Published by Client Strategy Office
UBS On-Air: Market Moves brings you beyond the highs and lows of the ticker, with conversations that can broaden your thinking about market behavior
Listen on Apple Podcasts26 min
Doug Baker is a Portfolio Manager for Nuveen’s global fixed income team. Doug joins Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, for a comprehensive discussion on the preferred securities market. They cover a performance update and outlook, risk considerations, positioning views, and more.
3 min
US Michigan consumer sentiment data is a weak economic signal. It does have political punch, via the inflation expectations measure. Consumers focus on the price of frequent purchases (food and fuel), and tend to fixate on the price level. Most consumers will have a “fair” price in mind as a reference, and for gasoline prices that is probably around USD 2.50 per US gallon. Gasoline remains well above that level—off its highs, but having risen recently.
5 min
US President Trump asserted that talks with Iran are ongoing. Iran asserted that talks with the US are not happening. Markets tend to react if Trump has the authority to back statements—threatening military strikes is partially priced in, raising oil prices; retreating from military strikes lowers the oil price. But markets are less inclined to respond to Trump’s other statements without independent confirmation—hence today’s lack of reaction.
3 min
Federal Reserve Chair Warsh testified to Congress—at times sounding like a Bundesbank member, with a vehement denunciation of inflation. Warsh was keen to say the Fed was solely responsible for inflation—that is challenged by Fed research ascribing roughly 1ppt of last year’s inflation to US tariffs. Warsh also displayed a troubling fascination with the productivity pixie of artificial intelligence—technology is not a reliable driver of macroeconomic productivity, and believing that might result in policy mistakes.
26 min
A wide-ranging conversation on the landscape for broader fixed income investing and credit markets, including performance drivers, risk considerations, and what’s important for investors to focus on. Featured are Matt Brill, Head of North America Investment Grade Credit and Senior Portfolio Manager at Invesco, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office.
4 min
Oil prices moved to the lows of last Tuesday after a flurry of activity over the weekend. US President Trump called off military strikes against Iran—markets had not priced in military strikes anyway. An oil tanker then appeared to have been attacked near Oman. Trump then said talks with Iran would resume. Markets netted out these events and the optimism bias returned.
6 min
AI capabilities are advancing rapidly, supporting long-term demand for intelligence, but the path from innovation to deployment is becoming more uneven. This episode explores how bottlenecks in permitting, power, supply chains, and enterprise adoption could shape returns in the AI value chain, and where investors may find the most durable opportunities in applications and enabling infrastructure.
13 min
As the US-Iran conflict widens across the region, Shane updates on this week’s developments and how the conflict could evolve over the near-term. We also discuss what remains for the US Senate to address ahead of the planned summer recess, and whether lawmakers may remain in Washington DC to work through the legislative agenda. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy
11 min
A look at the factors behind the outperformance of emerging market assets over the past year, along with how the rise of AI and semiconductors has changed the nature of the emerging markets asset class. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
5 min
Japan’s Ministry of Finance seemingly intervened in foreign exchange markets in defense of the yen. Such attempts to prop up a currency’s level only work in the long term if the weakness was caused by speculation, or if the temporary respite is used to correct the fundamental economic drivers of the weakness. This may have been more about the pace of weakness than any specific level.
8 min
Andrew drops by the studio for an assessment of this week’s July FOMC meeting statement, and Q&A session with Chairman Kevin Warsh. We also discuss the factors behind the market response on Wednesday afternoon, along with CIO’s expectations for monetary policy into year-end, and beyond. Featured is Andrew Dubinsky, US Economist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
6 min
The Federal Reserve left interest rates (and the accompanying policy “statement”) unchanged yesterday. Fed Chair Warsh appeared to try and speak to several audiences. US President Trump was told inflation was the fault of the Fed but would come down. Households were told not to assume the Fed would allow higher inflation (most US households do not know the Fed’s job is to control inflation). And markets were told a lot of things.
10 min
Burkhard drops by to share his thoughts on the pattern with oil prices and the US-Iran conflict, how this week’s FOMC meeting outcome could set the tone for market direction in the second-half of the year, and whether the investor rotation in equities has further room to run.
35 min
Dan rejoins the conversation with Jason to exchange thoughts on how to approach asset allocation in today’s market and macro environment. We also spend time weighing potential directions for US monetary policy, along with geopolitical considerations, and factors that could impact fixed income return throughout the second-half of the year. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Dan Ivascyn, Group Chief Investment Officer for PIMCO. Host: Daniel Cassidy
6 min
Iran’s missile strikes against US Gulf military bases pushed oil prices modestly higher. It is a reminder of the challenge for investors—Iranians are clearly setting the agenda in the Gulf war, and investors do not know how to analyze the motives of the Iranian military. This constrains investors’ ability to price in plausible scenarios, and leaves little other than the default optimism bias to influence markets.
28 min
Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Letty Zemaitis, Frank Sileo, Sudip Mukherjee & Sangeeta Marfatia, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.
10 min
A quarterly check-up on the US macroeconomic environment, including consumer spending trends, the condition of the labor market, the road ahead for monetary policy, and the current landscape for deal-making. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
6 min
Technology equities are having one of their periodic convulsions—without any obvious economic driver. The South Korean market is at levels last seen in April. This underscores the speed of technology equities’ rise; that speed limits the correction’s economic consequences. Households are still likely to spend—cash stockpiles and the ability to reduce how much income has been saved, more than equity wealth effects, have been sustaining consumer spending.
18 min
As we approach the middle of the summer, investors continue to deal with a number of pesky market risks, including the prospect of the Fed hiking rates, a resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran, a new wave of tariffs, and ongoing concerns about AI capex spending. Yet through all of that the S&P 500 has been relatively steady. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to assess the current market environment, and shares CIO’s positioning recommendations. Host: Daniel Cassidy
20 min
In this episode of UBS On-Air, host Isaac Chota, Product Manager for Donor-Advised Funds at UBS, is joined by Michael Wilson from National Philanthropic Trust. Together, they explore how philanthropy can strengthen family bonds across generations and help families align their wealth with their values. Michael shares personal stories and practical insights on making charitable giving a meaningful part of financial planning, including how Donor-advised funds and strategic asset selection can maximize impact. Whether you’re new or a seasoned philanthropist, discover how giving can deepen relationships, engage the next generation, and create lasting legacies.
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Observed July 30, 2026.
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