Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking - Baillie Gifford
Published by Baillie Gifford
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Baillie Gifford’s Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking bring valuable insights into the benefits of taking the long view. You’ll hear frank, thought-provoking opinions from our team in Edinburgh and experts around the world. These podcasts do not constitute an offer of or solicitation for purchase or sale of securities or provision of any investment services. They are provided for information only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a particular investment. Our podcasts have been compiled with considerable care to ensure their accuracy at the date of publication. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to their accuracy or completeness. For further details please see our legal information at www.bailliegifford.com
Baillie Gifford first invested in SpaceX in 2018, nearly eight years before its record-setting stock market listing. Investment manager Luke Ward, who championed the holding, discusses what first drew him to the business, why Starship is critical to its future, and reveals where he’s now looking for another company with industry-upturning potential. Background: Luke Ward is an investment manager on Baillie Gifford’s Private Companies Team and co-manager of Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust. In this conversation, he tells Short Briefings… host Leo Kelion how SpaceX’s first successful landing and recovery of one of its rocket boosters led him to explore an investment in the company, and how he gained access to its senior management. Ward also explores three growth drivers that could determine its future success: regularly flying a new, larger spacecraft, Starship, into orbit upgrading its Starlink broadband network with satellites that connect to smartphones directly putting and operating datacentres in orbit In addition, he discusses some of the risks in being a long-term shareholder in the Elon Musk-run endeavour. Ward also reveals why he thinks the construction industry is ripe for disruption from 3D-printing robots. Resources: Baillie Gifford Private Companies Team Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust Elon Musk by Ashlee Vance Private companies: our philosophy Quantum, space, fusion: three firms engineering the future SpaceX: the economics of the impossible Starlink: broadband from above Titan robotic construction system Companies mentioned include: · Alphabet (Google) · Anthropic · Astranis · Rocket Lab · SpaceX · Tesla Timecodes: 00:05 Introduction 02:00 A successor to the Space Shuttle 03:55 Reimagining a market 05:55 Reusable rockets 06:30 Mars as a ‘forcing function’ 07:55 First encounter with Gwynne Shotwell 10:10 The ‘scale of the Dutch East India Company’ 12:40 What we got wrong 14:25 The advantages of early access 17:50 Starship’s cost advantage 19:40 Next-generation Starlink satellites 22:30 AI and space-based datacentres 27:20 SpaceX’s scale of ambition 29:00 Governance risk 31:05 Flywheels and stepping stones 32:55 3D-printed homes 34:25 A “nerdy” book pick Glossary of terms (in order of mention): Path dependency: The idea that earlier choices shape and constrain what becomes possible later. Rocket booster: The part of a rocket that provides extra thrust during launch, usually early in flight. Orbital-class craft: A spacecraft or rocket powerful enough to reach orbit around Earth. Market capitalisation: A public company’s total value on the stock market, calculated from its share price and number of shares. Vertical integration: When a company owns and controls more of its supply chain itself, rather than relying on outside suppliers. Point solution: A product or service built to solve one specific problem, rather than a broader system of related problems. Balance sheet: A financial statement showing what a company owns, owes and is worth at a point in time. Roadshow: A series of presentations in which a company and its advisers meet potential investors before a share sale or listing. Cost curve: The trend in how the cost of producing or delivering something changes as technology improves or scale increases. Geostationary orbit: An orbit where a satellite moves at the same rate as Earth rotates, so it appears to stay above the same point on the planet. Transistors: Tiny electronic switches used in computer chips to control electrical signals. S-curve: A pattern where progress starts slowly, accelerates rapidly and then slows again as a technology matures. Ancillary services: Supporting services or costs around the main product or technology, rather than the core hardware itself. Orders of magnitude: Very large multiples, usually powers of 10. Radiation hardening: Designing or adapting electronics so they can keep working despite radiation in space. Cap table: Short for capitalisation table, a record of who owns a company’s shares and on what terms. Thermal mass: A material’s ability to absorb, store and release heat, helping to smooth temperature changes.
Tokenisation represents an “operating system upgrade” for the investment industry, says Theo Golden, Baillie Gifford’s new head of digital assets. In this episode, they explain what it involves and how it should deliver a better experience, both by reducing the number of middlemen between you and your investments and making your holdings more “useful”. Background: In this conversation, Theo Golden tells Short Briefings… host Leo Kelion about how tokenisation can reduce costs and complexity – and pave the way for providing clients with new services that better fit their needs. Tokenisation means taking an asset – such as a fund – and turning it into a line of code. This lives on a blockchain: a shared digital record that no single party owns or controls. The investment itself doesn't change, but what does are the ways that ownership is recorded and transferred. Instead of a chain of intermediaries, each keeping their own set of books, everyone can work from one shared record. As Golden puts it, it's “the same but better” – the same investments, on faster, lower-cost, more flexible rails built for the internet age. It also paves the way to new capabilities. Among those Golden discusses are making it much easier for clients to use the funds they invest in as collateral for loans, and the development of “agentic wealth management” – AI bots that autonomously plan and, potentially, update an individual client’s portfolio based on their risk appetite and changing circumstances. Baillie Gifford’s first steps with tokenisation involve fixed income, but in time the ambition is to “build across our investment universe,” Golden says. “So be ready for Baillie Gifford on chain.” Resources Baillie Gifford digital assets hub Dr Ian Hunt: Replicating Legacy is Squandering the Promise of Tokenisation: We Are Building a Faster Horse Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking podcast archive Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 01:40 “A world with less friction” 02:15 The lesson from losing it all 04:50 From Bloomberg to bonds 06:35 Defining tokenisation and the blockchain 08:20 Same assets, better system 09:35 One golden source of truth 12:35 Making assets more useful 16:10 Turning assets into “Lego bricks” 19:20 Stablecoins, regulation and new decision-makers 24:00 Managing crypto risks 26:25 The ‘same but better’ rule 28:00 Starting with fixed income 29:20 Meeting clients where they are 30:27 Book pick Glossary of terms (in order of mention): Trading volumes: The amount of buying and selling taking place in a market over a period of time. Blockchain-based tokenisation: The use of blockchain technology to create digital tokens that represent ownership of assets. Self-sovereign: Controlled directly by the owner, rather than depending entirely on a bank, platform or intermediary. Custody: The safekeeping of assets. Self-custody means holding and controlling the asset directly yourself. Counterparties: The other parties involved in a financial transaction or agreement. Multi Asset: An investment approach that can invest across several asset classes, such as shares, bonds, currencies and infrastructure. Catastrophe bonds: Bonds that transfer insurance-related risks, such as natural-disaster losses, from insurers to investors. FX rates: Foreign exchange rates. Smart contract: Computer code that automatically carries out agreed rules when certain conditions are met. Token: A digital representation of an asset or ownership right on a blockchain. Walled garden: A closed system where users can only operate within the rules and limits of one provider or platform. Fixed income fund: A fund that invests mainly in bonds or other debt instruments that typically pay interest. Growth equity fund: A fund that invests in companies expected to grow faster than the wider market. Vehicle for transfer: The system or method used to move ownership or value from one party to another. Rails: The underlying infrastructure that allows transactions or transfers to take place. Reconciliation: The process of checking that different records match each other. Shareholder registry: The official list of people or organisations that own shares or fund units. Transfer agency register: A fund-administration record that tracks investor ownership and transactions. Wallet: A digital tool used to hold and manage blockchain-based assets. Finality: The point at which a transaction is considered complete and cannot easily be reversed. Unitisation: The process of dividing a fund into units so investors can buy and sell a share of the fund. Inert: Hard to move, transfer or use in other financial activities. UK gilt: A UK government bond. Margin call: A demand for more cash or collateral when the value of an investment or position has fallen. Interoperability: The ability of different systems, assets or pieces of software to work together. Composability: The ability to combine digital assets or software components, like building blocks, to create new services. COBOL: Common Business-Oriented Language – an older computer programming language still used in some legacy financial systems. AI agents: Software that can act semi-independently to carry out tasks on behalf of a user. On-chain books and records: Official ownership and transaction records kept on a blockchain. Stablecoin: A digital asset designed to track the value of a traditional currency, such as the US dollar or pound. Fiat currency: Government-issued money, such as pounds, dollars or yen, that is not backed by a physical commodity such as gold. USDC: A stablecoin issued by Circle that is designed to track the value of the US dollar. FCA: The Financial Conduct Authority, the UK regulator for financial services firms and markets. Burn a token: Permanently cancel or destroy a digital token so it can no longer be used. Remit a token: Re-issue a token to a new wallet. Neobank: A digital-first bank, usually operating mainly through apps or online services.
The US public’s tastes and habits are fragmenting, leading to new consumer behaviours. The shift from a handful of TV networks to an endless supply of streamed shows and social media clips is just one of many causes. Investment manager Dave Bujnowski discusses the characteristics that determine which growth companies should thrive in the resulting ‘high entropy’ environment. Dave Bujnowski is an investment manager in our US Equity Growth Team and co-manager of the Baillie Gifford U.S. Equity Growth Fund and our American Fund. In this conversation, he tells Short Briefings… host Leo Kelion about his work with anthropologist Dr Grant McCracken, studying the causes and effects of the fragmentation of American culture. They believe that US culture is a system that has entered a ‘high entropy state’ – meaning that tastes and habits no longer change in an orderly manner. The result is “tremendous instability” and a sense of “continual pandemonium”. This shift, they argue, has implications for growth companies and helps explain why some are struggling to maintain mass-market appeal. But the disorder also plays to others' advantage, and they have sought to identify which will thrive and why. Portfolio companies discussed include: · Cloudflare – the service that protects websites from attack and optimises their performance · DraftKings – the sports gambling platform that lets Americans bet on sporting events · Samsara – the Internet of Things specialist helping companies track and make sense of data · SharkNinja – the home appliance company behind the CREAMi ice-cream maker · Shopify – the ecommerce platform serving merchants · Resources: Dr Grant McCracken Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking podcast archive The Long View collection Thinking in Systems When systems fragment: entropy, cultural change and the next great US companies Companies mentioned include: · Alphabet (Google) · Amazon · Cloudflare · DraftKings · Meta · Netflix · Samsara · SharkNinja · Shopify · SpaceX Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 02:05 System-level thinking 03:20 How change happens 06:10 Entropy and fragmentation 08:15 A conversation with Cloudflare’s CEO 10:20 Ants and anthropology 13:25 Grant McCracken on North Sea culture 15:15 The causes of splintering culture 17:05 New consumer behaviours 19:15 Challenging times for lululemon 21:00 Shopify and agility 23:10 Agentic commerce 25:40 SharkNinja and new niches 28:30 DraftKings and cultural anchors 30:40 Samsara’s entropy antidote 32:10 Finance and space: systems to watch 33:50 Book choice Glossary of terms (in order of mention): Entropy: In this podcast, a metaphor for systems becoming more fragmented, varied and harder to predict. Cash flows: The money moving into and out of a business. Market cap: The total stock-market value of a company: share price multiplied by number of shares. S&P 500: A major US stock-market index of large companies. Second law of thermodynamics: A physics principle often simplified as the tendency of energy in a closed system to spread out over time. Mainframe: A large, central computer used by organisations to process major computing tasks. Big iron: Informal technology term for large, powerful central computers. MMA: Mixed martial arts, a full-contact combat sport. Delulu: Internet slang for optimistic or unrealistic self-belief. Short for ‘delusional’. Traffic aggregation: Bringing together large numbers of users or customers in one place, often online. Total addressable market (TAM): The total potential market size for a product or service if it reached all possible customers. Prediction markets: Markets where people trade contracts based on the likelihood of future events. Internet of Things: Everyday equipment connected to the internet so it can collect and share data.
