The Joseph Carlson Show

AI agents are moving from simply answering questions to actually doing things for us — shopping, booking hotels, making reservations, comparing prices, managing transactions, and eventually negotiating with other machines on our behalf.That shift could have enormous consequences for some of the world’s biggest companies.In this episode, I look at the rise of agentic commerce and a simple framework for determining which businesses are most exposed: How much of their value comes from removing friction, and how much scarce infrastructure or capability remains once that friction disappears?We break down what this could mean for Booking Holdings, DoorDash, Intuit, Google, Amazon, Uber, Duolingo, Microsoft, Meta, Visa, Mastercard, ASML, S&P Global, Costco, Netflix, Texas Roadhouse, and more.Some businesses may lose their direct relationship with the customer. Others could become even more valuable as AI agents increase transactions, computing demand, and the need for trusted infrastructure.The question may no longer be, “Can AI automate this business?”It may be: “What happens when an AI agent becomes the customer’s gatekeeper?”0:00 The Agentic Commerce Thesis 2:03 Meta Muse: The First Real Consumer Agent 5:43 How AI Agents Could Reshape Business 7:26 The Friction Framework: Who Is Most Exposed? 11:57 The Four Stages of the Agent Economy 18:28 Booking Holdings, DoorDash & Intuit 27:12 Google, Amazon, Uber & Duolingo 32:15 Microsoft, Meta, Visa & Mastercard 36:50 ASML, S&P Global, Costco, Netflix & Texas Roadhouse 41:14 Which Companies Are Most Exposed to AI Agents?

0:00 The AI Slowdown Battle 4:05 Why Meta Benefits Most 6:49 How Meta Wins Either Way 12:41 Meta’s New AI Assistant 15:41 Zuckerberg’s Track Record 20:43 Dario’s Real Incentives 29:21 The Problem With “Coordinated Pacing” 31:46 Fail of the Week: Hunter Biden’s Meme Coin

Jacob Coxon viral X post is causing an AI hysteria. We look through the timeline in this episode.

00:00 What's Happneing In The Stock Market 17:31 Microsoft to Reveal Cloud Growth 19:45 S&P Global To Sell Capital IQ 21:52 Google Avoids Breakup 23:00 Fail Of The Week: Teleprompter Operator

Why the biggest bear, Ed Zitron, belives AI is a con.

00:00 Meta Strategic Victory In Lawsuit 18:30 Microsoft Is Hiding From Investors 21:23 Netflix May Offer Peacock Through It's Service 26:15 Win Of The Week: SharkNinja's Innovation

00:00 Buy Prices For Every Stock 26:18 Uber Hit Piece 38:50 Fail Of The Week: Gene Munster

00:00 How To Have An Edge In Investing 15:02 Sharing My Investment Journey 19:15 Top Pick 1: Meta 23:50 Top Pick 2: Uber 25:50 Top Pick 3: S&P Global 27:30 Duolingo DAU Update 29:20 Fail Of The Week: Amazon Drone Delivery 30:45 New Carlson Family Member

00:00 Super Investor Portfolio Update 23:00 Meta Lawsuit Gets Worse

In this episode we review Bill Ackmans new buys.

00:00 Overview 01:24 IMAX 08:33 Reddit 11:39 MELI 13:20 Adobe 16:28 Nike 17:50 Rollins 19:40 Copart 23:04 Nebius 24:58 Cava 26:35 Fail Of The Week: Elisson vs California

00:00 Introduction 01:00 A History Of Picking Stocks 06:30 Uber 11:50 Meta 18:02 Netflix 20:15 Semianalysis Gemini Has Lost 23:48 Fail Of The Week: Keith Rabois

00:00 Intro 02:30 AWS Has Changed The Market 11:26 FICO Earnings 14:24 Uber & DoorDash 19:00 Duolingo 22:00 Texas Roadhouse 23:00 Tom Lee 2027 Prediction

Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have followed a pattern of their CAPEX having initial skepticism eventually followed by acceptance. This will happen with Meta as well. In each case there were 'reasons' that the stock deserved to be down. With Google it was that ChatGPT would disrupt search, Microsoft it was Claude would disrupt the software bundle and the backlog was too concentrated, Amazon it was large CAPEX spend with no flagship model. With Meta it's that they have no public cloud business. Like all the others, investors will eventually be convinced with Meta as well.

00:00 Introduction 03:01 PayPal Stock 08:33 S&P Global Earnings 12:36 Visa and Mastercard 17:16 FICO and Robinhood 19:38 Meta and Microsoft Earnings 27:05 The Three Layers of AI 37:05 ASML and China’s Chip Machines 39:11 AI, Hiring, and the Future of Jobs 41:52 Fail Of The Week: Paramount’s Warner Bros. Merger Problem

00:00 Introduction 02:00 ASML Earnings Reaction 10:00 Netflix Earnings Tomorrow 11:50 JP Morgan & The Banks 12:20 Buffett Reveals He Bought Google Fail Of The Week: Kalshi & New York City

00:00 The Growth of Momentum Investing 19:00 How Buffett Comapres To Terry Smith 29:00 Starbucks Is Building Their Own Software 32:00 Fail Of The Week: AI Cheating In School

00:00 Market Dynamics & 9 Stocks 28:36 Tom Lee On July Strength 31:00 Fail Of The Week: Michael Saylor

00:00 Jeremy Grantham Predictions 18:20 Zuckerberg Talks About Meta's Spend 33:40 Fail Of The Week: Polen Capital Collapse

00:00 The AI Trade Is Cracking 07:36 Netflix At 52 Week Low 17:00 Meta Sell-Off Continues 23:40 Fail Of The Week: JP Morgan Community Manager