Iran Talks, Record Markets, and Hollywood Fallout

Maya: Morning, everybody, and welcome back to the Morning Rundown. David: Glad you're here. Grab the coffee, settle in. We've got a lot today. Maya: So, um, first up, Washington's favorite hobby, secret Iran drama. Kushner and developer Steve Witkoff working a Pakistan backchannel, fresh U.S. sanctions on that Iran oil shadow fleet, plus a leaked Pentagon email even floating suspending Spain from NATO over Iran policy. I mean, come on. David: Yeah, when diplomats play cute with Iran, regular people pay with gas prices and and chaos. We'll sort what's real strategy and what is just DC flexing. Maya: Then markets, Nasdaq and S&P flirting with records, Nvidia near that $5 trillion mark, traders treating Intel and TSMC like AI lotto tickets, and DOJ quietly dropping the Powell probe. David: And hey, Microsoft finally letting you pause Windows updates for more than five minutes. Big tech might actually be listening. Kinda. Maya: So anyway, we'll swing from Wall Street to Hollywood with- And with the WGA contract, health cuts for writers, outrage over a stereotype in The Devil Wears Prada two, and new Michael Jackson abuse claims. David: Same pattern every time, right? Elites stay insulated, everyone else eats the cost. Maya: All right, let's get into it. World news and Iran on deck first. David: Stick around. This one matters. Maya: Okay, wild twist to start your morning. Jared Kushner and real estate guy Steve Witkoff are headed to Pakistan to talk about Iran? I mean, come on. David: Yeah, not some State Department roadshow. Axios says this is Kushner and Witkoff, Trump world business guys, suddenly in the middle of a back channel. Maya: And the White House is basically giving it a thumbs up. They are not running this, but they are blessing it, because Pakistan has lines into Tehran, the U.S. does not. not. David: Right, and this is classic pressure politics: you crank sanctions, you squeeze the cash, then you open a side door so Iran has a way to climb down if it wants. Maya: According to the Wall Street Journal, the US just hit more of Iran's oil network, including tankers in that so-called shadow fleet that moves sanctioned crude around. David: Those ghost ships matter. If you shut off that fleet, you hit the money that pays Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, all of it. Maya: Exactly. Here's the thing. Instead of the usual... Let's all just talk more vibe you hear from D.C. This is talk if you want, but the chokehold stays. David: Yeah, engagement with no leverage is just begging to be played. You need pain on the table or Iran keeps stalling while its nuclear program moves. Maya: The timing is brutal, too. Gaza is still getting hammered. Reuters has the latest report from health officials there saying the death toll is in the tens of thousands. David: And people see that and want a simple villain and hero story. But Hamas... Hamas started this war with that October 7th attack, and Iran's proxies are the ones trying to light up the whole region. Maya: You have rockets from Lebanon, drones from Yemen, militias in Iraq, all backed or armed by Tehran. So when the U.S. squeezes Iran's oil, that is not random. It is aimed at the network. David: And that's why markets freak every time a tanker gets hit in the Gulf. Oil spikes, then cools off the second there's even a hint of U.S.-Iran talks. Maya: Traders basically have a finger on the buy oil, sell oil button. button all day. David: For regular folks, this is gas prices, heating bills, airline tickets. So how Washington handles Iran is not some foreign policy seminar. It hits your wallet. Maya: Speaking of headaches, we also got this leaked Pentagon email about Spain and NATO. That's wild, right? David: Yeah, Politico reported on a note where a senior Pentagon official floated the idea you might even look at suspending Spain from NATO if Madrid bailed on the Iran war effort. Speaker 3: Wow. Maya: Suspend a f***ing Speaker 4: email. Maya: a founding Western ally? I mean, come on, that is not light language. David: No, and it shows the tension here. The U.S. sees Iran as a central security threat, not just to Israel, but to shipping lanes, to Europe, to everyone. Some European governments keep wobbling. Maya: Spain's left-leaning government has already been more critical of Israel, more cautious on hard power, so this clash was almost baked in. David: And Washington is basically saying, if you want the NATO shield, Still, you do not get to sit out when we're staring down a regime that funds terror across three continents. Maya: That's the conservative take in a nutshell: alliances are mutual defense, not a buffet line. David: Exactly. You don't have to love every U.S. move, but free riding while Iran's