Bottlenecks often act as constraints on growth, but companies that create funnels through them can gain pricing power and capture long-term value. Investment manager Mike Taylor reveals some of the companies he thinks achieve this best and how he spots such pinch points before they fully form. Mike Taylor is a Baillie Gifford partner, an investment manager in its Global Alpha Strategy and a co-manager of The Monks Investment Trust. In this conversation, he tells Short Briefings… host Leo Kelion about how bottlenecks can confer an advantage on companies that sit astride them. That includes those that serve a mismatch between supply and demand created by others, and those whose products and services create a new pinch point, which they control. In addition, he explains why mixing a cocktail of bottlenecks in his portfolios can deliver smoother growth for their shareholders. Portfolio companies discussed include: Medpace – the drug and biologic contract research organisation Games Workshop – the maker of the Warhammer tabletop battle games Tidewater – the provider of offshore vessels to the oil and gas sector Freeport-McMoRan – the mining company that produces gold and copper, among other minerals DISCO – the precision tools company, widely used in the semiconductor industry Samsung Electronics – the electronics conglomerate SK Hynix – the memory chip specialist Resources: Don’t Burn Your Boats: the case for selective AI investing Global Alpha Investment Strategy SPQR: A History of Ancient Rome Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking podcast archive The Monks Investment Trust Valuing scarcity in the age of AI Companies mentioned include: Amazon DISCO Games Workshop Tidewater Freeport-McMoRan Medpace NVIDIA Samsung Electronics Sandoz SK Hynix Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 02:10 Investing inside and outside Baillie Gifford 03:55 Defining bottlenecks 04:45 How Medpace helps biotechs meet regulatory requirements 07:35 Founder-leader, August Troendle 09:30 Stress testing the bottleneck 12:00 Games Workshop creates its own pinch point 14:50 Shepherding Warhammer over the long term 17:45 Mixing bottlenecks to reduce volatility 20:05 Tidewater and the coming offshore vessel shortage 23:30 Freeport-McMoRan feeds the US’s copper needs 26:20 AI bottlenecks: silicon wafers and high-bandwidth memory 30:00 Enduring versus fleeting bottlenecks 31:25 Book choice Glossary of terms (in order of mention): Adenovirus: A common type of virus that can cause mild illnesses such as colds, sore throats or conjunctivitis, but can also be modified for medical uses such as delivering genes into cells. Gene therapy: A treatment that works by adding, altering or replacing genes inside a patient’s cells to treat disease. Clinical trials: Research studies in people that test whether a medicine, treatment or medical approach is safe and effective. FDA: The US Food and Drug Administration, the regulator responsible for approving medicines, vaccines and medical devices in the United States. Contract research organisation: An organisation that helps biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies run clinical trials. Private partnership: A business owned by its partners rather than by public shareholders. Supernormal profits: Profits above what would normally be expected in a competitive market. Supply side: The part of an industry concerned with how much of a product or service companies can provide. Demand side: The part of an industry concerned with how much customers want or need a product or service. Rate limiter: The factor that determines the maximum speed at which something can grow, expand or be produced. Novel therapies: New types of medical treatments, often based on recent scientific advances. Intellectual property (IP): Legal rights over creations such as brands, stories, characters, designs, patents or software. Free cash flow: The cash a company produces after paying the costs needed to run and maintain the business. Energy transition: The shift from fossil-fuel-based energy systems toward lower-carbon sources such as renewables, batteries and electrification. Compute: The processing power needed to train or run AI models or other computing tasks. High-bandwidth memory (HBM): A type of advanced memory chip that can move very large amounts of data quickly to processors, making it especially useful for AI systems. Steam turbine: A device that uses steam to spin a wheel or rotor, converting heat energy into mechanical motion.
A series of “extraordinary” events has made the environment more challenging for growth stocks. But “this level of trepidation can’t go on forever”, says Baillie Gifford partner Stuart Dunbar in this latest episode, suggesting that patient investors will benefit when stability returns and the markets value exceptional companies at a premium again. Stuart Dunbar is a director in Baillie Gifford’s Clients Department and is responsible for helping shape and communicate the firm’s investment philosophy. In this conversation, he considers how a succession of disruptive events – the most recent being the current war in the Middle East – has rattled markets and led investors to focus on companies’ short-term profits rather than their long-term potential. However, this period of flux will not last forever, he argues. And when we re-enter a period of stability, patience should be rewarded as markets recognise exceptional companies’ future earnings potential and price them accordingly. In the meantime, Baillie Gifford’s investment teams remain focused on finding and supporting businesses that will prosper from change and supporting their management to take the long view. And as Dunbar reveals, as the sources of growth broaden out, we are backing some companies that come as a surprise. Portfolio companies discussed include: Astera Labs – the semiconductor chip designer, whose products tackle data bottlenecks in AI datacentres IREN – the datacentre operator whose clients include Microsoft Medpace – a contract research organisation that biotech and pharmaceutical companies hire to run their clinical trials Nu Holdings – owner of the Latin American fintech Nubank Spotify – the audio streaming platform that lets people listen to music, podcasts and audiobooks WillScot – North America’s largest provider of temporary space rentals, leasing out modular offices, portable storage containers and classroom units Resources: Actual investors hub Actual investing revisited Baillie Gifford podcasts Private growth investing The Compound and Friends podcast The Success Equation Companies mentioned include: AJ Bell Amazon Anthropic Astera Labs ByteDance IREN Medpace Microsoft Nu Holdings NVIDIA Spotify WillScot Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 02:00 Active v passive 03:35 “Know what we own” 06:15 Building relationships with company leaders 07:55 Causes and effects of uncertainty 11:05 Beyond the Magnificent 7 12:45 A period of relative stability 17:50 Compressed valuations 19:25 Nubank and Medpace’s promise 23:10 Meetings with clients 25:40 Broader sources of growth 28:15 Private equity growth 31:25 Better-informed stock picking 33:25 Staying independent and standalone 35:45 “Wait until the market comes to its senses” 37:10 Book choice Glossary of terms (in order of mention): Latent heat: energy absorbed or released during a change of state, like ice melting, without a change in temperature. Active investing: trying to beat the market by choosing investments based on research and judgement. Passive funds: investment funds that track a market index rather than picking stocks actively. Quantitative approaches: investment methods that use data, models and statistics to make decisions. Market capitalisation weights: an index method that gives bigger companies a larger influence based on their total market value. Alignment of incentives: making sure different parties are rewarded in ways that encourage the same goals. Drawdowns: significant falls in the value of an investment from a previous peak. R&D: research and development – spending on innovation and new products or technologies. Backdate options: setting share-option dates retrospectively to make them more valuable, often controversially. Shareholder registers: the official records of who owns a company’s shares. Benchmark: a standard, often an index, used to compare investment performance. Magnificent 7 / Mag 7: the seven giant US tech stocks that have dominated market performance in recent years. GPU: graphics processing unit – a specialised chip often used for AI computing because it handles parallel tasks well. Sub-market multiple: a valuation lower than the market average. Strategic asset allocation: deciding how much to invest in broad asset classes like shares, bonds or private markets. Benchmark-aware: closely focused on performance relative to a benchmark index. Venture capital: investment in early-stage, high-growth private companies. Private equity buyout funds: funds that buy controlling stakes in companies, often using debt. Private equity growth: investing in more mature private companies that are expanding but not yet public. Roadshow: presentations by company leaders to investors ahead of an IPO or fundraising. Alternative asset classes: investments outside traditional shares and bonds, such as private equity or infrastructure. Path dependency: the idea that outcomes are shaped by the sequence of earlier decisions and events.
