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Welcome Back to The Checkout Point.
Imm Genuinely pumped For This one.
This is The shift Ivee been waiting years to See.
Hey, Max.
Yeah, This episode is… Honestly, Itss Kind Of wild.
And From a margins perspective, Weree talking about Numbers most brands aren't prepared
For.
So, Rachel, picture This.
Imm cooking dinner, hands covered In Flour, And I literally just asked my phone to order
olive oil.
Okay.
And?
AI found my favorite brand, compared prices, checked reviews And completed The entire purchase.
No apps.
No friction.
No thinking required.
Wait, Wait, Wait.
Just Like That?
Yeah, Yeah, Yeah.
And Thatss Exactly What Weree diving into today.
Agented Commerce isn't theoretical anymore.
Itss live.
And Itss fundamentally reshaping The game.
And Itss Not just Some future concept.
Weree talking real Numbers.
Oh, The Numbers Are wild.
I had to triple check The data myself.
AI Drove 20% Of Holiday Sales.
Thatss Nearly 2600 billion, Rachel.
20%?
Max, Thatss Way faster adoption than I expected.
From my Amazon And Walmart days, we'd be obsessing over KPIs Like That.
This is real velocity.
I know.
And Heress The thing.
Google just launched The Universal Commerce Protocol.
Which sounds very corporate.
But If Walmart And Visa Are backing It, The infrastructure Play is actually serious.
And Itss actually a massive deal.
Walmart, Shopify, Visa backing It?
Thatss The infrastructure we've been missing.
This is What prevents fragmentation.
Right.
So, Who controls The margins here?
Thatss What keeps me up at night.
Exactly.
Thatss The margin control question.
Does The brand Own positioning?
Or Does The AI just default to lowest cost?
Thatss What keeps merchants up at night.
And That margin gap is massive.
So today, Weree breaking down What The data actually shows, Whatss happening Right Now
In real time, And What merchants need to Do to Stay competitive.
Plus, Weree tackling whether consumers even want This level Of automation.
Because Ivee rage quit enough shopping carts to know People say They want Convenience.
But Do They really want invisible transactions?
Alright, Letss dive In.
This is one Of those moments where eCommerce fundamentally transforms, And The smart players
Are Already moving.
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Your question.
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Okay, Okay.
So I have to tell You about This thing That happened to me last week.
Imm literally cooking dinner, Flour All over my hands, And I realize Imm out Of olive oil.
Oh No.
So I just, I Dontt even think about It.
I ask my phone, Hey, order me olive oil.
And Heress The crazy part, Rachel, The AI finds my favorite brand, compares prices across
Like three Different stores, checks reviews, And completes The entire purchase.
No apps, No Cart, No nothing.
Wait, Wait, Wait, You didn't even Touch Your phone?
Not Once.
Flour hands The whole time.
And Thatss when It hit me.
This is Agentic Commerce.
This is The billion dollar bet.
at Shopify, Google, Microsoft Are All making Right Now.
Okay, So break This down For me.
What Exactly is Agentic Commerce?
Right, So Itss This fundamental shift.
Instead Of You shopping, Your AI shops For You.
Like, Weree Not talking about Better search results Or faster Checkout.
Weree talking about The AI being Your Personal Shopper That knows What You need, when You
need It, And just handles It.
I mean, From my operational days at Amazon And Walmart, We obsessed over Every conversion
metric, Every click, Every basis Point Of improvement.
But This is...
This is removing The clicks entirely.
Exactly.
Thatss wild.
So The AI is making purchase decisions without You even seeing The product page?
Thatss a nightmare For my KPIs.
Or Wait, those KPIs Are dead Now, aren't They?
Yeah, Yeah, Yeah.
And Heress What makes It Different.
Itss Not just automation.
The AI understands context, preferences, timing.
It knew I wanted organic olive oil, Not The cheapest option.
It compared my usual brands.
It understood me.
Thatss The level Of personalization That took me years to crack In CRO.
Okay, But Max, Imm thinking about This From a merchant perspective.