missiles and drones threaten everybody's economy is not serious policy. Maya: Let me push you, though: where's the line between tough love and blowing up the alliance? Threatening to kick Spain out of the club even as a trial balloon is heavy. David: Fair. I would say you start with private warnings, real consequences on military projects, that sort of thing. But if a government flat out refuses to defend shipping or help contain Iran, you at least have to talk about what NATO means anymore. Maya: So, basically money pressure on Tehran, alliance pressure on Europe, and then this weird Kushner-Witkoff lane as the face-saving option. David: Yeah, and all three are connected! If sanctions bite, Iran might want relief. If NATO holds firm, Iran feels isolated. Then a side door in Pakistan suddenly looks attractive. Maya: And if NATO cracks, Iran reads that as a green light, ramps up the proxies, and we're right back to oil prices jumping, markets sweating. David: Which brings us to the fun part, right? How markets are treating all this like just another trading signal. Maya: Right. On one side you have tankers, drones, leaked emails about How's about suspending allies? On the other, investors cheering record highs in monster chip profits. That's wild, right? David: So here's the question I keep coming back to. Are markets actually pricing the risk from Iran and NATO drama, or are they so obsessed with the AI boom that they're basically betting the war stuff will just sort itself out? Maya: Okay, talk to me like I'm checking the app in line for coffee. David: According to the Wall Street Journal, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both closed record highs, helped by oil prices easing as traders bet talks cool things off a bit. Speaker 5: Mm-hmm. Maya: basically, Wall Street's saying, yeah, the world's messy, but we still like stocks. David: Exactly. Risk is still there, but money guys are acting like it is manageable as long as oil does not spike. Maya: Which for normal people means your index fund is smiling, even if gas prices... still make you wince. David: Pretty much. Maya: Alright, speaking of wild games, Nvidia just hit a market value over $5 trillion. Bloomberg flagged that. $5 trillion. David: Wow. That number is insane. That is bigger than a lot of countries' entire economies. Maya: And it's not just vibes. Their chips are basically the shovel in the AI gold rush. Every data center, every big model needs those GPUs. David: Right, and the Journal's live blog said traders are treating Intel and... Well, and TSMC likes side bets on the Maya: That same race. David: Yeah, Intel especially; they dropped earnings and the stock went vertical because the chip unit finally showed some real AI demand. Maya: Still, I think there's a hype bubble element, but the thing is, the profits so far are actually showing up in the numbers. David: Same, I'm a little skeptical of every startup slapping AI on a pitch deck, but when you see cash flow from actual chips getting sold, that's different. Maya: For listeners, the simple version is this: If Nvidia, Intel, and TSMC stay hot... Not. The whole market mood stays pretty upbeat. David: And if those names roll over, that's usually your maybe the party's cooling off warning. Maya: One more thing helping the mood: The Journal also reported the Justice Department dropped its investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell's trading. David: Right, so that cloud over the Fed is gone. You want the referee in this game to at least look clean. Maya: Exactly. If people started questioning the Fed's honesty on top of everything else, rates and markets would be a mess. David: Hmm, so between calmer oil, AI profits and no Powell scandal, Wall Street wakes up feeling weirdly optimistic. That's wild, right? Maya: Cautious but yeah. And remember: for Washington, a strong stock market is basically free campaign advertising. David: Look at your 401k, folks you know the speech. Maya: Laughing, word for word. David: Okay, quick tech palate cleanser before we head to Hollywood. Microsoft just announced a small Windows change that that a lot of people have been begging for. Maya: Oh yeah, this made me happy in a very nerdy way. David: The Verge says Windows users will be able to pause system updates for a longer stretch instead of that tiny window where it feels like your laptop updates right in the middle of a Zoom call. Maya: Finally, nobody wants their computer to restart during taxes or a job interview. David: What I like about this is it fits a pattern. These giant companies are starting to act. To act like, okay, we hear you because regulators and users are both pushing back. Maya: Yeah, between antitrust heat and app store fights, they are learning that shoving changes