From new cancer drugs to batteries and robotics – China’s top-tier growth companies are forging paths of their own rather than following in the west’s footsteps. Investment manager Sophie Earnshaw names companies that have caught her eye and explains why being a long-term stock picker differs in China from elsewhere. Background: Sophie Earnshaw is a decision-maker on our China Equities Strategy and joint manager of the Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust. In this conversation, she tells Short Briefings… host Leo Kelion about a select group of Chinese companies breaking new ground, supported by the state’s efforts to become self-sufficient in more of today’s critical technologies and a leader in some of those of the future. Earnshaw also details how the “phenomenal rate” at which companies are born, scale and die in the country makes stock-picking a challenging task – making the access we have to company leaders, academics and other local expertise core to our mission of finding the best firms to invest in on behalf of our clients. Portfolio companies discussed include: - CATL – the battery maker whose products power electric vehicles worldwide and increasingly support the renewable energy sector - BeOne and Innovent Biologics – pharmaceutical firms developing the next generation of cancer drugs - AMEC and NAURA – semiconductor equipment makers enabling China to develop increased self-reliance in computer chips - Alibaba, ByteDance and Tencent – China’s ‘big tech’ companies, whose artificial intelligence tools are becoming embedded into people’s daily lives - MiniMax – the AI startup rolling out video and agentic tools at a fraction of the cost of western counterparts - Horizon Robotics – the automated driving tech provider with its eye on an even bigger opportunity. Resources: Baillie Gifford podcasts China: a tale of two stories China investment strategy hub (institutional clients only) House of Huawei Private investor forum 2025: investing in great growth companies Trip notes: on the road with Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust Companies mentioned include: Alibaba AMEC ASML BeOne ByteDance CATL Horizon Robotics Innovent Biologics Jiangsu Hengrui Huawei MiniMax Samsung NAURA Tencent TSMC Xiaohongshu Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 01:55 Joining the China Equities Strategy 02:40 Intense competition 04:00 The government’s influence 06:10 CATL, the electrification champion 08:45 Investing with a 5-year time horizon 10:25 Shanghai office, local expertise 11:45 Regulations and geopolitics 14:30 China’s next Five-year Plan 16:15 Innovent Biologics’ new cancer drugs 18:10 Lower-cost clinical trials 19:45 Being selective in semiconductors 21:25 Investing in chip equipment makers 23:00 China’s ‘big tech and AI’ 25:10 MiniMax making AI like ‘tap water’ 27:45 The road to robotics 29:35 A market you can’t ignore 30:30 Book choice Glossary of terms (in order of mention): Third plenum: a major policy meeting of China’s ruling Communist Party, often used to set big economic/political direction. Sovereign bond issuance: The government raising money by selling bonds (IOUs) to investors. Opportunity set: the range of investable companies available to choose from. Capex: capital expenditure – money spent on long-term assets like factories, equipment, or data centres. Fiscal deficit target: how much more the government plans to spend than it collects in revenue (taxes plus other income), expressed as a share of the economy. GDP: gross domestic product – the total value of goods and services a country produces in a year. Market capitalisation: the total value of a company’s shares (share price × number of shares). ESG: environmental, social and governance – how a company manages environmental impact, people issues, and corporate oversight. Large-form batteries: big battery packs used in things like electric vehicles and grid storage. Energy storage systems: large batteries that store electricity for later use (helping balance the grid). Generic drugs: copies of medicines whose patents have expired; usually cheaper, same active ingredient. Bi-specific (bispecific) drugs: drugs designed to bind to two targets at once (often to direct immune cells to cancer). ADC drugs: antibody–drug conjugates – antibodies that deliver a toxic payload to cancer cells. Out-licensing: selling rights to your drug/technology to another company (often for upfront + milestone payments). EUV machines: extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment used to make the most advanced chips. Foundry: a factory business that manufactures chips for other companies. Etch and deposition: steps in chipmaking – etch removes material to form patterns, deposition adds thin layers. Picks and shovels: a metaphor for companies that sell essential tools to an industry (rather than end products). Digitalisation: moving processes and services from offline to software and data-driven systems. Compute: the processing power (chips and servers) used to train/run AI. Large language model (LLM): an AI trained on lots of text to generate and understand language. Margins: how much profit a company makes per pound/dollar of revenue (after costs). Cloud business: selling computing power/storage/software over the internet instead of on a local machine. Algorithm layer: the method or software logic that makes the AI work (as distinct from the hardware). Gross margin: revenue minus direct costs (before overheads), a rough measure of product profitability. Assisted driving: features that help a driver (lane-keeping, adaptive cruise control, etc) but don’t fully replace them. Autonomous driving: a car driving itself with minimal or no human input. Software attachment rate: the percentage of customers who add paid software features and/or subscriptions.