If The AI controls The transaction, Who controls The relationship?
And more importantly, Who controls The pricing leverage?
Right?
Thatss a trillion dollar question, Because suddenly The AI is The intermediary between
You And The merchant.
The customer is Not browsing Your beautiful product page, Not seeing Your branding, Not
going through That Checkout flow You obsessed over.
Which Means All That CRO work You used to Do...
Is Basically getting flipped on Its head.
I spent years hunting down friction points, testing Every button, obsessing over That
Checkout experience.
All That optimization work?
Now The AI just bypasses It entirely.
Itss wild.
So What Does This mean For retailers?
Like If Imm Still running eCommerce operations, should I be freaking out about my margins
being destroyed?
Well, Yes And No.
Heress The thing.
The shift is happening, whether retailers Are ready Or Not.
Shopify is building This into their platform.
Googless Creating The Universal Commerce Protocol.
Microsoftss integrating It.
This isn't theoretical anymore.
Wait, Universal Commerce Protocol?
Yeah, Welll get into That In a Second.
But Basically, Itss The infrastructure, The Plumbing That makes All This work.
And Itss massive.
And whoever controls The Plumbing controls The margins.
I learned That at Walmart.
Exactly.
Exactly.
So retailers have a choice.
They can either participate In This ecosystem And give up Some control, Or They get left
behind entirely.
But What about The customer experience?
I mean, Ivee rage quit So many broken shopping carts to know The system needed fixing.
But Do People actually want This level Of automation?
Or Does It start feeling creepy?
Thatss Whatss So fascinating.
Like my olive oil thing?
It didn't feel creepy Or automated.
It felt effortless.
I had a need, And It was solved.
No friction, No thinking, No 20 tabs Open comparing prices.
Okay, Okay, Imm with You.
But there's got to be trust involved, Right?
The AI has to know What You want.
Absolutely.
And Thatss where Weree at Right Now.
Early adopters testing It out.
But Once It works, Once People realize They can just talk And have their shopping handled,
Thatss The tipping Point.
So Weree literally moving From I need to buy olive oil to I need olive oil.
And The buying part just happens.
Yes, Thatss It.
Exactly.
The Commerce becomes invisible.
Thatss The shift.
And Thatss why Every major platform is scrambling to build This infrastructure Right Now.
Brings us Back to This Universal Commerce Protocol thing You mentioned.
Right, Right.
So Google, Walmart, Shopify, even Visa, Theyree All backing This Protocol.
And Itss The connective tissue That prevents Total chaos.
Because Ivee lived through This before.
Remember when Every retailer built their Own mobile Checkout?
Dontt remind me.
I watched That fragmentation nightmare From The CRO side.
Every retailer building their Own mobile Checkout.
Inflation pressure everywhere.
No standards.
Total chaos.
Exactly.
That was an absolute fragmentation nightmare.
And I watched It unfold From my CRO days.
Total mess.
UCP is designed to prevent That same chaos From happening again.
Creating standards So AI agents can talk to any retailer, any payment system, any fulfillment
network seamlessly.
Okay, So Weree talking about infrastructure.
The Plumbing That makes Agentic Commerce work.
And We know From my Walmart days That whoever controls The Plumbing controls The margins.
Yeah, Yeah, Yeah.
And whoever controls those rails, They control The future Of shopping.
Which is What Weree diving into next.
I have So many Questions about This.
Mostly about who's making money And who's getting squeezed.
Letss Go.
Okay, So Max, We just covered How AI is taking over shopping.
But Heress What keeps me up at night.
Who controls The Plumbing?
Because whoever Does controls The margins.
I learned That The hard Way at Walmart.
Oh, Rachel, Youree asking The Right question.
And Google definitely has thoughts about That.
Of course They Do.
So They just launched something called The Universal Commerce Protocol, UCP For short.
And before Your eyes glaze over at The word Protocol, hear me out.
This is Genuinely huge.
Okay, Okay.
Okay, Imm listening.
What is It?
