the outside Why code is not always the moat in the age of AI What history can teach investors about asymmetry and leverage Why AI adoption is not the same as AI value creation The difference between moving fast and understanding the game Lessons from Nokia, ASML, Amazon and Walmart How intangible investment and J curves can hide long-term value Why the best companies build compounding systems competitors cannot copy How investors can identify companies changing the game rather than optimizing the old one Timestamps 00:00 Opening preview and introduction 04:00 The three ingredients of a System Gambit 08:49 Why code is not the moat in AI software 13:00 Skanderbeg and changing the rules of the game 17:00 Good moats, good narratives and asymmetric advantage 22:31 Microscope vs telescope as a lesson for AI 28:35 AI winners, losers and high dispersion markets 32:08 Signal quality, bottlenecks and why AI adoption is not enough 36:00 Nokia, agility and the failure to build a causal model 40:15 Why understanding the game beats speed 44:00 Intangible investment, the J curve and ASML's hidden edge 49:54 The contrarian AI thesis behind The System Gambit 54:00 How to recognize a real System Gambit 58:27 Amazon, Walmart and multi-paradigm compounding 1:03:00 Prime, FBA and platform leverage 1:07:00 Walmart's answer to Amazon 1:11:06 Closing thoughts and where to find Ritavan
On this episode of the 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer and Matt Zeigler discuss long-term investing, 100-baggers, AI stocks, SpaceX valuation, founder-led companies, and why the best investments often come with brutal drawdowns. We also cover his new book The Investor's Odyssey, the danger of letting labels like AI do too much work, how to think about TAM and capital allocation, and why patience may be the biggest edge for investors trying to own great businesses for decades. Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on Spotify Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on Apple The Investor's Odyssey: Resisting the Sirens and Playing the Long Game https://amzn.to/44BMXeJ Main topics covered Why SpaceX, AI and trillion-dollar IPOs are testing investor discipline How Chris Mayer thinks about valuation after watching Google become a huge winner Why great businesses can still be terrible investments at the wrong price The danger of letting labels like AI, quality and TAM replace real analysis Why many AI features may not create real customer value What the dot-com bubble can teach investors about AI adoption and shakeouts Why investors do not need to be early if a company is truly exceptional How to separate AI anecdotes from real financial impact Why capital allocation and return on invested capital matter more as companies scale How to evaluate founder control, governance, incentives and trust Why the best long-term stocks can still fall 50 percent or more along the way What rational exuberance might look like for long-term investors Timestamps 00:00 Intro: Chris Mayer on AI, SpaceX and long-term investing 04:00 SpaceX valuation vs Google and the risk of paying too much 08:01 Why labels like AI and quality can do too much work 12:05 The AI pause, the dot-com analogy and where real value may emerge 16:06 Why investors do not need to be early when a business is real 21:00 Becoming a great company versus already being mature 25:10 Thinking about TAM, market share and realistic growth expectations 29:43 Corporate governance, free float and shareholder rights 34:27 How to judge founder trust, incentives and compensation 38:57 Employee ownership, culture and building enduring companies 43:02 Investor frustration in a lopsided AI-driven market 47:02 Why even a perfect stock picker would face brutal drawdowns 52:17 The rise of trillion-dollar IPOs and the question of rational exuberance 56:29 The Investor's Odyssey and playing the long game
Ranking source
Apple Podcasts rankings supplied by Mato Topic Intelligence Platform.
Observed July 31, 2026.
Apple and Apple Podcasts are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.