With developments in generative AI progressing at such a furious pace, how can investors cut through the noise to identify the companies that will really matter? Baillie Gifford’s Kyle McEnery shares his approach to meeting the entrepreneurs building the future – including his encounters with AppLovin, Anthropic, NVIDIA, Roblox and Reddit. Background: Kyle McEnery is an investment manager in our Long Term Global Growth Team (LTGG) and previously led Baillie Gifford’s Artificial Intelligence Research Project. In this conversation, he tells host Leo Kelion why AI’s ever-increasing capabilities make this one of the most exciting times to be a growth investor, and how leadership and culture act as signals in the noise to help identify companies with the greatest long-term growth potential. In addition to discussing which of the firms enabling and using today’s language-based ‘frontier’ AI models are leading the pack, he explains how efforts to understand and simulate real-world physics could unlock further progress. Portfolio companies discussed include: Anthropic – developer of the Claude AI models, which excel at coding, among other tasks. NVIDIA – the semiconductors firm whose accelerator chips are powering many of the advances in generative AI. Roblox – the video games platform whose Cube 3D technology allows creators to build objects and environments out of text-based descriptions. AppLovin – the ad-tech company whose AI-first strategy keeps the business lean and nimble. Reddit – the online discussion forum, whose authentic human conversations are gaining in value as a counterpoint to AI-generated output. Resources: AI and the future of everything: a long-term perspective Anthropic: why we are backing the AI frontrunner Long Term Global Growth Strategy (institutional investors only) LTGG philosophy and process (institutional investors only) Private companies: from Anthropic to Zetwerk The forge of intelligence: exploring the rise of physical AI Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking hub Companies mentioned include: Alphabet/Google Amazon Anthropic AppLovin Horizon Robotics NVIDIA Reddit Roblox Tesla Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction – Dartmouth College’s artificial intelligence workshop 01:50 From quantum to AI via asset management 02:50 Creating and then culling a machine-learning initiative 08:05 ChatGPT’s wake-up call 10:35 Exceptional companies at the dawn of generative AI 12:10 Anthropic’s appeal to business customers 14:55 A winner-takes-all opportunity? 17:05 Dario Amodei and the scaling laws 19:10 NVIDIA’s foundational role in neural networks 22:55 Making video game items in Roblox with AI 25:00 AppLovin – a company built for the next era 26:55 Reddit’s valuable conversational communities 29:35 World models, spatial AI and the physical world 32:35 Staying open-minded and humble 33:35 Book choice Glossary of terms (in order of mention): Generative AI: AI systems that create new content such as text, images or code rather than just analysing data. Machine learning: AI techniques where systems learn patterns from data rather than being explicitly programmed. End-to-end, systematic (investment strategy): Fully automated, with decisions made by predefined rules rather than human judgement. Agentic AI: AI systems that can plan and carry out tasks autonomously rather than just responding to prompts. R&D: Research and development. GPT: OpenAI’s models, which power its ChatGPT chatbot. Natural language processing: AI that enables computers to understand and generate human language. Token: A chunk of text, such as a word or part of a word, used by language models. Foundation models: Large AI models that can handle a wide variety of tasks. Know your customer (KYC): Financial checks used by banks to verify customers’ identities and risks. Scaling laws: The idea that AI performance improves predictably as models, data and computing power increase. Compute: The processing power required to train and run AI models. Jevons’ paradox: The counterintuitive idea that efficiency gains can increase, rather than reduce, overall usage. CUDA: NVIDIA’s software platform for programming its chips for high-performance computing. Jensen: Jensen Huang, NVIDIA’s co-founder and chief executive. Metaverse: Shared virtual worlds where people interact, create and play online. Large language models (LLMs): AI systems trained on vast amounts of text to understand and generate language. Multimodal models: AI systems that can process multiple types of data, such as text, images and video. World models: AI systems that learn how the physical world works in order to predict and simulate it. Embodied AI: AI that learns through physical interaction with the real world, such as robots or vehicles. Imitation learning: Training AI by having it copy actions demonstrated by humans.
From Pony.ai launching a robo-taxi service during a Shanghai storm to E Ink revolutionising the way supermarkets label their shelves – emerging market companies are in many cases leapfrogging western counterparts. In this episode, investment manager Alice Stretch reveals to host Leo Kelion some of the most disruptive companies innovating at speed in Asia and Latin America. Background: Alice Stretch is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s Emerging Markets Equity Team. In this conversation, recorded as part of our annual Disruption Week briefings, she explores some of the growth companies in her portfolios turning constraints to their advantage and reducing friction in their customers’ lives. Companies discussed include: PolicyBazaar – the Indian insurance platform making it easier for people to protect themselves against life’s financial shocks. Nubank – the Brazilian digital lender extending access to banking and credit. Meituan – the food delivery and local services app extending its reach beyond China. MercadoLibre – the Latin American ecommerce and fintech giant expanding into advertising. Mobile World – the Vietnamese conglomerate that has expanded from mobile phones to competitively priced groceries. Sea Ltd – the Singaporean gaming, shopping and fintech group eyeing the possibilities of agentic AI. TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) – the world’s leading chip manufacturer. E Ink – the Taiwanese e-paper pioneer building on its ebook success to provide supermarkets with updateable price tags and marketers with low-power digital billboards. Pony.ai – the first driverless car company to offer a robo-taxi service in four of China’s most populous cities. Resources: Disruption Week Emerging markets: how we do what we do Emerging markets: from imitators to innovators Emerging markets: the next engines of growth (podcast) Emerging markets in 2050: growth in a changing world Imec Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking hub Companies mentioned include: Amazon ByteDance Chroma E Ink MercadoLibre Mobile World Meituan Nubank NVIDIA PolicyBazaar Pony.ai Sea Ltd Stellantis TSMC Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction – Pony.ai takes to Shanghai’s roads 02:00 The imitators become the innovators 05:10 How PolicyBazaar benefits from not being locked into a legacy system 07:10 Nubank: reducing friction while expanding access to banking and credit 09:25 MercadoLibre’s multi-act expansion leads it to advertising technology 10:25 Mobile World’s move from selling handsets to groceries 11:50 Ways Sea Ltd developed capabilities while operating under constraints 13:45 Sea CEO Forrest Li’s ability to adapt and pivot 15:25 Taking the long-term view and a generalist approach 17:30 Studying the semiconductor industry with the help of Imec and TSMC 19:45 Investing in Chroma and E Ink in Taiwan 21:10 Walmart and other supermarkets adopt E Ink’s updateable price labels 22:45 The case for investing in Pony.ai as a long-term growth investor 24:10 Pony.ai’s cost advantage and international partnerships 25:55 Taking macroeconomic and geopolitical risk into account 27:15 Putting deep knowledge and research to our clients’ advantage