So Basically, Itss a standardized framework That Lets AI agents talk to retailers, payment
processors And logistics providers All In one Universal language.
Instead Of Every AI building custom integrations with Every single retailer, Which is Exactly
The mess I lived through.
Which sounds Like an absolute nightmare.
I watched That happen In mobile Checkout.
Every retailer building their Own thing.
Exactly.
Itss a nightmare Ivee lived through before.
Back In my CRO days, I watched Every retailer build their Own mobile Checkout.
The fragmentation was insane.
Different buttons, Different flows, Different Everything.
Right, Right.
And The Cart abandonment was brutal.
We Were hemorrhaging customers Because nothing had standards.
Yeah, Yeah, Yeah.
Cart abandonment through The roof.
So Googless Basically saying, Letss Not Do That again.
Okay, But who's actually backing This?
Because Ivee seen Google launch things All The time That just vanish.
What makes This Different?
Fair Point.
But This one's Different.
Imm telling You.
Walmartss In.
Shopifyss In.
Visass In.
Wait, Wait, Wait.
Visa?
Visa.
The payment infrastructure player.
Hmm.
Okay.
So Thatss serious money And serious infrastructure.
Absolutely.
And Heress why Theyree All In.
Whoever controls The rails controls The margins.
You know That From Your Amazon And Walmart days, Right?
Oh, I know It painfully Well.
That was The whole game at Amazon And Walmart.
Whoever controls The Plumbing controls The margins.
Itss Not even close.
So If Google can become The standard layer between AI agents And Commerce.
They control Everything.
The data, The transactions, The relationships.
Exactly.
But hold on.
Letss talk about What This Means For real.
retailers, Because Imm thinking about This From my eCommerce manager brain, my operational brain,
And The margin implications Are terrifying. Whatss The concern? So If Imm a brand Or a retailer,
I have to make a choice, Right? Do I plug into UCP And get access to All these AI agents And
All This Convenience? Right. Or Do I Stay independent And risk getting left out entirely?
Yeah, Itss a tough trade-off. You get Convenience And reach, But Youree essentially handing over
control And, Honestly, Your margin visibility. And The margin pressure, Max. If UCP becomes The
standard, Google sets The fees. They decide Whatss Reasonable. And You know What? Reasonable For
Google is Not Reasonable For a retailer running on single-digit margins. Yeah, That math doesn't
work out. I mean, single-digit margins And Googless fees? Thatss a death spire. No, No, No. And Heress
What really bothers me. Once Youree on The Protocol, Does The brand control product positioning?
Or Does The AI just optimize For lowest cost And destroy Your brand positioning entirely?
Oof, Thatss The billion-dollar question, isn't It? Because That margin gap is massive. If The AI is
just optimizing For price, then premium brands Are Absolutely toast. And I spent years fighting
For brand positioning And Checkout flows. This is Different. Exactly. You know, I spent years In CRO
obsessing over Checkout flows, product page optimization, All Of It. The whole philosophy was
Feed The algorithm Your best stuff. Optimize The experience. But If UCP becomes The standard,
And AI agents Are making The decisions, All That work, The optimization, The testing, The strategy,
It becomes Basically invisible. Which is wild to say after spending years on It. Itss a completely
Different game. I spent years optimizing conversion rates For human behavior. This?
This is optimizing For algorithmic behavior. Thatss a Totally Different skill set. Right, Right.
Youree optimizing For algorithmic behavior. Which Means Everything I learned about CRO,
about customer psychology, about unit economics, doesn't apply anymore. But Heress The flip side
That gets me excited. If UCP actually works And prevents fragmentation, prevents That same mobile
Checkout nightmare From happening again, It Could make Commerce Way more efficient. Better data flow,
faster transactions, less friction For everyone. Sure, Sure. But efficient For Who? Google Or The
merchants trying to protect their unit economics. Touche. Look, I get why Walmart And Shopify Are In.
They have to control The infrastructure Or They get controlled by It. But Every other retailer?
