UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Investors and the Fed got a dose of relatively good economic data last week, yet interest rates rose again. Rising yields remains a dominant market story, however with a light calendar for economic data this week, and Q3 earnings season starting next week, macro might take a back seat in the near-term. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from UBS Chief Investment Office, weighs in on the current environment and how to position accordingly. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US employment report offered few reliable facts for investors, other than the reminder that data is revised a lot. If markets listened to economists with the reverence they deserve, that would not be a surprise. Markets were surprised—revisions suggest a weaker employment position. The sense of an affordability crisis is likely to be reinforced—wage growth after adjusting for inflation is near zero, and after adjusting for inflation perceptions is probably negative.

As long-term US Treasury yields have climbed to levels not seen in more than two decades and today's AI investment boom draws comparisons with the internet buildout, the 1999 cycle increasingly offers a useful point of reference. This episode explores the parallels and key differences between the two periods, and examines what rising term premiums and fiscal dynamics could mean for rates and portfolio positioning.

Housing affordability is under pressure across many major cities. Yet the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026 shows that housing markets are following increasingly different paths as accumulated financial wealth supports demand in prime residential segments. Is wealth overtaking income as a driver of demand? And how is that reshaping housing risk? In this episode of Across the Pond, host Belinda Ulander speaks with the index’s co-authors, Matthias Holzhey and Maciej Skoczek, about Zurich’s position at the top of the ranking, diverging trends across Europe, and the importance of selectivity for investors.

The US employment report has a wide range of estimates around the payrolls data. This is not surprising—labor market data precision is challenged by low response rates and structural changes in the way people work. The general expectation is for an OK report with stable unemployment.

Xingchen Yu, Senior Investment Strategist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, shares reflections from his latest trip to China, where AI ambition and seamless digital convenience coexist with cautious consumers, fierce competition, and lingering property pressures. Through stories from the ground, he explores an economy moving at two speeds, and what the latest Trump-Xi summit means for a relationship defined by both engagement and strategic competition. Reference Xingchen’s recent blog: Reflections on my latest trip to China, two years on. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The important point from yesterday’s US data was not the larger-than-expected downward pressures on reported inflation—these are technical changes that US consumers do not experience in their daily struggles with the affordability crisis. The important point was savings. Lowering savings rates are how US consumers keep spending. The savings rate level was revised higher. This suggests savings can pay for tariffs and oil prices for longer.

UK second quarter GDP was revised stronger, as new methods reveal how much new economic activity has been missed from the data. Rising real disposable incomes encouraged a rise in the UK household savings rate. If the Gulf war does not, in fact, turn into a forever war and oil prices come down, the impact on real disposable incomes should be positive; but that would probably then be used to rebuild savings rates rather than accelerate spending.

The rise in treasury yields continues to be top of mind for investors - Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, explains why they’re rising. We also touch on an outlook for oil prices, new developments in agentic AI, and what it all means for your portfolio. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Bond yields and oil prices continue their close relationship. Central banks are supposed to look through an oil price shock as being beyond their control. However, if central banks seemingly care about oil, the only policy remedy is to weaken the non-oil economy, as something they can control. In that case, higher oil prices make it more likely interest rates will have to rise to recession-inducing levels. We are not at that stage, but there are enough oil price comments to have markets contemplating more repressive monetary policies.

Following what was a busy week in both New York and Washington DC, Shane drops by to share some takeaways and reflections on the UN General Assembly, along with the three-day summit involving President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China. Plus, a look at legislative priorities of the US Senate ahead of the midterm elections. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Government Affairs Advisor, Government Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the wake of the September FOMC rate-hike, we discuss the implications of a Fed hiking cycle to emerging market assets, including equities and fixed income. We also cover the risks to emerging markets that investors should be mindful of. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China and the US agreed to lower tariffs on USD 30bn of each other’s products. China’s consumers will pay lower taxes when buying camels from the US. US anglers face lower taxes when buying fishhooks from China. The amounts involved are small—USD 30bn represents around two months of the tariff avoidance implied by a comparison of US and China trade data.

AI is advancing quickly, but turning that progress into profits depends on more than better models, with infrastructure availability and business adoption increasingly shaping the investment outlook. This episode explores why strong demand alone may not determine the leaders, how bottlenecks could redirect spending, and where we see the largest opportunities across compute, power, and applications.

A fireside chat featuring Jeffrey Gundlach, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of DoubleLine Capital, hosted by Solita Marcelli, UBS Global Head of Investment Management, which covers the current market and macro environment, including thoughts on the US economy, the Fed, and positioning across asset classes.

On this week’s episode, we catch up with Burkhard following his recent visit to Uganda and Ghana as he shares how economic and business development and investment is influencing Accra’s rapidly evolving landscape.

US Treasury Secretary “House” Bessent faces something of a housing problem. Despite Bessent’s efforts, US mortgage rates rose above 7% yesterday. The exact level is not important (except to the media, ever enraptured by round numbers). The increase erodes the spending power of new homeowners—and critically does so in a way that real income data does not capture. Inflation figures use a fictional housing cost measure, which hides the damage higher mortgage rates might do.

US 10-year Treasury bond yields moved sharply above 5%, and the USDJPY exchange rate is back above 158. US Treasury Secretary “House” Bessent seems to be demonstrating the house does not always win. For Gen Z bond traders, a 0.15-percentage point rise in yields is scary. For Gen X bond traders, it is mild. A variety of concerns came together to worry the markets.

Markets have not fully regained their earlier optimism bias, but are a little more cheerful. Yesterday, US President Trump signed an agreement essentially reaffirming the status quo with Greenland and Denmark—but spun it as change. Could a similar course be pursued with Iran? Trump’s UN speech was aggressive but both the US and Iranian regimes make frequent use of hyperbole. After the speech, there was playground diplomacy, with Qatar shuttling between the US and Iran carrying notes.

Open enrollment season is right around the corner, and for many employees, that means making decisions about healthcare, insurance, retirement savings, and other workplace benefits. But how much thought should we really put into those decisions each year? Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, and Justin Waring, Head of UBS Wealth Way Strategy & Solutions, both with the UBS Chief Investment Office Global Investment Management team, walk you through these considerations. Host: Daniel Cassidy