AI lab Anthropic, digital bank Revolut, Chinese social network Xiaohongshu and supply chain specialist Zetwerk count among Baillie Gifford’s most recent private growth company investments. These bold pioneers are part of an expanding asset class, representing some of the world’s fastest growing and most disruptive businesses. Investment manager Robert Natzler tells host Leo Kelion how and why we backed them on behalf of our clients. Background: Robert Natzler is an investment manager on our Private Companies Team and deputy manager of The Schiehallion Fund. In this conversation, recorded as part of our annual Disruption Week briefings, he brings you up to date on his team’s recent activity, bringing our tally of private company investments to more than 160, with a total value of over $10bn. Companies discussed include: Mottu – the motorcycle rental and service provider, serving gig workers and others in Latin America. Revolut – the digital bank that has surpassed HSBC and other traditional lenders in terms of its customer count. Anthropic – the frontier AI lab behind the chatbot and coding champion Claude. Xiaohongshu – the Chinese social network, also known as RedNote, with a strong and growing following, especially among young women. Zetwerk – the outsourcing specialist giving western brands and manufacturers the ability to broaden their supply chains beyond China. Resources: About Robert Natzler Disruption Week From code to culture: private companies shaping the world Private Companies Team Private growth: looking over the overlooked Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking hub Why we are backing Anthropic Companies mentioned include: Anthropic ByteDance Mottu Revolut Xiaohongshu (RedNote) Zetwerk Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction – Mottu CEO Rubens Zanelatto’s masterstroke 02:20 Investing in ‘real’ companies with ambitious leaders 05:20 Helping growth-stage companies prepare to go public 08:35 Exceptional companies in California and beyond 09:55 Mottu: providing motorcycles and maintenance to an underserved segment 13:10 Revolut: pursuing a different playbook to traditional banks 16:35 Gaining conviction in AI lab Anthropic 23:40 Dario Amodei’s appeal to other AI talent 24:30 Xiaohongshu (RedNote)’s popularity among women in China’s wealthiest cities 26:25 Zetwerk: expanding access to factories around the world 28:37 How Baillie Gifford clients can access private companies 29:35 Taking a global perspective on private companies
From using AI to create better weather forecasts to helping people with disabilities get their dream job, Japan’s small companies are a disruptive force.
“If you’re trying to find the very best growth businesses on the planet – a benchmark isn’t a sensible place to start.” Baillie Gifford’s chief executive Tim Campbell explains the advantages of our style of active investing, the importance of long-termism and how AI fits into our process. Background: In April, Tim Campbell became Baillie Gifford’s chief executive and one of its managing partners. Earlier in his career, he was an investment manager before switching to Client Services, where he led our Emerging Markets Clients Team. In this podcast, he explores how our investment teams adopted a conviction-led approach that centres on each company's merits, regardless of its weighting in benchmark stock indices. He describes what we mean by long-termism and the importance of having the right incentives in place. And he explains why being “out of step” with some market trends helps us serve both society and our clients’ interests. The second half of the show focuses on changes afoot, ranging from further private company investments – including a recent holding in AI lab Anthropic – to our own adoption of artificial intelligence technologies and an exploration of new ways to access our strategies. Resources: Baillie Gifford: Actual investors Disruption Week Drayton and Mackenzie One Useful Thing: Ethan Mollick’s blog Our history Private company investments Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking The Friction Project Companies mentioned include: Anthropic Amazon MercadoLibre NVIDIA Runway AI Timecodes 00:00 Introduction 02:10 From music in the Middle East to investing in Edinburgh 03:15 Making the move to Client Services 05:00 Rewriting the investment playbook 06:30 Client hunger for benchmark agnosticism 07:40 Active versus passive investing 10:20 A mutual understanding with clients 11:55 Drawdowns and hold discipline 14:30 Defining long-termism 17:00 Private company investments 19:30 Investing in Anthropic and Runway AI 24:55 ‘The mission doesn’t change’ 27:35 Book choice
Inside ownership can give companies an advantage when it comes to long-term growth. That includes having a leader or family with a substantial stake in the business. And it also covers firms with farsighted backers, such as philanthropic foundations, which encourage management to take the long view. From airline Ryanair to hearing aid specialist Demant, investment manager Jenny Davis explores how having skin in the game drives firms to act with persistence. Background: Jenny Davis is a Baillie Gifford partner and an investment manager in our International Alpha Team. She specialises in companies based outside the US that offer ‘quality growth’ – combining the potential for outperformance with durability. In this podcast, she explores how persistent, inside ownership works to the advantage of companies she has backed. Examples include firms with founders who have retained a significant stake, those with long-serving hired leaders rewarded with shares and other long-term incentives, companies with family owners where control has passed between generations, and businesses backed by a foundation or holding company with long-term objectives. Companies covered include: Discovery – the health insurer that has gone global, using data to nudge customers into improving their fitness. Ryanair – the European airline that benefited from its chief executive’s obsession with controlling costs. Technoprobe – the family-run ‘probe card’ specialist whose ability to spot faults in computer chips has kept pace with semiconductors’ increasing complexity. Demant – the hearing aid specialist backed by a charitable foundation, which has invested in getting closer to its customers. Scout24 – the German property portal whose independence Baillie Gifford helped preserve, allowing it to pursue a successful long-term growth strategy. Resources: Baillie Gifford A new age of discovery: the case for international (restricted to certain clients) Pioneers: 8 Principles of Business Longevity from Immigrant Entrepreneurs Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking Companies mentioned include: Demant Discovery Ltd Ferrari Hermès Investor AB LVMH Novo Nordisk Richemont Ryanair Scout24 Shimano Technoprobe TSMC Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 01:55 The “scenic route” to asset management 03:00 Focusing on quality growth 04:35 Persistence’s enduring edge 05:45 Different types of inside ownership 06:30 Discovery’s healthy nudges 08:10 Adrian Gore’s visionary leadership 09:45 How Michael O’Leary turbocharged Ryanair 12:45 Ryanair’s scale advantage 14:00 Technoprobe’s family leadership 16:25 Engaging with Richemont’s Johan Rupert 18:30 Demant’s long-term philanthropic backer 20:55 Providing persistence’s benefits to Scout24 22:55 Selling out of Credit Suisse 24:30 Persistence and alignment 26:10 Book choice