Go In knowing Exactly What Youree trading. Control And margin For reach And scale. Absolutely. Itss
a trade-off. Convenience And reach versus control And margins. And Honestly, I think most People
Dontt realize What Theyree trading until Itss too late. So What happens If This actually becomes
The standard? Well, Thatss The thing. It might Already be happening Because The Holiday Numbers
just dropped. And Honestly, Imm Not even Sure How to process them. Oh No. How wild. Nearly 260 billion
dollars In eCommerce Sales. And AI was Already driving 20% Of transactions. Wait, 20% Already
In a single Holiday season? Thatss adoption velocity I did Not expect. Already. So This
shift? Itss Not theoretical anymore. This is The exact moment Ivee been waiting years to See.
Itss happening Right Now And Itss real. Okay, Okay. We need to dig into those Numbers.
Okay, So Rachel, We just talked about The infrastructure with Googless Protocol.
But Heress The thing, The Numbers Are Already In, And Theyree wild.
How wild Are We talking?
Because That number is going to shift Every KPI Imm tracking.
Like Holiday eCommerce just hit Nearly 260 billion dollars.
And Heress What blew my mind, AI Already Drove 20% Of those transactions.
Imm Not even exaggerating when I say I triple-checked The data, Like sat down with spreadsheets
And Everything, Because I Genuinely couldn't believe What I was seeing.
Wait, Wait, Wait, 20%?
Yeah, Yeah, Yeah.
I had to dig through The Numbers Because Honestly, This is The shift Ivee been waiting years
to See.
I mean, Thatss, Thatss faster adoption than I expected From my operational days.
Way faster.
We Were obsessing over basis points For 20% improvement.
This is 20% Of The entire channel In one season.
All Right, So Heress Whatss happening.
Weree Not talking theory Or future scenarios anymore.
This is live Right Now, AI agents Are actively making purchase decisions For real People
as We speak.
Okay, So From an ROI perspective, If 20% Of Holiday Sales Are Already AI driven, What
Does That mean For brands Still optimizing their old school Checkout flows?
Thatss The thing That keeps me up at night.
Youvee got entire teams Still A-B testing button colors, optimizing Checkout flows,
hunting friction, while AI agents just completely bypass All Of It.
No, seriously though, Imm thinking about my operational days at Amazon And Walmart,
And Every basis Point mattered.
We spent years catching money on fire situations In CRO.
And Now Weree talking about The entire Checkout being irrelevant?
Absolutely.
And Now The game's Totally Different.
Like If an AI agent is making The purchase decision, It doesn't care about Your beautiful
product page Or Your optimized flow.
So What Does It care about?
Well, data, Clean product data, pricing, reviews, fulfillment speed, The stuff That feeds The
algorithm.
Thatss literally What It optimizes For Now.
Forget The psychology.
It just wants Structured data It can actually parse.
Right, Right.
So brands That haven't invested In That backend infrastructure Are Basically invisible to
these AI agents.
Exactly.
Okay, But Heress What I want to dig into.
This velocity, 20% In one Holiday season.
Whatss The trajectory here?
Are We talking 50% by next year?
Honestly, Could be.
I mean, consumer adoption is The wildcard, But The data suggests People Are leaning into
This.
So why should The AI handle more purchase decisions?
Because You know, Itss convenient.
But Max, Letss talk about margin pressure.
If AI agents Are prioritizing lowest cost Or fastest delivery, What happens to premium
brands?
Because Ivee literally seen brands optimize their Way out Of profitability.
Yeah, Thatss The million dollar question.
I spent years In CRO, building brand experiences, crafting storytelling, optimizing That entire
journey.
But Now, If The AI just defaults to price Or speed, All That work, Itss Not irrelevant,
But Itss Way less powerful.
Exactly.
And From a profitability standpoint, That terrifies me.
Because If margins get compressed across The board, And brands just compete on cost, Who
actually survives with healthy unit economics?
The ones Who figure out How to optimize For AI discovery Instead Of human Checkout flows.
Itss a completely Different skill set.