down everyone's throat is bad business. David: And that connects to where we're going next, because tech money and algorithms have their hands all over what Hollywood makes and how we watch it. Maya: Exactly. So after the break, we are talking writers taking a tough deal, a new sequel getting hit with race backlash. and how the industry handles ugly allegations around big stars. David: Plus, why saying "sorry" after a tragedy does not cut it when you're running a giant tech or media empire. Maya: Stick around for that. David: Here's the thing. I want to start with the writers. Maya: Yeah, that new WGA deal. David: Right. According to Variety, members just ratified a new contract that actually trims the health plan. Big majority yes vote, but turnout was way lower than the strike vote last year. Maya: So on paper, big approval. In reality, a lot of people probably exhausted and broke just taking the least bad option. David: Exactly. You can only hold the line so long when rents are insane and work- And work his body. The studios know that. Maya: And the WGA leadership is selling it as "We protected the core," right? Still, once you start cutting health care, regular writers feel that before any showrunner does. David: Yeah, this is not Hollywood glam, this is can I see my doctor money. Speaker 3: Hmm. Maya: I also read some members saying they voted yes but felt boxed in, like say no and you risk another shutdown, say yes and your benefits shrink. David: Which to me screams burnout. People believe in unions, but they are also staring at their credit card bill. Maya: And meanwhile the same town preaching equity has no problem shaving off the health plan to keep budgets tight. David: Funny how that works. Maya: Okay, speaking of Hollywood values, we have this "Devil Wears Prada" too mess. David: Yeah, so reports say there's an Asian character written as a stereotype and advocacy groups are already blasting it even before cameras roll. I mean, come on. Maya: Here's where I get torn. Real stereotyping is bad, obvious; but there's also a cottage industry now of getting outraged on day one sometimes without context. David: Totally. You can push for better roles and still admit some activists and media outlets like the clicks. Maya: And studios get spooked: one angry thread and suddenly they're rewriting everything out of fear instead of actual respect. David: Plus, the standards are weird if a script pokes fun at, say, Midwestern Christians-that's edgy. If it's an Asian assistant, that's a federal case, right? Maya: Yeah, the double standard is real. The adult answer is read the script, see the performance, judge the whole thing, not a leaked line on social. David: But that requires patience, and Twitter doesn't do patience. Chuckling. Maya: Alright, last one, and this is heavier. New molestation and abuse claims surfacing around Michael Jackson, right as the biopic hits festivals. David: Deadline and others say more accusers are coming forward. forward; and his estate is denying it, like always. This is where people split hard. Maya: Yeah, some say "Believe victims, pull the plug." Others say "He was never convicted, stop rewriting history. David: My view, honestly, is keep the word "allegation" front and center, let courts do their thing, and let adults decide if they want to buy a ticket. Maya: Same. I do not trust studios or cancel mobs to be the moral police. I would rather have full disclosure and personal choice. David: And notice the pattern here. Whether it's writers losing health coverage, representation fights or allegations around icons, the people at the top mostly protect themselves. I mean, come on. Maya: Yeah, and everyone else is left arguing on social media while the checks still clear for the elites. David: So going into the week, watch how the WGA rank and file talk about this deal, what changes on that Prada sequel and how audiences actually respond to the Jackson movie. Maya: Because that's where the real verdict lands, not in Hollywood's press releases. David: Stay tuned, we have more on deck right after this. All right, that is our show. The big thing today was that Kushner and Witkoff Pakistan back channel. It tells you the real pressure on Iran is still dollars and oil, not polite Zoom calls. I mean, come on. Maya: Right. And if Washington forgets that, Tehran will remind them fast. So the takeaway is simple. Strength first, then talks, or you just get strung along. David: Exactly. If this helped you sort through the noise, hit follow, drop a quick review, and share it with... Start with that one friend who always argues about sanctions. Maya: Yeah, send it to them. Let us be the bad guys. New Morning Rundown in your feed tomorrow. David: Sleep fast, stay sharp, and we'll catch you in the morning.