From microloans for farmers to free savings accounts for the ‘unbanked’ to customised insurance for gig workers to a cheaper, faster way for migrants to send money to loved ones: a growing range of services is helping many of the world’s least advantaged citizens increase their financial resilience. Previously, banks and other traditional lending institutions overlooked these customers. But as impact director Ed Whitten explains, by backing the companies now involved, you have an opportunity to improve people’s lives and achieve strong growth. Background: Ed Whitten is an impact director in Baillie Gifford’s Positive Change Strategy. Its dual objective is to provide our clients with attractive returns while contributing to a more inclusive, healthy world. Whitten’s role is to ensure that the companies it holds fulfil the second part of that pledge. In this episode, he explores the topic of financial inclusion, explaining why the companies involved need to do more than simply provide access to loans, insurance and money transfers. Topics include how firms can use data and apps to deliver customised services that address specific people’s needs while protecting them from indebtedness. Whitten also explains how conversations with the companies Positive Change backs can nudge them towards better outcomes, such as providing customers with better financial education. And he explores the importance of helping people gain financial resilience against the effects of climate change and other events that could otherwise devastate their livelihoods. Companies covered include: Nubank – the digital-only bank used by most Brazilian adults that’s also growing in Mexico and Colombia. Grab – the south-east Asian ride-hailing and delivery service that provides loans and insurance to drivers and merchants using its platform. Remitly – the remittance service offering migrants a quick, low-cost and reliable way to transfer money to family and friends. HDFC Bank – the Indian lender expanding its rural branch network to explain face-to-face how its services can put customers on a better financial path. Resources: Case study: Maliga Nubank’s Beyond Access study Positive Conversations 2024 The Song of the Cell Trip Notes: Brazil ( UK version / Ex-UK version ) Companies mentioned include: Chime Bank Rakyat Indonesia Grab HDFC Bank MercadoLibre Nubank Remitly Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 02:05 From the British Army to impact investing 03:40 A sustainable, inclusive, healthy world 04:25 The different types of financial inclusion 05:40 Eyes open to the risks of indebtedness 06:45 Volatile repayment rates 07:35 Beyond accessibility: the personalisation of products 09:05 Partnering with CGAP and other development bodies 10:25 Nubank’s Caixinha money boxes 12:45 Nubank’s Mexican banking licence 14:15 Ensuring growth comes with impact 15:20 Grab’s loans and insurance 16:40 Grab’s data-driven approach to risk 19:45 The fast growth of remittances 21:25 Remitly’s cheaper money transfers 22:35 Gaining market share from Western Union 23:40 HDFC Bank’s expanding rural branch network 24:55 Financial inclusion in advanced economies 26:55 The ‘lucrative customers of the future’ 28:15 Book choice
Emerging markets are reshaping the global economy, and a convergence of powerful, long-term trends is accelerating this shift. These include surging demand for commodities, exploding middle-class spending power and booming inter-regional trade. Investment specialist Andrew Keiller reveals some of the standout growth companies positioned to capitalise on this transformation and why now might be the perfect time to take advantage. Background: Andrew Keiller is a partner in Baillie Gifford and an investment specialist in our Emerging Markets Clients Team. In this episode, he discusses how some of the fastest-growing developing economies are driving change in the world and the forces that could further hasten that trend. The discussion builds on his recent paper, Emerging markets in 2050: growth in a changing world, which identifies long-term structural shifts tilting the odds in favour of standout companies in Asia, Latin America and eastern Europe. In the podcast, he expands on this by identifying some of the companies that could be big winners, including: the lithium miner SQM (Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile), which is set to benefit from a mismatch in supply and demand for the critical ingredient to electric car batteries and other energy storage systems the South Korean high bandwidth memory chipmaker, SK Hynix, whose products are critical to training artificial intelligence systems at speed the ‘super-app’ operator Kaspi.kz, which provides everything from bill payments, banking and travel bookings to shopping, maps and messaging the Singaporean ecommerce, fintech and gaming conglomerate Sea, whose chief executive has ambitions to extend into further sectors China’s biggest coffee chain, Luckin Coffee, which is giving the country’s 1.4 billion citizens a passion for the beverage with its ever-changing menu of inventive recipes In addition, Keiller discusses the implications of President Trump’s tariffs and why many Chinese companies still offer an exciting investment opportunity. Resources: Emerging markets in 2050: growth in a changing world Emerging markets: our philosophy Emerging markets: rethinking the opportunity Finding high-calibre growth companies in emerging markets (podcast) Luckin Coffee: looking forward Kaspi's super-app South-east Asia’s rising export stars (podcast) SQM: powering the future The Time-Travelling Economist by Charlie Robertson Companies mentioned include: Kaspi.kz Luckin Coffee Sea SK Hynix SQM Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 01:35 Baillie Gifford beginnings and a trip to Hong Kong 03:15 Transformational trends playing out to 2050 and beyond 05:05 US exceptionalism and multiple spheres of influence 07:25 Rising trade between emerging market nations 08:35 Redesigning Chinese e-scooters for Vietnam and the Philippines 10:15 The possibility of reduced reliance on the US dollar 11:40 Increasing demand for raw materials and semiconductors 12:35 Digital-first companies and underserved communities 14:45 Four types of firms capitalising on long-term growth factors 16:25 SQM’s lithium mines in Chile’s Atacama Desert 17:55 Lithium’s long-term commodity cycle opportunity 18:45 SK Hynix’s high bandwith memory and its role in AI 20:40 Kaspi.kz’s Kazakh super-app 21:40 Kaspi’s expansion plans in Uzbekistan and beyond 23:00 Sea’s founder Forrest Li and importance of culture 24:30 Luckin Coffee’s huge domestic opportunity 25:25 Luckin’s taste for invention 26:40 Investing in China amid a trade clash 28:50 The risk of underexposure 29:40 Book choice 30:55 Investing in Africa
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to "turbocharge" Britain's growth strategy in response to new US tariffs. His government is prioritising key sectors poised to drive prosperity, including advanced manufacturing, AI and the creative industries. Baillie Gifford's head of UK equity, Iain McCombie, discusses some of the companies already excelling in these sectors how they can prosper over the long term despite the current uncertainty.