Imm on both sides a little bit.
Because part Of me thinks This is overblown, And part Of me remembers rage quitting carts
when They felt too automated Or creepy.
So Do consumers really want This, Or Are We solving For Convenience while Creating trust
issues?
Thatss Fair.
But Heress The thing The data says.
Theyree Already doing It.
20% adoption In one season?
Thatss Not a test rollout.
Thatss rapid market adoption.
And Itss happening Now.
Okay, But to be Fair, Holiday shopping is high stress, high volume.
People might automate out Of desperation.
But The real question is, Does That adoption stick year-round, when They have time to
think, Or when The AI makes a choice They didn't explicitly approve?
Good question.
But Idd argue That Once People experience The Convenience, Once They let AI handle The
boring stuff, The repeat orders, The price comparisons, They Dontt Go Back.
Itss too smooth.
Yeah, Yeah.
I get It.
Ivee rage quit enough shopping carts to know The current system isn't perfect.
Exactly.
So If AI can remove That friction, People will adopt It fast.
All Right, So bottom line, brands need to wake up.
This isn't theory anymore.
Itss real data.
20% is just The starting line.
And The margin implications Are massive.
Absolutely.
And The ones Who Dontt adapt, Theyree going to get completely left behind while AI agents
just route around them.
This isn't theory.
Itss Already happening at scale.
Which brings us to The big question, Right?
The one keeping merchants up at night.
Whatss That?
Does The brand control positioning?
Or Does The AI algorithm just default to lowest unit cost?
Because That margin gap isn't just massive.
Itss The entire game.
Yeah.
And Thatss Exactly What We need to unpack next.
Okay, Max.
So We just talked about AI driving 20% Of Holiday Sales.
Thatss The reality.
But Heress Whatss keeping me up at night.
The margin implications And The KPIs.
Who actually wins In This scenario?
Whatss That?
Does The brand control product positioning?
Or Does The AI algorithm just default to lowest unit cost?
Because That margin gap isn't just massive.
Itss The entire game.
Yeah, Thatss The question, isn't It?
I mean, From my operational days at Amazon And Walmart, whoever controls The Plumbing
controls The margins.
And Right Now, I Dontt know who's In control.
Right, Right.
So Heress What Imm seeing From The CRO side.
We spent years optimizing product pages, Checkout flows, brand storytelling, All hunting For
That psychology edge.
And Now Itss All Different.
And Now?
Now?
Itss about AI discovery.
Youree optimizing For machine readability, Structured data, consistent SKU information.
Itss Like The opposite Of Everything I used to obsess over.
Wait, Wait.
So Youree saying brands need to completely change How They present products?
Yeah, Yeah, Yeah.
I mean, Your beautiful hero images And emotional copy Still matters For brand equity.
But If an AI can't parse Your product specs clearly, Youree completely invisible to The
algorithm.
Thatss wild.
So Whatss The actual ROI Play here?
And Whatss The timeline before Youree invisible If You Dontt move?
Okay, So first, Clean Your product data.
Structured.
Schema markup, clear attributes, consistent pricing.
I know, I know, Thatss The Open question.
And Honestly, We Dontt have The answer yet.
Which is terrifying For brands.
Ivee literally seen companies optimize their Way out Of profitability, chasing volume Instead
Of unit economics.
Totally.
But Heress my take.
The AIs aren't dumb.
Theyree optimizing For user satisfaction, Not just price.
You have Better reviews, faster shipping, stronger brand trust.
That compounds.
You think that'll matter?
Because From my operational days, The brands with The strongest trust signals Always outperformed
on both ROI And repeat rate.
I mean, It has to, Right?
Otherwise these agents just become glorified price comparison tools And nobody wins.
Imm on both sides a little bit.
Because Ivee rage quit So many carts when things felt too automated Or creepy.
Oh, Totally.
Like, Do consumers actually want This level Of automation?
Or Are We optimizing ourselves into something That looks Good In spreadsheets, But nobody
actually wants to use?
Thatss The wild card.
I had That olive oil moment where It felt magical.
No friction, just solved.
But I get It.
Some People would find That creepy Or invasive.
Exactly.
If The AI just starts ordering stuff without my explicit approval Every time, Thatss a
trust issue.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So there's This balance, Right?
The AI needs to be helpful without being invasive.
Thatss The whole thing.
Convenience without creepiness.
Otherwise Youree just building something People will abandon.
Brands need to figure out where They fit In That interaction.
Are They a trusted partner The AI recommends, Or just commodity inventory That gets competed
to death on price alone?
Right.
Thatss The positioning question.
And I think The brands That win Are The ones Who lean into transparency And quality signals.
Like What?
Detailed product information, verified reviews, clear return policies, The stuff That builds
algorithmic trust.
Basically, Feed The algorithm Your best content.
Thatss What Ivee Always preached.
Okay.
Okay.
That makes sense.
But Heress my concern.
Hey, Youree Not wrong.
And Honestly, I respect It.
Youvee got to be paranoid about This stuff.
I know.
But seriously, If Imm an eCommerce manager Right Now, Imm staring at my entire CRO playbook.
Every optimization Ivee done In The last decade And wondering If Imm about to become irrelevant.
Not Everything.
Humans Are Still buying The old Way, But This, This transition is happening fast And Youvee
got to optimize For both simultaneously.
So Weree optimizing For two Different shopping behaviors simultaneously, Which Means split
testing Everything, Which Means KPIs For Humans And KPIs For machines.
Exactly.
Which is annoying, But Honestly, Kind Of exciting.
This is The shift Ivee been waiting years to See.
I would say exhausting.
But Sure.
Look, I Dontt want to be too harsh, But If Youree ignoring This, Youree Already behind.
Absolutely.
So Letss recap.
Clean Your product data, optimize For AI discovery, build algorithmic trust signals, And hope
The systems reward quality And margin over pure price compression.
And keep an eye on consumer adoption.
Because If People reject
Yeah, Weree Basically In This weird liminal space where The technology is here, But The
behavior And KPIs Are Still catching up. Thatss either terrifying Or an opportunity.
Thatss a great Way to put It. And Honestly, Thatss Exactly where The opportunity is. The
brands That get ahead Right Now, before This settles, Theyree going to Own The relationship
with these AI agents.
For The brands That move fast And Dontt just default to a race to The bottom.
Yep. This is one Of those moments where doing nothing is The riskiest move. Ivee seen This
before In eCommerce. You adapt Or You get left behind.
Okay, Max, I think Thatss a wrap. This has been a wild ride From Plumbing control to
margin warfare.
Right. From Checkout flows to AI agents, What a time to be In eCommerce.
Thanks For nerding out on This with me, Because somebody needs to ask The tough Questions
about where The margins actually Go In This new world.
Always. Letss See What happens next.
Rachel, I mean, when We started This episode, I never thought we'd Go From my flower-covered
hands ordering olive oil to The actual death Of Checkout optimization. And yet, here We
Are.
Right? But Thatss The thing, Max. This isn't theoretical anymore. 20% Of Holiday Sales
driven by AI? Thatss real money. And From my operational days at Amazon And Walmart,
I know Exactly What That Means For margins.
Yeah, Yeah, Yeah. And If Youree a merchant listening Right Now, You gotta start thinking
about UCP, about product data infrastructure, about How Your brand gets discovered when
AIss doing The shopping. This is keeping It real.
Because whoever controls That positioning controls The margins. Thatss The lesson From
my eCommerce days. And Thatss What We learned today.
Exactly. So Heress The deal. If This landed For You, subscribe, leave us a review, tell
a friend who's losing sleep over Agentic Commerce. Weree just getting started with
This shift.
Which is probably everyone In eCommerce Right Now, watching their margins get compressed
In real-time.
Fair points. Alright, Thanks For nerding out on This with me. Genuinely great conversation.
See You next time at The Checkout Point, where We ask The tough Questions That matter.
Stay curious And keep optimizing.