Are European stocks coming back into favour? After years of underperformance, many of the continent’s companies appear undervalued when compared to their historical prices and US counterparts. Investment manager Stephen Paice suggests that a group of growth-focused stocks could be among the biggest winners if sentiment shifts, and he identifies a handful of places they are thriving.
Three technologies – quantum computing, reusable rockets and nuclear fusion – could change the trajectory of human progress. Find out how a trio of private companies is bringing them closer to fruition.
From smarter robots to intelligently designed drugs, Baillie Gifford partner Stuart Dunbar discusses some of the transformations that will define the years ahead.
The US’s transformational upgrade of its drainage, power and road networks is a long-term investment opportunity hiding in plain sight. In this podcast, Michael Taylor reveals some of the outstanding companies involved and makes the case that the markets have yet to fully appreciate the advantages working in their favour. Background: Michael Taylor is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s US Alpha strategy. In this Disruption Week briefing, he explains why years of neglect coupled with the destructive consequences of wild weather and our insatiable appetite for data-processing power have led the US to embark on a massive renewal of its physical infrastructure. Taylor suggests that many of the companies creating long-term value benefit from supply advantages, which help them defend their commoditised products’ prices. These range from ownership of gravel quarries, which are difficult to get planning permission for, to the use of a gigantic, portable plastic drain-making machine. In addition, Taylor discusses what a second Trump presidency might mean for the sector and why finding standout companies involves travelling off the beaten track. Resources: Disruption Week Building back: the great US infrastructure opportunity Spotting the winners from the great US infrastructure renaissance Companies mentioned include: Advanced Drainage Systems Eaton Comfort Systems USA Martin Marietta NVIDIA Stella-Jones Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 1:35 Exceptional businesses confronting an exceptional problem 3:20 The US v global infrastructure opportunity 4:35 Donald Trump’s second presidency 6:40 The benefits of patience 7:35 Wild weather 8:45 Investing in Advanced Drainage Systems 11:05 Labour shortages 12:15 Stella-Jones’s wooden telegraph poles 14:05 Tree-spotter specialists 16:15 Martin Marietta’s supply-side advantage 18:55 Recycled aggregates’ limitations 20:15 Finding US infrastructure investments 21:45 Comfort Systems USA and keeping datacentres cool 24:20 “Massive in terms of magnitude of spend and duration”
Many of the world’s most exciting, high-growth and disruptive companies are private. Moreover, the entrepreneurs running them are typically keeping them private for longer before trading their shares on public stock exchanges – and in some cases have no plans to do so. Baillie Gifford’s Private Companies Team seeks out exciting businesses and founders in this space to give our clients access to an increasingly important source of long-term growth. Taking a highly selective approach, it has invested more than $9bn across over 140 firms over the past 12 years. In this podcast, Alexander Nicolier explains how it does so and discusses some of our notable holdings. Background: Alexander Nicolier is an investment manager in our Private Companies Team. In this Disruption Week briefing, he reveals the scale of the opportunity and the increasing impact that the sector’s restless founders and their exceptional companies are delivering. From SpaceX to Bending Spoons, Epic Games to ByteDance, one of the distinguishing features of these pioneering firms is that they’ve been able to choose their shareholders. Nicolier reveals why Baillie Gifford’s patient approach and reputation have helped make us a favoured partner. He also reveals how deep research helps him and his colleagues embrace the uncertainty that can be involved with backing companies at an earlier stage of growth than many public market stocks. And he introduces some of his team’s most recent investments, including the immersive experience specialist Cosm and the next-generation computing company Tenstorrent. Resources: Alexander Nicolier profile Armand Spitz: seller of stars Baillie Gifford Private Companies hub Disruption Week Private companies: investing in trailblazers The hidden cost of software Companies mentioned include: Bending Spoons ByteDance Cosm Disney Epic Games Loft MercadoLibre Meta NuBank Oddity SpaceX Starlink Tempus Tencent Tenstorrent Tesla Timecodes: 0:00 Introduction 1:30 What’s often misunderstood about private companies 2:40 Relationship building in Brazil and Colombia 3:40 Why reputation matters 5:35 “Look out for a gringo” 6:30 Private markets’ scale 7:00 Our clients’ advantage 9:25 SpaceX and uncertainty 12:40 Dealing with setbacks 13:45 Bending Spoons’ business model 16:50 Cosm’s ‘shared reality’ experience 18:50 Tenstorrent and Jim Keller’s talent magnetism 20:20 The state of the IPO market 21:55 Why Epic Games has stayed private 25:00 Disney’s $1.5bn stake in Epic Games 26:40 “Too big to ignore”
